PAKISTAN: FUNDAMENTALISM AND SUPPORT FOR OSAMA BIN LADEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 008066

DEPT FOR D, P, SA/PAB; LONDON FOR POL/SUTPHIN; PARIS FOR
POL/RAVELING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/08
TAGS: PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: FUNDAMENTALISM AND SUPPORT FOR OSAMA BIN LADEN
AND THE TALIBAN IN THE PUNJABI COUNTRYSIDE (C-NA8-01076)

REFS: (A) STATE 190698, (B) ISLAMABAD 7155

(U) CLASSIFIED BY JOHN R. SCHMIDT, POLITICAL COUNSELOR. REASON 1.5(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT CONVERSATIONS WITH A SAMPLING OF RURAL
PUNJABI POLITICIANS PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT RECRUITMENT TO MILITANT
RELIGIOUS GROUPS IS INCREASING IN POORER AREAS OF THE PUNJABI
COUNTRYSIDE (PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PUNJAB),BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
THAT A MASS FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING. THESE SAME SOURCES ALSO CONTEND THAT OSAMA BIN LADEN
AND THE TALIBAN ARE HIGHLY POPULAR AMONG POORLY EDUCATED PEOPLE
IN RURAL AREAS (AND PROBABLY URBAN AREAS AS WELL). SUCH
POPULARITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE RELIGIOUSLY MOTIVATED, BUT
EXISTS AT THE LEVEL OF POPULAR CULTURE, REFLECTING THE NEED FOR
SUCCESSFUL ROLE MODELS ON THE PART OF ORDINARY MUSLIMS FED UP
WITH THE FAILURE OF SUCCESSIVE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENTS TO MEET
BASIC HUMAN NEEDS. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) IN RESPONSE TO REFTEL A, POLCOUNS HAS RECENTLY SPOKEN
WITH THREE PML MNAS REPRESENTING RURAL CONSTITUENCIES IN THE
PUNJABI COUNTRYSIDE. THE THREE ARE MUMTAZ AHMED TARAR, A NAWAZ
SHARIF LOYALIST WHO SERVES AS CHAIRMAN OF THE ASSEMBLY PUBLIC
SERVICES COMMITTEE, COL (R) GHULAM SARWAR CHEEMA, A PARTY
SWITCHING FORMER PPP MINISTER OF STATE WHO NOW SERVES AS CHAIRMAN
OF THE ASSEMBLY DEFENSE COMMITTEE, AND SARDAR MANSOOR HAYAT KHAN
TAMMAN, A LIBERAL-MINDED MNA NOW SERVING AS CHAIRMAN OF THE
FINANCE COMMITTEE, TO WHOM POLCOUNS PAID A REPEAT VISIT. THE
SUBJECT WAS SUPPORT FOR ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM AND THE TALIBAN IN
THE PUNJABI COUNTRYSIDE.


3. (C) IN THE JUDGMENT OF POLCOUNS, TARAR WAS THE MOST
COMPELLING WITNESS. IN A WIDE-RANGING DISCUSSION, HE CONTENDED
THAT ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM (DEFINED AS SUPPORT FOR MILITANT
RELIGIOUS GROUPS) IS A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM ONLY IN RURAL
DISTRICTS CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE LANDHOLDINGS (I.E., QUASI-FEUDAL
AREAS),WHERE THERE WAS A STARK DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HAVES AND HAVE
NOTS. THE ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN THESE REGIONS HELPED TO FUEL
EXTREMIST RELIGIOUS ATTITUDES. HE CITED THE MULTAN, BAHAWALPUR,
MIANWALI AND SARGHODA AREAS AS EXAMPLES. IN OTHER DISTRICTS,
WHERE SMALL LANDHOLDERS PREVAIL AND THERE IS A FUNCTIONING MIDDLE
CLASS, THERE ARE FEWER SOCIAL TENSIONS AND EXTREMIST RELIGIOUS
ATTITUDES ARE HELD BY ONLY BY A FEW. HIS OWN DISTRICT, MANDI
BAHAUDIN IN CENTRAL PUNJAB, FELL INTO THE LATTER CATEGORY. LESS
THAN ONE PERCENT OF HIS CONSTITUENTS BELONGED TO MILITANT GROUPS,
USUALLY THE SUNNI SECTARIAN SIPAH-E-SAHABA PAKISTAN (SSP).


4. (C) TARAR SAID THE CASE WAS QUITE DIFFERENT WITH RESPECT TO
SUPPORT FOR OSAMA BIN LADEN AND THE TALIBAN. HE BELIEVED THAT
UPWARDS OF NINETY PERCENT OF THE CONSTITUENTS IN HIS DISTRICT
AND, INDEED, THROUGHOUT URBAN AND RURAL PUNJAB, HAVE A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE OPINION OF BOTH BIN LADEN AND THE TALIBAN. HE OPINED
THAT BIN LADEN IS THE HERO OF THE MOMENT IN PAKISTAN AND WOULD
WIN ANY ELECTION IN A LANDSLIDE. THIS WAS NOT DUE TO ANY
WELLSPRING OF FUNDAMENTALIST RELIGIOUS SUPPORT. HIS OWN
CONSTITUENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, WERE NOT PARTICULARLY RELIGIOUS. IT
WAS DUE RATHER TO THE FACT THAT BIN LADEN AND THE TALIBAN
APPEARED TO ORDINARY FOLK AS ISLAMIC HEROES WHO HAD NOT ONLY
STOOD UP TO THE ANTI-ISLAMIC WEST BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN SO
DOING. THIS WAS A HEADY CONTRAST TO THE PERCEIVED INEFFECTUALITY
OF THEIR OWN LEADERS.


5. (C) TARAR ADDED THAT SUPPORT FOR THE 15TH AMENDMENT WAS
SIMILARLY WIDESPREAD IN HIS DISTRICT. THIS WAS NOT DUE TO
RELIGIOUS CONVICTION, BUT BECAUSE HIS CONSTITUENTS BELIEVED THAT
IT WOULD EMPOWER THE GOVERNMENT TO BRING SWIFT JUSTICE AND LAW
AND ORDER TO THE COUNTRY. DESPITE THE POPULARITY OF BIN LADEN
AND THE TALIBAN IN RURAL AREAS, TARAR SAW LITTLE DANGER THAT
PEOPLE FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE COULD BE PERSUADED TO TAKE MILITANT
ACTION. THEY WERE INVOLVED IN THE DAY TO DAY STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE
AND TOO REMOVED FROM THE CENTERS OF POWER. HIS OWN CONSTITUENTS
WERE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON OBTAINING GOVERNMENT LOANS WHICH COULD
BE USED TO PAY AGENTS TO SMUGGLE THEM INTO WESTERN COUNTRIES. HE
ESTIMATED THAT FIVE TO TEN PERCENT OF HIS CONSTITUENTS WERE
WORKING OR HAD WORKED ABROAD. THE REAL DANGER CAME FROM THE
URBAN AREAS, WHERE THERE WAS A MUCH LARGER CADRE OF
FUNDAMENTALIST RABBLE ROUSERS WHO COULD POTENTIALLY MOBILIZE
LARGE NUMBERS OF DISAFFECTED YOUNG PEOPLE.


6. (C) THE URBANE, HIGHLY POLISHED COL CHEEMA REPRESENTS A RURAL
PUNJABI CONSTITUENCY NEAR GUJRANWALA AND OWNS PROPERTY IN THREE
OTHERS (NEAR LAHORE, FAISALABAD AND JHANG). HE WAS MUCH MORE
IMPRESSIONISTIC AND LESS SPECIFIC IN HIS OWN VIEWS ABOUT
FUNDAMENTALISM IN RURAL PUNJAB. HIS OWN BELIEF WAS THAT THE
FAILURE OF SUCCESSIVE GOVERNMENTS TO IMPROVE THE LOT OF THE
PEOPLE HAD DESTROYED THE FAITH OF ORDINARY PAKISTANIS IN THE
ABILITY OF THE TRADITIONAL POLITICAL CLASS (MILITARY AND
CIVILIAN) TO PROVIDE GOOD GOVERNMENT AND SATISFY BASIC ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL NEEDS. THIS, IN TURN, HAD MADE THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO ALTERNATIVE MESSAGES, SUCH AS THOSE CONVEYED TWO DECADES AGO
BY THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION AND, MORE RECENTLY, BY THE TALIBAN.


7. (C) RICH WITH ANECDOTES, HE TOLD THE STORY OF AN ELDERLY
WOMAN WHO HAD COME TO HIM FOR HELP DURING A RECENT VISIT TO HIS
DISTRICT. ALTHOUGH THE ONLY ELECTRICAL ITEM IN HER ONE ROOM
HOUSE WAS A LIGHT BULB HER BILL AMOUNTED TO 3000 RUPEES (60
DOLLARS, A FORMIDABLE SUM). ALTHOUGH SHE HAD A FAN, SHE COULD
NOT AFFORD TO RUN IT. CHEEMA SAID THAT, WHILE HE HAD MANAGED TO
GET HER BILL REDUCED TO 2500 RUPEES, THE WOMAN WAS TYPICAL OF THE
CASES HE GETS DURING HIS WEEKLY AUDIENCES WITH CONSTITUENTS. HIS
CONSTITUENTS WERE BENDING UNDER THE WEIGHT OF INCREASING POVERTY,
WHICH MADE THEM MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RADICAL RELIGIOUS MESSAGES.


8. (C) CHEEMA ALSO BEMOANED THE MANY FUNDAMENTALIST MADRASSAS
(RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS) THAT HAD SPRUNG UP RECENTLY. HE TOLD THE
STORY OF THE SON OF A CONSTITUENT WHO HAD BEEN PERSUADED TO DROP
OUT OF STANFORD BY A VISITING PAKISTANI "TABLIGHI" (LAY ISLAMIC
PROSELYTIZER) AND RETURN TO PAKISTAN TO ENROLL IN A MADRASSA NEAR
LAHORE. HE HAD SUBSEQUENTLY BEEN LOST TO HIS FAMILY, WHO
STRUGGLED TO GAIN PERMISSION TO SEE HIM AND RECEIVED FOR THEIR
TROUBLES A PERFUNCTORY HELLO AND GOOD-BYE. HIS SENSE WAS THAT
RECRUITMENT TO RADICAL MADRASSAS HAD BEEN SHARPLY ON THE INCREASE
RECENTLY, SERVING AS A MAGNET FOR DISAFFECTED YOUTH. MUHAMMAD
KHALID MASUD, PROFESSOR OF ISLAMIC LAW AT THE INTERNATIONAL
ISLAMIC UNIVERSITY, ECHOED THIS IN A CONVERSATION WITH POLCOUNS
ON OCTOBER 24 CONTENDING THAT EXTREMIST VIEWS WERE COMING TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE MADRASSA SYSTEM.


9. (C) CHEEMA SAID IT WAS HIS SENSE THAT SUCH TRENDS WERE
FRAYING AT THE VERY FABRIC OF PAKISTANI SOCIETY, CAUSING THE
COUNTRY TO BEGIN COMING APART AT THE SEAMS. SWITCHING METAPHORS,
HE LIKENED PAKISTAN TO A DRIED OUT BALE OF HAY THAT NEEDED ONLY
THE SLIGHTEST OF SPARKS TO SET IT ALIGHT. NOTING THE SHARP
INCREASE IN SECTARIAN VIOLENCE AND APPEARANCE OF MYRIAD SECTS ALL
HOLDING THEIR OWN MONOPOLIES ON THE TRUTH, HE FEARED THAT ONCE
THE SPARK WAS LIT ALL THESE GROUPS WOULD BE AT EACH OTHERS
THROATS. LOOKING AT POLCOUNS RUEFULLY, HE COMMENTED THAT WHILE
POLCOUNS WOULD SERVE IN PAKISTAN FOR ONLY A YEAR OR TWO, HE AND
HIS COUNTRYMEN WERE CONDEMNED TO REMAIN BEHIND.


10. (C) IN ADDITION TO MEETING WITH TARAR AND CHEEMA, POLCOUNS
ALSO PAID A RETURN VISIT TO SARDAR MANSOOR HAYAT KHAN TAMMAN, WHO
HAD EARLIER REPORTED A SHARP INCREASE IN FUNDAMENTALISM AND PRO-
TALIBAN SENTIMENT IN HIS RURAL PUNJABI DISTRICT (REFTEL B).
TAMMAN DID NO BACKING AWAY FROM HIS EARLIER COMMENTS ABOUT
FUNDAMENTALISM TAKING HOLD IN HIS DISTRICT. HE SAID THE POVERTY
IN HIS DISTRICT HAD HELPED ATTRACT CONVERTS TO RADICAL RELIGIOUS
GROUPS. AKRAM AWAN, A MIDDLE CLASS LANDLORD AND FOUNDER OF THE
RADICAL AKHAN UL MUSLIMIN PARTY, ALSO HAILS FROM HIS DISTRICT.
LIKE TARAR HE ALSO OBSERVED THAT, SINCE THE U.S. CRUISE MISSILE
STRIKES IN AFGHANISTAN, THE FORMERLY UNKNOWN OSAMA BIN LADEN HAD
BECOME A CELEBRITY AND SOMETHING OF A FOLK HERO AMONG THE
ORDINARY PEOPLE IN HIS DISTRICT.


11. (C) SOME OF THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN ALSO BEEN NOTED
BY CONSULATE LAHORE. PO WAS STRUCK BY THE LARGE NUMBER OF FLAGS,
BANNERS AND SLOGANS FOR THE JIHADIST LASHKAR-E-TAIBA (LT) HE
NOTED IN SAHIWAL DISTRICT DURING A RECENT VISIT TO HARAPPA. THIS
GROUP SPECIALIZES IN RECRUITING YOUNG PUNJABIS TO FIGHT IN
KASHMIR. CONSULATE CONTACTS HAVE ALSO NOTED A CONTINUING
STRENGTHENING IN SUPPORT FOR THE SSP IN RURAL PARTS OF KHANEWAL,
TOBA TEK SINGH AND MULTAN DISTRICTS. THE SSP ALSO RECENTLY
CAPTURED CONTROL OF THE JHANG MUNICIPALITY (ITS URBAN BIRTHPLACE)
ALTHOUGH THE RURAL JHANG HINTERLAND REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL SHIA LANDLORD. ACCORDING TO CONSULATE
LAHORE, MILITANT GROUPS SUCH AS THE SSP AND THE LT APPEAR TO BE
EXPANDING THEIR SUPPORT AT THE EXPENSE OF THE MORE TRADITIONAL
RELIGIOUS PARTIES, SUCH AS JAMAAT-I-ISLAMI AND JAMAAT-ULEMA-I-
ISLAM.


12. (C) COMMENT: IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO BUILD A CLEAR PICTURE
OF POLITICAL AND RELIGIOUS ATTITUDES IN THE PUNJABI COUNTRYSIDE
BASED ON A SMALL HANDFUL OF CONVERSATIONS. WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THERE IS ANYTHING LIKE A MASS FUNDAMENTALIST MOVEMENT
DEVELOPING IN THE RURAL AREAS. OUR SENSE, RATHER, IS THAT THE
CONTINUING DETERIORATION IN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IS FUELING A
STEADY INCREASE IN THE RECRUITMENT OF DISAFFECTED YOUNG PEOPLE
INTO RADICAL RELIGIOUS GROUPS LIKE THE SSP IN AREAS OF RURAL
PUNJAB (PRIMARILY THE SOUTH) WHERE POVERTY BITES THE HARDEST. IN
RAISING A RED FLAG, TAMMAN IS PROBABLY REACTING MORE TO AN
IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL ABILITY OF A LOCAL MILITANT
GROUP WITH PRO-TALIBAN SYMPATHIES THAN TO A LARGESCALE INCREASE
IN NUMBERS. FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE DANGER IS NOT THAT RURAL
PUNJAB IS TURNING FUNDAMENTALIST, BUT THAT RADICAL RELIGIOUS
GROUPS ARE MAKING INROADS HERE JUST AS IN URBAN AREAS, FRAYING
GRADUALLY BUT INEXORABLY AT THE STABILITY OF THE STATE.


13. COMMENT CONT. AS FOR THE ALLEGED WIDESPREAD SUPPORT FOR
OSAMA BIN LADEN AND THE TALIBAN AMONG ORDINARY PEOPLE, OUR
INSTINCTS TELL US THIS MAY WELL BE CORRECT, BUT FOR THE REASONS
CITED BY TARAR. SUCH ATTITUDES DO NOT REFLECT RADICAL RELIGIOUS
SENTIMENT OR EVEN ACTIVIST POLITICAL SUPPORT BUT OPERATE AT THE
LEVEL OF POPULAR CULTURE, WITH BIN LADEN AND THE TALIBAN VIEWED
AS A SUCCESSFUL ISLAMIC ROLE MODELS. (PUNJABIS, AFTER ALL, ARE
MUCH MORE CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN KASHMIR THAN IN
AFGHANISTAN.)


14. COMMENT CONT. NONETHELESS, THE FACT THAT BIN LADEN AND THE
TALIBAN CAN FUNCTION AS CULTURAL ICONS IS CLEARLY AN INDICTMENT
OF THE PAKISTANI POLITICAL CLASS, WHICH HAS MISERABLY FAILED TO
PROVIDE EITHER GOOD GOVERNMENT OR POSITIVE ROLE MODELS. IT IS
ALSO AN INDICATION OF THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF ORDINARY PAKISTANIS
TO ANTI-WESTERN PROPAGANDA, ITSELF NOURISHED BY THE FAILURE OF
SUCCESSIVE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENTS TO DELIVER THE GOODS, BUT
REFLECTING ALSO THE CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF YEARS OF WHAT HAS BEEN
PERCEIVED HERE AS ANTI-ISLAMIC BEHAVIOR BY THE UNITED STATES.
END COMMENT.


MILAM