NOTES FROM SECDEF VISIT TO VIETNAM: PM KHAI TENSE, ANXIOUS TO DELIVER MESSAGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 000765 SIPDIS STATE ALSO FOR EAP/BCLTV, EB, INR/EAP/SEA, INR/B NSC FOR RAVIC HUSO SECDEF FOR ISA/EAP/LSTERN E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/04/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR ECON PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: NOTES FROM SECDEF VISIT TO VIETNAM: PM KHAI TENSE, ANXIOUS TO DELIVER MESSAGE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 00765 131006Z REF: A) HANOI 686 B) HANOI 548 C) HANOI 530 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DCM DENNIS HARTER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶2. (C) REFTELS HAVE REPORTED EXTENSIVELY ON THE VISIT OF SECRETARY OF DEFENSE COHEN TO VIETNAM, WHICH PROVIDED A SIPDIS STRONG BOOST TO BILATERAL RELATIONS. ONE INTERESTING SIDEBAR TO HIS VISIT WAS THE ON-AGAIN, OFF-AGAIN MEETING WITH THE PRIME MINISTER, PHAN VAN KHAI. A MEETING WITH KHAI WAS PART OF THE ORIGINAL PROGRAM PROPOSED BY THE GVN AND REQUESTED BY THE U.S. THE VIETNAMESE, THROUGH THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (MOD),PROPOSED A MEETING TIME THAT CONFLICTED WITH THE JTF SITE VISIT (ARRANGED UNILATERALLY BY THE U.S. SIDE),AND SECDEF STAFF CUT THE MEETING FROM THE SCHEDULE BECAUSE OF THE CONFLICT. THEN THE PM'S OFFICE CALLED DCM SAYING "THE PRIME MINISTER WANTS THE MEETING." DCM AND PM'S OFFICE WORKED TO FIND OTHER TIMES BEFORE AND AFTER LUNCH, AND EVENTUALLY A MUTUALLY AGREEABLE TIME WAS ARRANGED. (PM WAS EN ROUTE HCMC THE EVENING OF THAT DAY OR EARLY THE NEXT DAY. THE PM COULD NOT MEET EARLIER BECAUSE OF A CABINET MEETING AT LUNCH, AND SO THE U.S. SIDE SQUEEZED ITS AFTERNOON SCHEDULE.) ¶3. (C) PRESSING FOR A MEETING AT THE LAST MINUTE LIKE THIS IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THE VIETNAMESE. THE GVN, OR THE PRIME MINISTER HQSELF, MAY HAVE QLT HE "NEEDED" TO MEET SECDEF IN ORDER TO GIVE THE APPROPRIATE CACHET FOR THE VISIT. IN ADDITION, THE PRIME MINISTER LIKELY WAS "DELIVERING A MESSAGE" TO THE USG. INTERESTINGLY, MOD DID NOT WANT TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00765 131006Z INVOLVE ITSELF IN RE-SCHEDULING THE PM'S MEETING. EXTERNAL RELATIONS AT MOD WAS ANGRY THAT THE PM'S OFFICE HAD CONTACTED THE EMBASSY DIRECTLY. UNTIL A FEW HOURS BEFORE, THE MEETING HAD NOT BEEN OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED AND PLACED ON THE SCHEDULE. THE PM AND MOD OFFICES WERE COORDINATING WHETHER THE MEETING WOULD TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. (NOTE: PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU DID NOT ACCEPT SECDEF'S PROPOSAL FOR A MEETING. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) AS NOTED REF A, THERE WERE A COUPLE OF POINTED MESSAGES THAT PRIME MINISTER KHAI DIRECTED TO SECDEF COHEN. ON THE ONE HAND, WHEN DISCUSSING THE BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT (BTA),KHAI MADE A CLEAR POINT OF SAYING VIETNAM CANNOT COMPETE WITH OTHER COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE U.S. HE SAID THAT, WITHIN THE BTA NEGOTIATIONS, THERE MUST BE PROVISIONS THAT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT "THE REALITY THAT VIETNAM IS AN UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRY." KHAI ALSO MADE A PITCH FOR INCREASED ASSISTANCE TO VIETNAM. LATER IN THE CONVERSATION, KHAI ECHOED THESE THEMES, CLAIMING THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION WOULD INCREASE THE NUMBER OF POOR PEOPLE. KHAI SAID VIETNAM RECOGNIZES GLOBALIZATION IS "THE INTERNATIONAL TENDENCY, WHICH WE CANNOT AVOID." BUT HE SAID EACH COUNTRY NEEDS TO CHOOSE ITS OWN APPROACH TO DEVELOP ITSELF AND RAISE LIVING STANDARDS. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: KHAI, WHO IS ONE OF THE LEADING TECHNOCRATS/REFORMISTS IN THE VIETNAMESE LEADERSHIP, HAS BEEN ON THE DEFENSIVE IN RECENT MONTHS, AND THERE IS SPECULATION HE MIGHT BE REPLACED AT THE NEXT PARTY CONGRESS IN EARLY 2001. IN HIS MEETING WITH SECDEF COHEN, KHAI LOOKED DRAWN AND TENSE, LESS ANIMATED THAN USUAL -- THOUGH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00765 131006Z HE IS HARDLY CHARISMATIC ON HIS BEST DAYS. KHAI MADE A DELIBERATE POINT OF ADDRESSING SEVERAL POINTED MESSAGES, SAYING TWICE THAT HE WANTED BOTH THE SECRETARY AND THE AMBASSADOR TO NOTE HIS WORDS. KHAI MAY FEEL UNDER PRESSURE FROM MORE CONSERVATIVE AND IDEOLOGICAL ELEMENTS IN THE LEADERSHIP, AND HIS DELIVERY OF THESE MESSAGES TO SECDEF MAY REFLECT THAT. END COMMENT. PETERSON CONFIDENTIAL