Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
98JEDDAH1247
1998-12-09 07:17:00
SECRET
Consulate Jeddah
Cable title:  

JEDDAH OBSERVERS ON THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING

Tags:  PGOV PINS ECON PHUM SOCI PREL SA 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 090717Z DEC 98
FM AMCONSUL JEDDAH
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1937
INFO AMEMBASSY RIYADH 
GCC COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMEMBASSY LONDON 
USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 001247 

CENTCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
PARIS FOR LEAF; LONDON FOR SUTPHIN

E.0. 12958: DECL: 12/09/08
TAGS: PGOV PINS ECON PHUM SOCI PREL SA
SUBJECT: JEDDAH OBSERVERS ON THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING

REF: (A) JEDDAH 1136 (B) JEDDAH 1116 (C) JEDDAH 360


S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 JEDDAH 001247

CENTCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
PARIS FOR LEAF; LONDON FOR SUTPHIN

E.0. 12958: DECL: 12/09/08
TAGS: PGOV PINS ECON PHUM SOCI PREL SA
SUBJECT: JEDDAH OBSERVERS ON THE MAN WHO WOULD BE KING

REF: (A) JEDDAH 1136 (B) JEDDAH 1116 (C) JEDDAH 360



1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY CONSUL GENERAL STEPHEN W. BUCK,
REASON 1.5 (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: DURING RECENT VISIT BY RIYADH
POLCOUNS, JEDDAH POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND JOURNALISTS
VIGOROUSLY DISCUSSED ROYAL JOCKEYING FOR POWER AND THE
CROWN PRINCE'S ROLE AND PROSPECTS. LIKE SO MANY
SAUDIS, MOST SEE HIM AS THE COUNTRY'S GREAT HOPE, A
GOOD MAN WHO WILL DEAL WITH INCREASINGLY PRESSING
PROBLEMS. MANY SEE THE JOCKEYING FOR POWER BETWEEN
KING FAHD'S SUDAYRI BROTHERS AND THEIR ALLIES AND THE
CROWN PRINCE AS ON-GOING AND BYZANTINE. ONE VOCAL
OBSERVER ARGUED THAT CP ABDULLAH WILL BE BLOCKED AT
EVERY TURN AND MAY NOT LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE A
DIFFERENCE OR EVEN, PERHAPS, LONG ENOUGH TO BE KING.
END SUMMARY.


3. (C) OVER DINNER CG HOSTED FOR JEDDAH POLITICAL
SCIENCE PROFESSORS AND AN OUTSPOKEN ECONOMIST WHO IS A
TV PERSONALITY, AND IN MEETINGS WITH OTHER SAUDI
POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN JEDDAH, INCLUDING TWO TOP SAUDI
JOURNALISTS, VISITING RIYADH POLCOUNS GOT AN EARFUL OF
VIEWS, RUMORS AND SPECULATION ON THE CROWN PRINCE,
HIS FUTURE AND HIS CRITICAL ROLE IN DEALING WITH 'HE
COUNTRY'S MOUNTING ILLS. WE REPORT THESE NOT BECAUSE
THEY ARE NECESSARILY INSIDERS' VIEWS OF WHAT IS GOING
ON AT THE TOP, BUT BECAUSE THESE INTERLOCUTORS ARE THE
SAUDI VERSION OF POLITICAL OBSERVERS IN THIS HIGHLY
CONTROLLED SOCIETY AND BECAUSE WE SUSPECT THEIR VIEWS
REFLECT THOSE OF A MUCH WIDER EDUCATED SAUDI AUDIENCE
ABOUT THE CROWN PRINCE, HIS PROSPECTS, AND THE
CHALLENGES HE FACES.


IMPRESSIONS OF THE CROWN PRINCE DURING HIS TRIP
-------------- --


4. (S) A NUMBER OF THESE JEDDAH OBSERVERS TOLD CG,
RIYADH POLCOUNS, AND POLECONOFF THAT THEY HAD HEARD
THAT AMERICANS DID NOT HAVE A POSITIVE IMPRESSION OF
CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH BEFORE HIS TRIP TO THE U.S.
POLCOUNS DENIED THIS, SAYING THAT THE CROWN PRINCE MADE
A FAVORABLE IMPRESSION IN THE U.S. DURING HIS TRIP,
INCLUDING VERY SUCCESSFUL MEETINGS WITH THE PRESIDENT,
THE VICE PRESIDENT, AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE. ARAB

NEWS EDITOR-IN-CHIEF AND GADFLY KHALED AL-MAEENA, WHO
ACCOMPANIED THE CROWN PRINCE THROUGHOUT HIS WORLD TRIP,
NOTED THAT THE CROWN PRINCE ADMITTED OPENLY THAT HE WAS
A SALESMAN FOR HIS COUNTRY--A BIG CHANGE FOR ABDULLAH.
AL-MAEENA SAID THE CROWN PRINCE WAS VERY BUSINESSLIKE
THROUGHOUT THE TRIP. WHILE HE DELIGHTED IN VISITING
SHOPPING MALLS DURING HIS STAY IN HAWAII, HE ALSO KEPT
HIS ADVISORS BUSY WRITING BRIEFING PAPERS IN
PREPARATION FOR THE ASIAN PART OF HIS TRIP.


LONGEVITY OF THE KING - AND THE CROWN PRINCE
--------------


5. (S) IN LIVELY AND AT TIMES HEATED DISCUSSION AT
THE CG'S RESIDENCE, FOUR SAUDI POLITICAL SCIENTISTS AND
ONE ECONOMIST SPECULATED ON THE CROWN PRINCE'S CHANCES
TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN DEALING WITH SAUDI ARABIA'S
MOUNTING PROBLEMS. MOST FELT THAT ABDULLAH IS IN
EXCELLENT PHYSICAL SHAPE FOR A MAN HIS AGE AND HAS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR A LONG TENURE IN OFFICE, DURING WHICH
HE CAN MAKE THE NECESSARY REFORMS WHICH WILL LEAD THE
KINGDOM INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. THE SOLE ECONOMIST,
ALSO A TV COMMENTATOR, ARGUED VIGOROUSLY AND SOMETIMES
BELLIGERENTLY THAT KING FAHD MAY CONTINUE TO REIGN (BUT
NOT RULE) FOR ANOTHER TEN YEARS WITH THE HELP OF MODERN
MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY, AND THAT EVEN IF ABDULLAH BECOMES
KING, HE MAY ONLY HAVE A THREE TO FOUR YEAR TENURE--NOT
ENOUGH TO ENACT SUBSTANTIVE REFORMS.


KEEPING THE KING AROUND
--------------


6. (S) IN SEPARATE CONVERSATIONS BOTH AL-MAEENA AND A
RETIRED SENIOR SAUDI OFFICIAL TOLD US THAT IT WAS KING
FAHD'S SUDAYRI BROTHERS AND HIS IN-LAWS (THE HIGHLY
CORRUPT IBRAHIMS) WHO CONVINCED KING FAHD NOT TO RETIRE
AFTER HE HAD HANDED OVER POWER TO CP ABDULLAH AFTER HIS
STROKE. AL-MAEENA CLAIMED THAT NOT LONG AGO FAHD AGAIN
WANTED TO ABDICATE BUT THE CLOSE FAMILY AROUND HIM
ENSURED THIS DID NOT HAPPEN.


STRONG RULER OR "RUBBER STAMP"?
--------------


7. (S) MOST OF THESE POLITICAL OBSERVERS TOLD US
ABDULLAH IS A STRONG RULER WHO IS GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY,
WILL REIGN IN THE MUTAWWA, CRACK DOWN ON EXCESSES, AND
BRING THE COUNTRY INTO THE 21ST CENTURY. ECHOING WHAT
WE HAVE WIDELY HEARD, ONE OBSERVER SAID THE CROWN
PRINCE COMMANDS RESPECT THAT FAHD DOES NOT. THE
RETIRED SENIOR OFFICIAL WAS UPBEAT ON THE CROWN
PRINCE'S POTENTIAL, AND PREDICTED THAT ABDULLAH WILL
GIVE WOMEN THE RIGHT TO DRIVE. ON SUCCESSION, HE
DISCOUNTED REPORTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHO WILL BE
ABDULLAH'S CROWN PRINCE, SAYING IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE
PRINCE SULTAN.


8. (S) THE ECONOMIST/TV COMMENTATOR WAS ADAMANT IN
CALLING ABDULLAH A "RUBBER STAMP," CONTENDING THE CROWN
PRINCE DOES NOT MAKE DECISIONS ON HIS OWN BUT IS MOSTLY
CARRYING OUT THE ADVICE OF HIS CONSULTANTS. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ECONOMIST ASSERTED THAT ABDULLAH'S
WASHINGTON ENERGY INITIATIVE COULD NOT HAVE BEEN HIS
OWN IDEA, SINCE HE LACKED TECHNICAL COMMAND OF THE
ISSUE. TYING IN WITH THIS LINE OF REASONING, OTHER
JEDDAH OBSERVERS CLAIMED THAT SENIOR PALACE OFFICIALS
NOWAISSER AND ANGARI NOW PLAY A KEY ROLE IN POLICY
MAKING AND THAT THEY OFTEN CARRY OUT THE DESIRES OF
FAHD'S CLOSE BLOOD RELATIVES AND IN-LAWS.


ALLIES AND ENEMIES
--------------


9. (S) MOST OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS FELT THAT FOREIGN
MINISTER SAUD AL-FAISAL IS A STRONG ALLY OF THE CROWN
PRINCE ABDULLAH; ABDULLAH TRUSTS SAUD AL-FAISAL, AND
CONSULTS WITH HIM ON FOREIGN POLICY AND OTHER MATTERS.
THEY SAID SAUD WOULD PROBABLY LEAVE THE FOREIGN
MINISTRY AND BECOME A ROYAL ADVISER WHEN ABDULLAH
BECOMES KING. THE SUDAYRI FAMILY, IN THE EYES OF THESE
OBSERVERS, ARE MANIPULATING ABDULLAH, AND ARE VYING FOR
POWER BEHIND THE SCENES. ONE COMMENTATOR SAID THAT
PRINCE NAIF IS OBSESSED WITH SECURITY, PRINCE SALMAN
HAS HIS OWN SPIES, AND EVERYONE IN THE PALACE IS SPYING
ON EACH OTHER. (ACCORDING TO THIS OBSERVER, AMBASSADOR
TO THE U.S. PRINCE BANDAR BIN SULTAN IS CALLED
"AMERICA'S MAN", VIEWED AS A PURVEYOR FOR U.S.
INTERESTS, AND VERY HATED HERE AND BY THE ROYAL FAMILY.
THIS OBSERVER ALSO TERMED BANDAR A "BLACK MONKEY" WHO
WOULD NEVER BECOME KING BECAUSE OF HIS SLAVE MOTHER.)

FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE
--------------


10. (S) THE CROWN PRINCE, ACCORDING TO JAMAL AL-
KHASHOGGI, POLITICAL COLUMNIST FOR AL-HAYAT NEWSPAPER,
FACES A DAUNTING FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGE IN THE MIDDLE
EAST. THE KINGDOM CANNOT DEPEND ON SYRIA, AND IRAQ IS
NOT A FRIEND: IT IS HARD TO BUILD A COALITION IN THE
ARAB WORLD TO BALANCE THE POWER OF THE ISRAELIS AND THE
U.S. THE CROWN PRINCE IS NOT HAPPY WITH THE CURRENT
SITUATION IN THE ARAB WORLD: HE NEEDS STRONG NEIGHBORS,
BUT EGYPT AND SAUDI ARABIA CANNOT FLY ALONE.


11. (S) COMMENT/CONCLUSION: THE CROWN PRINCE HAS BOTH
ADMIRERS AND CRITICS AMONG JEDDAH POLITICAL OBSERVERS,
WHO ARE BRUTALLY FRANK ABOUT THEIR ASSESSMENT OF THE
GRIM STATE OF SAUDI SOCIETY (SEPTEL) AND THE DAUNTING
CHALLENGES ABDULLAH FACES. ALL FELT THAT THE DECISION
PROCESS IN THE KINGDOM CRIES OUT FOR REFORMS, THAT IT
IS FAR TOO SLOW, CUMBERSOME AND OPAQUE. ONE JOURNALIST
ARGUED THAT THE KINGDOM NEEDS A WHITE REVOLUTION,
SIMILAR TO THAT OCCURRING NOW IN QATAR, WITH SOMEONE
FROM THE ROYAL FAMILY CHANGING LAWS AND THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM. MOST OBSERVERS IN JEDDAH HOPE THAT SOMEONE
WILL BE CROWN PRINCE ABDULLAH. WE DOUBT, HOWEVER, THAT
EVEN IF HE DOES COME TO POWER SOON, HE CAN MEET EVEN
MOST OF THEIR EXPECTATIONS.

BUCK