MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO CONTROL FARM CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 002197

SIPDIS

PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN,
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI
SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO
CONTROL FARM CRISIS

REF: HARARE 02164
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PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 01 OF 04 201632Z

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5
(B),(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. PRESIDENT MUGABE RECENTLY HAS
MET WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL
FARMERS UNION (CFU) AND THE WAR VETERANS
ASSOCIATION THAT IS SPEARHEADING THE OCCUPATIONS
OF FARMS, BOTH SEPARATELY AND TOGETHER. AS OF
APRIL 20 IN HARARE, THE GENERAL SENSE IS THAT THE
MEETINGS HAVE SOMEWHAT LESSENED THE TENSIONS IN
AT LEAST SOME RURAL AREAS. AMBASSADOR MCDONALD
ALSO HAS HAD SEPARATE MEETINGS WITH CFU
REPRESENTATIVES, AN INDEPENDENT MEDIATOR WHO
PARTICIPATED IN THE RECENT STATEHOUSE MEETINGS,
AND THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER, WHO PROVIDED
US A LIMITED READOUT ON THE VISIT HERE OF THE
NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER. WE SEE A WILLINGNESS
TO TALK AND EVEN SOME OPENNESS TO COMPROMISE, BUT
WE ALSO BELIEVE THAT THE FARM OCCUPATIONS ARE A
MEANS FOR MUGABE TO EXERCISE POLITICAL POWER, NOT
AN END IN THEMSELVES. WE ARE SKEPTICAL THAT THE
FARM INVASIONS WILL CEASE BEFORE ELECTIONS ARE
HELD. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) IN A SERIES OF WELL-PUBLICIZED MEETINGS,
PRESIDENT MUGABE HAS MET SERIALLY WITH
REPRESENTATIVES OF THE COMMERCIAL FARMERS WHO
HAVE SEEN MANY OF THEIR MEMBERS' PROPERTIES
OVERRUN BY SQUATTERS, LEADERS OF THE WAR VETERANS
ASSOCIATION WHO HAVE LED THE INCURSIONS, AND THE
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TWO GROUPS TOGETHER. AFTER THEIR JOINT MEETING
LAST NIGHT, I.T APPEARS THAT THE PROTAGONISTS WILL
CONTINUE TO TALK AND MAY WORK TOWARD A SOLUTION,
EVEN THOUGH THE OCCUPIERS WILL REMAIN ON THE
FARMS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT APPEARS FOR
THE MOMENT THAT THE MEETINGS MAY HAVE ABATED THE
VIOLENCE THAT CLAIMED THE LIVES OF TWO FARMERS
THIS WEEK.

MEETING THE FARMERS


3. (C) OUR SERIES OF MEETINGS BEGAN ON APRIL 19,
WHEN TIM HENWOOD, LEADER OF THE COMMERCIAL
FARMERS UNION (CFU),AND THE CFU REGIONAL VICE
PRESIDENT, WILLIAM HUGHES (PLEASE PROTECT BOTH),
MET WITH THE AMBASSADOR AT THE EMBASSY. TDY
POLOFF AND ECONOFF ALSO ATTENDED. THE DISCUSSION
CENTERED AROUND THE MEETING THE CFU
REPRESENTATIVES HAD WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE ON
APRIL 17 AND THE CONDITIONS FARMERS ACROSS THE
NATION ARE FACING IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING FARM
INVASIONS AND RECENT KILLINGS OF TWO FARMERS.


4. (C) HENWOOD SAID THE MEETING WITH MUGABE HAD
BEEN FRANK, AND HE FELT SOME PROGRESS HAD BEEN
MADE. HE ALSO WAS REALISTIC ABOUT THE DIFFICULTY
OF READING MUGABE'S INTENTIONS AFTER MEETING HIM,
ACKNOWLEDGING THAT MERE WORDS FROM MUGABE NEED TO
BE BACKER BY ACTIONS BEFORE AN INTERLOCUTOR CAN
BE SURE MUGABE IS ON COURSE.

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5. (C) HENWOOD CONFIRMED TO US THAT MANY
FARMERS HAVE LEFT THEIR FARMS, AND MORE ARE IN
THE PROCESS OF DOING SO. HE DID NOT GIVE
NUMBERS, BUT IMPLIED THAT THE NUMBERS WERE
SUBSTANTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE
KILLINGS HAVE TAKEN PLACE OR OTHER VIOLENCE HAS
FLARED. HE ALSO SAID THAT THERE ARE AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY IN WHICH THERE HAVE BEEN NO INVASIONS
AND THINGS ARE GENERALLY PEACEFUL. WHEN ASKED,
HE SAID ABOUT 40 OR 50 FARMERS HAVE SIGNED
DOCUMENTS AT THE DEMAND OF THE OCCUPIERS THAT
SUPPOSEDLY TRANSFER THE OWNERSHIP OF THE FARMLAND
TO THE OCCUPIERS.


6. (C) MUCH OF THE USEFUL INFORMATION HENWOOD
CONVEYED WAS ABOUT THE NATURE AND SCOPE OF THE
FARM INVASIONS.

IT APPEARED TO HIM THAT THE AREAS SUFFERING
FROM INVASIONS WERE WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACTIONS HAD
TAKEN PLACE DURING ZIMBABWE'S WAR OF LIBERATION.
OFTEN THE WAR VETERANS WERE RETURNING TO THEIR
FORMER AREAS OF OPERATION.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02
G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 4E44AA 201639Z /38
R 201636Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5806
INFO NSC WASHDC
USLO ABUJA
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 HARARE 002197

SIPDIS

PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN,
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO
CONTROL FARM CRISIS

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PAGE 02 HARARE 02197 02 OF 04 201632Z
DEATH THREATS TO FARMERS WERE WIDESPREAD.

THESE WERE WHAT HAD LED TO MANY OF THE FARM
EVACUATIONS.

THERE HAD BEEN SOME BURNING OF FARMHOUSES AND
OUTBUILDINGS, INCLUDING AT LEAST ONE FULL TOBACCO
STORAGE SHED NEAR HARARE THAT HAD DESTROYED THAT
FARMER'S HARVEST OF TOBACCO.

MOST OF THE OCCUPIED FARMS ARE BEING HELD BY
ONLY A HANDFUL OF PEOPLE. A SMALL NUMBER OF
FARMS HAVE LARGE NUMBERS OF OCCUPIERS.

THE OCCUPIERS ARE NOT GENERALLY ARMED.

MANY FARM WORKERS--WHO ARE BLACKS--HAVE BEEN
BADLY BEATEN, A FACT NOT RECEIVING MUCH PRESS
ATTENTION. HENWOOD SAID THE OCCUPIERS ON THE
FARM OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER TO BE KILLED HAVE
SINCE RETURNED TO INTIMIDATE THE WORKERS THAT
REMAIN, AND HAVE BEEN WAVING BODY PARTS FROM ONE
OF THE FARM WORKERS THEY HAD EARLIER ABDUCTED.


7. (C) HENWOOD SAID THE KILLINGS OF THE TWO
FARMERS APPEAR QUITE DIFFERENT. IN THE FLRST
DEATH, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERS FLARED AND THINGS
GOT OUT OF CONTROL. IN CONTRAST, HE SAID THE
SECOND KILLING LOOKED DELIBERATE AND WELL
PLANNED. IN THAT CASE, THE FARM HAD NOT BEEN
OCCUPIED PRIOR TO THE KILLING, THE ATTACKERS
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ARRIVED EARLY IN THE MORNING IN A CONVOY AND
IMMEDIATELY OPENED FIRE WITH THE MANY GUNS THEY
HAD BROUGHT WITH THEM. HE ALSO SAID THE
ATTACKERS DID NOT SPEAK NDEBELE, THE NATIVE
TONGUE IN THE REGION OF THE ATTACK.


8. (C) SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HENWOOD SAID THE
COOPERATION FROM HIGHER LEVEL ARMY AND POLICE
OFFICIALS HAD BEEN FAIRLY GOOD. WHILE ORDINARY
POLICE ON THE SCENES OF THE ATTACKS HAD DONE
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO PREVENT THEM--IN THE FIRST
KILLING THE VICTIM WAS REMOVED FROM A POLICE
STATION IN THE PRESENCE OF THE POLICE-SOME
SPECIAL UNITS THAT HAD BEEN DISPATCHED AT HIS
REQUEST BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS HAD COOPERATED.
THEY HAD, HOWEVER, ARRIVED FAR TOO LATE TO BE OF
ANY PRACTICAL USE.


9. (C) HENWOOD SAID THAT ALTHOUGH THE CFU WAS
DOING WHAT IT COULD TO PROTECT ITS MEMBERS, THEY
HAD COME TO FEEL THEY WERE A BIT PERIPHERAL TO
THE HEART OF THE PROCESS, WHICH WAS A POLITICAL
QUESTION. IN SO MANY WORDS, HE SAID THE LAND
ISSUE WAS A POLITICAL FOOTBALL FOR MUGABE AND THE
WAR VETERANS. THUS, THE CFU AND ITS MEMBERS FIND
THEMSELVES IN THE MIDDLE OF AN ISSUE THEY CAN
ULTIMATELY DO LITTLE TO AFFECT.


10. (C) HENWOOD ALSO PASSED ON SOME INFORMATION
THAT SOUNDED AS IF IT HAD PARTLY BEEN GLEANED
FROM SOURCES OF UNKNOWN CREDIBILITY AND PARTLY
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RESULTED FROM READINGS OF THE POLITICAL TEA
LEAVES. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, HENWOOD SAID HE
THOUGHT THE CABINET HAD BEEN SPLIT ABOUT 50-50
OVER THE LAND OCCUPATIONS WHEN THEY BEGAN, BUT
THAT NOW MUGABE WAS NEARLY THE LAST REMAINING
DEFENDER OF THEM. HE THOUGHT THIS EXPLAINED THE
WIDE SPLIT BETWEEN VICE PRESIDENT MSIKA AND
PRESIDENT MUGABE OVER ENFORCING THE LATEST COURT
JUDGMENT ORDERING THE GOVERNMENT TO END THE
OCCUPATIONS. HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY
THAT MUGABE APPROVED MSIKA'S STATEMENT AND THEN
CONTRADICTED HIM.

MEETING THE MIDDLEMAN


11. (C) LATER ON APRIL 19, WE MET WITH FATHER
FIDELIS, A CATHOLIC PRIEST WHO HAD ATTENDED THE
APRIL 17 MUGABE-CFU MEETING IN THE SOMEWHAT
HAZILY DEFINED ROLE OF MEDIATOR OR FACILITATOR.
HE IS WELL KNOWN TO THE EMBASSY AND WE HAVE A
POSITIVE VIEW OF HIM. FR. FIDELIS AGREED WITH
HENWOOD THAT THE MEETING HAD BEEN RELAXED AND
FRANK. IT WAS APPARENTLY A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00
P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02
G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 4E44BA 201639Z /38
R 201636Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5807
INFO NSC WASHDC
USLO ABUJA
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 HARARE 002197

SIPDIS

PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN,
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO
CONTROL FARM CRISIS

BOTH SIDES TO AT LEAST AIR THEIR VIEWS. AFTER
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COMPARING THE READOUT FR. FIDELIS HAD OF THE CFU
REACTION TO THE MEETING WITH THE REACTION THE CFU
HAD GIVEN DIRECTLY TO US, HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT
SURE THE SIDES WERE LISTENING AS WELL AS TALKING.


12. (C) FR. FIDELIS THOUGHT THE EXPLANATION
MUGABE HAD GIVEN TO THE FARMERS ABOUT THE ORIGINS
OF THE LAND PROBLEM IN THE BRITISH COLONIAL
PERIOD HAD PRODUCED REAL UNDERSTANDING ON THE
FARMERS' PART OF MUGABE'S MOTIVATION. THE CFU
CHARACTERIZED THIS PART OF THEIR TALKS WITH
MUGABE AS A REPLAY OF A BROKEN RECORD. FR.
FIDELIS ALSO CLAIMED THE CFU DELEGATION HAD TOLD
MUGABE THEY NOW REALIZE THE "NO" VOTE ON THE
RECENT CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM HAD BEEN A
MISTAKE--SOMETHING WE FIND HARD TO BELIEVE.


13. (C) FR. FIDELIS WAS EVASIVE ON GIVING AN
OPINION ON SOME IMPORTANT ISSUES, SUCH AS WHERE
THE WAR VETERANS ARE GETTING THEIR VEHICLES AND
WEAPONS, BUT HE DID HAVE INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS
ON SOME OTHER ISSUES. FOR EXAMPLE, HE HAS BEEN
DEALING WITH THE WAR VETS AND THE LAND TAKEOVER
ISSUE FOR SEVERAL YEARS BUT SAID IT WAS POINTLESS
TO TALK WITH THE VETERANS' LEADER, "HITLER"
HUNZVI. HE CHARACTERIZED HUNZVI AS "NOT A
SOLUTION MAN." HE ALSO SAID THAT WHILE THERE
WERE SOME LOGICAL ANSWERS TO SOME OF THE VEXING
ISSUES IN THE CURRENT POLITICAL TANGLE, THEY WERE
OF LITTLE USE BECAUSE EMOTIONS HAVE COME TO THE
FORE.
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THE NIGERIAN READOUT


14. (C) ON APRIL 20 THE AMBASSADOR HAD AN
INITIAL MEETING WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVED NIGERIAN
HIGH COMMISSIONER, B.W. JUTA, THAT FOCUSED MAINLY
ON THE NIGERIAN VIEWS OF THE CURRENT POLITICAL
SITUATION AND THE JUST-CONCLUDED VISIT OF
NIGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAMIDO TO PRESIDENT
MUGABE.


15. (C) COMMISSIONER JUTA SAID PRESIDENT
OBASANJO HAD DECIDED TO SEND HIS FM AS SOON AS HE
HEARD OF THE DEATH OF THE FIRST WHITE FARMER, AND
THAT IT WAS THE VIOLENCE SURROUNDING THE LAND
ISSUE THAT MOST CONCERNED OBASANJO. JUTA DID NOT
PROVIDE A DETAILED READOUT OF THE LAMIDO-MUGABE
MEETING, BUT SAID THE MOST IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM
THE NIGERIAN SIDE WAS THEIR CONCERN OVER VIOLENCE
AND THE APPEARANCE THAT LAW AND ORDER WAS
BREAKING DOWN. THE MESSAGE THEY TOOK FROM MUGABE
WAS THAT THE SITUATION WAS NOW UNDER CONTROL, HE
REGRETTED THE DEATHS, AND THAT HE WAS SENDING A
HIGH LEVEL DELEGATION TO THE APRIL 27 TALKS WITH
GREAT BRITAIN. THE NIGERIANS APPEAR TO VIEW THE
DIRECT ZIMBABWE-BRITAIN TALKS AS AN IMPORTANT
OPPORTUNITY TO CALM THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.


16. (C) IN RESPONSE TO AMBASSADOR MCDONALD'S
OBSERVATION THAT THE ROOTS OF THE CURRENT
PROBLEMS LAY IN THE POLITICS OF ZIMBABWE, AND
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PAGE 04 HARARE 02197 03 OF 04 201632Z
THAT THAT IS WHERE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
MUST HELP ZIMBABWEANS LOOK FOR SOLUTIONS, JUTA
DEMURRED. HE SAID NIGERIA VIEWED ALL QUESTION OF
ZIMBABWEAN POLITICS AS AN INTERNAL MATTER, AND
THAT NIGERIA SOUGHT TO EXPRESS THEIR VIEWS ONLY
OVER THE LAND ISSUE, ESPECIALLY INSOFAR AS IT
COMBUSTS INTO VIOLENCE.

COMMENT


17. (C) ZIMBABWE AT THE MOMENT IS A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF CHURCHILL'S AXIOM THAT JAW-JAW IS
BETTER THAN WAR-WAR. IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT, IF ANY,
REAL RESOLUTION TO THE LAND PROBLEM WILL COME
FROM TALKS BETWEEN THE WAR VETERANS, THE FARMERS,
AND PRESIDENT MUGABE. HAVING FAILED IN THE
PREVIOUS TWENTY YEARS TO ARRIVE AT A LASTING
SOLUTION, IT IS UNLIKELY THEY WILL DO SO NOW.
INDEED, POLITICS SEEMS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW.
NONETHELESS, TALK IS PREFERABLE TO THE DEATHS,
INTIMIDATION, AND POPULATION FLIGHT THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00
EUR-01 VC-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00
DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /009W
-------------- 4E44C0 201639Z /38
R 201636Z APR 00
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 5808
INFO NSC WASHDC
USLO ABUJA
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 HARARE 002197

SIPDIS

PARIS PLEASE PASS TO A/S SUSAN E. RICE

DEPARTMENT FOR AF PDAS POWELL, AF DAS SCHNEIDMAN,
AF/S DIRECTOR RENDER, AF/S DESK OFFICER GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/20/10
TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI

SUBJECT: MUGABE MEETS PROTAGONISTS IN ATTEMPT TO
CONTROL FARM CRISIS


18. (C) OUR FOCUS MUST BE UPON THE PRACTICAL
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AND ACHIEVABLE. WE BELIEVE OUR PROPOSED HIGH-
LEVEL APPROACH TO MUGABE (REFTEL),AIMED AT
MAKING HIM REALIZE HIS LEADERSHIP OBLIGATIONS AS
HEAD OF GOVERNMENT, IS CURRENTLY THE BEST MEANS
FOR US TO ASSIST IN ZIMBABWE. WE ARE DEVELOPING
TALKING POINTS THAT CAN BE USED FOR THIS
INITIATIVE. WE AGREE WITH THE THEME OF "HOW CAN
WE HELP." IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THE FARMERS AND
MUGABE CAN FIND SOME ACCOMMODATION WITH ONE
ANOTHER, EVEN WHILE REMAINING DIVIDED ON
FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES OF HISTORICAL INJUSTICE AND
THE OBLIGATIONS PAST GENERATIONS CAN IMPOSE ON
THE PRESENT. AFTER ALL, UNTIL THE RECENT SPATE
OF LAND OCCUPATIONS THEY APPEARED TO HAVE FOUND A
WORKABLE PROCESS THROUGH THE RESULTS OF THE LAND
CONFERENCE OF 1998. SUCH AN ACCOMMODATION,
HOWEVER, WILL DEPEND ON POLITICAL GOODWILL ON
BOTH SIDES, SOMETHING THAT MUGABE AT LEAST HAS
LACKED IN THE RECENT CRISIS.


19. (C) WE MUST BE ALERT TO THE CHANCE THAT
MUGABE IS NOT CONCERNED WITH THE LAND ISSUE PER
SE, BUT SEES IT MERELY AS A TOOL FOR FOMENTING
DISORDER. SOME OBSERVERS HERE BELIEVE THAT
MUGABE'S REAL AIM IS TO CREATE ENOUGH DISORDER TO
JUSTIFY IMPOSING A STATE OF EMERGENCY THAT WILL
ALLOW HIM TO CANCEL THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION.
THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY A REAL POSSIBILITY.
THAT IS WHY ENGAGEMENT FROM THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF
OUR GOVERNMENT WITH MUGABE IS CRITICAL AT THIS
TIME.
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MCDONALD

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