MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002197 SIPDIS PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS REF: HARARE 02164 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 01 OF 04 201632Z CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. PRESIDENT MUGABE RECENTLY HAS MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU) AND THE WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION THAT IS SPEARHEADING THE OCCUPATIONS OF FARMS, BOTH SEPARATELY AND TOGETHER. AS OF APRIL 20 IN HARARE, THE GENERAL SENSE IS THAT THE MEETINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT LESSENED THE TENSIONS IN AT LEAST SOME RURAL AREAS. AMBASSADOR MCDONALD ALSO HAS HAD SEPARATE MEETINGS WITH CFU REPRESENTATIVES, AN INDEPENDENT MEDIATOR WHO PARTICIPATED IN THE RECENT STATEHOUSE MEETINGS, AND THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER, WHO PROVIDED US A LIMITED READOUT ON THE VISIT HERE OF THE NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER. WE SEE A WILLINGNESS TO TALK AND EVEN SOME OPENNESS TO COMPROMISE, BUT WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE FARM OCCUPATIONS ARE A MEANS FOR MUGABE TO EXERCISE POLITICAL POWER, NOT AN END IN THEMSELVES. WE ARE SKEPTICAL THAT THE FARM INVASIONS WILL CEASE BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE HELD. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) IN A SERIES OF WELL-PUBLICIZED MEETINGS, PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS MET SERIALLY WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WHO HAVE SEEN MANY OF THEIR MEMBERS' PROPERTIES OVERRUN BY SQUATTERS, LEADERS OF THE WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION WHO HAVE LED THE INCURSIONS, AND THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02197 01 OF 04 201632Z TWO GROUPS TOGETHER. AFTER THEIR JOINT MEETING LAST NIGHT, I.T APPEARS THAT THE PROTAGONISTS WILL CONTINUE TO TALK AND MAY WORK TOWARD A SOLUTION, EVEN THOUGH THE OCCUPIERS WILL REMAIN ON THE FARMS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT APPEARS FOR THE MOMENT THAT THE MEETINGS MAY HAVE ABATED THE VIOLENCE THAT CLAIMED THE LIVES OF TWO FARMERS THIS WEEK. MEETING THE FARMERS ¶3. (C) OUR SERIES OF MEETINGS BEGAN ON APRIL 19, WHEN TIM HENWOOD, LEADER OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS UNION (CFU),AND THE CFU REGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, WILLIAM HUGHES (PLEASE PROTECT BOTH), MET WITH THE AMBASSADOR AT THE EMBASSY. TDY POLOFF AND ECONOFF ALSO ATTENDED. THE DISCUSSION CENTERED AROUND THE MEETING THE CFU REPRESENTATIVES HAD WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ON APRIL 17 AND THE CONDITIONS FARMERS ACROSS THE NATION ARE FACING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING FARM INVASIONS AND RECENT KILLINGS OF TWO FARMERS. ¶4. (C) HENWOOD SAID THE MEETING WITH MUGABE HAD BEEN FRANK, AND HE FELT SOME PROGRESS HAD BEEN MADE. HE ALSO WAS REALISTIC ABOUT THE DIFFICULTY OF READING MUGABE'S INTENTIONS AFTER MEETING HIM, ACKNOWLEDGING THAT MERE WORDS FROM MUGABE NEED TO BE BACKER BY ACTIONS BEFORE AN INTERLOCUTOR CAN BE SURE MUGABE IS ON COURSE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02197 01 OF 04 201632Z ¶5. (C) HENWOOD CONFIRMED TO US THAT MANY FARMERS HAVE LEFT THEIR FARMS, AND MORE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. HE DID NOT GIVE NUMBERS, BUT IMPLIED THAT THE NUMBERS WERE SUBSTANTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE KILLINGS HAVE TAKEN PLACE OR OTHER VIOLENCE HAS FLARED. HE ALSO SAID THAT THERE ARE AREAS OF THE COUNTRY IN WHICH THERE HAVE BEEN NO INVASIONS AND THINGS ARE GENERALLY PEACEFUL. WHEN ASKED, HE SAID ABOUT 40 OR 50 FARMERS HAVE SIGNED DOCUMENTS AT THE DEMAND OF THE OCCUPIERS THAT SUPPOSEDLY TRANSFER THE OWNERSHIP OF THE FARMLAND TO THE OCCUPIERS. ¶6. (C) MUCH OF THE USEFUL INFORMATION HENWOOD CONVEYED WAS ABOUT THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF THE FARM INVASIONS. IT APPEARED TO HIM THAT THE AREAS SUFFERING FROM INVASIONS WERE WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACTIONS HAD TAKEN PLACE DURING ZIMBABWE'S WAR OF LIBERATION. OFTEN THE WAR VETERANS WERE RETURNING TO THEIR FORMER AREAS OF OPERATION. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8718 PAGE 01 HARARE 02197 02 OF 04 201632Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 4E44AA 201639Z /38 R 201636Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5806 INFO NSC WASHDC USLO ABUJA SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002197 SIPDIS PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 02 OF 04 201632Z DEATH THREATS TO FARMERS WERE WIDESPREAD. THESE WERE WHAT HAD LED TO MANY OF THE FARM EVACUATIONS. THERE HAD BEEN SOME BURNING OF FARMHOUSES AND OUTBUILDINGS, INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE FULL TOBACCO STORAGE SHED NEAR HARARE THAT HAD DESTROYED THAT FARMER'S HARVEST OF TOBACCO. MOST OF THE OCCUPIED FARMS ARE BEING HELD BY ONLY A HANDFUL OF PEOPLE. A SMALL NUMBER OF FARMS HAVE LARGE NUMBERS OF OCCUPIERS. THE OCCUPIERS ARE NOT GENERALLY ARMED. MANY FARM WORKERS--WHO ARE BLACKS--HAVE BEEN BADLY BEATEN, A FACT NOT RECEIVING MUCH PRESS ATTENTION. HENWOOD SAID THE OCCUPIERS ON THE FARM OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER TO BE KILLED HAVE SINCE RETURNED TO INTIMIDATE THE WORKERS THAT REMAIN, AND HAVE BEEN WAVING BODY PARTS FROM ONE OF THE FARM WORKERS THEY HAD EARLIER ABDUCTED. ¶7. (C) HENWOOD SAID THE KILLINGS OF THE TWO FARMERS APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT. IN THE FLRST DEATH, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERS FLARED AND THINGS GOT OUT OF CONTROL. IN CONTRAST, HE SAID THE SECOND KILLING LOOKED DELIBERATE AND WELL PLANNED. IN THAT CASE, THE FARM HAD NOT BEEN OCCUPIED PRIOR TO THE KILLING, THE ATTACKERS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02197 02 OF 04 201632Z ARRIVED EARLY IN THE MORNING IN A CONVOY AND IMMEDIATELY OPENED FIRE WITH THE MANY GUNS THEY HAD BROUGHT WITH THEM. HE ALSO SAID THE ATTACKERS DID NOT SPEAK NDEBELE, THE NATIVE TONGUE IN THE REGION OF THE ATTACK. ¶8. (C) SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HENWOOD SAID THE COOPERATION FROM HIGHER LEVEL ARMY AND POLICE OFFICIALS HAD BEEN FAIRLY GOOD. WHILE ORDINARY POLICE ON THE SCENES OF THE ATTACKS HAD DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO PREVENT THEM--IN THE FIRST KILLING THE VICTIM WAS REMOVED FROM A POLICE STATION IN THE PRESENCE OF THE POLICE-SOME SPECIAL UNITS THAT HAD BEEN DISPATCHED AT HIS REQUEST BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAD COOPERATED. THEY HAD, HOWEVER, ARRIVED FAR TOO LATE TO BE OF ANY PRACTICAL USE. ¶9. (C) HENWOOD SAID THAT ALTHOUGH THE CFU WAS DOING WHAT IT COULD TO PROTECT ITS MEMBERS, THEY HAD COME TO FEEL THEY WERE A BIT PERIPHERAL TO THE HEART OF THE PROCESS, WHICH WAS A POLITICAL QUESTION. IN SO MANY WORDS, HE SAID THE LAND ISSUE WAS A POLITICAL FOOTBALL FOR MUGABE AND THE WAR VETERANS. THUS, THE CFU AND ITS MEMBERS FIND THEMSELVES IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ISSUE THEY CAN ULTIMATELY DO LITTLE TO AFFECT. ¶10. (C) HENWOOD ALSO PASSED ON SOME INFORMATION THAT SOUNDED AS IF IT HAD PARTLY BEEN GLEANED FROM SOURCES OF UNKNOWN CREDIBILITY AND PARTLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02197 02 OF 04 201632Z RESULTED FROM READINGS OF THE POLITICAL TEA LEAVES. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, HENWOOD SAID HE THOUGHT THE CABINET HAD BEEN SPLIT ABOUT 50-50 OVER THE LAND OCCUPATIONS WHEN THEY BEGAN, BUT THAT NOW MUGABE WAS NEARLY THE LAST REMAINING DEFENDER OF THEM. HE THOUGHT THIS EXPLAINED THE WIDE SPLIT BETWEEN VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA AND PRESIDENT MUGABE OVER ENFORCING THE LATEST COURT JUDGMENT ORDERING THE GOVERNMENT TO END THE OCCUPATIONS. HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY THAT MUGABE APPROVED MSIKA'S STATEMENT AND THEN CONTRADICTED HIM. MEETING THE MIDDLEMAN ¶11. (C) LATER ON APRIL 19, WE MET WITH FATHER FIDELIS, A CATHOLIC PRIEST WHO HAD ATTENDED THE APRIL 17 MUGABE-CFU MEETING IN THE SOMEWHAT HAZILY DEFINED ROLE OF MEDIATOR OR FACILITATOR. HE IS WELL KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY AND WE HAVE A POSITIVE VIEW OF HIM. FR. FIDELIS AGREED WITH HENWOOD THAT THE MEETING HAD BEEN RELAXED AND FRANK. IT WAS APPARENTLY A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8720 PAGE 01 HARARE 02197 03 OF 04 201632Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W -------------- 4E44BA 201639Z /38 R 201636Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5807 INFO NSC WASHDC USLO ABUJA SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002197 SIPDIS PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS BOTH SIDES TO AT LEAST AIR THEIR VIEWS. AFTER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 03 OF 04 201632Z COMPARING THE READOUT FR. FIDELIS HAD OF THE CFU REACTION TO THE MEETING WITH THE REACTION THE CFU HAD GIVEN DIRECTLY TO US, HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT SURE THE SIDES WERE LISTENING AS WELL AS TALKING. ¶12. (C) FR. FIDELIS THOUGHT THE EXPLANATION MUGABE HAD GIVEN TO THE FARMERS ABOUT THE ORIGINS OF THE LAND PROBLEM IN THE BRITISH COLONIAL PERIOD HAD PRODUCED REAL UNDERSTANDING ON THE FARMERS' PART OF MUGABE'S MOTIVATION. THE CFU CHARACTERIZED THIS PART OF THEIR TALKS WITH MUGABE AS A REPLAY OF A BROKEN RECORD. FR. FIDELIS ALSO CLAIMED THE CFU DELEGATION HAD TOLD MUGABE THEY NOW REALIZE THE "NO" VOTE ON THE RECENT CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM HAD BEEN A MISTAKE--SOMETHING WE FIND HARD TO BELIEVE. ¶13. (C) FR. FIDELIS WAS EVASIVE ON GIVING AN OPINION ON SOME IMPORTANT ISSUES, SUCH AS WHERE THE WAR VETERANS ARE GETTING THEIR VEHICLES AND WEAPONS, BUT HE DID HAVE INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS ON SOME OTHER ISSUES. FOR EXAMPLE, HE HAS BEEN DEALING WITH THE WAR VETS AND THE LAND TAKEOVER ISSUE FOR SEVERAL YEARS BUT SAID IT WAS POINTLESS TO TALK WITH THE VETERANS' LEADER, "HITLER" HUNZVI. HE CHARACTERIZED HUNZVI AS "NOT A SOLUTION MAN." HE ALSO SAID THAT WHILE THERE WERE SOME LOGICAL ANSWERS TO SOME OF THE VEXING ISSUES IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL TANGLE, THEY WERE OF LITTLE USE BECAUSE EMOTIONS HAVE COME TO THE FORE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02197 03 OF 04 201632Z THE NIGERIAN READOUT ¶14. (C) ON APRIL 20 THE AMBASSADOR HAD AN INITIAL MEETING WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVED NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER, B.W. JUTA, THAT FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE NIGERIAN VIEWS OF THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION AND THE JUST-CONCLUDED VISIT OF NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO TO PRESIDENT MUGABE. ¶15. (C) COMMISSIONER JUTA SAID PRESIDENT OBASANJO HAD DECIDED TO SEND HIS FM AS SOON AS HE HEARD OF THE DEATH OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER, AND THAT IT WAS THE VIOLENCE SURROUNDING THE LAND ISSUE THAT MOST CONCERNED OBASANJO. JUTA DID NOT PROVIDE A DETAILED READOUT OF THE LAMIDO-MUGABE MEETING, BUT SAID THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM THE NIGERIAN SIDE WAS THEIR CONCERN OVER VIOLENCE AND THE APPEARANCE THAT LAW AND ORDER WAS BREAKING DOWN. THE MESSAGE THEY TOOK FROM MUGABE WAS THAT THE SITUATION WAS NOW UNDER CONTROL, HE REGRETTED THE DEATHS, AND THAT HE WAS SENDING A HIGH LEVEL DELEGATION TO THE APRIL 27 TALKS WITH GREAT BRITAIN. THE NIGERIANS APPEAR TO VIEW THE DIRECT ZIMBABWE-BRITAIN TALKS AS AN IMPORTANT OPPORTUNITY TO CALM THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE. ¶16. (C) IN RESPONSE TO AMBASSADOR MCDONALD'S OBSERVATION THAT THE ROOTS OF THE CURRENT PROBLEMS LAY IN THE POLITICS OF ZIMBABWE, AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 02197 03 OF 04 201632Z THAT THAT IS WHERE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST HELP ZIMBABWEANS LOOK FOR SOLUTIONS, JUTA DEMURRED. HE SAID NIGERIA VIEWED ALL QUESTION OF ZIMBABWEAN POLITICS AS AN INTERNAL MATTER, AND THAT NIGERIA SOUGHT TO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS ONLY OVER THE LAND ISSUE, ESPECIALLY INSOFAR AS IT COMBUSTS INTO VIOLENCE. COMMENT ¶17. (C) ZIMBABWE AT THE MOMENT IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF CHURCHILL'S AXIOM THAT JAW-JAW IS BETTER THAN WAR-WAR. IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT, IF ANY, REAL RESOLUTION TO THE LAND PROBLEM WILL COME FROM TALKS BETWEEN THE WAR VETERANS, THE FARMERS, AND PRESIDENT MUGABE. HAVING FAILED IN THE PREVIOUS TWENTY YEARS TO ARRIVE AT A LASTING SOLUTION, IT IS UNLIKELY THEY WILL DO SO NOW. INDEED, POLITICS SEEMS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW. NONETHELESS, TALK IS PREFERABLE TO THE DEATHS, INTIMIDATION, AND POPULATION FLIGHT THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8722 PAGE 01 HARARE 02197 04 OF 04 201633Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W -------------- 4E44C0 201639Z /38 R 201636Z APR 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5808 INFO NSC WASHDC USLO ABUJA SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002197 SIPDIS PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN, AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS ¶18. (C) OUR FOCUS MUST BE UPON THE PRACTICAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 04 OF 04 201633Z AND ACHIEVABLE. WE BELIEVE OUR PROPOSED HIGH- LEVEL APPROACH TO MUGABE (REFTEL),AIMED AT MAKING HIM REALIZE HIS LEADERSHIP OBLIGATIONS AS HEAD OF GOVERNMENT, IS CURRENTLY THE BEST MEANS FOR US TO ASSIST IN ZIMBABWE. WE ARE DEVELOPING TALKING POINTS THAT CAN BE USED FOR THIS INITIATIVE. WE AGREE WITH THE THEME OF "HOW CAN WE HELP." IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE FARMERS AND MUGABE CAN FIND SOME ACCOMMODATION WITH ONE ANOTHER, EVEN WHILE REMAINING DIVIDED ON FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES OF HISTORICAL INJUSTICE AND THE OBLIGATIONS PAST GENERATIONS CAN IMPOSE ON THE PRESENT. AFTER ALL, UNTIL THE RECENT SPATE OF LAND OCCUPATIONS THEY APPEARED TO HAVE FOUND A WORKABLE PROCESS THROUGH THE RESULTS OF THE LAND CONFERENCE OF 1998. SUCH AN ACCOMMODATION, HOWEVER, WILL DEPEND ON POLITICAL GOODWILL ON BOTH SIDES, SOMETHING THAT MUGABE AT LEAST HAS LACKED IN THE RECENT CRISIS. ¶19. (C) WE MUST BE ALERT TO THE CHANCE THAT MUGABE IS NOT CONCERNED WITH THE LAND ISSUE PER SE, BUT SEES IT MERELY AS A TOOL FOR FOMENTING DISORDER. SOME OBSERVERS HERE BELIEVE THAT MUGABE'S REAL AIM IS TO CREATE ENOUGH DISORDER TO JUSTIFY IMPOSING A STATE OF EMERGENCY THAT WILL ALLOW HIM TO CANCEL THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION. THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY A REAL POSSIBILITY. THAT IS WHY ENGAGEMENT FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF OUR GOVERNMENT WITH MUGABE IS CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 02197 04 OF 04 201633Z MCDONALD CONFIDENTIAL >