Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
97ROME5198
1997-06-11 16:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Rome
Cable title:  

ITALY: A MORE ACTIVIST POLICY TOWARD ROGUES

Tags:  ETTC PREL UNSC PTER KPRP IR IZ LY IT 
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P 111609Z JUN 97
FM AMEMBASSY ROME
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8123
INFO AMCONSUL NAPLES 
AMCONSUL MILAN 
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 
ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY WARSAW 
AMCONSUL FLORENCE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 005198 

DEPT FOR EUR/WE; EUR/ERA; EB/ECS; NEA/NGA; NEA/ENA
DEPT PLS PASS TO IRAN COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/07
TAGS: ETTC PREL UNSC PTER KPRP IR IZ LY IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: A MORE ACTIVIST POLICY TOWARD ROGUES

REF: (A) ROME 167; (B) ROME 269; (C) ROME 565; (D) ROME 2005;
(E) ROME 4433; (F) ROME 3754; (G) ROME 4195; (H) ROME 2752
(AND PREVIOUS); (K) ROME 3498; (L) ROME 1952; (M) ROME 2566;
(N) 96ROME12210; (O) 96ROME10301; (P) ROME 4641 (Q) 96ROME 9494

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM JAMES CUNNINGHAM. REASON 1.5 (B)(D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 005198

DEPT FOR EUR/WE; EUR/ERA; EB/ECS; NEA/NGA; NEA/ENA
DEPT PLS PASS TO IRAN COLLECTIVE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/07
TAGS: ETTC PREL UNSC PTER KPRP IR IZ LY IT
SUBJECT: ITALY: A MORE ACTIVIST POLICY TOWARD ROGUES

REF: (A) ROME 167; (B) ROME 269; (C) ROME 565; (D) ROME 2005;
(E) ROME 4433; (F) ROME 3754; (G) ROME 4195; (H) ROME 2752
(AND PREVIOUS); (K) ROME 3498; (L) ROME 1952; (M) ROME 2566;
(N) 96ROME12210; (O) 96ROME10301; (P) ROME 4641 (Q) 96ROME 9494

CLASSIFIED BY: DCM JAMES CUNNINGHAM. REASON 1.5 (B)(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: RECENT GOI ACTIVITY SUGGESTS ITALY IS
PURSUING MORE ACTIVIST POLICIES TOWARD THE SO-CALLED "ROGUE"
STATES: IRAN, IRAQ, AND LIBYA. ACCORDING TO THE MFA, ITALY
HAS, IN FACT, A SINGLE, BROAD POLICY FOR THESE COUNTRIES,
CENTERED UPON THE BELIEF THAT ENGAGEMENT, NOT ISOLATION, IS
THE BEST WAY TO MODERATE "ROGUE" BEHAVIOR AND SPURRED ON BY
THE DESIRE TO PROMOTE FUTURE ECONOMIC/COMMERCIAL TIES AS WELL
AS SECURE ITALIAN ENERGY SUPPLIES. FOREIGN MINISTER DINI HAS
SAID ISOLATING TEHRAN, BAGHDAD, AND TRIPOLI WILL NOT SOLVE
ANYTHING -- AND THAT A "GLOBAL AND PRODUCTIVE APPROACH BASED
ON DIALOGUE" IS NEEDED. ITALY'S DESIRE TO EXPAND COMMERCIAL
TIES, ALONG WITH ITS ENERGY DEPENDENCE, COMPLEMENT DINI'S
PERSPECTIVE. THE GOI KNOWS THAT ITS POSITIONS VIS-A-VIS IRAN,
IRAQ, AND LIBYA IRRITATE THE U.S., AND HAS BEEN CAREFUL NOT TO
PUSH THE ENVELOPE TOO FAR. ITALY BELIEVES ITS POLICIES ARE IN
LINE WITH THE ACTIONS OF OTHER EU MEMBERS, SUCH AS GERMANY AND
FRANCE, AND IS NEWLY WILLING TO CHARACTERIZE POLICY
DIFFERENCES WITH THE U.S. AS "IRRECONCILABLE." WE ARE NOT
GOING TO FIND MUCH TO AGREE ON WHEN WE GET BEYOND
GENERALITIES. WE HAVE HAD SUCCESS, NONETHELESS, IN DEFLECTING
ITALIAN POLICY, AND BY CONTINUING TO LEAN INTO ITALIAN
POLITICIANS, AND BY REMINDING THEM OF THEIR INTERNATIONAL
OBLIGATIONS, WE CAN CONTINUE TO CONDITION ITALIAN
BEHAVIOR...UP TO A POINT. END SUMMARY.


DINI'S PERSPECTIVE
--------------


2. (U) FM DINI OUTLINED HIS VIEW TOWARD THE ROGUE STATES IN A
DECEMBER 1996 ARTICLE (WRITTEN BY MFA MIDDLE EAST DIRECTOR
CLAUDIO PACIFICO AND HIS DEPUTY, DIEGO BRASIOLI) IN THE TRADE
MAGAZINE "ENERGY." IN SHORT, DINI SAID THAT ISOLATING IRAN,
IRAQ, AND LIBYA BEHIND "HIGH WALLS OF SAND" WILL NOT SOLVE

ANYTHING -- AND THAT A "GLOBAL AND PRODUCTIVE APPROACH BASED
ON DIALOGUE" IS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, HE ARGUED, THERE'S A RISK
THAT A DIVIDE WILL DEVELOP ON "DEMOGRAPHIC, CULTURAL, AND
ECONOMIC" LINES BETWEEN THE TWO SHORES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN.
DINI OUTLINED THE "INTERESTS IN PLAY," NOTING THAT SIX OF
ITALY'S TOP SEVEN OIL SUPPLIERS ARE IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND
NORTH AFRICA.


IRAN: MYKONOS DELAYS REOPENING?
--------------


3. (C) THE MYKONOS TRIAL VERDICTS HAVE INTERRUPTED THE EU'S
RELATIONS WITH IRAN, AND HAVE SLOWED -- FOR NOW -- ITALY'S
PUSH FOR BROADER ECONOMIC/COMMERCIAL RELATIONS THERE. THE GOI
WAS NOT DISPLEASED TO FIND ITSELF FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
IN MAY AS THE ONLY EU PARTNER WITH AN AMBASSADOR IN PLACE BUT
WAS DEEPLY PUZZLED BY IRANIAN FM VELAYATI'S REFUSAL TO SEE
AMBASSADOR ORTONA. (NOTE: ORTONA WAS SUBSEQUENTLY RECALLED TO
SUPPORT EU SOLIDARITY.) IN JANUARY, VELAYATI MADE A HIGHLY
PUBLICIZED TRIP TO ROME WHERE HE MET WITH PRIME MINISTER PRODI
AND DINI (REFS A-B). THE APPARENT PURPOSE OF THE VISIT WAS TO
RELAUNCH BILATERAL ECONOMIC AND COMMERCIAL RELATIONS. ONE
PRESS REPORT INDICATED THAT POLITICAL APPROVAL HAD BEEN GIVEN
FOR A GRADUAL AND LIMITED OPENING OF EXPORT CREDIT INSURANCE
BY ITALY'S EXPORT CREDIT AGENCY, SACE. VELAYATI TOLD THE
PRESS THAT "ITALY CAN BE ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT COMMERCIAL,
ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PARTNERS OF IRAN." ACCORDING TO THE
PRESS, IRAN WOULD OFFER ITALY CONTRACTS FOR USD 12 BILLION AS
PART OF IRAN'S 1995-2000 DEVELOPMENT PLAN.


4. (C) BEFORE THE MYKONOS VERDICTS, THE GOI WAS EXPLORING HOW
IT MIGHT REOPEN OFFICIAL TRADE CREDITS TO TEHRAN WITHOUT
UPSETTING THE U.S. (REF C). AMONG THE OPTIONS, THE MFA WAS
WEIGHING ROLLING OVER IRANIAN DEBT REPAYMENTS INTO NEW TRADE
COVERAGE TO BOOST EXPORTS AND TO HELP EASE ITALY'S USD 1.2
BILLION TRADE IMBALANCE WITH IRAN, AS WELL AS TO AVOID
DISRUPTION OF IRAN'S DEBT REPAYMENTS TO ITALY. IN ADDITION,
THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN TRADE HAD BEEN PREPARING TO LEAD AN
ITALIAN DELEGATION TO THE FIRST MEETING IN SEVEN YEARS OF THE
ITALIAN-IRANIAN MIXED ECONOMIC COMMISSION IN TEHRAN (REF D).
MFA "NEA" ECONOMIC DIRECTOR FRANCESCO TRUPIANO TOLD EMBOFFS IN
MID-MAY THAT BECAUSE OF MYKONOS, THE GOI WAS NOT/NOT
CONSIDERING NEW OFFICIAL CREDITS (INCLUDING ROLLING OVER
REPAYMENTS) AND THAT THE MIXED COMMISSION WAS INDEFINITELY
SUSPENDED. TRUPIANO CONFIRMED THIS WAS STILL THE CASE JUNE 5,
NOTING THAT HE DISAGREED WITH ITALIAN PRESS REPORTS THAT THE
RECENT IRANIAN ELECTION REPRESENTED A MAJOR POSITIVE CHANGE;
HE WILL WANT TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IRANIAN POLICIES ACTUALLY
CHANGE IN PRACTICE BEFORE MAKING SUCH A CONCLUSION. IF
POLITICAL CONDITIONS DO IN FACT IMPROVE, HE SAID, THE GOI WILL
RE-EXAMINE THE QUESTION OF EXPORT CREDITS.


5. (C) DESPITE THE MAY 19 SECOND RECALL OF AMBASSADOR ORTONA
FROM IRAN (REF E),ORTONA'S INITIAL QUICK RETURN TO IRAN AFTER
MYKONOS ILLUSTRATES GOI DESIRE TO RESUME BUSINESS AS USUAL
WITH TEHRAN. BEFORE ORTONA'S RETURN, MFA OFFICIAL TRUPIANO
TOLD EMBOFFS THAT HE PERSONALLY HOPED ORTONA WOULD REMAIN IN
TEHRAN -- IF ONLY FOR ECONOMIC REASONS. ANOTHER MFA POLITICAL
DIRECTORATE SOURCE TOLD US ITALY HOPED, BY KEEPING ORTONA IN
PLACE, EVEN TO PICK UP LUCRATIVE CONTRACTS GERMAN COMPANIES
MAY LOSE BECAUSE OF THE FREEZE IN GERMAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS.
TRUPIANO REITERATED FAMILIAR MFA THEMES THAT IRAN OWES 4.5
TRILLION LIRE (USD 3 BILLION) TO SACE, PLUS ANOTHER USD 1
BILLION TO ITALIAN FIRMS FROM THE SHAH PERIOD. FOR THE
MOMENT, IRAN IS MEETING ITS DEBT REPAYMENTS IN FULL --
INCLUDING PRINCIPAL -- BUT IF ITALY PULLS BACK FROM IRAN, IT
FEARS TEHRAN WILL CUT ITS REPAYMENTS. TRUPIANO COMMENTED THAT
IT WAS EASY FOR DENMARK AND SWEDEN TO CALL FOR TOUGH EU
MEASURES AGAINST TEHRAN BECAUSE THEY WOULD NOT HAVE TO PAY AN
ECONOMIC PRICE AS ITALY WOULD.


OPENLY SEEKING BUSINESS WITH IRAQ
--------------


6. (C) ITALY IS LOOKING TO POSITION ITSELF COMMERCIALLY IN
BAGHDAD -- THE MOMENT UN SANCTIONS ARE LIFTED. THE MFA LIKES
TO REMIND US THAT IRAQ WAS AN IMPORTANT TRADING PARTNER AND
ENERGY SOURCE FOR ITALY BEFORE THE GULF WAR. OVER THE LAST
MONTH, TWO HIGH-PROFILE IRAQI DELEGATIONS HAVE VISITED ROME,
OSTENSIBLY TO DISCUSS PERMITTED COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES UNDER
UNSCR 986 (REFS F-G). IRAQI OIL MINISTER AMIR RASHID WAS THE
MOST NOTABLE VISITOR. FM DINI AND INDUSTRY MINISTER BERSANI
MET RASHID AFTER "PRESSURE" FROM ITALIAN OIL INTERESTS AND
IRAQ, ACCORDING TO MFA ECONOMIC DG DI ROBERTO; RASHID ALSO
CALLED ON THE PRESIDENT OF PARASTATAL PETROLEUM PRODUCER AGIP.
DI ROBERTO AND INDUSTRY DG FOR BASIC ENERGY ETTORE ROSSONI
SAID RASHID'S DISCUSSIONS INCLUDED NOT ONLY UNSCR 986, BUT
POST-SANCTIONS OIL IMPORTS AND NEW OIL PRODUCTION FACILITIES
IN IRAQ.


7. (C) IRAQ'S DEPUTY OIL MINISTER -- SAMI SHARUF SHEBAB --
FOLLOWED UP RASHID'S VISIT WITH A SERIES OF MAY 14 MEETINGS
WITH ITALIAN BUSINESSMEN AND PARLIAMENTARIANS. U/S PATRICIA
TOIA SAW SHEBAB AT THE FOREIGN MINISTRY BUT, ACCORDING TO AN
MFA SOURCE, DECLINED TO ATTEND A LATER PRESS CONFERENCE WITH
SHEBAB AS SCHEDULED DUE TO HIS "ABRASIVENESS" DURING THE
MEETING. THIS SOURCE CALLED SHEBAB "AGGRESSIVE" IN HIS
INSISTENCE THAT ITALY DO AS MUCH AS FRANCE, CHINA AND RUSSIA
TO HAVE SANCTIONS LIFTED. NONETHELESS, TOIA REPORTEDLY TOLD
SHEBAB THAT SHE WELCOMED ADDITIONAL IRAQI DELEGATIONS.


8. (C) THE GOI WOULD PROBABLY NOT OBJECT IF AGIP SIGNED AN
EXPLORATION OR PRODUCTION CONTRACT WITH IRAQ WHILE UNSC
SANCTIONS ARE IN PLACE, MFA OFFICIAL TRUPIANO TOLD ECOUNS JUNE
5, AS LONG AS THE CONTRACT DID NOT BECOME EFFECTIVE UNTIL THE
SANCTIONS WERE LIFTED. TRUPIANO NOTED THAT FRENCH PRODUCER
TOTAL HAD RECENTLY MADE JUST SUCH A DEAL WITH BAGHDAD. (NOTE:
OFFICIALS FROM ENI, AGIP'S PARENT, TOLD ECOUNS JUNE 6 THEY
WERE NOT AWARE THAT TOTAL HAD ACTUALLY SIGNED A DEAL WITH
IRAQ.)


9. (C) THESE IRAQI VISITS FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE OPENING
OF AN ITALIAN INTERESTS SECTION IN BAGHDAD (REF H),AND THE
FEELING AMONG ITALIAN FIRMS THAT THEY HAVE BEEN MISSING OUT ON
FUTURE BUSINESS DEALS IN IRAQ UNDER UNSCR 986. ACCORDING TO
TRUPIANO, ITALY HAS RECEIVED ONLY FOUR CONTRACTS OUT OF 355
APPROVED BY THE UNITED NATIONS UNDER UNSCR 986 -- ALL OF WHICH
WENT TO A SINGLE PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY. TRUPIANO INDICATED
THAT THIS SENSE OF UNFAIRNESS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO EXISTING
"SANCTIONS FATIGUE" IN ITALY. THE GOI AND ITALIAN BUSINESS
SEE THE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE "GIANT" FRENCH INTEREST SECTION
IN BAGHDAD AND THE LARGE NUMBER OF 986 CONTRACTS WON BY FRENCH
FIRMS, TRUPIANO SAID; THE GOI ALSO CANNOT IGNORE THE REOPENING
OF THE SPANISH EMBASSY THERE.


10. (C) PARLIAMENT HAS ALSO PLAYED AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
SHAPING GOI POLICY TOWARD IRAQ. ON APRIL 15, THE SENATE
PASSED MOTIONS CALLING ON THE GOI TO UNDERTAKE INTERNATIONAL
AND BILATERAL INITIATIVES TO IMPROVE LIVING CONDITIONS THERE
(REF K). ON MAY 14, U/S TOIA MET WITH A GROUP OF SENATORS
FROM ACROSS POLITICAL LINES WHO WANTED TO KNOW WHAT THE GOI
WAS DOING IN RESPONSE TO THE MOTIONS. A GROUP OF SEVEN AN
PARLIAMENTARIANS VISITED IRAQ MAY 24 - 27, EVEN MEETING WITH
TARIQ AZIZ; LARGER PARLIAMENTARY AND BUSINESS DELEGATIONS ARE
SCHEDULED JUNE 22 -27, AND JULY 5 - 10 RESPECTIVELY. "NEA"
ECONOMIC DEPUTY DIRECTOR FEDERICO FAILLA SAID THERE WAS STRONG
SENTIMENT AMONG THE POLITICAL LEFT AND THE CATHOLIC CHURCH IN
FAVOR OF EASING IRAQI SUFFERING, ESPECIALLY AMONG CHILDREN.
HE COMMENTED THAT IT WOULD BE A "BIG" [DOMESTIC] POLITICAL
MISTAKE TO SHOW INSENSITIVITY TOWARD THIS SUFFERING. "NEA"
POLITICAL DEPUTY BRASIOLI AGREED, CALLING THE ITALIAN URGE TO
ASSIST THE IRAQI PEOPLE AS BOTH "CULTURAL AND PHILOSOPHICAL."
HE NOTED THE "HUNDREDS OF LETTERS" THE MFA RECEIVES EACH MONTH
URGING THE GOVERNMENT TO DO SOMETHING.


ITALY IS LIBYA'S "FIRST PARTNER ECONOMICALLY"
--------------


11. (C) ITALY CONSIDERS ITSELF LIBYA'S "FIRST PARTNER"
ECONOMICALLY AND IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST EXPORTER TO THE
COUNTRY, ACCOUNTING FOR 21 PERCENT (USD 1.2 BILLION) OF ITS
TOTAL 1995 IMPORTS. THE MFA'S TRUPIANO SAYS ITALY WANTS TO
NARROW ITS USD 3 BILLION ANNUAL TRADE DEFICIT WITH LIBYA. MFA
ECONOMIC DG DI ROBERTO AND "NEA" ECONOMIC DIRECTOR TRUPIANO
TRAVELLED TO TRIPOLI THE WEEK OF MAY 18-24. THE NUMBER ONE
AGENDA ITEM WAS LIBYAN REPAYMENT OF CIRCA USD 1 BILLION IN
OUTSTANDING DEBT. IN PREPARATION, ITALIAN AND LIBYAN
NEGOTIATORS MET MAY 15 TO DISCUSS THE QUESTION -- THE FIRST
TIME THE LIBYANS HAVE AGREED TO SUCH MEETINGS. TRUPIANO TOLD
ECOUNS JUNE 5 THAT HE WAS OPTIMISTIC THAT A TECHNICAL MEETING
THE WEEK OF JUNE 9 COULD MAKE PROGRESS THAT MIGHT ALLOW THE
REPAYMENT OF ABOUT HALF THE OUTSTANDING PRINCIPAL "SOON." DG
DI ROBERTO, HOWEVER, SAID HE WAS FAR LESS SANGUINE THAT ITALY
WOULD SEE REPAYMENTS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


12. (C) BEFORE LEAVING FOR TRIPOLI, TRUPIANO HAD TOLD EMBOFFS
THAT LIBYA CONTINUALLY ASKS ITALY TO EXPAND THE BILATERAL
COMMERCIAL RELATIONSHIP; ITALY REFUSES TO DO SO, HOWEVER,
UNTIL LIBYA MAKES GOOD ON ITS DEBT. STILL, ITALY IS ANXIOUS
FOR LIBYA TO RE-JOIN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY -- AND HAS
TOLD LIBYAN OFFICIALS THAT IT WILL HELP, IF LIBYA FIRST HELPS
ITSELF. THE MFA FEELS THAT QADDHAFI HAS INDEED "CHANGED" AND
USES AS EVIDENCE HIS ATTENDANCE AT THE JUNE 1996 ARAB SUMMIT
IN CAIRO, HIS MORE "HUMANITARIAN" ATTITUDE TOWARD THE
PALESTINIAN COMMUNITY IN LIBYA AND HIS "COOPERATION" WITH
RECENT EGYPTIAN INSPECTION TEAMS AT TARHUNAH. ITALIAN MFA
OFFICIALS CITE STEADY PRESSURE TO HELP GET THE SANCTIONS
LIFTED FROM MAGHREB STATES, ALL OF WHOM REPORTEDLY BELIEVE
QADDHAFI HAS TURNED A NEW LEAF.


13. (C) ITALY WILL NOT ALTER ITS DEPENDENCE ON LIBYAN OIL;
REPLACING IT WOULD BE COSTLY IN TERMS OF LOST INVESTMENTS,
HIGHER PETROLEUM PRICES, AND FUTURE TRADE TIES. IN FACT,
ITALIAN DEPENDENCE ON LIBYAN ENERGY COULD INCREASE BY EARLY
NEXT CENTURY, WHEN LIBYA COULD SUPPLY EIGHT PERCENT OF ITALY'S
NATURAL GAS. STATE-OWNED AGIP -- THE LARGEST FOREIGN OIL
COMPANY IN LIBYA -- IS POISED TO BUILD A GAS PIPELINE BETWEEN
LIBYA AND SICILY WHICH MAY GO INTO OPERATION IN THE YEAR 2000.
CONSTRUCTION HAS NOT YET STARTED DUE, WE BELIEVE, TO AGIP AND
GOI UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE APPLICABILITY OF THE IRAN-LIBYA
SANCTIONS ACT, BUT ARE NOT SANGUINE THAT THE PROJECT WILL BE
PUT OFF FOREVER.


14. (C) WITH LIBYA, AS WITH THE OTHER "ROGUES," WE CAN EXPECT
ITALY TO OBSERVE THE LETTER OF THE LAW WITH REGARD TO UNSC-
MANDATED SANCTIONS, BUT NOT GO AN INCH FURTHER. ITALY CAN BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTERPRET GRAY AREAS OF SANCTIONS
RESOLUTIONS IN LIBYA'S FAVOR, AS IT DID WITH REGARD TO THE
INVESTMENT OF LIBYAN OIL REVENUES IN UNBLOCKED ITALIAN
ACCOUNTS (REF L).

COMMENT: A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE ON ROGUES
--------------


15. (C) THE ITALIANS KNOW THAT WE ARE IRRITATED BY THEIR CLOSE
TIES WITH THE "ROGUES," AND POLITELY DISAGREE WITH MANY OF OUR
POLICY PROPOSALS. THE POWER OF THESE DISAGREEMENTS IS THAT
THEY ARISE FROM A DEEP BELIEF AND A PROFOUND NEED, ONE
PHILOSOPHICAL, THE OTHER COMMERCIAL.


16. (C) PHILOSOPHICALLY, THE ITALIANS, LIKE MANY OF THEIR
EUROPEAN COUNTERPARTS, BELIEVE THAT DIALOGUE, RATHER THAN
ISOLATION, IS THE KEY TO MODERATING THE BEHAVIOR OF PROBLEM
STATES. THE GOI DOES HAVE A "ROGUE STATES" POLICY, AN MFA
CONTACT TOLD POLOFF RECENTLY, AND DINI SPELLED IT OUT IN THE
"ENERGY" ARTICLE (PARA 4). COMMERCIALLY, ITALIANS HAVE REAL,
SUBSTANTIAL BUSINESS INTERESTS IN THESE COUNTRIES THAT WOULD
BE PUT AT RISK BY POLICIES MORE TO OUR LIKING. ADOPTING A US-
STYLE POLICY OF ISOLATION WOULD JEOPARDIZE THE REPAYMENT OF AT
LEAST USD 5 BILLION IN OUTSTANDING DEBTS FROM IRAN AND LIBYA,
AND REQUIRE THE COUNTRY TO FIND A NEW SOURCE FOR NEARLY HALF
ITS PETROLEUM IMPORTS (REF P). IN ADDITION, DESPITE A USD 60
BILLION WORLDWIDE TRADE SURPLUS IN 1996, THE GOI CLEARLY FEELS
DRIVEN TO BRING MORE BALANCE TO TRADE ACCOUNTS WITH OIL-
EXPORTING COUNTRIES WHERE IT SEES LARGE DEFICITS. IT THUS
WOULD NOT WANT TO TAKE ANY STEPS THAT MIGHT WORSEN THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INCREASING ITALIAN EXPORTS TO THESE STATES.


17. (C) THE ITALIANS INSIST THAT THEY ARE NOT "DOING
ANYTHING" TO VIOLATE COMMITMENTS MADE WITHIN INTERNATIONAL
CONTEXTS. HOWEVER, IN THE WAKE OF EU FURY OVER ILSA AND
HELMS-BURTON, THEY HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WILLING TO
CHARACTERIZE U.S. POLICIES OF ISOLATION AND IMPOSITION OF
SANCTIONS AS "IRRECONCILIABLE" AND MISGUIDED AND TO ARGUE
AGAINST SUCH WITHIN THE EU. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GOI'S
UNDISGUISED OPENNESS IN LOOKING FOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION TO
THE "PAN AM PROBLEM," AND TO PROMOTING ALTERNATIVES, AS IT DID
AT THE RECENT WORKING GROUP MEETING IN BRUSSELS MAY 24,
EXPLAIN QADDHAFI'S PERSISTENT USE OF ITALY AS LIBYA'S
INTERLOCUTOR WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. IRAN HAS NEVER
GONE OFF THE GOI'S RADAR, AND AS MFA OFFICIALS PUT IT "THE
GERMANS ARE JUST AS ANXIOUS TO GO BACK AS WE ARE!" THE JUNE 2
GENERAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL DECISION TO CONTINUE TO INDEFINITELY
POSTPONE THE RETURN OF EU AMBASSADORS WILL REQUIRE AL EU
PARTNERS TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE BRIGHTER RELATIONSHIP
THEY ENVISION WITH NEWLY ELECTED PRESIDENT KHATAMI.

BARTHOLOMEW