Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95ZAGREB817
1995-02-23 16:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY

Tags:  NOTAG HR 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817 

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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: War Crimes
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION
PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000817

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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: War Crimes
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION
PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY


1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT

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SUMMARY
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2. WHILE THE CROATIAN POLITICAL OPPOSITION HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN IN BEHIND THE GOVERNMENT'S POSITION ON TERMINATING
THE UNPROFOR MANDATE HERE, SOME PARTIES, INCLUDING THE
SERBIAN PEOPLE'S PARTY (SNS),THE ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY
(IDS) AND THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) HAVE
POINTED OUT THE DANGERS THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR
WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA. THESE THREE PARTIES HAVE NOT
BOUGHT INTO THE NATIONALISTIC RHETORIC THAT HAS BEEN
ECHOED BY THE OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES AND HDZ, AND WHICH
HAS CLOUDED THE PROPOSALS FOR AUTONOMY FOUND IN THE Z-4
PLAN. HND OFFICIALS CONSIDER THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND
BASIS FOR FURTHER TALKS. THE IDS CHAMPIONS REGIONAL
AUTONOMY, BUT IS CONCERNED THAT THE Z-4 PLAN WOULD GRANT
AUTONOMY TO SERBS WHILE OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS MUST LIVE WITH
CENTRALIZED AUTHORITY IN ZAGREB. END SUMMARY.

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CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND)
--------------
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3. ON FEBRUARY 22 THE AMBASSADOR MET WITH STIPE MESIC,
PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN INDEPENDENT DEMOCRATS (HND) WHO
SAID THAT HE CONSIDERS THE Z-4 PLAN TO BE A SOUND BASIS
FOR FURTHER TALKS. BROAD AUTONOMY AND DEMILITARIZATION,
HE BELIEVES, ARE A NECESSARY CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE
FOR SERBS TO AGREE TO REINTEGRATION. HE CITED EVIDENCE OF
CROATIAN WAR CRIMES -- THE PLANNED DESTRUCTION OF SERB
HOUSES AND THE INABILITY OF THE POLICE TO FIND THE
PERPETRATORS, AS WELL AS THE ALLEGED INVOLVEMENT OF
TUDJMAN'S CHIEF BODYGUARD IN THE MURDER OF A SERB FAMILY
IN THE ZAGREB SUBURBS -- AS A MAJOR FACTOR IN SERB
DISTRUST OF THE GOC. HE SAID THAT THE GOC ATTEMPT TO
LIMIT THE RIGHT TO DUAL CITIZENSHIP TO CROATS ONLY IS
UNWORKABLE, THAT RIGHT MUST BE APPLIE
D TO SERBS, ITALIANS,
AND OTHER MINORITIES ON AN EQUAL BASIS.

4. MESIC THINKS TUDJMAN WILL CONSIDER A REVISED UNPROFOR
MANDATE (UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) WHEN HE REALIZES THAT
MILOSEVIC IS PLAYING TRICKS. MESIC SAID THAT TUDJMAN'S
VISION OF AN ETHNICALLY PURE GREATER CROATIA IS
FUNDAMENTALLY AT ODDS WITH MILOSEVIC'S GREATER SERBIA.
MESIC THOUGHT THAT A NEW MANDATE WOULD BUILD TRUST BETWEEN
SERBS AND CROATS AND FACILITATE REINTEGRATION IF IT
PROVIDED A SECURE ENVIRONMENT FOR CROATIA'S SERBS AND THE
RETURN OF DISPLACED PERSONS, AS WELL AS ESTABLISHED
CONTROL OF CROATIA'S BORDERS. HE VIEWED TERMINATION OF
THE MANDATE AS A POINTLESS MOVE WHICH WOULD SERVE TO UNDO
ALL THE GAINS ACHIEVED UNDER THE ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE
BUILDING MEASURES AGREEMENT BETWEEN ZAGREB AND KNIN.

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5. IN ONE OF THE FEW FAVORABLE PRESS ARTICLES, PUBLISHED
IN THE WEEKLY "GLOBUS," HND VICE PRESIDENT JOSIP MANOLIC
WROTE THAT Z-4 IS THE "MOST SERIOUS INTERNATIONAL DOCUMENT
OFFERING A SOLUTION TO THE CRISIS IN CROATIA." HE WAS
CRITICAL OF THE GOC FOR NOT PROPOSING THEIR OWN PLAN,
WHICH WAS EMPHASIZED BY MESIC WHEN HE TOLD THE AMBASSADOR
THAT THE GOC SHOULD HAVE HAD SOMETHING TO FILL THE VOID
WHEN THEY CANCELLED THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. MANOLIC
CRITICIZED THE VIEW THAT Z-4 WOULD CREATE A STATE WITHIN A
STATE, WRITING THAT, IN HIS OPINION, CONSTITUTIONAL LAW
GIVES THE SERBS THE RIGHT TO HAVE ADMINISTRATIVE AND COURT
AUTHORITY AS WELL AS PARLIAMENTARY INSTITUTIONS TO PASS
LEGISLATION ON ISSUES OF LOCAL AUTONOMY.

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ISTRIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (IDS)
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6. THE IDS HAS LONG BEEN A CHAMPION OF REGIONAL AUTONOMY,
BUT IS UNCOMFORTABLE WITH THE Z-4 PLAN'S GRANTING LOCAL
AUTONOMY ONLY TO SERBS. ON FEBRUARY 14 POLOFF VISITED THE
ISTRIAN PORT CITY OF PULA TO MEET WITH IDS PRESIDENT AND
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT IVAN JAKOVCIC, PULA'S IDS DEPUTY








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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 SMEC-00 INL-02 OASY-00 DODE-00
DOEE-00 FBIE-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-01
ADS-00 M-00 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-00
PRS-01 P-01 SB-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SS-00 TRSE-00
T-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 PRMC-01 DRL-09
G-00 /022W
-------------- A9A3F1 231705Z /38
R 231646Z FEB 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 4954
INFO AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
USCINCEUR INTEL VAIHINGEN GE
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST

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E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR SR BK
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTY KALEIDOSCOPE: SOME OPPOSITION
PARTIES' SUPPORT Z-4, AUTONOMY

MAYOR ALDO SKIRA, AND PARTY SECRETARY EMIL SOLDATIC. THE
MAIN ISSUE ON THE AGENDA WAS THE RECENT RULING AGAINST
REGIONAL AUTONOMY BY THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT WHICH STRUCK
DOWN 19 PROVISIONS OF THE ISTRIAN COUNTY STATUTE
PERTAINING TO OFFICIAL USE OF THE ITALIAN LANGUAGE AND
DECENTRALIZATION OF LOCAL ADMINISTRATION.

7. SOLDATIC SAID THAT THE IDS'S OPTIONS TO CHANGE THE
COURT'S DECISION ARE LIMITED. THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT'S
RULING WAS FINAL AND THERE WAS NO AVENUE FOR PURSUING AN
APPEAL. IDS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO LOBBY THE SABOR
FOR CHANGES IN THE CONSTITUTION. BEYOND THAT THE IDS WILL
TRY TO REFORMULATE SOME STATUTES INTO SOMETHING ACCEPTABLE
TO THE GOC AND CONTINUE TO TEST THE LAW TO SEE HOW MUCH
AUTONOMY ZAGREB WILL ALLOW. THEY ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT NOT
ONLY COULD THE DECISION PROVIDE MOTIVATION TO ANTI-CROAT
EXTREMISTS IN BOTH ITALY AND ISTRIA TO PURSUE MORE VOCAL
CAMPAIGNS FOR SEPARATISM AND BORDER CHANGES, BUT IT ALSO
DID NOT BODE WELL FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GOC CONCESSIONS
TO KNIN.

8. ALONG WITH THE SNS, IDS UNANIMOUSLY OPPOSED
TERMINATION OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. IN PRIVATE JAKOVCIC
SAID THAT THE GOC DECISION ON UNPROFOR AND THE "RSK'S"
REFUSAL TO EVEN LOOK AT THE Z-4 PLAN MADE HIM, FOR THE
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FIRST TIME, "REALLY SCARED FOR THE FUTURE." BOTH SIDES
HAD TAKEN EXTREME POSITIONS WHICH WERE NOT EASY TO BACK
DOWN FROM, AND THE GOC WAS NOT FACING UP TO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD LOSE A WAR WITH THE "RSK,"
ESPECIALLY WITH BSA AND FRY SUPPORT. HE SAID HE HAD
CONSIDERED THE IDEA OF OFFERING TO LEAD A GROUP OF
OPPOSITION LEADERS TO KNIN IN AN EFFORT TO RESTART
NEGOTIATIONS, BUT ADMITTED THAT THE IDEA HAD PROBLEMS (FOR
INSTANCE, WHAT WOULD THEY DO IF GREETED WITH THE "RSK"
FLAG AND ANTHEM). ALSO, OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES PROBABLY
WOULD NOT SUPPORT SUCH A MOVE BECAUSE MANY ARE SUPPORTING
THE GOC POSITION.

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CROATIAN PEASANTS PARTY (HSS)
--------------

9. THE HSS TYPIFIES THE STANCE ASSUMED BY MOST OF THE
REST OF THE OPPOSITION. NEW HSS PRESIDENT ZLATKO TOMCIC,
IN A CALL ON THE AMBASSADOR NOVEMBER 8, SAID THAT THE HSS
SUPPORTED THE GOC DECISION TO TERMINATE THE UNPROFOR
MANDATE, BUT THEY WOULD SUPPORT A REVISION OF THE MANDATE
(UNDER A DIFFERENT NAME) IF IT PROVIDED GUARANTEES TO
CONTROL CROATIA'S BORDERS. TOMCIC SAID THAT IN GENERAL
THE HSS SUPPORTS THE Z-4 PLAN AS A BASIS FOR DISCUSSION
BUT HAD SERIOUS RESERVATIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE ISSUE OF
TIES TO SERBIA. TOMCIC CLAIMED THE HSS WAS IN FAVOR OF
ADMINISTRATIVE AUTONOMY FOR THE SERBS, BUT WHEN ASKED BY
THE AMBASSADOR IF THIS MEANT THAT SERBS COULD PURCHASE,
FOR EXAMPLE, SCHOOL TEXTBOOKS FROM SERBIA, TOMCIC
ANSWERED, "ABSOLUTELY NOT." A FLUSTERED SILENCE ENSUED
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WHEN THE AMBASSADOR POINTED OUT THAT THAT WOULD DENY
AUTONOMY TO THE SERBS.

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COMMENT
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10. THE ATTITUDE OF THE HND AND IDS (AND SNS) -- THIRD,
AND, ROUGHLY, SIXTH LARGEST PARTIES IN THE SABOR -- IS A
SMALL HOPEFUL SIGN THAT ATTITUDES AMONG THE OPPOSITION'S
CONSTITUENCIES HAVE NOT SOLIDIFIED AGAINST SERB AUTONOMY
AND THE Z-4. THERE ARE AT LEAST A FEW VOICES CHALLENGING
TUDJMAN'S RATHER UNREALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF WHAT UNPROFOR'S
DEPARTURE WILL MEAN FOR CROATIA.

GALBRAITH















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