Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
97AMMAN5383
1997-06-05 13:40:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT: SOMETIMES A PLATFORM IS MORE

Tags:  KISL PGOV PINR PTER JO 
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P 051340Z JUN 97
FM AMEMBASSY AMMAN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2498
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 005383 

PARIS FOR LEAF
LONDON FOR TUELLER
SANAA FOR STANLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/05/02
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINR PTER JO
SUBJECT: THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT: SOMETIMES A PLATFORM IS MORE
TROUBLE THAN IT'S WORTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 005383

PARIS FOR LEAF
LONDON FOR TUELLER
SANAA FOR STANLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/05/02
TAGS: KISL PGOV PINR PTER JO
SUBJECT: THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT: SOMETIMES A PLATFORM IS MORE
TROUBLE THAN IT'S WORTH


1. CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERTA NEWELL FOR REASON
1.5 (D).


2. (U) SUMMARY: A COMMON REFRAIN AMONG OBSERVERS OF JORDAN'S
ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT (IAF) IS CONDEMNATION OF THE INFURIATINGLY
VAGUE NATURE OF THE PARTY'S POLITICAL PLATFORM. AN OPPONENT OF
THE PEACE PROCESS AND A VOCAL CRITIC OF MYRIAD GOJ INITIATIVES,
THE IAF OFFERS JORDAN'S VOTERS AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE USUAL PARADE
OF GOVERNMENT YES-MEN. THE PARTY'S VISION FOR JORDAN'S FUTURE AS
AN ISLAMIC STATE IS, HOWEVER, BLURRY AT BEST. THE IAF'S REFUSAL
TO DELINEATE ITS OSTENSIBLE RAISON D'ETRE BEYOND A HIGH-MINDED
CALL FOR "ISLAM" AS THE BASIS OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL
ORGANIZATION CAN BE SEEN AS PART OF A PRAGMATIC STRATEGY FOR
SELF-PRESERVATION. AS JORDAN'S ONLY "ISLAMIC" PARTY, THE IAF
STEERS A COURSE DESIGNED TO PLEASE ITS MEMBERSHIP, ITS POLITICAL
CONSTITUENCY, AND THE GOJ. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
WHAT DO THEY STAND FOR? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING (SAY IT AGAIN)
-------------- --------------


3. (C) THE GOJ, IN ITS MORE DEFENSIVE MOMENTS, HAS BEEN KNOWN
TO CHASTISE THE COUNTRY'S OPPOSITION, AND THE ISLAMIC ACTION
FRONT (IAF) IN PARTICULAR, FOR ITS ALMOST PURELY REACTIVE STANCE
ON POLICY ISSUES. SIMILAR GRUMBLINGS ABOUT THE IAF'S NOTORIOUSLY
DIAPHANOUS PLATFORM CAN BE HEARD AMONG THE GENERAL PUBLIC, WHO
WONDER, FOUR YEARS AFTER THE IAF'S OFFICIAL REGISTRATION, JUST
WHAT IT IS THE PARTY HOPES TO ACCOMPLISH. THE QUESTION HAS EVEN,
OF LATE, RESONATED WITHIN THE PARTY ITSELF, CULMINATING IN RUMORS
LAST JANUARY OF A SPLIT BETWEEN SO-CALLED "DOVES" AND "HAWKS"
OVER WHETHER THE PARTY SHOULD CONSIDER JOINING THE GOVERNMENT.
THE "DOVES," LED BY PARLIAMENTARY DEPUTIES ABDULLAH AKAILEH AND
BASSAM EMOUSH, ARGUED THAT IT WAS TIME FOR THE IAF TO REFOCUS ITS
ENERGIES ON ADDRESSING THE COUNTRY'S DOMESTIC ILLS. EVEN THOSE
SYMPATHETIC TO THE IAF'S STATED AIMS HAVE EXPRESSED FRUSTRATION
WITH ITS DITHERING. THEEB ABDULLAH, AN ISLAMIST MP WHO WAS A
MEMBER OF THE IAF'S PARLIAMENTARY BLOC BETWEEN 1994 AND 1996,
TRACED HIS SPLIT WITH THE PARTY TO THE IAF'S FAILURE TO GO BEYOND
THE SLOGAN "ISLAM IS THE SOLUTION" AND "ACTUALLY HELP PEOPLE."

THE TENDENCY ACROSS THE BOARD HAS BEEN TO TAKE THE IAF'S FAILURE
TO AGREE ON A DETAILED PLATFORM AS EVIDENCE OF ITS FUNDAMENTAL
WEAKNESS AS A POLITICAL PARTY. IN REALITY, THE PLATFORM'S VERY
VAGUENESS HAS BEEN PART OF A PRAGMATIC AND POLITICALLY SAVVY
DECISION BY THE IAF TO DEFER UNNECESSARY AND POTENTIALLY DIVISIVE
DEBATES TO THE DISTANT FUTURE.

--------------
THE PLATFORM (YES, THEY DO HAVE ONE)
--------------


4. (U) THE ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT'S PARTY PLATFORM WAS FORMULATED
IN 1993, WHEN THE PARTY WAS FIRST REGISTERED, AND HAS NOT BEEN
UPDATED SINCE. MORE AKIN TO A CHARTER, THE PLATFORM SETS OUT
BROAD GUIDELINES FOR THE PARTY'S ORIENTATION AND LEAVES THE
SPECIFICS TO SOME AS YET UNREACHED FUTURE DATE. THE MOST
IMPORTANT GOAL FOR THE IAF IS "THE RESUMPTION OF ISLAMIC LIFE AND
THE APPLICATION OF SHARIA LAW IN ALL FIELDS." SECOND IS
OPPOSITION TO THE PEACE PROCESS; A KEY OBJECTIVE FOR THE PARTY IS
"THE PREPARATION OF THE NATION FOR ARMED CONFLICT AGAINST THE
ZIONIST AND IMPERIALIST ENEMIES," AND "NON-RECOGNITION OF THE
USURPER JEWISH ENTITY." THE PLATFORM CALLS FOR THE ACHIEVEMENT
OF LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY THROUGH SHURA (CONSULTATION) AND THE
PROTECTION OF FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION. IT ADVOCATES ESTABLISHING
AN ECONOMY BASED ON ISLAMIC PRINCIPLES, "WHICH ENSURES SOCIAL
EQUALITY, PROTECTING INDIVIDUAL PROPERTY, PROVIDING EQUAL
OPPORTUNITIES, AND COMBATTING CORRUPTION AND UNEMPLOYMENT." THE
PLATFORM ALSO SETS OUT "MEANS AND METHODS" FOR ACHIEVING THESE
OBJECTIVES. THESE ARE PRIMARILY THROUGH THE DISSEMINATION OF
INFORMATION, STUDIES, AND PARTICIPATION IN PARLIAMENT.


5. (U) IN THE FOUR YEARS SINCE THE PLATFORM'S PROMULGATION THE
PARTY HAS, TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, REFINED ITS POSITIONS ON A NUMBER
OF ISSUES, PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF COMMUNIQUES TO THE GENERAL
PUBLIC. IN THESE STATEMENTS THE IAF HAS BEEN ALMOST ENTIRELY
REACTIVE, RESPONDING TO GOJ DECISIONS OR WORLD EVENTS AS THEY
ARISE, WITHIN AN ANTI-ISRAELI, ANTI-WESTERN AND ANTI-GOJ
FRAMEWORK. IN THE PAST YEAR ALONE THE IAF HAS ISSUED STATEMENTS
OPPOSING THE RULE OF THE TALEBAN REGIME IN AFGHANISTAN FOR ITS
"UNISLAMIC" CHARACTER, EXPRESSING SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT IN
SUDAN, CONDEMNING U.S. TREATMENT OF MUSA ABU MARZOUK, OPPOSING
GOJ POLICY ON PUBLIC FREEDOMS, AND CALLING FOR THE ABROGATION OF
THE JORDAN-ISRAEL PEACE TREATY. NOTABLY, THERE HAVE BEEN
REMARKABLY FEW COMMUNIQUES DETAILING THE IAF'S VISION OF AN
"ISLAMIC" JORDAN, ITS OSTENSIBLE RAISON D'ETRE.


6. (C) IN A MAY 15 MEETING WITH POLOFF, THE ISLAMIC ACTION
FRONT'S MODERATE SECRETARY GENERAL, ISHAQ FARHAN (PROTECT),
ELABORATED (SEEMINGLY RELUCTANTLY) ON THE ISLAMIST MOVEMENT'S
PLANS FOR AN ISLAMIST-GOVERNED JORDAN. FARHAN SPOKE IN VAGUE
TERMS ABOUT ISLAM SETTING "GUIDELINES" FOR APPROPRIATE BEHAVIOR,
UNTIL PRESSED WITH SPECIFIC QUESTIONS. POLOFF ASKED ABOUT THE
IAF'S INTERPRETATION OF CERTAIN ASPECTS OF ISLAMIC LAW. WOULD
HANDS BE CUT OFF IN CASES OF THEFT? FARHAN WOULD NOT RULE IT OUT
ENTIRELY, COMPARING IT TO THE DEATH PENALTY AS APPROPRIATE FOR
REPEAT OFFENDERS GUILTY OF "TERRIBLE CRIMES." HE DISMISSED
EXECUTION AS A PUNISHMENT FOR APOSTASY, SAYING THAT INDIVIDUALS
ARE FREE TO CHANGE THEIR RELIGION. THE DEATH PENALTY IS ONLY
JUSTIFIED, HE SAID, IN CASES WHERE CONVERTS "ATTACK ISLAM" AND
TRY TO WOO MUSLIMS AWAY FROM THE FAITH. FARHAN CONCEDED THAT
JORDAN IS "FAIRLY ISLAMIC," AND THAT THE IAF AGREES FOR THE MOST
PART WITH POLICIES AS THEY ARE TODAY. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ARE
ALCOHOL AND MONETARY INTEREST. THE IAF HAS REPEATEDLY PROPOSED
BANNING ALCOHOL. MUSLIMS, SAID FARHAN, SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
BUY, SELL, OR PRODUCE ALCOHOL. CHRISTIANS WOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
BUY AND CONSUME ALCOHOL. BANKS, HE WENT ON, SHOULD NOT BE
ALLOWED TO CHARGE INTEREST ON LOANS. FARHAN ALSO EXPRESSED THE
HOPE THAT AT SOME TIME IN THE DISTANT FUTURE THERE WOULD EXIST A
"UNITED STATES OF ARABIA." THE MUSING TONE OF FARHAN'S RESPONSES
DURING THE MEETING LEFT POLOFF WITH THE IMPRESSION THAT THE
SECRETARY GENERAL WAS NOT SPEAKING FOR HIS PARTY AS A WHOLE, BUT
WAS IN FACT EXTRAPOLATING FROM HIS OWN BELIEFS AND VIEWPOINTS (IN
SOME CASES APPARENTLY FOR THE FIRST TIME) AS TO THE APPROPRIATE
INTERPRETATION OF ISLAMIC LAW FOR JORDAN.

--------------
LACK OF SPECIFICITY IS THE KEY TO UNITY
--------------


7. (C) THE IAF'S FAILURE TO COME TO GRIPS WITH THE OVERRIDING
ISSUE OF HOW TO INTERPRET ISLAMIC LAW STEMS IN LARGE PART FROM
THE SURPRISINGLY WIDE VARIETY OF BELIEF AND PRACTICE AMONG ITS
MEMBERS. (PARTY OFFICIALS NUMBER IAF MEMBERSHIP IN THE
"THOUSANDS.") MEMBERS TAKE ALL SHAPES: IBRAHIM GHARAIBEH, A
THIRTY-SOMETHING MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD MEMBER, IS CLEAN-SHAVEN AND
SHAKES HANDS WITH WOMEN. NAWAL FAOURI, A MEMBER OF THE IAF'S
SHURA COUNCIL, IS THE HEADMISTRESS OF THREE SCHOOLS, AND
CONSIDERS POLITICAL ACTIVISM A "RESPONSIBILITY" FOR WOMEN. ABDUL
MUNEM ABU ZANT, A PARLIAMENTARIAN KNOWN FOR HIS FIERY RHETORIC,
ADVOCATES THE WEARING OF HEADSCARVES BY GIRLS AS YOUNG AS EIGHT
YEARS OLD AND, ACCORDING TO A CANADIAN EMBASSY SECURITY SOURCE
(PROTECT),HAS BEEN REFUSED ENTRY TO CANADA FOR HIS HAMAS
FUNDRAISING ACTIVITIES THERE. EACH OF THESE INDIVIDUALS BELIEVES
THAT FOR JORDAN, "ISLAM IS THE SOLUTION." HOWEVER, EACH ONE ALSO
HAS A UNIQUE CONCEPTION OF WHAT ISLAM REQUIRES OF ITS BELIEVERS
AND OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE WAY FOR ISLAM TO BE IMPLEMENTED.
GHARAIBEH, ECHOING THE PARTY LINE, HAS CALLED THIS DIVERGENCE IN
OPINION "A SOURCE OF STRENGTH" FOR THE PARTY, BECAUSE IT ALLOWS
FOR OPEN DEBATE AND DISCUSSION OF ISSUES. THE IAF LEADERSHIP
APPARENTLY ALSO VIEWS IT AS A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF WEAKNESS, AS
FINAL DECISIONS, OR EVEN DISCUSSION, ON DIVISIVE ISSUES SUCH AS
THE APPROPRIATE ROLE FOR WOMEN COULD CONCEIVABLY UNRAVEL THE
PARTY'S DELICATE WEB OF LINKS AMONG ISLAMISTS OF ALL STRIPES. TO
AVOID SUCH AN EVENTUALITY THE PARTY HAS STUCK ASSIDUOUSLY TO
GENERAL TOPICS: OPPOSITION TO PEACE WITH ISRAEL, PAN-ARAB UNITY,
AND PROMOTION OF PUBLIC FREEDOMS.

--------------
THE VOTERS: A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
--------------


8. (U) THE PARTY HAS ALSO CLEARLY COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT
IN ATTRACTING SUPPORT (AND VOTES) AMONG THE POPULACE, SPECIFICS
ARE MORE OF A LIABILITY THAN AN ADVANTAGE. THE COUNTRY'S
ISLAMISTS CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECTED TO PUBLIC RIDICULE FOR THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD'S HANDLING OF THE EDUCATION, SOCIAL
DEVELOPMENT AND AWQAF PORTFOLIOS IN THE GOVERNMENT OF PRIME
MINISTER MUDAR BADRAN IN 1990. PUBLIC OPPOSITION TO MINISTER OF
EDUCATION ABDULLAH AKAILEH'S PROPOSAL TO BAN FATHERS FROM THE
BASKETBALL GAMES OF THEIR SCHOOLGIRL DAUGHTERS IN ORDER TO
PROTECT THE MODESTY OF THE OTHER PLAYERS HAS TAUGHT THE IAF THAT
WHILE JORDANIANS ARE BY AND LARGE SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE, THEIR
BRAND OF RELIGIOUS OBSERVANCE IS TEMPERED WITH A HEALTHY DOSE OF
COMMON SENSE. INSTEAD, THE PARTY PREFERS TO TRADE ON ITS
STRENGTH AS JORDAN'S ONLY PARTY PURPORTING TO REPRESENT ISLAM.
FOR NOW THE IAF CONTINUES TO GARNER SUPPORT FROM THE MANY
JORDANIANS WHO BELIEVE THAT AN "ISLAMIC" PARTY MUST NECESSARILY
BE BETTER (MORE HONEST, MORE MORAL, MORE IN LINE WITH GOD'S WILL)
THAN NON-ISLAMIC PARTIES, AND GIVE LITTLE THOUGHT TO THE DETAILS.
THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE, HOWEVER, THAT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THIS
STRATEGY IS BEGINNING TO WANE. FOUR YEARS AFTER THE PARTY'S
FOUNDING, MANY SUCH SUPPORTERS ARE BEGINNING TO QUESTION WHETHER
THE IAF IS, IN FACT, DIFFERENT FROM THE REST AND WILL EVER BE
EFFECTIVE IN BRINGING ABOUT SOCIAL CHANGE. THESE GRUMBLINGS HAVE
LED SOME OBSERVERS TO BELIEVE THAT POPULAR SUPPORT FOR THE IAF IS
ACTUALLY DIMINISHING. FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE, HOWEVER, THE IAF
SEEMS TO HAVE DETERMINED THAT ITS COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN POLICY
TERMS LIES WITH INACTION. THE PARTY MAY HAVE TO RETHINK ITS
STRATEGY IF, AS IS POSSIBLE, THE IAF SEES A REDUCTION IN ITS
PARLIAMENTARY REPRESENTATION AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.

-------------- --------------
JORDAN'S NASCENT DEMOCRACY: NOT READY FOR THE DETAILS
-------------- --------------


9. (C) THE LIMITED NATURE OF JORDAN'S DEMOCRATIC EXPERIMENT
ALSO PUTS A CONSIDERABLE DAMPER ON ANY ATTEMPTS BY IAF MEMBERS TO
BRING THEIR PARTY'S AIMS MORE CLEARLY INTO FOCUS. THE VAGARIES
OF THE CURRENT ELECTORAL LAW, WHICH IS WEIGHTED IN FAVOR OF PRO-
GOVERNMENT, TRIBAL CANDIDATES, AND THE CONCENTRATION OF POWER IN
THE EXECUTIVE GIVE THE IAF LITTLE INCENTIVE TO GO OUT ON A LIMB
IN ITS POLICY PRONOUNCEMENTS. WITH NO CHANCE OF GAINING POWER,
THERE IS SIMPLY NO NEED. MOREOVER, BY AGREEING TO ACT AS A PART
OF THE COUNTRY'S "LOYAL OPPOSITION" AND OPERATE WITHIN THE
GUIDELINES OF THE POLITICAL PARTIES LAW, THE IAF HAS LIMITED
LATITUDE TO ADVOCATE TRULY SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL CHANGE. THE
1992 PARTIES LAW REQUIRES THAT ALL PARTIES ABIDE BY THE
PROVISIONS OF THE CONSTITUTION (WHICH RESERVES VIRTUALLY ALL
POWERS FOR THE KING) AND WORK TO PRESERE JORDAN'S INDEPENDENCE.
THE LAW RULES OUT ANY ACKNOWLEDGMENT ON THE PART OF THE IAF THAT
IT MIGHT SOMEDAY SEEK TO FUNDAMENTALLY REORGANIZE THE COUNTRY'S
POLITICAL APPARATUS. FARHAN'S UTOPIAN DREAM OF A "UNITED STATES
OF ARABIA," NO MATTER HOW IT MIGHT RESONATE AMONG ISLAMISTS (AND
THAT IS DEBATABLE),WILL NEVER FIND ITS WAY ONTO THE IAF'S
PLATFORM. THE PARTY MAY EVEN BE UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE GOJ TO
AVOID STEPS, SUCH AS ARTICULATING A DETAILED PLATFORM, WHICH
COULD CAUSE A RUPTURE IN PARTY UNITY. A PARLIAMENTARY
CONTACT TOLD POLOFF IN JANUARY OF HIS BELIEF THAT THE GOJ, AND
SPECIFICALLY THE GENERAL INTELLIGENCE DIRECTORATE, PREFERS TO
KEEP THE IAF WHOLE IN ORDER TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MORE RADICAL
ELEMENTS OF THE PARTY'S MEMBERSHIP.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------

10. (U) THE IAF'S PRAGMATIC STREAK HAS WIDENED MARKEDLY DURING
ITS FOUR YEARS OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, AND ITS PLATFORM (OR
LACK THEREOF) IS JUST ONE EXAMPLE OF HOW THE PARTY HAS LEARNED TO
"WORK THE SYSTEM" TO ITS ADVANTAGE. AS LONG AS THE STATUS QUO IN
TERMS OF DEMOCRATIC PROGRESS REMAINS IN PLACE, THE IAF WILL
CONTINUE TO AVOID SAPPING ITS STRENGTH THROUGH A COSTLY INTERNAL
DEBATE ON INTERPRETATION OF SHARIA LAW OR THE MECHANICS OF
"ISLAMIC ECONOMICS." SHOULD JORDAN CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ALONG
THE PATH TO DEMOCRACY, HOWEVER, THE PARTY WILL BE FORCED TO COME
TO TERMS WITH THE WIDE IDEOLOGICAL SPECTRUM CURRENTLY REPRESENTED
WITHIN IT. IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO FOR THE PARTY, THE MOVEMENT
WOULD BREAK UP INTO A NUMBER OF SMALLER PARTIES WITH OVERLAPPING
BUT COMPETING VISIONS FOR AN ISLAMIC GOVERNMENT FOR JORDAN. THIS
IS CURRENTLY THE SITUATION FOR JORDAN'S LEFTIST PARTIES, WHICH
ARE DISPROPORTIONATELY WEAK DUE TO THEIR INABILITY TO OVERCOME
INTERNECINE SQUABBLES. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY, GIVEN THE PARTY'S
INCREASINGLY PRAGMATIC MODUS OPERANDI, IS THAT MEMBERS ON BOTH
EDGES MAY DRIFT OFF, BUT THE CENTER WILL HOLD AS THE IAF ADOPTS A
PLATFORM DESIGNED TO APPEAL TO JORDAN'S CONSERVATIVE, BUT
SENSIBLE, MAJORITY.


EGAN