EARLY WEEKEND UPDATE ON ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002199 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (INFO ADDEES) DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT DEPT ALSO PASS AID NSC ALSO FOR GAYLE SMITH E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/22/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: EARLY WEEKEND UPDATE ON ZIMBABWE CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) AS OF THE MORNING OF APRIL 22--ALMOST HALFWAY THROUGH THE LONG EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND - THE SITUATION IN HARARE IS FAIRLY QUIET, WITH SOME SIGNS OF LESSENING TENSIONS. HARARE IS FINE AND ROADS ARE OPEN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. MOST NOTABLY, A PEACE MARCH IN DOWNTOWN HARARE ON APRIL 21, THE GOOD FRIDAY HOLIDAY, WENT OFF WITHOUT INCIDENT. THE MARCH WAS BILLED AS A RELIGION-BASED EVENT; ITS FOCUS WAS A PLEA FOR PEACE. MARCHERS PROCEEDED UNDISRUPTED THROUGH THE DOWNTOWN AREA TO THE CENTRALLY LOCATED CATHOLIC CATHEDRAL, WHICH IS NEAR THE PARLIAMENT BUILDINGS. IT IS A POSITIVE SIGN THAT POPULAR OPINION CONTINUES TO BE IN FAVOR OF CALMING THE SITUATION AND THAT THIS OPINION IS NOT BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE GOVERNMENT. ¶2. (C) IN THE COUNTRYSIDE AS WELL THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT, AT A MINIMUM, THINGS ARE NOT GETTING WORSE. WHILE A WORRISOME STATUS QUO PREVAILS--THE FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCUPIED CONTINUE TO BE SO, THE FARMERS THAT HAVE FLED THEIR PROPERTIES ARE NOT RETURNING, FARM WORKERS ARE SUFFERING BEATINGS AND DISLOCATION, AND PROPERTY DESTRUCTION CONTINUES--WE HAVE HEARD NO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02199 221455Z REPORTS OF SERIOUS VIOLENCE. ¶3. (C) ONE MEDIA REPORT EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE POLICE HAD HELPFULLY INTERVENED AT A FARM OCCUPATION SITE. COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION HEAD TIM HENWOOD (PROTECT) TOLD US IN A TELEPHONE CONVERSATION THIS MORNING THAT THE POLICE HAD MADE SOME ATTEMPT, BUT IT WAS ONCE AGAIN A CASE OF TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE. HE EMPHASIZED THAT MEDIA REPORTS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE NUMEROUS AND SEVERE BEATINGS OF BLACK FARM WORKERS BY THE SO-CALLED 'WAR VETERANS' THAT ARE CONTINUING. HENWOOD ALSO SAID THE FUNERAL FOR MARTIN OLDS, THE SECOND FARMER TO BE KILLED, IS BEING HELD TODAY. A LARGE GATHERING OF FARMERS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENT. HENWOOD THOUGHT IT WOULD BE PEACEFUL. ¶4. (C) IT ALSO IS RELATIVELY GOOD NEWS THAT MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS RETURNED TO THE COUNTRY, HAS BEEN SIPDIS IN CONTACT WITH THE MEDIA, AND HAS NOT BEEN IMPEDED BY THE GOVERNMENT SO FAR. THE EMBASSY HAS BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SOME OF OUR MDC CONTACTS AND HAVE HEARD NOTHING FROM THEM INDICATING UNUSUAL HARASSMENT. AMBASSADOR MCDONALD HAS ARRANGED A MEETING WITH SENIOR MDC LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING TSVANGIRAI, WHICH WILL BE HELD ON APRIL ¶25. TSVANGIRAI AND OTHER LEADERS HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH THE FUNERALS OF THE RECENTLY SLAIN MDC MEMBERS, AMONG OTHER THINGS. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02199 221455Z ¶5. (U) SOME ROADBLOCKS WERE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE ROADS APPROACHING HARARE, BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY INDICATION OF AN UNUSUALLY HEAVY POLICE PRESENCE DOWNTOWN. INDEED, PEDESTRIAN AND VEHICLE TRAFFIC APPEARS LIGHTER THAN USUAL FOR A SATURDAY, WITH MANY PEOPLE MAKING THEIR TRADITIONAL VISITS TO THEIR HOMES IN THE COUNTRYSIDE OVER THE FOUR DAY WEEKEND. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL > @@@OASYS@@@ CONFIDENTIAL PTO4968 PAGE 01 HARARE 02199 220802Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NEA-00 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 SA-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /007W -------------- 4EDA10 220802Z /38 R 220806Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5814 INFO NSC WASHDC SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002199 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S SUSAN E. RICE, PDAS POWELL, DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, DESK OFFICER GURNEY, SA/INS FOR STEVE KRAFT E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/22/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: EARLY WEEKEND UPDATE ON ZIMBABWE CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) AS OF THE MORNING OF APRIL 22--ALMOST CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02199 220802Z HALFWAY THROUGH THE LONG EASTER HOLIDAY WEEKEND - THE SITUATION IN HARARE IS FAIRLY QUIET, WITH SOME SIGNS OF LESSENING TENSIONS. HARARE IS FINE AND ROADS ARE OPEN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. MOST NOTABLY, A PEACE MARCH IN DOWNTOWN HARARE ON APRIL 21, THE GOOD FRIDAY HOLIDAY, WENT OFF WITHOUT INCIDENT. THE MARCH WAS BILLED AS A RELIGION-BASED EVENT; ITS FOCUS WAS A PLEA FOR PEACE. MARCHERS PROCEEDED UNDISRUPTED THROUGH THE DOWNTOWN AREA TO THE CENTRALLY LOCATED CATHOLIC CATHEDRAL, WHICH IS NEAR THE PARLIAMENT BUILDINGS. IT IS A POSITIVE SIGN THAT POPULAR OPINION CONTINUES TO BE IN FAVOR OF CALMING THE SITUATION AND THAT THIS OPINION IS NOT BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE GOVERNMENT. ¶2. (C) IN THE COUNTRYSIDE AS WELL THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT, AT A MINIMUM, THINGS ARE NOT GETTING WORSE. WHILE A WORRISOME STATUS QUO PREVAILS--THE FARMS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCUPIED CONTINUE TO BE SO, THE FARMERS THAT HAVE FLED THEIR PROPERTIES ARE NOT RETURNING, FARM WORKERS ARE SUFFERING BEATINGS AND DISLOCATION, AND PROPERTY DESTRUCTION CONTINUES--WE HAVE HEARD NO REPORTS OF SERIOUS VIOLENCE. ¶3. (C) ONE MEDIA REPORT EARLY TODAY INDICATED THE POLICE HAD HELPFULLY INTERVENED AT A FARM OCCUPATION SITE. COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION HEAD TIM HENWOOD (PROTECT) TOLD US IN A TELEPHONE CONVERSATION THIS MORNING THAT THE POLICE HAD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02199 220802Z MADE SOME ATTEMPT, BUT IT WAS ONCE AGAIN A CASE OF TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE. HE EMPHASIZED THAT MEDIA REPORTS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON THE NUMEROUS AND SEVERE BEATINGS OF BLACK FARM WORKERS BY THE SO-CALLED 'WAR VETERANS' THAT ARE CONTINUING. HENWOOD ALSO SAID THE FUNERAL FOR MARTIN OLDS, THE SECOND FARMER TO BE KILLED, IS BEING HELD TODAY. A LARGE GATHERING OF FARMERS IS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENT. HENWOOD THOUGHT IT WOULD BE PEACEFUL. ¶4. (C) IT ALSO IS RELATIVELY GOOD NEWS THAT MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAS RETURNED TO THE COUNTRY, HAS BEEN SIPDIS IN CONTACT WITH THE MEDIA, AND HAS NOT BEEN IMPEDED BY THE GOVERNMENT SO FAR. THE EMBASSY HAS BEEN IN TOUCH WITH SOME OF OUR MDC CONTACTS AND HAVE HEARD NOTHING FROM THEM INDICATING UNUSUAL HARASSMENT. AMBASSADOR MCDONALD HAS ARRANGED A MEETING WITH SENIOR MDC LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING TSVANGIRAI, WHICH WILL BE HELD ON APRIL ¶25. TSVANGIRAI AND OTHER LEADERS HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH THE FUNERALS OF THE RECENTLY SLAIN MDC MEMBERS, AMONG OTHER THINGS. ¶5. (U) SOME ROADBLOCKS WERE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE ROADS APPROACHING HARARE, BUT WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY INDICATION OF AN UNUSUALLY HEAVY POLICE PRESENCE DOWNTOWN. INDEED, PEDESTRIAN AND VEHICLE TRAFFIC APPEARS LIGHTER THAN USUAL FOR A SATURDAY, WITH MANY PEOPLE MAKING THEIR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02199 220802Z TRADITIONAL VISITS TO THEIR HOMES IN THE COUNTRYSIDE OVER THE FOUR DAY WEEKEND. MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >