POLITICAL OPPOSITION FLAYS NAWAZ FOR DELAYING RESPONSE TO INDIAN NUCLEAR CHALLENGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003918


CENTCOM/CINCPAC ALSO FOR POLAD
LONDON FOR POL/TUELLER
USIA FOR NEA - LARSEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/03
TAGS: PREL, PARM, MNUC, PK
SUBJ: POLITICAL OPPOSITION FLAYS NAWAZ FOR DELAYING RESPONSE TO
INDIAN NUCLEAR CHALLENGE

REF: (A) ISLAMABAD 3588; (B) ISLAMABAD 3827; (C) ISLAMABAD 3858 (LAHORE 315)

(U) CLASSIFIED BY ACTING POLCOUNS DAN MOZENA. REASON: 1.5(D).

1. (C) SUMMARY: THE PRIME MINISTER'S OPPONENTS SEE NAWAZ
SHARIF'S HESITATION IN RESPONDING TO THE INDIAN NUCLEAR CHALLENGE
AS A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO ADVANCE THEIR OWN POLITICAL AGENDAS.
PAKISTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (PPP) LEADER BENAZIR BHUTTO HAS CALLED FOR
NAWAZ'S RESIGNATION AND THE FORMATION OF A "NATIONAL GOVERNMENT."
THE OPPOSITION COALITION PAKISTANI AWAMI ITTEHAD (PAI) -- OF WHICH
THE PPP IS THE LARGEST ELEMENT -- HAS DEMANDED THAT PAKISTAN
CONDUCT A NUCLEAR TEST. THE ISLAMIC PARTIES (NOT PART OF THE PAI)
ARE THREATENING TO TAKE TO THE STREETS IF THE GOVERNMENT FAILS TO
CARRY OUT A NUCLEAR TEST BY MAY 30. IN PRIVATE, HOWEVER, BENAZIR
HERSELF (REF C) AS WELL AS THE PPP'S SPOKESMAN AND ONE OF THE
PARTY'S SENATORS SEPARATELY TOLD US THEY FEEL THE TIME IS PAST FOR
A NUCLEAR TEST IN RESPONSE TO INDIA'S MAY 11 AND 13 BLASTS.
DESPITE OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO DEPICT HIM AS WEAK AND INDECISIVE,
A RECENT GALLUP POLL GIVES NAWAZ A 77 PERCENT APPROVAL RATING ON
HIS HANDLING OF THE NUCLEAR CRISIS. END SUMMARY.

PPP SPOKESMAN SEES INDIAN TEST AS "GODSEND"
--------------

2. (C) PAKISTAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (PPP) SPOKESMAN FARHATULLAH BABAR
TOLD POLOFF MAY 26 THAT INDIA'S NUCLEAR TESTS ON MAY 11 AND MAY 13
WERE A "GODSEND" FOR HIS PARTY'S EFFORTS TO SHAKE NAWAZ SHARIF'S
HOLD ON POWER. BABAR SAID THE OPPORTUNITY TO RESPOND TO INDIA'S
NUCLEAR TESTS IN KIND HAS NOW BEEN LOST AND IT WAS IMPERATIVE THAT
PAKISTAN REASSERT ITS DETERMINATION TO RETAIN ITS NUCLEAR OPTION
(WITHOUT CONDUCTING A TEST) AND THAT THE NAWAZ SHARIF GOVERNMENT
STEP DOWN AND MAKE WAY FOR A "NATIONAL GOVERNMENT" THAT COULD
EFFECTIVELY CONFRONT THE INDIAN MENACE. FOLLOWING A SIMILAR LINE,
PPP SENATOR RAZA RABBANI TOLD POLOFF MAY 26 THAT THE TIME FOR
PAKISTAN TO RESPOND TO INDIA'S TEST WITH A TEST OF ITS OWN WOULD
HAVE BEEN WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS AFTER THE INDIAN TESTS. NOW, HE
SAID, THE GOVERNMENT HAS DEMONSTRATED ITS WEAKNESS AND INDECISION
AND SHOULD STEP ASIDE IN FAVOR OF A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT.

3. (U) THE PPP, THE PAI, AND BHUTTO HERSELF HAVE BEEN SENDING
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE ISSUE OF A NUCLEAR TEST. ON MAY 25 BHUTTO
TOLD LAHORE PO THAT SHE HAS DROPPED HER CALL FOR PAKISTAN TO
CONDUCT ITS OWN NUCLEAR TEST (REF C). BUT ON MAY 27, THE PRESS
QUOTES HER AS SAYING THAT "A NUCLEAR TEST BY PAKISTAN IS NECESSARY
TO KEEP INDIA AT BAY AND TO REVITALIZE THE STRUGGLE IN KASHMIR."
FOLLOWING HER MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER GOHAR AYUB ON MAY 22,
BENAZIR SAID SHE WOULD SUPPORT THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT IN THE EVENT
OF AN ARMED CONFRONTATION WITH INDIA, BUT THEN REPEATED HER CALL
FOR THE FORMATION OF A NATIONAL GOVERNMENT. IN LAHORE ON MAY 24,
THE PAKISTAN AWAMI ITTEHAD -- OF WHICH THE PPP IS THE LARGEST
COMPONENT -- CALLED FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO RESPOND TO INDIA'S
NUCLEAR CHALLENGE BY TESTING A PAKISTANI BOMB, OR TO RESIGN. THE
PAI MEETING IN LAHORE WAS ATTENDED BY REPRESENTATIVES FROM 41
POLITICAL PARTIES IN PAKISTAN (MOST OF WHICH HAVE NO ELECTORAL
WEIGHT); MINISTER FOR TOURISM SHEIKH RASHID AHMAD ATTENDED TO MAKE
THE GOVERNMENT'S CASE. AFTER DENOUNCING THE GOVERNMENT FOR ITS
WEAK RESPONSE TO THE INDIAN CHALLENGE, BENAZIR BHUTTO ACCUSED NAWAZ
ET AL OF SPENDING THEIR TIME LOOKING FOR WAYS TO VICTIMIZE HER AND
HER FAMILY RATHER THAN DEALING WITH THE COUNTRY'S GRAVE SECURITY
SITUATION. MAY 28 PRESS ACCOUNTS REPORT THAT PAI PRESIDENT
PROFESSOR TAHIRUL QADRI HAS SUPPORTED THE MAY 30 DEADLINE FOR A
NUCLEAR TEST SET BY THE ISLAMIST PARTIES (SEE BELOW).

ISLAMIC PARTIES DEMAND NUCLEAR TEST
--------------

4. (U) ALL OF THE MAJOR ISLAMIC PARTIES, INCLUDING THE JAMAAT-I-
ISLAMI (JI) LED BY QAZI HUSSAIN AHMAD, THE JAMIAT-UL-ULEMAI ISLAM
(F)(JUI-F),LED BY MAULANA FAZAL-UR-REHMAN, AND THE FACTION OF THE
JAMIAT ULEMA E-PAKISTAN (JUP-N) LED BY MAULANA SHAH AHMED NOORANI
HAVE PUBLICLY CALLED FOR A PAKISTANI NUCLEAR TEST. REFLECTING
PERHAPS THE LACK OF PUBLIC DIRECT INVOLVEMENT IN THE ISSUE,
HOWEVER, THE JI'S CALL FOR A NATIONAL STRIKE ON MAY 22 TO PROTEST
THE FAILURE TO CONDUCT A TEST WAS LARGELY IGNORED BY SHOPKEEPERS.
VARIOUS OTHER PARTIES HAVE CALLED FOR A NATIONWIDE PROTEST CAMPAIGN
IF A TEST DOES NOT TAKE PLACE BY MAY 30. IRONICALLY, IN
AFGHANISTAN THE TALIBAN GOVERNMENT, WHICH RECEIVES SUPPORT FROM THE
JI AND THE JUI-F, HAS ENDORSED PAKISTAN'S RIGHT TO CONDUCT A
NUCLEAR TEST, WHILE CALLING UPON IT TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT.
MEANWHILE, THE LEADER OF THE PML/N'S COALITION PARTNER, THE SHIIA
TEHRIK-E-JAFRIA PAKISTAN (TJP),ALLAMA SAJJID ALI NAQVI, HAS URGED
NAWAZ TO REJECT AMERICAN HELP AND TO GO AHEAD WITH A NUCLEAR TEST.
IN A REPORT APPEARING IN THE MAY 23 ISSUE OF "THE MUSLIM," NAQVI IS
SAID TO BELIEVE THAT PAKISTAN SHOULD NOT MOVE TOWARD THE U.S. AS
THIS COULD ENDANGER ITS RELATIONS WITH ITS "TRADITIONAL ALLIES IRAN
AND CHINA."

DIFFERENCES OVER TACTICS, NOT POLICY
--------------

5. (C) BHUTTO'S CRITICISMS OF THE SHARIF GOVERNMENT HAVE BEEN
DIRECTED MORE AT ITS TACTICS IN DEALING WITH THE INDIAN THREAT THAN
AT ITS POLICY. HER PUBLIC STATEMENTS WERE ECHOED BY BABAR IN HIS
CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF MAY 26. THE PPP'S LINE APPEARS TO BE THAT
IF BENAZIR HAD BEEN PRIME MINISTER, THE INDIANS WOULD HAVE BEEN
LESS LIKELY TO TEST NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN THE FIRST PLACE. (BABAR,
FOR INSTANCE, CREDITED BENAZIR'S PREEMPTIVE DIPLOMACY IN 1995 WITH
HEADING OFF AN INDIAN TEST AT THAT TIME.) SPEAKING AT THE MAY 24
PAI MEETING IN LAHORE, BENAZIR SAID NAWAZ SHARIF'S "GOOD MAN
GUJRAL" LINE LAST YEAR HAD BROUGHT PAKISTAN TO "THE BRINK OF
DISASTER." ONCE INDIA DETONATED ITS BOMBS, BENAZIR (AND BABAR)
SAID SHARIF SHOULD HAVE TAKEN VIGOROUS ACTION TO LINE-UP
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AND CONDEMNATION OF INDIA.
BABAR TOLD POLOFF THAT SHARIF HIMSELF SHOULD HAVE GONE TO CHINA
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE INDIAN TESTS TO SEEK SUPPORT RATHER THAN
SENDING A "LOW-LEVEL" CAREER DIPLOMAT LIKE FOREIGN SECRETARY
SHAMSHAD AHMED. SHARIF HAD ALSO FAILED TO RALLY THE MUSLIM WORLD
TO PAKISTAN'S SIDE, BABAR SAID, AND HE CLAIMED THAT BENAZIR WOULD
HAVE BEEN FAR MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN NAWAZ IN WINNING WESTERN
SUPPORT. MEANWHILE, BENAZIR IS CLAIMING CREDIT FOR PAKISTAN'S
CAPABILITY OF READYING FOR A TEST IN TWO WEEKS; SHE SAID EARLIER
PAKISTAN HAD REQUIRED 30 DAYS TO READY FOR A TEST, BUT SHE HAD CUT
THAT BACK.

6. (C) SURPRISINGLY, NEITHER BABAR NOR BENAZIR HERSELF HAS WARNED
NAWAZ AGAINST POSSIBLE U.S. ATTEMPTS TO INDUCE RESTRAINT ON NUCLEAR
TESTING BY PROMISES OF AID. THE ISLAMIC PARTIES AND MOST OF THE
MAJOR URDU AND ENGLISH-LANGUAGE NEWSPAPERS HAVE CAUTIONED NAWAZ TO
BEWARE OF AMERICAN BLANDISHMENTS. BENAZIR AND THE PPP, HOWEVER,
SEEM WILLING TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE U.S. WILL DO IN RETURN FOR
PAKISTANI RESTRAINT.

7. (C) COMMENT: POLITICAL OPPORTUNISM -- NOT CONCERNS FOR WHAT
IS BEST FOR PAKISTAN -- SEEMS TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE
OPPOSITION'S UNRELENTING ATTACKS ON THE PRIME MINISTER. THE
OPPOSITION HAS BEEN IN OVERDRIVE DEPICTING NAWAZ AS INDECISIVE AND
WEAK, GIVING HIM NO CREDIT FOR TAKING TIME TO WEIGH CAREFULLY THE
IMPLICATIONS OF PAKISTAN'S CONDUCTING (OR NOT CONDUCTING) A NUCLEAR
TEST. THE OPPOSITION'S SUCCESS IN TURNING THE PUBLIC AGAINST
CONTINUED RESTRAINT REMAINS AN OPEN QUESTION. A JUST-RELEASED
GALLUP POLL, FOR EXAMPLE, REPORTS THAT OVER TWO-THIRDS OF
RESPONDENTS FAVORED A PAK NUCLEAR TEST, BUT "IN RESPONSE TO
FRIENDLY ADVICE" TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT, NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF
RESPONDENTS SAID THEY WOULD THEN FAVOR CONTINUED RESTRAINT. 77
PERCENT WERE "SATISFIED" WITH HOW NAWAZ SHARIF HAS HANDLED THE
SITUATION. (SEPTEL PROVIDES MORE DETAILED ASSESSMENT OF THE POLL.)


SIMONS