INDIAN REACTION TO PAKISTAN'S MISSILE TEST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002879

DEPARTMENT FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR TUELLER
RABAT FOR USREY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/03
TAGS: PARM MARR PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN REACTION TO PAKISTAN'S MISSILE TEST

REF: ISLAMABAD 2617

CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL BY NEW DELHI POLITICAL
COUNSELOR ERIC TUNIS, REASON 1.5 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: INDIAN OFFICIAL REACTION TO
PAKISTAN'S RECENT FLIGHT TEST OF THE GHAURI BALLISTIC
MISSILE (REFTEL) HAS BEEN MEASURED THUS FAR. THE NEWS
OF THE PAKISTANI MISSILE TEST RAN SECOND TO THE
CORONATION OF SONIA GANDHI AS THE NEW LEADER OF THE
CONGRESS PARTY IN MOST NEWSPAPERS ON APRIL 7. DEFENSE
MINISTER GEORGE FERNANDES GAVE A COOL AND DELIBERATE
STATEMENT TO A PRESS CONFERENCE IN NEW DELHI ON THE
EVENING OF APRIL 6, NOTING THAT INDIA HAD PRIOR
INFORMATION OF THE TEST. FERNANDES DREW A DISTINCTION
BETWEEN TEST FIRING OF THE MISSILE AND PRODUCTION, BUT
HE AVOIDED ANY COMMENT ON INDIA'S AGNI MISSILE PROGRAM.
THE DIRECTOR FOR DISARMAMENT AND SECURITY AFFAIRS
(DISA) IN THE MINISTRY OF EXTERNAL AFFAIRS CONFIRMED
THAT THERE HAD BEEN A RECENT SENIOR INTERAGENCY MEETING
TO DISCUSS INDIA'S RESPONSE TO THE MISSILE TEST. END
SUMMARY

PROMINENT COVERAGE--BUT RELATIVELY MILD REACTION
-------------- ---

2. (U) INDIAN NEWSPAPERS AND TELEVISION PROVIDED
EXTENSIVE BUT NOT INFLAMMATORY COVERAGE OF THE RECENT
TEST OF PAKISTAN'S GHAURI BALLISTIC MISSILE. MOST OF
THE PRESS STORIES DREW HEAVILY FROM INFORMATION
RELEASED PUBLICLY BY PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY AS
WELL AS THEIR OWN DECIDEDLY INDIAN ACCOUNT OF FACTS,
SUCH AS THE TIMES OF INDIA CLAIM THAT THE TEST WAS
CARRIED OUT AT THE KAHUTA NUCLEAR RESEARCH LABORATORY.
THIS EVENT HAS PROVIDED ANOTHER FORUM FOR PROMINENT
HAWKS IN THE MEDIA--SUCH AS IDSA'S DIRECTOR JASJIT
SINGH--TO RENEW CALLS FOR INDIA'S DEVELOPMENT OF THE
AGNI BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM. OTHER COMMENTATORS HAVE
ALSO PORTRAYED THE GHAURI MISSILE TEST AS CONCLUSIVE
PROOF THAT THE U.S. HAS FAILED TO STOP COOPERATION
BETWEEN CHINA AND PAKISTAN IN BALLISTIC MISSILE
TECHNOLOGY. INDEED, MUCH OF THE INDIAN PUBLIC AND
PRIVATE THINKING SEEMS TO REFLECT THE INHERENT DISDAIN
FOR PAKISTAN'S SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY, OF WHICH BRAHMIN
HINDUS ARE CONVINCED COULD NOT PRODUCE SUCH A MISSILE
INDEPENDENTLY.


3. (U) DEFENSE MINISTER GEORGE FERNANDES WAS THE
GOI'S MAIN SPOKESMAN FOR THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT ON THIS
ISSUE. IN A PRESS CONFERENCE APRIL 6, HE MADE THE
FOLLOWING POINTS:

-- INDIA'S OWN MISSILE PROGRAM IS CONTINUING.
PRITHVI MISSILES ARE CAPABLE OF REACHING ANYWHERE IN
PAKISTAN;

-- INDIA HAD PRIOR WARNING THAT ISLAMABAD HAD BEEN
PREPARING TO TEST A MEDIUM-RANGE MISSILE; HE DESCRIBED
THE TEST AS NOT UNEXPECTED BUT OF A SERIOUS NATURE,
ALTHOUGH INDIA AND PAKISTAN ARE NOT IN A WAR-LIKE
SITUATION;

-- THERE IS A DISTINCTION BETWEEN TESTING AND
PRODUCTION; AND

-- IT IS UP TO THE UNITED STATES TO FIND OUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN SINO-PAKISTANI MISSILE COOPERATION DESPITE
THE EXISTENCE OF MULTILATERAL CONTROL REGIMES.


SOME INSIGHTS FROM MEA
--------------

4. (C) POLOFF MET WITH AJIT KUMAR, DIRECTOR FOR
DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS IN THE
MINISTRY FOR EXTERNAL AFFAIRS, ON APRIL 7 (SEE SEPTEL
FOR A DISCUSSION OF CWC ISSUES). KUMAR CONFIRMED THAT
SENIOR INDIAN OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL MINISTRIES HAD MET
SEVERAL DAYS AGO TO CONSIDER THE SITUATION REGARDING
THE GHAURI MISSILE TEST. KUMAR OPINED THAT FERNANDES
WAS SELECTED TO SPEAK ON BEHALF OF THE INDIAN
GOVERNMENT BY THIS GROUP; MEA DID NOT INTEND TO MAKE
ANY STATEMENT ON THE MATTER. NOT SURPRISINGLY, KUMAR
AGREED THAT THE MISSILE ISSUE WAS RIPE FOR DISCUSSION
IN AN INDO-PAKISTANI DIALOGUE, BUT HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT
THERE HAD BEEN NO SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSION OF SECURITY
ISSUES AS THE TWO SIDES REMAINED DEAD-LOCKED OVER THE
PROCEDURAL LOGJAM OF ADDRESSING KASHMIR.


COMMENT
--------------

5. (C) IN RESPONDING TO THE PAKISTANI MISSILE TEST, WE
SUSPECT THE INDIANS WILL ALLOW ACTIONS TO SPEAK LOUDER
THAN WORDS, WITH AN AGNI MISSILE TEST IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. IT IS WORTH RECALLING COMMITMENTS BY PREVIOUS
INDIAN GOVERNMENTS THAT THE AGNI PROGRAM REMAINED A
HIGH PRIORITY, AND THAT THE INDIANS HAVE BEEN MULLING
OVER A DECISION TO TEST THE AGNI FOR SOME TIME NOW.
INDEED, JASJIT SINGH TOLD US THAT HE MADE ONE MORE RUN
AT PUSHING FOR AN AGNI TEST DURING GUJRAL'S FINAL WEEKS
IN OFFICE. THIS BJP-LED GOVERNMENT HAS MADE DEFENSE A
PROMINENT ISSUE IN ITS AGENDA AND SEVERAL OF ITS
"SECURITY EXPERTS" HAVE CALLED FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT
OF LONGER RANGE BALLISTIC MISSILES TO ADDRESS THE
PERCEIVED CHINA THREAT. THE DEFENSE MINISTER'S
COMMENTS THAT INDIA CAN TARGET ALL OF PAKISTAN WITH
PRITHVI MISSILES CERTAINLY BOLSTERS ISLAMABAD'S BELIEF
THAT IT NEEDS LONGER RANGE MISSILES TO KEEP UP WITH ITS
SOUTH ASIAN NEIGHBOR. THE UPCOMING VISITS OF SENIOR
U.S. OFFICIALS WILL PRESENT A USEFUL OPPORTUNITY TO
URGE RESTRAINT WITH BOTH SIDES, ALTHOUGH NEW DELHI
ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO PORTRAY ITS MISSILE
PROGRAMS AS A NECESSARY RESPONSE TO THE CHINA THREAT.


CELESTE