Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
98CARACAS539
1998-02-25 13:30:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Caracas
Cable title:  

HUGO CHAVEZ CELEBRATES "DAY OF DIGNITY"

Tags:  PGOV VE 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 251330Z FEB 98
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9822
INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 
AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 
AMEMBASSY LIMA 
AMEMBASSY QUITO 
USINT HAVANA 
CIA WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
SECDEF WASHDC
USIA WASHDC 1441
USCINCSO MIAMI FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000539 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/08
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: HUGO CHAVEZ CELEBRATES "DAY OF DIGNITY"

REF: (A) 97 CARACAS 4453 (B) CARACAS 254 (C) CARACAS 265

CLASSIFIED BY THOMAS A. SHANNON, POLITICAL COUNSELOR.
REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000539


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/09/08
TAGS: PGOV VE
SUBJECT: HUGO CHAVEZ CELEBRATES "DAY OF DIGNITY"

REF: (A) 97 CARACAS 4453 (B) CARACAS 254 (C) CARACAS 265

CLASSIFIED BY THOMAS A. SHANNON, POLITICAL COUNSELOR.
REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) FORMER COUP LEADER AND PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HUGO CHAVEZ
CELEBRATED A "DAY OF DIGNITY" ON FEBRUARY 4 (4F),THE SIXTH
ANNIVERSARY OF HIS COUP ATTEMPT. THIS CELEBRATION PROVIDED US AN
OPPORTUNITY TO OBSERVE CHAVEZ CAMPAIGNING AT THREE EVENTS: MASS AT
THE NATIONAL CATHEDRAL, A WREATH LAYING AT THE STATUE OF NATIONAL
HERO SIMON BOLIVAR, AND A POLITICAL RALLY AT PLAZA CARACAS.
CHAVEZ, WHO HAD EARLIER CLAIMED HE WOULD DRAW 50,000, FOLLOWERS TO
THE PLAZA CARACAS DREW ONLY BETWEEN 5,000 AND 6,000 OF WHICH A MERE
1,000 TO 1,500 WERE AVID SUPPORTERS. WHILE CHAVEZ CLEARLY APPEALS
TO SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE "MARGINAL" AND LOWER CLASSES, HE HAS
NOT DEMONSTRATED AN ABILITY SO FAR TO BROADEN HIS BASE OF SUPPORT.
BEGINNING ON THE DAY HE REGISTERED HIS PARTY, CHAVEZ LAID THE
GROUNDWORK FOR HIS "DAY OF DIGNITY" BY ORGANIZING A SERIES OF
RALLIES AND APPEARANCES IN AND AROUND CARACAS (REFTEL C). CHAVEZ
FAILED TO CAPITALIZE ON THIS PREPARATORY WORK THOUGH, AND HAD
LITTLE NEW TO SAY. INDEED, CHAVEZ' CELEBRATION OF THE ANNIVERSARY
OF HIS COUP ATTEMPT IS REMARKABLE FOR HOW LITTLE NEWS IT GENERATED.
END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
MASS AT THE NATIONAL CATHEDRAL AND A VISIT TO THE PLAZA BOLIVAR
-------------- --------------


2. (C) CHAVEZ BEGAN HIS "DAY OF DIGNITY" WITH AN 11:00 A.M.
WREATH LAYING CEREMONY AT THE TOMB OF NATIONAL HERO SIMON BOLIVAR
AT THE NATIONAL PANTHEON. AT 3:00 P.M., HE ATTENDED A MASS WITH
HIS SUPPORTERS AT THE NATIONAL CATHEDRAL WHICH IS LOCATED ON PLAZA
BOLIVAR. POLOFF OBSERVED THAT THE CATHEDRAL WAS FILLED TO
CAPACITY. AFTER MASS, CHAVEZ MOVED TO THE CENTER OF THE PLAZA TO
THE EQUESTRIAN STATUE OF SIMON BOLIVAR TO ADDRESS A CROWD OF ABOUT
1,500. CHAVEZ CAMPAIGN WORKERS WERE VERY CAREFUL TO MAINTAIN PEACE
AND ORDER, AND USED BULLHORNS TO ASK THE CROWD TO REMAIN CALM AND
"RESPECTFUL ON THIS DAY OF DIGNITY." AFTER LAYING A WREATH AT THE
BASE OF THE STATUE, CHAVEZ DECLARED THAT THE GOAL OF HIS CANDIDACY
IS TO ACHIEVE "A MORE PERFECT DEMOCRACY AND HAPPINESS FOR ALL."
CHAVEZ THEN CALLED FOR "RENOVATION AND REBIRTH TO (ENABLE)
VENEZUELA TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF BOLIVAR BY THE YEAR 2000." HE
DID NOT ENUNCIATE WHAT THE GOALS OF BOLIVAR ARE. CAMPAIGN SIGNS AT

THE PLAZA CARRIED THE SLOGAN "FOR A PATRIOTIC DEMOCRACY."

-------------- -
ONLY 5,000 TURN OUT FOR RALLY AT PLAZA CARACAS
-------------- -


3. (C) POLOFF AND PRESS REPORTS ESTIMATE THAT ABOUT 5,000 PEOPLE
ATTENDED CHAVEZ' RALLY AT PLAZA CARACAS. THE THEME OF THE RALLY
WAS "IT IS THE PEOPLE'S TURN (LE TOCA AL PUEBLO)." CHAVEZ HAD
EARLIER (REFTEL C) PROMISED THAT HE WOULD DRAW 50,000 PEOPLE TO
THIS RALLY WHICH WAS TO MARK THE COMPLETION OF SERIES OF RALLIES
HELD IN AND AROUND CARACAS OVER THE PREVIOUS THREE WEEKS. POLOFF
ESTIMATES THAT ONLY 1,000 TO 1,500 OF THE PEOPLE PRESENT WERE
CONFIRMED CHAVEZ SUPPORTS. MOST OF THESE SUPPORTERS WERE FROM THE
WORKING OR MARGINAL CLASSES, AND MANY WERE FROM OUTSIDE CARACAS.
MOST WHO ATTENDED THE RALLY WERE CURIOUS BY-STANDERS RATHER THAN
ACTIVE PARTICIPANTS IN THE RALLY, AND MANY ONLY PASSED BY DURING
RUSH HOUR ON THEIR WAY HOME FROM WORK.


4. (C) CHAVEZ SUPPORTERS MANNED TABLES IN THE SQUARE PASSING OUT
FIFTH REPUBLIC MOVEMENT(MVR) LITERATURE AND REGISTERING NEW PARTY
MEMBER. REGISTRANTS WERE ASKED TO INDICATE WHICH "FRONT THEY
WOULD BE JOINING IN THE FIGHT TO "REJUVENAE VENEZUELA AND
VINDICATE THE DREAM OF BOLIVAR." EACH "FRONT" CORRESPONDS TO ONE
OF VENEZUELA'S TATES. NEW PARTY MEMBERS WERE ALSO ASSIGNED TO
DTACHMENTS TO MOBILIZE THE "ABSTAINERS" TO TURN OUTFOR CHAVEZ ON
ELECTION DAY. PRIOR TO CHAVEZ' ARIVAL, ANNOUNCERS CALLED FORTH
OFFICERS WHO PARTIIPATED IN CHAVEZ' COUP ATTEMPT INDICATING THE
OBECTIVES SEIZED BY THE OFFICERS.


5. (C) WHEN CHVEZ ARRIVED AT THE RALLY, HE BRIEFLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THE CROWD AND PROMPTLY PROCEEDED TO ASSEMBLE JOURALISTS AND
CAMERAMEN AROUND HIM. AFTER ABOUT TWNTY MINUTES OBSERVING THE
BACKS OF CAMERAMEN, TH CROWD BEGAN TO WHISTLE AND CALL FOR CHAVEZ
TO ADRESS HIM. CHAVEZ USHERED THE NEWSMEN AWAY, AND TUNED TOWARD
THE CROWD WHILE DONNING HIS SIGNATURERED BERET. LIKE POLITICAL
RALLIES THE WORLD OVE, THERE WERE BANNERS, BALLOONS CORRESPONDING
TO HE COLORS OF THE FLAG, AND BABY KISSING -- EXCEPT HERE THE BABY
WORE CAMOUFLAGE.

--------------
AND THE NEWS IS? -- NO NEWS
--------------


6. (C) DURING HIS SPEECH, CHAVEZ FAILED TO CAPITALIZE ON THREE
WEEKS OF PREPARATORY WORK BY SEIZING THE OPPORTUNITY OF THIS
ANNIVERSARY TO MAKE ANY NEW PUBLIC STATEMENTS. ONCE AGAIN, CHAVEZ
ASSERTED THAT HE DID NOT LAUNCH A COUP AGAINST DEMOCRACY SINCE
DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST IN VENEZUELA. CHAVEZ RECEIVED THE MOST
APPLAUSE FOR HIS OFT STATED REMARK THAT HE ACTED "AGAINST
CORRUPTOCRACY, AGAINST THE GENOCIDE OF [IMPEACHED PRESIDENT] CARLOS
ANDRES PEREZ." CHAVEZ CONTINUED, "THE FOURTH OF FEBRUARY HAS NOT
DIED, AND NOW COMES ANOTHER BATTLE OF THE PEOPLE, THE ONE WHICH
WILL LIBERATE [THE NATION] -- THE SIXTH OF DECEMBER [ELECTION
DAY]." COMMENTING THAT HE IS NOW "OPERATING ON THE ENEMY TERRAIN"
AGAINST THE DEMOCRATIC ACTION (AD),CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT (COPEI),AND
MOVEMENT TOWARD SOCIALISM (MAS) PARTIES AND AGAINST FRONT-RUNNER
IRENE SAEZ, CHAVEZ SAID "THE WEAPONS [WE WILL USE ON ELECTION DAY]
ARE THE SAME: THE POPULAR VOTE." CHAVEZ ASSERTED THAT NINETY
PERCENT OF THE POPULATION SUPPORTED HIS COUP ATTEMPT. CHAVEZ
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE DISSOLUTION OF THE "DO NOTHING" CONGRESS,
AND FOR THE CREATION OF A CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS (CONSTITUYENTE).
HE DID ADD THAT HE WOULD RENOUNCE THE PRESIDENCY IF THE PEOPLE DID
NOT SUPPORT HIS CALL FOR A CONSTITUTIONAL CONGRESS, SOMETHING
CHAVEZ CONSIDERS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.


7. (U) RATHER THAN COVERING THE RALLY DIRECTLY, THE CARACAS'
LEADING DAILY "EL UNIVERSAL" CHOSE INSTEAD TO RUN A FULL PAGE
ARTICLE ENTITLED "CHAVISTAS COMMEMORATE THE COUP IGNORING THE
JUDGEMENTS AGAINST IT." CHRISTIAN DEMOCRAT GUSTAVO TARRE BRICENO,
ASKING RHETORICALLY IF IT WAS NECESSARY FOR THREE HUNDRED PEOPLE TO
DIE IN THE COUP, ASKED "WOULD IT NOT HAVE BEEN BETTER IF CHAVEZ,
INSTEAD OF LAUNCHING A COUP, FOUNDED A PARTY INSTEAD?" SOME
COMMENTATORS NOTED THAT THE COUP AWOKE VENEZUELA'S POLITICAL
ESTABLISHMENT TO THE NEED FOR A NEW NATIONAL PROJECT AND FOR NEW
LEADERSHIP SO THAT COUPS COULD BE AVOIDED IN THE FUTURE.
HISTORIAN MANUEL CABALLERO COMMENTED, "IT APPEARS TO ME TO BE THE
HEIGHT OF CYNICISM THAT THE CHAVISTAS ARE CELEBRATING THE 4F
(FOURTH OF FEBRUARY) AS A DAY OF NATIONAL DIGNITY WHEN THE OPPOSITE
IS TRUE. . . . [HE] IS A TRAITOR OF THE NATION (PATRIA). . . .
CHAVEZ IS CIVIL WAR." OTHER CARACAS DAILIES RAN BRIEF ARTICLES
WHICH ESSENTIALLY NOTED THE EVENT.

--------------
27N TO SUPPORT CHAVEZ?
--------------


8. (U) THE CARACAS DAILY "EL GLOBO" INTERVIEWED A PARTICIPANT IN
THE FAILED NOVEMBER 27, 1992 COUP ATTEMPT, REAR ADMIRAL LUIS
CABRERA AGUIRRE, REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY THAT PARTICIPANTS IN THE
27N WOULD SUPPORT CHAVEZ. CABRERA, WHO WAS PRESENT AT THE RALLY,
SAID TO "EL GLOBO," "WE HOPE TO ESTABLISH A BLOCK OF OPINION, NOT
A POLITICAL PARTY, THAT IS INTENDED TO INFORM ALL OF THE VISION OF
THE COUNTRY THAT WE HAVE."

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) CHAVEZ'S FAILURE TO GENERATE LARGE CROWDS FOR HIS "DAY OF
DIGNITY" INDICATES THAT HIS PARTY IS HAVING PROBLEMS MOBILIZING
SUPPORTERS. HOWEVER, THESE PROBLEMS DID NOT UNDERMINE HIS CENTRAL
PURPOSE: TO WIN PUBLICITY. BY CHOOSING RELATIVELY SMALL LOCATIONS
FOR HIS THREE EVENTS -- THE CATHEDRAL, PLAZA BOLIVAR, AND PLAZA
CARACAS -- EACH EVENT APPEARED ON CAMERA TO BE WELL ATTENDED.
RECENT POLLIN SHOWS THAT CHAVEZ HAS PUSHED HIS POPULARITY LEVEL TO
11 PERCENT, PUTTING HIM IN SECOND PLACE BEHIND IRENE SAEZ. WITH
THE MAJOR PARTIES YET TO IDENTIFY THEIR CANDIDATES, THE PRESS HAS
FOCUSED ON SAEZ AND CHAVEZ AS THE CENTRAL PERSONALITIES OF THE
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, AND REFERS TO THEM AS THE "THE BEAUTY AND
THE BEAST."


MAISTO