SAUDI ARABIA: BEDOUIN LORE ON CROWN PRINCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RIYADH 000879


DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ARP
CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/08
TAGS: PGOV PINR SA
SUBJECT: SAUDI ARABIA: BEDOUIN LORE ON CROWN PRINCE
ABDULLAH'S TRIBAL POWER BASE

REF: RIYADH 730



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION THEODORE KATTOUF.
REASON: 1.5 (B).


2. (C) SUMMARY: ACCORDING TO MEMBERS OF THE ANAYZA TRIBE, CROWN
PRINCE ABDULLAH'S PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF POWER LIES IN THE SHAMMAR AND
ANAYZA TRIBES. HE HAS MARRIED INTO BOTH TRIBES, DRAWS ON THEM FOR
THE MAJORITY OF HIS NATIONAL GUARDSMEN, AND HAS PREVIOUSLY RELIED
ON THEM TO PRESERVE HIS COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD IN THE FACE
OF AN INTRA-FAMILY EFFORT TO DEPRIVE HIM OF IT. WHETHER TRUE OR
NOT, THESE COMMENTS REFLECT THE POPULAR LORE UNDERLYING MUCH OF
ABDULLAH'S POLITICAL APPEAL TO THE SAUDI PUBLIC. END SUMMARY.

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TALKING ABOUT ABDULLAH
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3. (C) POLOFF SPENT A RECENT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MEMBERS
OF THE LEADING FAMILY OF THE SUBAIE, ONE OF THE FOUR PRINCIPAL
SUBTRIBES OF THE ANAYZA--FIRST IN THE HOME OF A FAMILY MEMBER AND
THEN IN THE FAMILY TENT. GATHERED IN THE TENT THAT EVENING WERE
THREE OF THE TRIBAL SHEIKH'S BROTHERS, THREE OF HIS FIRST COUSINS
(TWO OF WHOM ARE U.S.-EDUCATED),NUMEROUS MORE DISTANT COUSINS,
VARIOUS TRIBAL RETAINERS, AND A VISITING SHEIKH OF ANOTHER TRIBE.
THEY CHATTED, SIPPED TEA, AND PLAYED CARDS.


4. (C) IN ADDITION TO CONFIRMING THE WIDELY HELD BELIEF THAT
CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH IS THE LEAST CORRUPT OR "CLEANEST" OF THE
SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY, THE CONVERSATION REVEALED THE
GREAT EXTENT TO WHICH THESE TRIBESMEN BELIEVE--NO DOUBT TO AN
EXAGGERATED EXTENT--THAT ABDULLAH'S POWER BASE LIES IN HIS TRIBAL
TIES.

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ABDULLAH'S TWO MAIN TRIBES
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5. (C) SPECIFICALLY, THE CONVERSATION BROUGHT OUT THE FOLLOWING
BELIEFS. ABDULLAH'S TWO MAIN TRIBAL SUPPORTERS ARE THE SHAMMAR--
HIS MOTHER'S TRIBE--AND THE ANAYZA. BOTH ARE LARGE, HISTORICALLY
POWERFUL NORTHERN TRIBES. HE HAS TWICE MARRIED INTO EACH TRIBE,
THEREBY CEMENTING HIS EXISTING TIES TO THE SHAMMAR (THROUGH HIS
MOTHER, A SHAMMAR) OR FORGING NEW ONES TO THE ANAYZA. AS COMMANDER
OF THE NATIONAL GUARD, ABDULLAH HAS DRAWN PRIMARILY ON THESE TWO
TRIBES. OUR SOURCE ESTIMATES THAT SIXTY TO SIXTY-FIVE PERCENT OF
THE ACTIVE NATIONAL GUARD ARE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA TRIBESMEN.

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SAVING HIS COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD
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6. (C) ONE MAN TOLD THE FOLLOWING STORY TO ILLUSTRATE THE
SUPPOSED SUPPORT ABDULLAH RECEIVES FROM THE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA
TRIBES. DURING THE TIME OF KING FAYSAL (D. 1975),CERTAIN FACTIONS
OF THE ROYAL FAMILY WERE CONCERNED THAT ABDULLAH WAS GROWING TOO
POWERFUL AND WANTED TO TAKE THE NATIONAL GUARD AWAY FROM HIM AND
PUT HIM IN CHARGE OF A LESS POWERFUL GOVERNMENT ENTITY. WHEN
ABDULLAH WAS IN THE NORTH VISITING THE TRIBES, HE LET THEM KNOW
THAT HE WAS UPSET BY THE PROSPECT OF LOSING COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL
GUARD. ON THE ADVICE OF THE TRIBAL SHEIKHS, ABDULLAH PUT THE
NATIONAL GUARD ON MANEUVERS AND REMAINED IN THE NORTH WITH THE
TRIBES. IN NO TIME, KEY MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY STARTED ASKING
WHY THE NATIONAL GUARD WAS ON MANEUVERS, WHERE ABDULLAH WAS, AND
WHO HE WAS WITH. WHEN THEY LEARNED HE WAS IN THE NORTH WITH
SHEIKHS OF THE SHAMMAR AND ANAYZA TRIBES, THEY UNDERSTOOD THE WILL
OF THE TRIBES AND GOT WORD TO ABDULLAH THAT HE WOULD REMAIN IN
COMMAND OF THE NATIONAL GUARD.


7. (C) COMMENT: ALTHOUGH SELF-GRATIFYING AND NO DOUBT
EXAGGERATED--IF NOT ALTOGETHER APOCRYPHAL--THE STATISTICS AND STORY
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE TRIBESMEN BELIEVE THAT A
SYMBIOTIC RELATIONSHIP BINDS ABDULLAH AND THE TRIBES AND THAT HE IS
THEIR MAN IN THE GOVERNMENT. REFTEL DESCRIBES THE GENERAL
IMPORTANCE OF TRIBAL SUPPORT TO THE AL SAUD. END COMMENT.

FOWLER