PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: USAMA BIN LADIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 000495

USIA

FOR NEA, I/GNEA
STATE FOR SA/PAB, D, PA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/09
TAGS: PREL, PTER, KISL, PK, AF
SUBJECT: PUBLIC DIPLOMACY: USAMA BIN LADIN

REF: PESHAWAR 031


1. CLASSIFIED BY PUBLIC DIPLOMACY COUNSELOR
RICHARD HOAGLAND FOR REASONS 1.5(D)

2. (C) SUMMARY: IT IS OUR IMPRESSION THAT
THE USG IS NOT DOING AS WELL AS IT MIGHT
PROJECTING PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ON USAMA BIN
LADIN (UBL). WE WOULD LIKE TO SUGGEST THAT
WASHINGTON CONSIDER A REVIEW OF THIS PUBLIC
DIPLOMACY EFFORT. END SUMMARY.

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PUBLIC OPINION TRENDS
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2. (C) WE NOTE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC OPINION
TRENDS:

-- THE PRO-TALIBAN AL-RASHID TRUST IN
KARACHI CONTINUES TO CHURN OUT PRO-UBL -- AND
CORRESPONDINGLY ANTI-U.S./ANTI-WESTERN --
BOOKS, NEWSPAPERS, MAGAZINES, AND POSTERS IN
URDU, ENGLISH, AND AFGHAN LANGUAGES AT
NOMINAL COST OR FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION. E.G.,
THE TRUST RECENTLY INTRODUCED A 3' X 2' FOUR-
COLOR PRO-UBL POSTER WITH PHOTOS, MAPS, AND
IDEOLOGICAL TEXTS AVAILABLE FOR 15 RUPEES,
ABOUT 30 CENTS -- JUST A BIT MORE THAN THE
COST OF A SIDEWALK HAIRCUT. THIS POSTER BEAT
THE USG'S UBL "WANTED" POSTER TO THE STREET.

-- WE FREQUENTLY HEAR REPORTS THAT SOME IN
THE LOWER-MIDDLE AND LOWER CLASSES, BOTH
URBAN AND RURAL, CONSIDER UBL AN ISLAMIC HERO
BECAUSE THE U.S. HAS NAMED HIM "PUBLIC ENEMY
NUMBER ONE." THAT SAID, IT'S OUR IMPRESSION
THAT THE MAJORITY OF MUSLIMS, AT LEAST IN
PAKISTAN, DO NOT NECESSARILY SUPPORT THIS
VIEW. THE PENDING USG DISTRIBUTION OF UBL
"WANTED" POSTERS AND MATCHBOOKS IN PAKISTAN
MAY INCREASE UBL'S STATURE AS A KIND OF FOLK
HERO.

-- U.S. AND BRITISH EFFORTS TO DISTINGUISH
BETWEEN TERRORISTS, LIKE BIN LADIN, AND "GOOD
MUSLIMS" ARE SOMETIMES PORTRAYED IN THE MEDIA
AND BY RELIGIOUS FIGURES IN THEIR WRITINGS
AND SERMONS AS ATTEMPTS TO DIVIDE ALL MUSLIMS
BY CO-OPTING WESTERNIZED -- MEANING (TO THEM)
"MORALLY CORRUPT" -- MODERATES. (NOTE: THIS
REPRESENTS THE PHILOSOPHICALLY ROMANTIC VIEW
THAT ISLAM PER SE ERASES ALL DIVISIONS, THAT
THE MUSLIM UMMAH IS "ONE," AND THAT AN ATTACK
ON ONE IS AN ATTACK ON ALL. END NOTE.)

-- IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THEIR ORDINARY
EXECRABLE PUBLIC RELATIONS PERFORMANCE ON THE
BIN LADEN QUESTION, THE TALIBAN HAVE PRE-
EMPTED US CONSISTENTLY SINCE AUGUST, FIRST BY
ANNOUNCING THEIR WILLINGNESS TO HAVE
AFGHANISTAN;S SUPREME COURT EXAMINE THE
CHARGES AGAINST BIN LADIN AND THEN BY
ANNOUNCING THAT NO "EVIDENCE" (BY WHICH THEY
MEANT HARD FACTS IN PROOF OF THE CHARGES) HAD
BEEN PRESENTED. OUR RESPONSE IN EACH CASE
WAS MUTED AND DELAYED. CONTINUING THIS TREND
ON THE TALIBAN'S PART, EARLY IN JANUARY, THE
TALIBAN SPONSORED A SEMINAR IN KABUL,
REPORTED BY RADIO SHARIA, ON THE LIFE, TIMES,
AND THOUGHTS OF UBL (REFTEL).


-- ACCORDING TO RECENT PRESS REPORTS,
PAKISTANI TALIBS WHO HAVE SERVED IN
AFGHANISTAN, ALONG WITH AFGHAN TALIBS, ARE
BEGINNING TO ENFORCE THEIR DOGMAS AND SOCIAL
CONTROLS IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL TERRITORIES AND
IN SOME PLACES IN BALOCHISTAN AND NWFP
PROVINCES. ALSO, LAST WEEK, THE GOP ENFORCED
ISLAMIC LAW BY DECREE IN MALAKAND DIVISION
AND IN A PART OF KOHISTAN. ALTHOUGH THESE
DEVELOPMENTS ARE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AS YET,
THEY SUGGEST A DISTURBING TREND. INDEED, THE
FIFTEENTH AMENDMENT TO THE PAKISTANI
CONSTITUTION ESTABLISHING SHARIA AS THE
SUPREME LAW OF PAKISTAN -- AN AVOWEDLY HIGH
PRIORITY OF THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT --
HAS BEEN PASSED BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND
IS PENDING BEFORE THE SENATE.

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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?
--------------

4. (C) WE ARE UNLIKELY EVER TO MAKE MUCH
INROAD WITH UBL'S HARD-CORE SUPPORTERS
BECAUSE THEY ARE TRUE-BELIEVER ABSOLUTISTS
AND TEND TO THINK AND REACT LARGELY
EMOTIONALLY: FACTS ARE LESS IMPORTANT TO
THEM THAN EMOTIONS. THEY ARE NOT OPEN TO
PERSUASION. FURTHER, WE FACE A FORMIDABLE
FOE AMONG THOSE WHO ARE CHURNING OUT AND
WIDELY DISSEMINATING PRO-UBL PROPAGANDA AND
TAKING OTHER ACTIVE MEASURES.

5. (C) HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A
LARGE MIDDLE GROUND, IN PAKISTAN AND IN
AFGHANISTAN, WHICH IS NOT AUTOMATICALLY ANTI-
U.S./ANTI-WESTERN AND WHICH IS NOT
IDEOLOGICALLY COMMITTED TO UBL AND HIS PAN-
ISLAMIST REVOLUTION. THIS MIDDLE GROUND,
SOMEWHAT SUSCEPTIBLE TO REASON, OR AT LEAST
TO OTHER INFORMATION, SHOULD BE OUR PRIMARY
TARGET. THE MESSAGE CRAFTED FOR THEM WOULD
ALSO BE WELCOMED BY THE EDUCATED, WESTWARD-
LOOKING ELITE OF BOTH PAKISTAN AND
AFGHANISTAN WHO FEEL THREATENED BY UBL'S
ADVOCACY OF VIOLENCE AND THEOLOGICAL
OBSCURANTISM.

6. (C) THE FOCUS OF ANY ENHANCED USG PUBLIC
DIPLOMACY EFFORT SHOULD BE TO PORTRAY UBL AND
OTHERS AROUND HIM AS CRIMINALS, BOTH BY
INTERNATIONAL AND BY ISLAMIC STANDARDS.
WHERE POSSIBLE, RESPONSIBILITY OF THE
MOVEMENT "AL-QAIDA" SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED, NOT
JUST UBL AS AN INDIVIDUAL.

-- WHEN WE FOCUS ON BIN LADIN, AND
ESPECIALLY FOR AFGHAN CONSUMPTION, WE SHOULD
MAKE THREE POINTS: 1) THE U.S. IS NOT
AGAINST AFGHANISTAN AND THE AFGHAN PEOPLE, 2)
THE U.S. IS NOT AGAINST ANY PARTICULAR AFGHAN
POLITICAL FACTION, AND 3) THE U.S. WANTS UBL
EXPELLED FROM AFGHANISTAN TO A PLACE WHERE HE
CAN BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE.

-- THE BROADER PUBLIC DIPLOMACY EFFORT COULD
INCLUDE, TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, A "CHARGE
SHEET" OF THE CRIMES COMMITTED BY UBL, BY HIS
CLOSEST ASSOCIATES, AND BY HIS FOLLOWERS,
NOTING THE FACT THAT MANY OF THEIR VICTIMS
HAVE BEEN MUSLIMS OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES.

-- RECOGNIZING THE NEED TO PROTECT SOURCES
AND METHODS AND NOT TO COMPROMISE ON-GOING
INVESTIGATIONS AND JUDICIAL PROCESSES, WE
SHOULD BE FORTHCOMING TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT
POSSIBLE ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE NAIROBI AND
DAR ES SALAAM BOMBINGS, AS WELL AS ABOUT
UBL'S AND HIS MOVEMENT'S OTHER CRIMES.

-- THIS INTENSIFIED PUBLIC DIPLOMACY EFFORT
SHOULD ALSO INCLUDE VALIDATION FROM ISLAMIC
SOURCES THAT THESE CRIMES ARE INDEED
RECOGNIZED AS CRIMES UNDER ISLAM. RATHER
THAN STATEMENTS BY U.S.- OR UK-BASED ISLAMIC
SCHOLARS, IT WOULD BE MORE EFFECTIVE TO USE
THE TEACHINGS AND PUBLIC STATEMENTS OF MAJOR
ISLAMIC SCHOLARS AND RELIGIOUS LEADERS FROM
SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND ELSEWHERE. IN
SELECTING/ELICITING SUCH CITATIONS, IT SHOULD
BE KEPT IN MIND THAT UBL AND THE PAN-
ISLAMISTS DISMISS SAUDI ARABIA AND EGYPT AS
ONLY NOMINALLY ISLAMIC STATES CAPTIVE TO
U.S.-TOADYING, DESPOTIC, AND APOSTATE LEADERS.

-- KEEPING IN MIND THAT IN HIS DECEMBER 23
INTERVIEW UBL JUSTIFIED KILLING MUSLIMS IN
HIS JIHAD AGAINST "CRUSADERS AND JEWS," AND
RECOGNIZING THE EMOTIONAL ASPECT OF OUR
TARGET AUDIENCE, WE SHOULD PREPARE FOR
DISSEMINATION MORE HUMAN INTEREST STORIES OF
UBL'S VICTIMS, ESPECIALLY HIS MUSLIM VICTIMS
OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES. U.S. MEDIA REPORTS
OF BLINDED KENYANS, FOR EXAMPLE, RECEIVED
GOOD COVERAGE IN THE PAKISTANI PRINT MEDIA.

7. (7) EFFECTIVE METHODS WOULD NATURALLY
INCLUDE THE TRADITIONAL USG PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
TOOLS: VOA LANGUAGE SERVICES, INCLUDING
INTERVIEWS WITH UBL'S MUSLIM VICTIMS;
CAREFULLY TARGETED WORLDNET INTERACTIVES;
WIRELESS-FILE TEXTS AND FACT SHEETS FOR
TRANSLATION INTO LOCAL LANGUAGES; AND
COMMISSIONED ARTICLES FOR PRESS PLACEMENT.

8. (C) CONSIDERATION COULD ALSO BE GIVEN TO
PRODUCTION OF A BOOKLET IN LOCAL LANGUAGES ON
THE CRIMES OF BIN LADIN AND HIS ASSOCIATES,
ALONG WITH VICTIMS' STORIES, FOR NON-
CONVENTIONAL DISTRIBUTION IN MOSQUES,
MADRASSAS, ISLAMIC STUDY CENTERS, ISLAMIA
DEPARTMENTS OF UNIVERSITIES, AND BOOKSTORES.

9. (C) A NON-USG-IDENTIFIED WEB SITE COULD
ALSO BE CREATED TO POST THE ABOVE MATERIAL
AND THE URL WIDELY DISTRIBUTED. ALTHOUGH
THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE COUNTER-INTUITIVE --
THAT THE MASSES DON'T USE THE INTERNET --
ALMOST ALL ISLAMIC AND ISLAMIST GROUPS DO
INDEED HAVE INTERNET ACCESS AND USE IT
EXTENSIVELY.


HOAGLAND