HAMAS BIDING ITS TIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 003094


NEA FOR VERSTANDIG; SMEC FOR ROSS; INR FOR ENSLEY

E.O. 12958: DNG: 11/08/06
TAGS: KPAL KWBG KISL PTER
SUBJECT: HAMAS BIDING ITS TIME


1. CLASSIFIED BY CONSUL GENERAL EDWARD G. ABINGTON, JR. REASON
1.5 (B) AND (D).


2. (C) BIR ZEIT UNIVERSITY POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR HISHAM
AHMAD TOLD POLOFF THAT HAMAS IS LAYING LOW FOLLOWING CRACKDOWNS BY
THE PA AND ISRAELI SECURITY AFTER TERRORIST ATTACKS EARLIER THIS
YEAR. IN HIS VIEW, HAMAS IS CURRENTLY BIDING ITS TIME AND WAITING
FOR THE STREET TO BECOME FRUSTATED ENOUGH WITH THE CLOSURE AND LACK
OF PROGRESS IN THE PEACE PROCESS TO, IF NOT WELCOME A RESUMPTION OF
TERRORIST ATTACKS, AT LEAST "SYMPATHIZE" WITH THEM. AHMAD BELIEVES
A "HARDCORE" OF HAMAS OPERATIVES AND PLANNERS REMAIN TO GUIDE
TERRORIST ATTACKS. THE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO RECRUIT MEMBERS,
DESPITE DAMAGE DONE TO ITS INFRASTRUCTURE DURING EARLIER
CRACKDOWNS. END SUMMARY.

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HAMAS LAYING LOW FOR NOW....
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3. (C) POLOFF MET WITH DR. HISHAM AHMAD, AN AMCIT BIR ZEIT
POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, TO DISCUSS WEST BANK POLITICAL
OPPOSITION GROUPS. (NOTE: AHMAD IS THE AUTHOR OF THE 1994 PASSIA
STUDY ON HAMAS ENTITLED "HAMAS: FROM RELIGIOUS SALVATION TO
POLITICAL TRANSFORMATION: THE RISE OF HAMAS IN PALESTINIAN
SOCIETY"). AHMAD TOLD POLOFF THAT HAMAS' LACK OF ACTIVISM DURING
THE LATE SEPTEMBER ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CLASHES INDICATED ITS
CURRENT STRATEGY OF LAYING LOW AND WAITING FOR POPULAR FRUSTRATION
TO BUILD AS A NATURAL OUTGROWTH OF EVENTS ON THE GROUND. HE SAID
THAT HAMAS IS CONDUCTING ITS ACTIVITIES, SUCH AS RECRUITING AND
MOBILIZING MEMBERS AND RUNNING ITS SOCIAL-WELFARE ORGANIZATIONS IN
THE WEST BANK, IN A MORE LOW-KEY FASHION. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE
PA AND ISRAELI CRACKDOWNS ON ITS ORGANIZATION FOLLOWING SUICIDE
BOMB ATTACKS EARLIER THIS YEAR AS WELL AS TO AVOID HARASSMENT FROM
THE PA. AHMAD OPINED THAT HAMAS CURRENTLY SEES NO NEED TO WHIP UP
THE STREET BECAUSE IT IS ALREADY FRUSTRATED AND ON EDGE. (COMMENT:
THIS IS A TIME-HONORED TACTIC THAT HAMAS USES - TO LET THE PLO OR
ISRAEL MAKE MISSTEPS OR CREATE CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND THAT
FACILITATE HAMAS'S GOAL OF DISCREDITING THE PA AND THE PEACE
PROCESS. END COMMENT).

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...BUT STILL A LURKING THREAT OF TERRORISM
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4. (C) AHMAD SAID THAT HE IS CONCERNED THAT HAMAS'S RELATIVE QUIET
IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THAT IT WILL RESUME ATTACKS AS POPULAR
FRUSTRATION OVER LACK OF MOVEMENT IN THE PEACE PROCESS AND THE
NETANYAHU GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES CONTINUE TO BUILD. HE SAID THAT
HAMAS TERRORIST OPERATIVES LEARNED THEIR LESSON FROM THE
PALESTINIAN PUBLIC'S CONDEMNATION OF ITS TERRORIST ATTACKS IN 1995
AND EARLY 1996 AND THE RESULTING HARDSHIP VISITED UPON THE
PALESTINIANS THROUGH TIGHTENED ECONOMIC CLOSURES; THEIR OBJECTIVE
NOW IS TO RESUME TERRORIST ATTACKS WHEN POPULAR FRUSTRATION BECOMES
GREAT ENOUGH SO THAT THE PUBLIC WILL NOT CONDEMN SUCH A RESUMPTION.
HE SAID THERE IS A "HARDCORE" OF HAMAS TERRORIST PLANNERS AND
OPERATIVES IN PLACE. (NOTE: LIKE OTHER CONGEN CONTACTS, AHMAD
COULD NOT QUANTIFY OR SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFY THIS "CRITICAL MASS" OF
PUBLIC DISCONTENT).

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EFFECTS OF CLOSURE AND CRACKDOWNS ON HAMAS
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5. (C) IN RESPONSE TO POLOFF'S QUESTIONS, AHMAD SAID THAT HAMAS IS
CONTINUING TO RECRUIT MEMBERS, ALTHOUGH THE CRACKDOWNS IN MARCH
WEAKENED ITS INFRASTRUCTURE AND SOME HAMAS MEMBERS CRITICIZED THE
ORGANIZATION'S RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER PERFORMANCE DURING THE
SEPTEMBER CLASHES. IN RESPONSE TO POLOFF'S QUESTION, AHMAD SAID
THAT THE CLOSURE IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD FOR HAMAS: IT MAKES IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR HAMAS OPERATIVES TO PLAN AND EXECUTE TERRORIST
ATTACKS, BUT THE CLOSURE AND ATTENDANT ECONOMIC HARDSHIP ARE
DECREASING PATIENCE ON THE STREET AND INCREASING FRUSTRATION.


6. (C) AHMAD PREDICTED THAT ALLEVIATING THE SOURCES OF PALESTINIAN
FRUSTRATION WOULD "PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER HAMAS". IF HAMAS
WERE TO STAGE TERRORIST ATTACKS IN AN IMPROVED ECONOMIC AND
POLITICAL CLIMATE, AHMAD PREDICTED THAT PUBLIC OPINION WOULD NOT
SUPPORT HAMAS-INSPIRED VIOLENCE.


7. (C) COMMENT: WHILE IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DISCERN WHAT
HAMAS'S SHADOWEY OPERATIONAL ELEMENTS ARE UP TO AND TO PREDICT
THEIR FUTURE PLANS, AHMAD'S ANALYSIS SEEMS REASONABLE FROM OUR
POINT OF VIEW. A PRODUCT OF THE POLITICALLY ACTIVE DHEISHEH
REFUGEE CAMP NEAR BETHLEHEM, AHMAD IS A CREDIBLE COMMENTATOR ON
HAMAS THROUGH HIS ACADEMIC BACKGROUND AND HIS CONTACTS IN THE LOCAL
COMMUNITY. AS FRUSTRATED AS THE PALESTINIAN STREET IS, IT IS
INTERESTING THAT AHMAD DID NOT FORESEE THAT HAMAS WOULD ENJOY A
LARGE BOOST IN POPULARITY IF IT WERE TO RESUME TERRORIST ATTACKS.


ABINGTON