RECENT TERRORIST ATTACKS: BLOODIER, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 003262


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2006
TAGS: PTER PINS KISL AG
SUBJECT: RECENT TERRORIST ATTACKS: BLOODIER, BUT
NOT INDICATIVE OF NEW TERRORIST STRENGTH

REF: ALGIERS 2884


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES JOSEPH
STAFFORD, AMEMBASSY ALGIERS, REASON 1.5 (D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF NEARLY
FIVE YEARS OF SUSTAINED VIOLENCE HERE, NOVEMBER 1996
HAS WITNESSED SOME PARTICULRLY GRUESOME TERRORIST
ATROCITIES, ESPECIALLY INCENTRAL ALGERIA. RATHER
THAN TRYING TO PREVENT EWSPAPERS FROM PUBLISHING
STORIES ABOUT THE ATROITIES, THE GOVERNMENT APPEARS
TO BE ENCOURAGING HEM TO DO SO. THESE LATEST
ATTACKS HAVE AGGRAVATD PUBLIC WORRIES ABOUT THE
SECURITY SITUATION, EPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS OUTSIDE ALGIRS. WE SENSE, HOWEVER, LITTLE
CHANGE IN CITIZEN' DAILY ROUTINE IN ALGIERS OR EVEN
THE NEARBY BLDA REGION, SCENE OF SEVERAL OF THE
RECENT INCIDENS. THIS LATEST UPTURN IN VIOLENCE
HAS NOT YET PROVIDED CONVINCING EVIDENCE OF NEW
CAPABILITIES ON THE PART OF EXTREMIST ELEMENTS, NOR
OF A GREATER THREAT TO REGIME STABILITY. AT THIS
POINT, WE SEE NO/NO REASON TO REVISE OUR ASSESSMENT
THAT THE GOA IS MAKING PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE
INSURGENCY THREAT -- BUT LESS PROGRESS IN REDUCING
TERRORISM. END SUMMARY.


3. (U) TERRORIST INCIDENTS AGAINST CIVILIANS
REMAIN FREQUENT IN ALGERIA, BUT NOVEMBER 1996
APPEARS TO BE A PARTICULARLY HORRIFIC MONTH.
MURDERS OF CIVILIANS APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED FROM
THE LEVELS EARLIER IN THE AUTUMN. THE LIST OF
RECENT ATTACKS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO:

-- THE NOVEMBER 5 MASSACRE OF 13 CIVILIANS IN
DAOUDA, IN TIPAZA WILAYA;

-- THE NOVEMBER 7 BOMBING IN A VILLAGE NEAR TLEMCEN,
IN WESTERN ALGERIA, WHICH KILLED FIVE, INCLUDING THE
VILLAGE MAYOR;

-- THE NOVEMBER 8 SLAUGHTER OF 31 PERSONS IN SIDI
EL KEBIR VILLAGE, OUTSIDE OF BLIDA;

-- THE NOVEMBER 10 BOMBING IN BIR KHADEM, OUTSIDE
OF ALGIERS, WHICH KILLED SEVEN (INCLUDING THE SISTER
OF AN EMBASSY FSN EMPLOYEE);

-- THE NOVEMBER 12 ATTACK WHICH KILLED 14 PERSONS
NEAR OUED ALLEUG, IN BLIDA WILAYA;

-- THE NOVEMBER 13 KILLINGS OF 29 PERSONS IN TWO
INCIDENTS IN MEDEA WILAYA;

-- THE NOVEMBER 15 MURDER OF A BULGARIAN CITIZEN IN
ALGIERS.


4. (C) FROM WHAT LITTLE WE CAN PICK EJFROM OUR
CONTACTS, THE RECENT SPATE OF INCIDENTS HAS
AGGRAVATED THE WORRIES OF MANY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE OF ALGIERS, ABOUT SECURITY. IN
SOME CASES, THESE INCIDENTS STIRRED VILLAGES TO
HASTEN CREATION OF LOCAL MILITIAS. FOR EXAMPLE,
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE MASSACRE AT SIDI EL KEBIR,
THE GOVERNMENT DISTRIBUTED ARMS TO VILLAGERS WHO
SUBSEQUENTLY KILLED TWO ALLEGED TERRORISTS,
ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS. AN ALGERIAN WHO LIVES
IN A VILLAGE NEAR THE JUNCTIONS OF BLIDA, TIPAZA AND
ALGIERS WILAYAS TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER 12 THAT MANY IN
HIS COMMUNITY FEAR AN ATTACK BY ARMED ISLAMISTS; HE
PREDICTED IT WAS ONLY A QUESTION OF TIME. IN
RESPONSE, THE VILLAGE HAS ASKED THE LOCAL MILITARY
AUTHORITIES FOR ARMS WITH WHICH TO ESTABLISH A
"SELF-PROTECTION" FORCE (SO FAR, AUTHORITIES HAVE
DECLINED TO SUPPLY WEAPONS).


5. (C) IN SOME CASES FAMILIES HAVE TAKEN FLIGHT.
A JOURNALIST WITH THE AVOWEDLY ANTI-ISLAMIST
NEWSPAPER LIBERTE TOLD US THAT ONE OF THEIR
REPORTERS SAW IN BLIDA ON NOVEMBER 18 HUNDREDS OF
PERSONS WHO HAD FLED THEIR HOMES IN REMOTE MOUNTAIN
LOCALES OUTSIDE OF THE CITY AND TAKEN REFUGE IN
DOWNTOWN BLIDA (ITSELF NOT THE SAFEST PLACE). THE
REPORTER SAID THAT SEVERAL OF THESE PEOPLE TOLD HIM
THE ARMED GROUPS OPERATING IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE
VOWED TO COMMIT MORE MASSACRES. (ACCORDING TO PRESS
REPORTS, THE BAND WHICH COMMITED THE NOVEMBER 12
MURDERS AT OUED ALLEUG LEFT A NOTE SIGNED BY THE
ARMED ISLAMIC GROUP (GIA) AND CONCLUDING WITH THE
EXPRESSION, "BLOOD, BLOOD, DESTRUCTION,
DESTRUCTION.")


6. (C) THE GOVERNMENT HAS CHANGED ITS MEDIA POLICY
IN RESPONSE TO THESE TERRORIST INCIDENTS. (IT HAD
BEEN GENERALLY RESTRAINING NEWSPAPERS FROM
PUBLISHING STORIES ABOUT THE SECURITY SITUATION.) A
JOURNALIST FROM AN ARABIC DAILY TOLD POLOFF NOVEMBER
19 THAT THE INFORMATION MINISTRY CALLED HIS
NEWSPAPER NOVEMBER 11 TO ASK WHY THE JOURNAL HAD NOT
HIGHLIGHTED THE SIDI EL KEBIR MASSACRE WITH A STORY
AND PHOTOS ON PAGE ONE LIKE OTHER NEWSPAPERS. THIS
SOURCE STATED THAT THE MINISTRY ENCOURAGED THE
NEWSPAPER TO GIVE GREATER EMPHASIS TO TERRORIST
ATTACKS; THE JOURNALIST COULDN'T EXPLAIN EXACTLY
WHY. MEANWHILE, THE TELEVISION NEWS HAS REPORTED
THE MANY INCIDENTS (AFTER THE DAILY TAKE OF STORIES
ABOUT RALLIES IN FAVOR OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL
REFERENDUM). AFTER THE SIDI EL KEBIR MASSACRE, THE
TELEVISION EVEN RAN GRUESOME PICTURES OF BODIES,
REMINISCENT OF BROADCASTS FROM 1994.


7. (C) DESPITE THE SPATE OF RECENT INCIDENTS, WE
DETECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM CITIZENS' DAILY ROUTINE IN
ALGIERS, ASIDE FROM A FEW EXTRA ROADBLOCKS. A
SENIOR JOURNALIST FROM THE ARABIC DAILY EL-KHABER
STRESSED TO POLOFF NOVEMBER 18 THAT LIFE IN AND
AROUND BLIDA APPEARS TO BE MORE OR LESS AS IT WAS
EARLIER IN THE AUTUMN. HE POINTED OUT THAT THE
SPARKLING WATER PRODUCTION PLANT IN SIDI EL-KEBIR IS
STILL OPERATING, FOR EXAMPLE. THE AFP CORRESPONDENT
HERE CAUTIONED POLOFF NOVEMBER 19 THAT SOME OF THE
MOST PUBLICIZED RECENT INCIDENTS WERE HOUR-LONG
ASSAULTS AGAINST A FEW HOMES; HE CONTRASTED THIS
WITH 1993 AND 1994, WHEN LARGER GROUPS SOMETIMES
OCCUPIED WHOLE VILLAGES FOR AN ENTIRE NIGHT, OR
ATTACKED MILITARY CAMPS.


COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) THIS SERIES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS DOES NOT
CAUSE US TO CHANGE OUR ASSESSMENT IN REFTEL THAT THE
GOA IS MAKING PROGRESS IN REDUCING THE INSURGENCY
THREAT -- BUT LESS PROGRESS IN REDUCING TERRORISM.
THE CENTRAL, MOUNTAINOUS WILAYAS OF BLIDA, TIPAZA,
AND MEDEA, WHERE MOST OF THE RECENT INCIDENTS TOOK
PLACE, HAVE LONG BEEN STRONGHOLDS OF ARMED
ISLAMISTS. EVEN THERE, WE DO NOT SEE CONCERTED
ATTACKS AGAINST INFRASTRUCTURE, NOR ARE WE AWARE OF
A SHARPLY HIGHER NUMBER OF MILITARY--AS OPPOSED TO
CIVILIAN--DEATHS. THUS, THE MANY INCIDENTS OF
NOVEMBER 1996 DO NOT YET PROVIDE EVIDENCE EITHER
THAT TERRORIST GROUPS HAVE GAINED SIGNIFICANT NEW
CAPABILITIES WITH WHICH TO THREATEN, MUCH LESS
TOPPLE, THE GOVERNMENT. MOREOVER, GIVEN THE LONG
SERIES OF UP AND DOWN CYCLES OF VIOLENCE HERE SINCE
1992, THESE LATEST ATROCITIES DO NOT SIGNIFY THAT
THE ALGERIAN MILITARY'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE
TERRORIST GROUPS HAS SUFFERED A SERIOUS REVERSE.
RATHER, NOVEMBER 1996 SERVES TO REMIND THAT ENDING
THE TERRORISM HERE WILL BE A LONG PROCESS AT BEST.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT INCIDENTS ARE
DESIGNED, AT LEAST IN PART, TO DISSUADE CITIZENS
FROM VENTURING FORTH TO VOTE IN THE NOVEMBER 28
CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM. IF SO, WE HAVE GOTTEN NO
SENSE THAT THE EXTREMISTS' INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN IS
HAVING MUCH IMPACT.


STAFFORD