Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
99CARACAS811
1999-03-16 23:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: COOLER HEADS PREVAIL

Tags:  PREL PBTS PINS PTER CO VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
O 162326Z MAR 99
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3417
INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 
AMEMBASSY PANAMA 
AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 
AMEMBASSY QUITO 
AMEMBASSY LIMA 
USCINCSO MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000811 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/16/09
TAGS: PREL PBTS PINS PTER CO VE

SUBJECT: COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: COOLER HEADS PREVAIL

REFS: (A) BOGOTA 02179, (B) CARACAS 0778, (C) BOGOTA 2604


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOHN F. MAISTO. REASON: 1.5 (D).

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000811

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/16/09
TAGS: PREL PBTS PINS PTER CO VE

SUBJECT: COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA: COOLER HEADS PREVAIL

REFS: (A) BOGOTA 02179, (B) CARACAS 0778, (C) BOGOTA 2604


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR JOHN F. MAISTO. REASON: 1.5 (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) THE DIPLOMATIC FLAP BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA
PROVOKED BY PRESIDENT CHAVEZ'S MARCH 10 PRESS CONFERENCE COMMENT
IS OVER. VENEZUELAN FOREIGN MINISTER RANGEL AND HIS COLOMBIAN
COUNTERPART HAVE WORKED HARD TO RESOLVE THE INCIDENT AND TO FOCUS
AGAIN ON THE TASK AT HAND: MANAGING A COMPLEX BILATERAL RELA-
TIONSHIP IN A WAY WHICH PROMOTES THE COLOMBIAN PEACE PROCESS AND
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT VALID VENEZUELAN BORDER SECURITY CONCERNS.
WHILE WORRISOME, THE INCIDENT DOES NOT PRESAGE AN INCREASE IN
TENSION BETWEEN BOTH COUNTRIES. NEITHER SIDE IS LOOKING FOR A
FIGHT. THE INCIDENT DOES, HOWEVER, SHOW THE FARC'S ABILITY TO
MANIPULATE LINGERING DOUBTS AND HISTORIC ANIMOSITIES BETWEEN BOTH
COUNTRIES TO THE FARC'S ADVANTAGE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WE HAVE
A SPECIAL ROLE TO PLAY TO HELP BUILD CONFIDENCE AND TO DEFINE
ROLES AS VENEZUELA SEEKS TO ENGAGE POSITIVELY IN THE COLOMBIAN
PEACE PROCESS. END SUMMARY.

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YESTERDAY'S NEWS
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2. (C) REFS A AND B INDICATE THAT THE DIPLOMATIC FLAP PROVOKED
BY PRESIDENT CHAVEZ'S MARCH 10 PRESS CONFERENCE REMARKS IS OVER.
VENEZUELAN FOREIGN MINISTER RANGEL, ON MARCH 11, DECLARED THE
INCIDENT "TRANSITORY AND CIRCUMSTANTIAL" AND "WELL ON ITS WAY TO
BEING RESOLVED." ACCORDING TO REF A, COLOMBIAN FOREIGN MINISTER
FERNANDEZ DE SOTO, ON MARCH 12, SAID THE "DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN
FULLY RESOLVED." COLOMBIA'S AMBASSADOR TO VENEZUELA
LUIS GUILLERMO GIRALDO, ON MARCH 15, TOLD AMBASSADOR, "THE
INCIDENT IS OVER."

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NEXT STEPS
--------------


3. (C) HARD WORK BY RANGEL AND FERNANDEZ DE SOTO HAS PUT THIS
FLAP BEHIND BOTH COUNTRIES, AND FOCUSED ATTENTION WHERE IT SHOULD
BE: MANAGING A COMPLEX BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP IN A WAY WHICH
PROMOTES THE COLOMBIAN PEACE PROCESS WHILE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
VALID VENEZUELAN BORDER SECURITY CONCERNS. THE NEXT STEP IN THIS
PROCESS, ACCORDING TO RANGEL, WILL BE A MEETING, AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE, OF FOREIGN MINISTERS. THIS MEETING WILL SET THE STAGE

FOR A MEETING BETWEEN CHAVEZ AND PASTRANA. FROM OUR CONVERSA-
TIONS WITH RANGEL AND GIRALDO, BOTH SIDES RECOGNIZE THAT THIS
PRESIDENTIAL MEETING MUST BE VERY CAREFULLY HANDLED. GIRALDO
TOLD US THAT THE COMMUNIQUE AND PRESS CONFERENCES WHICH WOULD
RESULT FROM SUCH A MEETING WOULD REQUIRE SPECIAL ATTENTION, AS
THE MEDIA WILL BE PROBING FOR ANY SIGN OF DISAGREEMENT OR DIS-
PUTE.

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WHAT THE FLAP DOES NOT MEAN
--------------


4. (C) AS THE COLOMBIANS AND THE VENEZUELANS PUT THIS ASPECT OF
THEIR RELATIONSHIP BACK ON TRACK, IT IS WORTHWHILE LOOKING AT
WHAT THE FLAP DOES NOT MEAN AND, THEN, AT WHAT IT DOES MEAN.
SPECIFICALLY, THE FLAP DOES NOT MEAN:

-- AN INCREASE IN OVERALL TENSION IN THE RELATIONSHIP. THE
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA RELATIONSHIP IS SOLIDLY FIXED IN A TIGHTLY
WOVEN LATTICE OF COMMERCIAL, CULTURAL, ECOLOGICAL, AND MIGRATION
PATTERNS AND RELATIONSHIPS. THIS FOUNDATION HAS WEATHERED FAR
WORSE TEMPESTS THAN THE RECENT FLAP.

-- A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR BORDER INCIDENTS, ESPECIALLY IN
REGARD TO MARITIME BOUNDARIES. NEITHER COUNTRY IS LOOKING FOR A
FIGHT. BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE BUILT AN IMPRESSIVE POLITICAL BUFFER
OF BINATIONAL COMMISSIONS AND STUDY GROUPS TO ADDRESS ALL THESE
ISSUES, AND TO MANAGE THEM IN A LOW KEY AND REGULAR FASHION.
FURTHERMORE, AT AN OPERATIONAL LEVEL, THE MILITARIES OF BOTH
COUNTRIES HAVE GOOD WORKING RELATIONSHIPS ALONG THE FRONTIER, AS
GENERAL WILHELM SAW DURING HIS VISIT LAST OCTOBER. MOREOVER, WE
UNDERSTAND THAT THE CURRENT VENEZUELAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP HAS
OPTIMAL RELATIONS WITH THEIR COLOMBIAN COUNTERPARTS. REGULAR
REPORTING ON INFORMAL INTELLIGENCE-SHARING ARRANGEMENTS BETWEEN
BORDER UNITS, VENEZUELAN EXTRACTION AND INSERTION ASSISTANCE TO
COLOMBIAN UNITS, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF PROCEDURES TO MANAGE
CROSS-BORDER PURSUIT AND OTHER INCIDENTS FAR OUTWEIGH PRESS
REPORTS OF ONE ARMY OR THE OTHER DEFILING THE TERRITORY OF THE
NEIGHBORING COUNTRY.

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WHAT IT DOES MEAN
--------------


5. (C) WHAT THE FLAP DOES MEAN:

-- CHAVEZ TALKS TOO MUCH. AS WE NOTED IN REF B, CHAVEZ NEEDS TO
CULTIVATE SOME DISCRETION WHEN TALKING ABOUT THE COLOMBIAN PEACE
PROCESS. FOREIGN MINISTER RANGEL, DEFENSE MINISTER, AND OTHERS
AROUND CHAVEZ RECOGNIZE THIS. THEY HAVE TOLD HIM TO MEASURE HIS
WORDS. THAT SAID, CHAVEZ IS TALKING TO THE VENEZUELAN PEOPLE
ABOUT THE CONFLICT IN COLOMBIA, AND ITS IMPACT ON VENEZUELA, IN
AN OPEN AND TRANSPARENT WAY. NO PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT HAS DONE
THIS. THE CALDERA GOVERNMENT MANAGED A TWO-TRACK POLICY OF
PUBLICLY DEALING WITH THE GOC WHILE SECRETLY TREATING WITH THE
GUERRILLAS. CHAVEZ HAS BROUGHT THIS RELATIONSHIP OUT INTO THE
OPEN, AND, IN THE PROCESS, TRIED TO ESTABLISH SOME ACCOUNTABILITY
ON THE PART OF THE GUERRILLAS FOR THEIR ACTIONS IN VENEZUELAN
TERRITORY.

-- VENEZUELA IS ASSERTING ITS INTEREST IN THE COLOMBIAN PEACE
PROCESS. WHETHER RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, VENEZUELANS PERCEIVE THAT
THE GOC IS NOT REALLY INTERESTED IN WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE
VENEZUELAN SIDE OF THE FRONTIER. VENEZUELANS TELL ALL WHO WILL
LISTEN THAT THEIRS IS THE ONLY COUNTRY IN THE REGION WHICH WOULD
LIKE TO SEE LARGE CONCENTRATIONS OF NEIGHBORING TROOPS ON THE
BORDER. WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THE GOC IS HARD-PRESSED JUST TO
MAINTAIN THE SECURITY OF MAJOR CITIES AND ECONOMIC CENTERS, THE
GOV RESENTS THAT BORDER SECURITY HAS DEVOLVED ALMOST SOLELY TO
THE VENEZUELAN ARMED FORCES. IN THIS REGARD, THE COLOMBIAN PEACE
PROCESS IS NOT SIMPLY AN INTERNAL AFFAIR OF COLOMBIA.

-- THE COLOMBIAN PEACE PROCESS IS MORE COMPLICATED THAN THE GOV
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THE GOV HAS HAD A RING-SIDE SEAT SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE INSURGENCY, AND HAS WATCHED WITH FASCINATED
HORROR WHILE COLOMBIANS SLAUGHTERED EACH OTHER, IT ENTERED THE
PEACE PROCESS AS AN INGENUE. CHAVEZ THOUGHT HIS PERSONAL RELA-
TIONSHIP WITH PASTRANA WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SECURE THE TRUST OF THE
GOC, AND THAT HIS BOLIVARIAN RHETORIC AND THE CONNECTION OF SOME
OF HIS POLITICAL ALLIES TO THE GUERRILLAS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO WIN
THEIR COLLABORATION. HE DID NOT ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH SIDES OF
THE COLOMBIAN CONFLICT WOULD VIEW WITH SUSPICION AND DISTRUST HIS
BARGING INTO THE PEACE PROCESS. HE ALSO DID NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
ELEMENTS OF BOTH SIDES WOULD LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO EXCLUDE
HIM FROM THE PROCESS. FOLLOWING THE EVENTS OF THE PAST TWO
WEEKS--SPECIFICALLY, THE KILLING OF THE THREE U.S. CITIZENS AND
THE PASTRANA MEETING POSTPONEMENT--CHAVEZ AND HIS GOVERNMENT
LEARNED AN IMPORTANT LESSON. AS RANGEL TOLD US (REF B),THEY ARE
NOW REFLECTING ON THEIR ROLE IN THAT PROCESS.

-- THE GUERRILLAS ARE CAPABLE OF MANIPULATING LINGERING SUSPI-
CIONS AND HISTORIC ANIMOSITIES BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
THE FARC AND THE ELN ARE THE ONLY ONES WHO BENEFIT FROM THE
RECENT FLAP. BY TRYING TO PLAY ONE COUNTRY OFF AGAINST THE
OTHER, THEY SEEK TO CREATE DIVISIONS AMONG THE PROTAGONISTS OF
PEACE. AS RANGEL TOLD US, THE GOV VIEWS THE RECENT GUT-WRENCHING
BRUTALITY OF THE EXECUTION OF THE THREE U.S. CITIZENS AS JUST
SUCH A PROVOCATION, DESIGNED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AND DOUBTS AMONG
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA, AND THE THIRD PLAYER IN THE PEACE PRO-
CESS: THE U.S.

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WHAT WE MUST DO
--------------


6. (C) THE VENEZUELANS HAVE REACHED OUT TO US AND REQUESTED OUR
HELP IN EVALUATING RECENT EVENTS AND IN DEFINING THEIR ROLE IN
THE PEACE PROCESS. WE SHOULD RESPOND QUICKLY AND POSITIVELY TO
THIS REQUEST. AS AMEMBASSY BOGOTA NOTES IN REF A, COOLER HEADS
HAVE PREVAILED IN THIS MOST RECENT INCIDENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT
THE ANTAGONISTS IN THIS DRAMA ARE THE FARC AND THE ELN, WE CAN
EXPECT MORE PROVOCATIONS.


MAISTO