Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95ZAGREB2784
1995-07-25 18:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED,

Tags:  HR NOTAG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784 

SIPDIS


USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE

E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED,
EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784

SIPDIS


USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE

E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED,
EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

--------------
"ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED
--------------


2. ON JULY 25, POLOFFS MET WITH UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF
GENERAL KOLSTEREN TO DISCUSS THE "ARSK" OFFENSIVE IN BIHAC
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GOC REACTION. KOLSTEREN TOLD US
THAT THE UN'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN BIHAC LEADS TO
THE CONCLUSION THAT THE OBJECTIVE OF THE "ARSK" OPERATION
IS ONLY TO RETAKE AREAS OF THE POCKET HELD BY ABDIC PRIOR
TO HIS EXPULSION BY THE GOBH V CORPS LAST YEAR. ATTACKS
BY THE BSA ARE BELIEVED TO BE ONLY DIVERSIONARY. "ARSK-"
ABDIC ACTION WOULD CREATE A RUFFER ZONE TO PROTECT SERB
VILLAGES FROM ATTACKS BY GOBH FORCES, WHICH HE RLAMED FOR
PRECIPITATING THE ATTACKS. HE SAID THAT GORH MILITARY
COMMAND LOCATED V CORPS HQ IN DOWNTOWN BIHAC IN A
DISINGENUOUS EFFORT TO DRAW NATO AIRSTRIKES ON ATTACKING
SERBS.
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02784 01 OF 02 251724Z


3. MEANWHILE, UN SENIOR POLITICAL ADVISOR ALMSTROM TOLD
US JULY 25 THAT THE LEVEL OF FIGHTING IN BIHAC SEEMED TO
HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT. CONTRARY TO KOLSTEREN, ALMSTROM
SAID THAT UN ANALYSTS ARE QUESTIONING "WHETHER THE BOSNIAN
SERBS" ARE INVOLVED OR NOT; ALMSTROM ECHOED KOLSTEREN'S
COMMENTS THAT THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION LINE LOOKS VERY
MUCH LIKE THE AREA THAT ABDIC FORCES CONTROLLED ABOUT A
YEAR AGO AND SPECULATED THAT THE ARSK MIGHT BE HELPING
ABDIC TO REGAIN LOST GROUND IN RETURN FOR HIS COOPERATION
NOW AND IN THE PAST. KOLSTEREN AND ALMSTROM BOTH DOUBTED
THAT THE ARSK WOULD PRESS ITS ATTACK BECAUSE THEY MUST
RECOGNIZE THE CROATIAN THREAT. (ALMSTROM ADDED THAT ALL
FORCES IN THE AREA HAD SCRUPULOUSLY AVOIDED ACTIVITY IN
THE SAFE ZONE, I.E., BIHAC TOWN ITSELF).

--------------
GOC WILL RESPOND BEFORE NOVEMBER
--------------


4. IN KOLSTEREN'S OPINION, THE GOC COULD USE ATTACKS ON
BIHAC AS AN EXCUSE TO RETAKE THE "RSK" BUT HAD NO
INDICATIONS THAT ANY ASSAULT WAS IMMINENT. HE SAID THAT
THE HV COULD BEGIN AN ATTACK INTO SECTOR SOUTH FROM THE
FREE CROATIA AND BOSNIA IN A FEW DAYS OR WEEKS, BUT WOULD
DEFINITELY MOVE BEFORE THE END OF THE UNCRO MANDATE IN
NOVEMBER AND THE ONSET OF WINTER. HE SAID THAT THE LONGER
THE GOC WAITS TO ATTACK, THE LONGER "ARSK" MILITARY
COMMANDER GENERAL MRKSIC HAS TO STRENGTHEN HIS FORCES. IF

THE GOC DECIDES TO ATTACK, HE TOLD US THAT HE THINKS
MILOSEVIC WILL DO NOTHING TO IN DEFENSE OF THE "RSK"
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02784 01 OF 02 251724Z
BECAUSE HE HAS EVERYTHING HE WANTS IN SECTOR EAST, AND THE
BSA WILL PROVIDE LITTLE HELP BECAUSE IT IS STRETCHED THIN
IN BOSNIA.


5. ALMSTROM SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE
CROATS UNDERTOOK SOME ACTIVITY IN THE LIVNO VALLEY, BUT
THE UN HAD "NO EVIDENCE" AS OF 1600 JULY 25 THAT THEY HAD
DONE SO. (COMMENT: DATT HAS REPORTED THAT AS OF 0500 ON
JULY 25, THE HVO BEGAN AN OPERATION AGAINST GLAMOC.)
TROUBLE HAD FLARED AGAIN NEAR OSIJEK ON JULY 24, ALMSTROM
SAID, BUT HAD BEEN SEEMINGLY CALMED AGAIN BY LOCAL
COMMANDERS.

-------------- --------------
UNPF CHIEF OF STAFF OPPOSES WIDER USE OF AIRSTRIKES
-------------- --------------


6. TURNING TO BOSNIA, KOLSTEREN LAUNCHED INTO A TIRADE
AGAINST U.S. PRESSURE FOR AIRSTRIKES AND LIFTING THE ARMS
EMBARGO ON THE GOBH. HE SAID THAT IF UNPF RELINQUISHES
THE "DUAL KEY" THEN UNPROFOR WILL BE FORCED TO WITHDRAW
FROM BOSNIA IMMEDIATELY, BECAUSE AIRSTRIKES WOULD ENTAIL









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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 DOEE-00 SRPP-00
DS-00 EB-01 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-06 L-01
ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PM-00 PRS-01 P-01
SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01 TRSE-00 USIE-00
SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRME-01 DRL-09 G-00
/028W
-------------- DCD8A0 251725Z /38
O 251822Z JUL 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6561
INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//POLAD//
COMSIXTHFLT //N2//
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
CINCUSAREUR HEIDELBERG GE//J3/J4/J5/POLAD//
CINCUSAFE RAMSTEIN AB GE//DO/LG/XOX/IN/POLAD//
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-4/J-5//
NSC WASHDC
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002784

SIPDIS


USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL OSCE

E.O. 12356: DECL: 7/25/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UN OFFICIALS SAY "ARSK" ATTACK ON BIHAC LIMITED,
EXPECT GOC REACTION BEFORE NOVEMBER

WIDESPREAD TAKING OF UN HOSTAGES, EVEN AFTER TAKING STEPS
TO SECURE PERSONNEL. (NOTE: HE ALSO STATED THAT SYG
BUTROS GHALI STILL RETAINS ONE OF THE "KEYS.") HE SAID
THAT THE USE OF CLOSE AIR SUPPORT MUST BE TIED TO SPECIFIC
TACTICAL TARGETS LOCATED IN AREAS WHERE THE BSA IS
ATTACKING SAFE AREAS. IN HIS OPINION, THE BOSNIAN SERBS
ARE INCAPABLE OF MAKING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN STRIKES ON
STRATEGIC TARGETS, SUCH AS AMMO DUMPS AND AIR DEFENSES,
AND THEIR ACTIONS AGAINST UN PROTECTED AREAS.

--------------
SERBS AND BOSNIAKS GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES
--------------


7. KOLSTEREN STRESSED THAT THE UN MUST REMAIN IMPARTIAL.
IN THE CASE OF THE BSA ATTACKS ON SREBRENICA, HE SAID THAT
DUTCH SOLDIERS COULD ONLY CONFIRM THE FEW CASES OF
ATROCITIES THAT THEY WITNESSED. HE CHARGED THAT VIOLENCE
BETWEEN RIVAL MUSLIM GROUPS (THOSE THAT WANTED TO
SURRENDER AND THOSE THAT DIDN'T) WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02784 02 OF 02 251725Z
LARGE NUMBERS OF KILLINGS. IN THE CASE OF ZEPA, HE
CHARACTERIZED THE BOSNIAKS STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE POCKET
AS THUGS AND CRIMINALS, RESPONSIBLE FOR CRIMES AGAINST
SERB AND MUSLIM CIVILIANS, WHO ARE AFRAID OF BEING
CAPTURED BY THE BSA.

SITUATION IN ZEPA
--------------


8. ALMSTROM DENIED BROADCAST NEWS REPORTS THAT ZEPA HAD
FINALLY "FALLEN" TO THE SERBS. HE SAID THE SITUATION
THERE REMAINED "CONFUSING." HE ADMITTED THE UKRAINIANS
WERE HUNKERED DOWN, TAKING MORTAR FIRE FROM BOTH (I.E.
MUSLIM AND SERB) SIDES AND UNABLE TO DO MUCH OBSERVING.
B-H FORCES WERE PUTTING UP A STIFF RESISTANCE; MLADIC WAS
CURIOUSLY RELUCTANT TO MOVE IN AND FINISH THE JOB, BUT HE
MUST ALSO BE CHAFING, HAVING CLAIMED ALMOST A WEEK AGO
THAT HIS ARMY HAD TAKEN CONTROL OF ZEPA. ALMSTROM
REPORTED VARIOUS "RUMORS" THAT THERE WAS SOME AGREEMENT
UNDER WHICH UNPROFOR WOULD COLLECT WEAPONS IN ZEPA IN
RETURN FOR WHICH THE CIVILIANS COULD BE RELEASED BUT
AKASHI WAS OF THE FIRM VIEW THAT VULNERABLE CIVILIANS;
MUST BE ALLOWED TO LEAVE, PERIOD, WITHOUT ANY
PRECONDITIONS.

GALBRAITH





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