BENAZIR PROMISES MODERATION ON NUCLEAR TESTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003858


E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/25/08
TAGS: PGOV PREL MNUC IN PK
SUBJECT: BENAZIR PROMISES MODERATION ON NUCLEAR TESTING

REF: LAHORE 310

CLASSIFIED BY LAHORE PRINCIPAL OFFICER GEOFFREY R. PYATT, REASON
1.5 (D)

THIS IS LAHORE 315


1. (C) SUMMARY: MEETING MAY 25 WITH PRINCIPAL OFFICER, FORMER PRIME
MINISTER BENAZIR BHUTTO SAID SHE WOULD NO LONGER PRESS THE
GOVERNMENT TO TEST ITS NUCLEAR CAPABILITY. THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A
TIME FOR A DETONATION, BENAZIR ARGUED, BUT AT THIS STAGE A TEST
WOULD BE COUNTER TO PAKISTAN'S INTERESTS. INSTEAD, SHE SAID, THE
PPP WILL REDIRECT ITS CRITICISM OF NAWAZ SHARIF TO FOCUS ON THE
GOVERNMENT'S "INDECISION" AND "MISMANAGEMENT." BENAZIR ARGUED THAT
MAY 11 WAS A TURNING POINT IN PAKISTAN'S HISTORY WHICH REQUIRES A
FUNDAMENTAL RETHINKING OF THE COUNTRY'S SECURITY STRATEGY. SHE
PREDICTED THAT NAWAZ MAY HAVE TO BE "SACRIFICED" IN ORDER TO HEAL
THE WOUNDED PRIDE OF PAKISTAN'S MILITARY. PRINCIPAL OFFICER
CAUTIONED THAT BENAZIR'S BELLICOSE REACTION TO INDIA'S TESTS HAD
DRAWN HARSH CRITICISM IN THE WEST AND SUGGESTED THAT THE PPP STATE
PUBLICLY THAT TESTING IS TOO IMPORTANT TO BE USED AS A POLITICAL
FOOTBALL. BENAZIR DISAVOWED HER WIDELY-REPRINTED OP-ED CALLING FOR
A PREEMPTIVE MILITARY STRIKE ON INDIA, CLAIMING THAT SHE INVOKED
THIS POSSIBILITY ONLY TO ILLUSTRATE THE RANGE OF OPTIONS AVAILABLE
-- NOT AS A RECOMMENDATION FOR ACTION. ASKED ABOUT NEXT STEPS IN
THE INDO-PAK DIALOGUE, SHE RECOMMENDED A COOLING-OFF PERIOD
FOLLOWED BY NEGOTIATIONS TO RATIFY THE CURRENT DIVISION OF KASHMIR.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PRINCIPAL OFFICER MET MAY 25 AT HER REQUEST WITH FORMER
PRIME MINISTER BENAZIR BHUTTO, WHO WAS IN LAHORE FOR AN APPEARANCE
BEFORE THE HIGH COURT'S ACCOUNTABILITY BENCH. SHE WAS JOINED BY
PPP PROVINCIAL PRESIDENT RAO SIKANDER IQBAL AND COMMUNICATIONS
DIRECTOR QASIM ZIA. THIS MEETING FOLLOWED SEVERAL CONVERSATIONS IN
WHICH PPP LEADERS HAVE CLAIMED TO HAVE ACCEPTED OUR ARGUMENTS IN
FAVOR OF RESTRAINT (REFTEL) AND TO HAVE CONVINCED BENAZIR TO SOFTEN
HER RHETORIC. SENATE OPPOSITION LEADER AITZAZ AHSAN WENT SO FAR AS
TO CLAIM ON MAY 24 THAT BENAZIR HAD "TAKEN A U-TURN" AND OPENLY
OPPOSED NUCLEAR TESTING IN RECENT PPP LEADERSHIP MEETINGS.

BACK FROM THE BRINK
--------------


3. (C) ASKED ABOUT PRESS REPORTS THAT SHE HAD URGED NATION-WIDE
DEMONSTRATIONS IN FAVOR OF TESTING, BENAZIR CLAIMED THAT NO ONE IN
THE PPP WOULD CALL FOR TESTING FROM NOW ON. THE MOMENT HAS PASSED.
WE UNDERSTAND THAT A TEST NOW WOULD HAVE A DISASTROUS IMPACT ON
PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION. I CANNOT SAY
THESE THINGS PUBLICLY, BENAZIR SAID, BUT NEITHER WILL I CALL FOR A
DETONATION. AT THE OPPOSITION'S MAY 21 HYDERABAD RALLY, SHE NOTED,
THE LINES THAT GOT THE MOST APPLAUSE WERE NOT TAHIR-UL-QADRI'S CALL
FOR NUCLEAR TESTING, BUT HER OWN ATTACKS ON NAWAZ SHARIF'S ECONOMIC
LEADERSHIP AND MANHOOD. WHEN PRESSED ON THE PPP'S POSTURE, BENAZIR
CONCEDED THAT EVEN IF SHE WANTED TO MAKE A PUBLIC STATEMENT AGAINST
TESTING SHE COULD NOT, SINCE THIS WOULD BE ATTACKED BY OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE OPPOSITION ALLIANCE. WE WERE DRIVEN INTO THIS
ALLIANCE BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT REFUSED TO DEAL WITH US A
LEGITIMATE OPPOSITION IN PARLIAMENT -- SO NOW WE MUST LIVE WITH THE
CONSEQUENCES.


4. (C) MAY 11 WAS A TURNING POINT IN PAKISTAN'S HISTORY, BENAZIR
SAID. WE HAVE TO RETHINK HOW WE DEFINE OUR SECURITY AND HOW WE
LOOK AT INDIA. ACCORDING TO MY SOURCES, BENAZIR CONTINUED, THE
MILITARY LEADERSHIP UNDERSTANDS THESE CHANGED CIRCUMSTANCES AND IS
IN NO HURRY TO TEST A NUCLEAR DEVICE. HOWEVER, AT LOWER LEVELS OF
THE MILITARY THERE IS A FEELING OF WOUNDED PRIDE SIMILAR TO
SENTIMENTS AFTER THE 1971 LOSS OF BANGLADESH. "I'M AFRAID NAWAZ
MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO BE SACRIFICED TO HEAL THAT SENSE OF SHAME,"
BENAZIR ADDED, "BUT IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE WHO MIGHT TAKE HIS PLACE."


5. (C) EVEN IF I AM NOT CALLING FOR A NUCLEAR TEST, BENAZIR
SUGGESTED, NAWAZ SHARIF WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO CRITICISMS OF HIS
INDECISION IN THE FACE OF INDIA'S AGGRESSION. "NAWAZ IS TRYING TO
PUT HANDCUFFS ON ME," BENAZIR QUIPPED, "BUT I'M GOING TO PUT
BANGLES ON HIM." (NOTE: BY SUGGESTING THAT NAWAZ WEARS BANGLES, AS
SHE DID IN HYDERABAD, BENAZIR IS QUESTIONING HIS MASCULINITY -- A
DEEP INSULT IN THIS SOCIETY.)

SHIFTING THE DEBATE
--------------


6. (C) IF THE PPP HAS DECIDED NUCLEAR TESTING WOULD BE AGAINST THE
COUNTRY'S BEST INTERESTS, PRINCIPAL OFFICER SUGGESTED, THEN IT
WOULD BE HELPFUL TO MAKE THIS POINT PUBLICLY. SO FAR IN THIS
DEBATE, THE OPPOSITION HAS APPEARED TO BE MOTIVATED MORE BY
POLITICS THAN BY NATIONAL INTERESTS. AT THE VERY LEAST, THE PPP
SHOULD SIGNAL TO THE GOVERNMENT THAT THE PARTY HAS DECIDED THIS
ISSUE IS TOO IMPORTANT TO BE TREATED AS A POLITICAL FOOTBALL.
BENAZIR WAS INTRIGUED BY THIS SUGGESTION AND INSTRUCTED HER
COLLEAGUES TO FOLLOW-UP.


7. (C) PRINCIPAL OFFICER ALSO QUESTIONED BENAZIR ON HER MAY 17 LOS
ANGELES TIMES OP-ED, WHICH CONCLUDED BY DANGLING THE POSSIBILITY OF
A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE ON INDIA IN RESPONSE TO THE TESTS. BENAZIR
DISAVOWED THIS INTERPRETATION, CLAIMING THE PIECE WAS DRAFTED TO
ILLUSTRATE POSSIBLE RESPONSES, NOT AS A PRESCRIPTION FOR ACTION.
ACTUALLY, BENAZIR SAID, THE IDEA CAME FROM ROBERT MCNAMARA, WHO
SUGGESTED WHEN I WAS IN LONDON THAT A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE WOULD BE
ONE OPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION IF THE UNITED STATES WAS FACED WITH
A SIMILAR THREAT.


8. (C) ASKED ABOUT NEXT STEPS IN THE INDO-PAK DIALOGUE, BENAZIR
SUGGESTED THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A COOLING OFF PERIOD OF SEVERAL
MONTHS, AFTER WHICH NEGOTIATIONS COULD BEGIN TO MAKE THE LINE OF
CONTROL A PERMANENT BORDER. GIVEN THE NEW STRATEGIC REALITIES,
DIVIDING KASHMIR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE ONLY OPTION. SHE ASSUMED
THAT WESTERN SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR RESTRAINT WOULD
EVENTUALLY BE FOLLOWED BY PRESSURE TO COME CLEAN AND ADHERE TO THE
CTBT AND NPT. PRINCIPAL OFFICER REPLIED THAT DECISIONS ON NATIONAL
SECURITY WILL HAVE TO BE ANSWERED BY THE PAKISTANIS, NOT BY OUTSIDE
POWERS. WE HOPE THE DEBATE OVER PAKISTAN'S SECURITY WILL INCLUDE
THE WIDEST POSSIBLE SWATH OF POLITICAL OPINION, BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
A MORE CIVILIZED DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE PML AND PPP.

9 COMMENT: BENAZIR REMAINS FIRMLY FOCUSED ON THE GOAL OF DRIVING
NAWAZ SHARIF FROM OFFICE, AND IT WOULD BE OUT OF CHARACTER FOR HER
TO PASS UP AN OPPORTUNITY TO EAT AWAY AT HIS PUBLIC BASE. HOWEVER,
UNLIKE MOST IN THE OPPOSITION, SHE UNDERSTANDS THE LASTING DAMAGE
THAT WOULD BE DONE BY A NUCLEAR TEST, AND APPEARS GENUINE IN HER
VIEW THAT PAKISTAN SHOULD NOT NOW TEST. CRITICISM FROM HER MORE
COURAGEOUS PARTY COLLEAGUES AND ADVISERS IN THE U.S. MAY ALSO HAVE
HELPED TO MODERATE HER OPINION. THIS SHIFT MAY BUY THE GOVERNMENT
A LITTLE MANEUVERING ROOM, BUT NOT MUCH. INDEED, BENAZIR'S NEW
TACTIC OF QUESTIONING NAWAZ' MANHOOD MAY PROVE A POWERFUL CATALYST
TOWARDS THE NUCLEAR TEST THAT SHE NOW CLAIMS TO OPPOSE.


SIMONS