GAMBIAN ELECTION WRAP UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANJUL 002394


DEPT FOR AF/W
ALSO FOR AID
DAKAR PASS TO PRAIA
DAKAR FOR RSO, POLOFF
LONDON FOR YOUNG
PARIS FOR MORAN
USEU FOR NAHAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/30/01
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM GA
SUBJECT: GAMBIAN ELECTION WRAP UP

REFS: A) BANJUL 2383; B) BANJUL 2377; C) BANJUL 2373;
D) BANJUL 2362; E) BANJUL 2277


1. CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE DOUGLAS ROHN FOR REASONS
1.5B&D.


2. (C) SUMMARY: CHAIRMAN YAHYA JAMMEH WON THE 26
SEPTEMBER GAMBIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH A 56
PERCENT MAJORITY. PRIMARY CHALLENGER OUSAINOU DARBOE
RECEIVED 36 PERCENT, AND TWO MINOR CANDIDATES SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE. THE ELECTION PROCESS AS PLANNED AND
MANAGED BY THE PIEC WAS PEACEFUL, CALM, AND
EFFICIENT, A FACT WHICH PLEASES MANY GAMBIANS. THE
PRE-ELECTION PERIOD WAS MARKED BY A POLICY OF
INTIMIDATION AND HARASSMENT BY GOTG SECURITY FORCES
THAT PROBABLY INFLUENCED THE VOTE. THE GOTG BELIEVES
THAT IT HAS MET THE WEST'S REQUIREMENT FOR AN
ELECTION, AND WILL TAKE A VERY SOUR VIEW OF ANY
CRITICISM OF THE JUST CONCLUDED ELECTORAL PROCESS.
END SUMMARY.


3. (C) THE ELECTORAL PROCESS: AS DESCRIBED IN REF
B, ELECTION DAY IN THE GAMBIA WAS QUIET, CALM, AND
PEACEFUL. ACCORDING TO ANDREW LADLEY, A NEW ZEALAND
LAW PROFESSOR WORKING WITH THE PROVISIONAL
INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION (PIEC),ASIDE FROM A
FEW INCIDENTS, THE MOST SERIOUS OF WHICH WAS THE
MOSQUE AFFAIR NOTED IN REF B, THE ELECTION WAS A
MODEL OF EFFICIENCY AND TRANSPARENCY. IN HIS VIEW,
THAT FACT ALONE HAS ADVANCED THE CAUSE OF DEMOCRACY
HERE. HE WAS PARTICULARLY PLEASED WITH THE SUCCESS OF
THE ONE-DAY PRE-ELECTION COOLING OFF PERIOD.


4. (C) VOTING PATTERNS: THE CHAIRMAN WON WITH A 56
PERCENT MAJORITY. HE DID WELL IN MOST PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY. JAMMEH PAINTED DARBOE AS THE MANDINKA
CANDIDATE (DARBOE AND FORMER PRESIDENT JAWARA ARE
MANDINKA, AS ARE ABOUT 45 PERCENT OF GAMBIANS).
JAMMEH, WHO HAD BASED MUCH OF HIS CAMPAIGN STRATEGY
ON CONDEMNING AND OVERCOMING MANDINKA TRIBALISM AND,
INDEED, TRIBALISM IN GENERAL, DID WELL AMONGST THE
MANDINKA, WINNING UP TO 30 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN
HEAVILY MANDINKA AREAS. HE CAPTURED MORE THAN 75
PERCENT IN AREAS DOMINATED BY HIS NATIVE JOLA TRIBE.


5. (C) THE PIEC: THE COMMISSION ADMINISTERED THE
ELECTION WELL. EFFECTIVE SAFEGUARDS WERE IN PLACE TO
ENSURE THE FAIRNESS OF THE VOTE AND THE COUNT. ON
THE TECHNICAL SIDE, THE PIEC DESERVES KUDOS. WHEN
CALLED UPON TO CONTROL VARIOUS GOTG ABUSES, HOWEVER,
THEIR PERFORMANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER. THEY DID
PROTEST THE GOVERNMENT MEDIA'S OBVIOUS SUPPORT FOR
JAMMEH (REF E),AND THEY TALKED TO THE ARMY, POLICE,
AND NIA ABOUT DEMONSTRATIONS OF SUPPORT FOR JAMMEH.
WHEN THE OPPOSITION CONTINUED TO BE BANNED FROM THE
MEDIA AND AS THE SECURITY FORCES CONTINUED TO SHOW
OBVIOUS SUPPORT FOR JAMMEH, NO FURTHER ACTION WAS
TAKEN. AS VICE-CHAIRMAN BISHOP JOHNSON SAID AT THE
21 SEPTEMBER, PRESS CONFERENCE, "WE SHOWED THE YELLOW
CARD, BUT NOT THE RED." HE EXPRESSED HIS FEAR THAT
TOO MUCH PRESSURE ON THE GOTG, "WOULD RESULT IN
CHAOS."


6. (C) INTIMIDATION AS A POLICY - WE HAVE SPOKEN TO
NUMEROUS GAMBIAN CONTACTS AND WITH ZOE TEMBO, THE
ZAMBIAN DIRECTOR OF THE AFRICAN CENTRE FOR DEMOCRACY
AND HUMAN RIGHTS STUDIES, WHO COORDINATED THE
INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER EFFORT. BASED ON WHAT THEY
HAVE TOLD US, AND ON WHAT WE SAW IN THE BANJUL AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN, THE GOTG WORKED AT
INTIMIDATING VOTERS. ACCORDING TO TEMBO, FOR
EXAMPLE, SOLDIERS IN JAMMEH'S ENTOURAGE TOLD VOTERS
IN MANY PLACES THAT, "THERE IS A WAR COMING IF YOU DO
NOT VOTE FOR JAMMEH." SHE SAID THAT THE MILITARY
ESCORT, WHICH WAS LARGE AND ARMED WITH HEAVY WEAPONS,
TOLD VOTERS THAT, "WE HAVE ONE BULLET FOR EVERY VOTE
FOR DARBOE." ON THE LAST DAY OF CAMPAIGNING THE ARMY
SHOWED UP WITH AN ARMORED VEHICLE AND TWO TWIN FORTY
MILLIMETER ANTI-AIRCRAFT CANNONS AT JAMMEH RALLIES IN
THE BANJUL/KOMBOS AREA. TEMBO ALSO CLAIMS THAT THERE
WAS AN NIA PLAIN CLOTHES AGENT AT EVERY POLLING
PLACE, AND THAT THE VOTERS KNEW WHO THEY WERE AND WHY
THEY WERE THERE.


7. (C) TEMBO, A VETERAN OF MANY AFRICAN ELECTIONS
COMMENTED THAT THE VOTING WENT TOO PEACEFULLY. SHE
SAID THAT, "THE PEOPLE ACTED LIKE ROBOTS." SHE ALSO
NOTED THE LACK OF REAL JOY AT JAMMEH'S ELECTION AMONG
NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT SOLDIERS AND SOME YOUNG
PEOPLE. A PHENOMENON SHE SAID THAT SHE HAD NEVER
EXPERIENCED IN THE AFTERMATH OF AN AFRICAN ELECTION.


8. (C) JAMMEH'S CAMPAIGN STRATEGY WORKED. HE HAD
SPENT TWO YEARS TALKING ABOUT THE CORRUPTION OF THE
PRECEDING THIRTY. LAWYER DARBOE HAD DEFENDED SOME OF
THE MINISTERS TRIED BY THE GOTG FOR CORRUPTION. THE
APRC TRIED TO TAR HIM WITH THE BRUSH OF GUILT BY
ASSOCIATION. THE PEOPLE DID NOT WANT TO GO BACK TO
THE JAWARA YEARS. JAMMEH HAS DONE A LOT IN
COMPARISON WITH THE JAWARA GOVERNMENT. HE HAS BUILT
16 SCHOOLS, IS BUILDING A HOSPITAL AND A NEW AIRPORT
TERMINAL, AS WELL AS A TRIUMPHAL ARCH. HE HAS A
STRONG BASE OF LEGITIMATE SUPPORT.


9. (C) ON THE OTHER HAND, THE OPPOSITION, IN A VERY
SHORT TIME FRAME, WITH ALMOST NO TV OR RADIO TIME,
AND WITHOUT ACCESS TO THE GOVERNMENT RESOURCES THAT
JAMMEH SO FREELY USED, RECEIVED FORTY-FOUR PERCENT OF
THE VOTE.


10. (C) COMMENT: THE APRC WAS NOT GOING TO LOSE.
THEY DREW ON EVERY RESOURCE AVAILABLE TO THEM. THE
INTIMIDATION AS WELL AS THE VIOLENCE (REF A) AT THE
END OF THE CAMPAIGN SHOWED THAT THEY WOULD DO
WHATEVER THEY THOUGHT THEY HAD TO TO WIN. NOW THEY
BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE SATISFIED WHAT THEY SEE AS A
WESTERN IMPOSED REQUIREMENT TO HAVE AN ELECTION. THE
PIEC, INVOKING THE SPECTER OF RWANDA AND OTHER FAILED
STATES, AVOIDED FORCING THE GOVERNMENT TO EITHER PLAY
FAIR OR CALL OFF THE ELECTION. THE GOTG WOULD HAVE
IGNORED THEM ANYWAY. GAMBIANS ARE GENERALLY
SATISFIED THAT THEY HAD A PEACEFUL ELECTION. THE
WERE AFRAID, THE GOTG PLAYED UPON THAT FEAR, ANDIT
WORKED.


11. (C) THE GOTG WILL SEE ANY FUTHER COMMENTS FROM
THE WEST ABOUT AN UNLEVEL PLAING FIELD AND A POLICY
F INTIMIDATION AS SOUR GRAPES. NO MATTER OUR
PROTESTATIONS THAT OUR ONLY GOAL WAS A FREE AND FAIR
ELECTION, THEY HAVE ALWAYS PERCEIVED US AS SUPPORTING
DARBOE (REF D). END COMMENT.


ROHN