Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
98BEIRUT3570
1998-09-29 14:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR'S CALLS ON PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR KISL MEPP LE 
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O 291420Z SEP 98
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7429
INFO AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS PRIORITY 
AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV 
AMEMBASSY AMMAN 
AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003570 

NICOSIA FOR ILMG

E.O. 12958: DECL 10/01/08
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KISL MEPP LE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S CALLS ON PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 003570

NICOSIA FOR ILMG

E.O. 12958: DECL 10/01/08
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KISL MEPP LE
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S CALLS ON PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR SATTERFIELD. REASONS 1.5
(B AND D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: DURING THE AMBASSADOR'S INTRODUCTORY CALLS
AT THE PARLIAMENT, SPEAKER NABIH BERRI AND HIS DEPUTY ELIE
FERZLI INDICATED THAT LAF COMMANDER GENERAL EMILE LAHUD IS
THE MOST OBVIOUS CHOICE TO BECOME THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF
LEBANON. THEY HEDGED THEIR BETS BY NOTING THAT SEVERAL
OTHER CANDIDATES (SUCH AS NASSIB LAHUD AND JEAN OBEID) ALSO
HAD A CHANCE TO BECOME PRESIDENT. BOTH EXPRESSED THE NEED
TO ELECT A STRONG PRESIDENT TO COUNTERBALANCE THE POWER OF
PRIME MINISTER RAFIQ AL-HARIRI. THEY ALSO ASSERTED THAT THE
ELECTION OF A MILITARY LEADER WOULD NOT ENDANGER "DEMOCRACY"
IN LEBANON. END SUMMARY.


3. (C) AMBASSADOR PAID A COURTESY CALL ON SPEAKER BERRI ON
24 SEPTEMBER. AFTER EXPRESSING CONCERN ABOUT POLITICAL
TURMOIL IN WASHINGTON WHICH HE CHARACTERIZED AS "A PLOT TO
UNDERMINE THE PRESIDENT," BERRI TURNED TO THE SITUATION IN
SOUTHERN LEBANON AND DOMESTIC LEBANESE POLITICS.

--------------
SITUATION IN THE SOUTH: APPRECIATION FOR ILMG
--------------


4. (C) BERRI EXPRESSED GREAT APPRECIATION FOR THE ROLE OF
THE ISRAEL-LEBANON MONITORING GROUP (ILMG) IN CALMING DOWN
THE SITUATION IN THE SOUTH. HE SAID THAT THE LOCAL
POPULATION'S ATTACHMENT TO ILMG HAS BECOME SIMILAR TO THAT
TOWARDS UNIFIL. "IF WE DID NOT HAVE THE ILMG, WE DON'T KNOW
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE SOUTH," BERRI EMPHASIZED. BERRI
ALSO MENTIONED THAT HE ALWAYS URGES THE RESISTANCE (I.E.,
HIZBALLAH AND AMAL) NOT TO LAUNCH ATTACKS FROM INSIDE
VILLAGES. SUCH ADVICE, IF HEEDED, WOULD DEPRIVE ISRAEL OF
AN EXCUSE TO RETURN FIRE AGAINST THESE VILLAGES. BERRI
BELIEVED THE SITUATION, ALBEIT UNSTABLE, WAS BETTER THAN IN
THE PAST AND THAT DAMAGES WERE LESS THAN LAST YEAR. HE WAS
PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE MEPP.

--------------
EMILE LAHUD AND PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS
--------------


5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR CONGRATULATED BERRI ON HIS RECENT
REELECTION TO THE LEADERSHIP OF THE AMAL MOVEMENT.
REFLECTING ON HIZBALLAH AS A RIVAL FOR POLITICAL PROMINENCE,
BERRI SAID THAT "ISRAEL WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING
HIZBALLAH ALIVE," BY CONTINUING -- THROUGH ITS OCCUPATION OF

THE SOUTH -- TO PROVIDE A PLATFORM FROM WHICH HIZBALLAH
COULD ADVANCE ITS POLITICAL STANDING AS THE "NATIONAL
RESISTANCE." BERRI WAS DISMISSIVE OF HIZBALLAH'S ABILITY TO
SUSTAIN A PROMINENT POLITICAL ROLE ONCE THE "RESISTANCE"
ENDED. (COMMENT: THIS STRIKES US AS AN ALTOGETHER TOO ROSY
VIEW OF A LIKELY POST-ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL. SHI'A POLITICS:
AMAL -- AND BERRI IN PARTICULAR -- FACE SERIOUS CREDIBILITY
AND IDENTITY PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTH AND ON A NATIONAL LEVEL.
END COMMENT.)


6. (C) TURNING TO PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS, BERRI MENTIONED
THAT GENERAL EMILE LAHUD APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
BECOMING THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF LEBANON. HE NOTED IN PASSING
THAT HE HAD ONCE RECOMMENDED NAMING EMILE LAHUD AS HEAD OF
THE ARMY DURING AMINE GEMAYEL'S TERM IN OFFICE IN THE EARLY
1980S, BUT WAS OVERRULED IN FAVOR OF GEMAYEL'S SELECTION OF
MICHEL AOUN. OTHER CANDIDATES SUCH AS NASSIB LAHUD AND JEAN
OBEID ALSO HAD A CHANCE THOUGH, HE QUICKLY HEDGED. BERRI
SAID HE WANTED TO FINISH WITH THE ELECTION BEFORE OCTOBER
15, BECAUSE THERE WERE OTHER IMPORTANT LEGISLATIVE MATTERS
BEFORE PARLIAMENT.


7. (C) BERRI POSTULATED THAT BUILDING "INSTITUTIONS" WAS
THE BEST WAY TO FIGHT ENDURING SECTARIANISM WITHIN THE
LEBANESE BODY POLITIC; HE ALSO DISCOUNTED THE NOTION THAT
LAHUD'S ELECTION MIGHT RESULT IN THE POLITICIZATION OF THE
ARMY. ASKED IF A LAHUD PRESIDENCY RAISED THE SPECTRE IN
LEBANESE MINDS OF ARMY (OR MORE SPECIFICALLY G-2 MUKHABARAT)
INTERFERENCE IN DOMESTIC POLITICS -- THE LEGENDARY "DUALITY"
OR "IZDIWAJIYAH" OF PRESIDENT FUAD SHIBAB'S RULE -- BERRI
STATED FORCEFULLY THAT LAHUD "WOULD BE AN EISENHOWER," AND
SEPARATE HIMSELF FROM THE LAF ONCE IN OFFICE. "HE KNOWS
NEITHER WE (THE POLITICIANS) NOR THE SYRIANS WOULD ACCEPT
ANY "DUALITY." (COMMENT: OTHER PROMINENT LEBANESE
POLITICAL FIGURES -- AND WE -- ARE LESS CERTAIN, GIVEN THE
PROMINENT ROLE NOW PLAYED BY THE LAF G-2 (AT LAHUD'S -- AND
UNDOUBTEDLY SYRIAN -- DIRECTION) IN MONITORING POLITICAL
DEVELOPMENTS AND PERSONALITIES. END COMMENT.)


8. (C) BERRI HIGHLIGHTED THREE MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS FOR A
SUCCESSFUL PRESIDENT: CREDIBLE TO THE CHRISTIANS, ACCEPTABLE
TO THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY AND SATISFACTORY TO THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY (I.E., THE SYRIANS AND OTHER
"FRIENDS"). HE EMPHASIZED THAT WHILE OTHER CANDIDATES MIGHT
EXCEL IN SOME OF THESE AREAS, ONLY LAHUD EMBODIED ALL THREE
CHARACTERISTICS.


9. (C) BERRI SAID HE WANTED TO HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO WOULD
BE ABLE TO BRING THE CHRISTIANS BACK INTO THE POLITICAL AND
ECONOMICAL LIFE OF THE NATION. BERRI INSISTED THAT
CHRISTIANS HAD AN IMPORTANT ROLE TO PLAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS WHICH WERE CONDUCTED LAST MAY/JUNE.
CHRISTIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE BALLOTING DOUBLED THAT OF THE
SHI'A IN PERCENTAGE TERMS AND REACHED 93 PERCENT
PARTICIPATION IN THE 21 CHRISTIAN MUNICIPALITIES IN SOUTH
LEBANON. STRONGER CHRISTIAN LEADERSHIP WOULD HELP TO OFFSET
THE OVERBEARING INFLUENCE OF THE PRIME MINISTER "AND CREATE
A BALANCE" IN THE (TRIPARTITE) PRESIDENCY (I.E., AN ALLY FOR
ME AGAINST HARIRI). LAUNCHING INTO A WELL-REHEARSED
CRITIQUE OF THE PM, BERRI SAID HARIRI WAS NOT "A MAN OF
INSTITUTIONS." IN A FINAL JAB AT THE PRIME MINISTER, BERRI
CLOSED SAYING, "HARIRI IS IMPORTANT FOR THE COUNTRY BECAUSE
OF HIS INTERNATIONAL STATURE, BUT HARIRI DEALS WITH DOMESTIC
ISSUES LIKE A PRINCE IN SAUDI ARABIA. WE HAVE NO PRINCES
HERE."

-------------- --------------
DEPUTY SPEAKER FERZLI ON SYRIAN INTEREST IN THE ELECTION
-------------- --------------


10. (C) ILY FERZLI, THE GREEK ORTHODOX DEPUTY SPEAKER WHO
HAS VERY CLOSE TIES WITH THE SYRIANS BUT LIMITED POLITICAL
CREDIBILITY IN LEBANON, TOLD THE AMBASSADOR IN A SUBSEQUENT
MEETING THAT GENERAL LAHUD HAD A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME THE
NEXT PRESIDENT. REPEATEDLY EMPHASIZING TO THE AMBASSADOR
THAT HE, FERZLI, SHOULD BE SEEN AS A CHANNEL TO THE SYRIANS
AND POINTING OUT HOW INTIMATE HIS CONTACTS WERE WITH SENIOR
SYRIAN OFFICIALS, FERZLI STATED THAT LAHUD WAS BACKED BY
SYRIA, AND THAT WITHOUT SYRIAN SUPPORT LAHUD WOULD NOT HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO BUILD A UNIFIED ARMY. "SYRIA PROTECTED LAHUD
AND MADE HIM A MINI-PRESIDENT," FERZLI ADDED. FERZLI ECHOED
BERRI'S COMMENT THAT THE ELECTION OF A MILITARY LEADER WOULD
NOT ENDANGER "DEMOCRACY IN LEBANON."


11. (C) FERZLI ALSO HEDGED HIS BETS, HOWEVER, NOTING THAT
"NOTHING IS FINAL." AS IF TO EMPHASIZE THAT POINT, FERZLI
COMMENTED THAT NEITHER BERRI NOR HARIRI HAD A REAL INTEREST
IN HAVING A STRONG PRESIDENT. IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMBASSADOR'S QUESTION ABOUT HIZBALLAH PREFERENCES, FERZLI
SAID THEY DO NOT WANT A STRONG PRESIDENT EITHER. QUERIED ON
WHETHER LAHUD HAD A KNOWN PROGRAM HE INTENDED TO IMPLEMENT
IF ELECTED, FERZLI SAID EMPHATICALLY THAT LAHUD SHOULD NOT
HAVE A "PROGRAM," SINCE THAT WOULD ONLY ENGAGE HIM IN PETTY
DOMESTIC "POLITICAL SQUABBLES." (READ: WOULD INTERFERE
WITH THE ROLE OF THE PARLIAMENT.) INSTEAD, THE NEW
PRESIDENT SHOULD BE A MORAL EXEMPLAR -- UNLIKE HRAWI -- AND
ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE CREDIBILITY AND INTEGRITY OF STATE
INSTITUTIONS.

-------------- --------------
PROSPECTS FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE HINGE ON THE PRESIDENCY
-------------- --------------


12. (C) FERZLI WAS OPTIMISTIC THAT BETTER GOVERNMENT WAS
POSSIBLE IN LEBANON IF THERE ARE "ANGELS" AT THE LEVEL OF
THE TROIKA. "IF WE HAVE DEVILS AT THE TROIKA LEVEL, ALL
OTHER OFFICIALS WILL ALSO TURN INTO DEVILS," FERZLI SURMISED
WRYLY. FERZLI EXPECTED THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, UPON THE
RECOMMENDATION OF PRESIDENT HRAWI, TO CALL FOR AN
EXTRAORDINARY SESSION OF PARLIAMENT TO CONSIDER A
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT THAT WOULD PERMIT SENIOR CIVIL
SERVANTS SUCH AS LAHUD TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT. IF THAT
SCENARIO DOES NOT TRANSPIRE, THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT CAN
PROPOSE SUCH A SESSION ONCE PARLIAMENT CONVENES ON OCTOBER

20. AFTER OCTOBER 24, HOWEVER, PARLIAMENT CAN NO LONGER
CALL A SPECIAL SESSION TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION. (NOTE:
THE LEBANESE CONSTITUTION IS COMPLEX ON THIS PROCEDURAL
ISSUE, AND IT NOT INTERNALLY CONSISTENT. IN FACT, MOST
LEBANESE TAKE IT FOR GRANTED THAT A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
WITH BROAD SUPPORT COULD BE PASSED WHENEVER NECESSARY,
THOUGH THE PERIOD BEFORE OCTOBER 24 WOULD SEEM MOST
CONVENIENT. END NOTE)

-------------- --------------
SYRIAN STRATEGY IN LEBANON: WIN OVER THE CHRISTIANS
-------------- --------------


13. (C) FERZLI BELIEVED THAT SYRIA WAS NOW "INSIDE THE
LEBANESE REGIME," AND NO LONGER HAD AN INTEREST IN
DESTABILIZING LEBANON. FERZLI ALSO STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE
OF THE SYRIAN ROLE IN LEBANON, BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER A
PEACE AGREEMENT IS CONCLUDED BETWEEN THE ARABS AND ISRAEL.
HE SAID "SYRIA, AND IN PARTICULAR, HAFEZ AL-ASAD, IS THE
ONLY ONE WHO CAN GIVE LEGITIMACY TO ANY PEACE BETWEEN THE
ARABS AND ISRAEL". HE ALSO STATED THAT SYRIAN MILITARY
PREPAREDNESS IN LEBANON WAS A GUARANTEE FOR PEACE.


14. (C) FINALLY, FERZLI -- GETTING IN ONE LAST PRO-SARG
POINT -- ARGUED THAT ASAD WAS A "STRATEGIC THINKER" WHO
WANTS TO IMPROVE HIS RELATIONS WITH THE WESTERN WORLD,
ESPECIALLY THE U.S. THE PROVING GROUND FOR ASAD TO PROMOTE
HIS IMAGE ABROAD IS IN LEBANON. FERZLI BELIEVED THE SYRIANS
WANTED TO ACHIEVE A RAPPROCHEMENT WITH THE CHRISTIANS OF
LEBANON TO FACILITATE THIS END.

--------------
AMBASSADOR'S PRESS COMMENTS
--------------


15. (U) THE AMBASSADOR MADE BRIEF REMARKS TO THE PRESS
FOLLOWING HIS MEETINGS AT THE PARLIAMENT, NOTING THAT "WE
HAVE CLEARLY UNDERLINED OUR SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC
INSTITUTIONS AND THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS IN LEBANON. THE
U.S. HAS MADE CLEAR THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS A
LEBANESE CHOICE. WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE LEBANESE
ELECTIONS."

SATTERFIELD