PRIME MINISTER SUCCUMBS TO DOMESTIC PRESSURE, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 003966


LONDON FOR POL/TUELLER
CINCPAC/CENTCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/08
TAGS: PREL PARM MNUC IN PK
SUBJECT: PRIME MINISTER SUCCUMBS TO DOMESTIC PRESSURE, AND
PAKISTAN CONDUCTS FIVE NUCLEAR TESTS

CLASSIFIED BY ACTING POLCOUNS DAN MOZENA. REASON: 1.5 (B).


1. (U) SOMBER AND TIRED LOOKING, PRIME MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF TOLD
HIS NATION MAY 28 EVENING THAT PAKISTAN HAD SUCCESSFULLY EXPLODED
FIVE NUCLEAR DEVICES SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY. A RECURRING
THEME THROUGHOUT THE SPEECH WAS THE FAILURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY TO RESPOND ADEQUATELY TO THE INDIAN NUCLEAR THREAT
BEGINNING AS FAR BACK AS THE INDIAN NUCLEAR TEST IN 1974 AND AS
RECENTLY AS THE TESTS CONDUCTED EARLIER THIS MONTH. NAWAZ SAID IF
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD TAKEN THE INDIAN THREAT SERIOUSLY,
THEN PAKISTAN MIGHT NOT HAVE NEEDED TO TEST.


2. (U) NAWAZ TRIED TO STEEL HIS NATION FOR TOUGH TIMES AHEAD AND
DECLARED THAT HE AND ALL GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY LEADERS WERE READY
FOR AN ERA OF AUSTERITY AND SIMPLICITY, STARTING WITH NAWAZ'S
GIVING UP THE NEWLY-OPENED AND PALATIAL PRIME MINISTER'S
SECRETARIAT BUILDING, WHICH HE PROPOSED COULD BE CONVERTED INTO A
HOSPITAL, WOMEN'S UNIVERSITY, OR SOME OTHER CHARITY USE. HE URGED
PAKISTANIS TO BRACE THEMSELVES FOR DIFFICULT TIMES AHEAD AND TO
FACE THESE DIFFICULTIES COURAGEOUSLY AND BOLDLY. HE DECLARED
PAKISTAN'S OPTIONS OF BECOMING SLAVES OR LEADING HONORABLE AND
INDEPENDENT LIVES LEFT PAKISTAN NO CHOICE.


3. (U) REFLECTING INDO-PAK TIT-FOR-TAT MENTALITY, NAWAZ SAID
PAKISTAN HAD RESPONDED TO INDIA'S MISSILE TESTS WITH ITS OWN TEST
OF THE GHAURI MISSILE LAST MONTH, AND PAKISTAN HAS NOW RESPONDED TO
INDIA'S FIVE NUCLEAR TESTS WITH FIVE OF ITS OWN. HE DECLARED THAT
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PAST DAYS IS NOW GONE, AND IF INDIA IS
AGGRESSIVE, PAKISTAN WILL FIGHT BACK -- THE ARMED FORCES ARE
PREPARED TO FIGHT AND THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS ARE PREPARED TO MEET
ANY CHALLENGE. NAWAZ SAID THAT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS HE WILL AGAIN
SPEAK TO THE NATION TO ANNOUNCE A "NATIONAL AGENDA."


4. (U) IN A DIPLOMATIC SOP, NAWAZ PRAISED THE CHINESE, WHOM HE
CALLED GREAT AND RELIABLE FRIENDS AND EXPRESSED APPRECIATION FOR
THE JAPANESE, WHOM HE SAID WOULD HAVE AVOIDED HAVING HAD THEIR
CITIES SUBJECTED TO NUCLEAR ATTACK HAD JAPAN HAD NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
HE SAID HE WAS GRATEFUL FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON'S FIVE CALLS AND SAID
THE PRESIDENT UNDERSTOOD PAKISTAN'S DIFFICULTIES.


5. (C) COMMENT: AT THE END OF THE DAY, NAWAZ FELL VICTIM TO THE
HARDLINERS BOTH IN THE OPPOSITION AND WITHIN HIS OWN GOVERNMENT WHO
WERE RELENTLESS IN WHIPPING UP A MEDIA FRENZY DEMANDING A PAKISTANI
RESPONSE IN KIND. THERE WERE FEW EFFECTIVE DOMESTIC COUNTERVAILING
FORCES BUILDING MEDIA AND POPULAR SUPPORT FOR RESTRAINT. NAWAZ'S
DECISION TO TEST WAS FUELED BY CONCERNS THAT HE COULD NOT AFFORD TO
GIVE HIS FRAGMENTED OPPOSITION THE "NAWAZ-IS-WEAK-ON-INDIA" ISSUE
TO COALESCE AROUND IN THEIR BID TO FORCE HIM FROM POWER. IN HIS
SPEECH, NAWAZ PLAYED TO PAKISTANI FEARS OF INDIAN EXPANSIONISM AND
DISTRUST OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
LONG PAKISTANIS WILL RALLY AROUND THE FLAG ONCE INTERNATIONAL
SANCTIONS KICK IN, FURTHER CHALLENGING THIS ALREADY VULNERABLE
ECONOMY. NAWAZ'S NOTION THAT PAKISTANIS WILL "SACRIFICE" BY GIVING
UP LONG CHERISHED "RIGHTS" SUCH AS STEALING NATURAL GAS AND
ELECTRICITY AND AVOIDING TAXES STRIKE US AS MORE WISHFUL THAN
REALISTIC. PAKISTANIS HAVE ALWAYS PREFERRED TALKING ABOUT EATING
GRASS (IN PURSUIT OF NATIONAL SECURITY) RATHER THAN ACTUALLY HAVING
TO EAT IT.


SIMONS