Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95ZAGREB2622
1995-07-13 16:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:
GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02622
SIPDIS
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
E.O. 12356: 7/13/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO
SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS
DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02622
SIPDIS
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
E.O. 12356: 7/13/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO
SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS
DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------
2. SPEAKING JULY 13, CROATIAN FM GRANIC USED THE FALL
OF SREBRENICA TO REINFORCE THE POINT HE HAS BEEN MAKING
FOR SOME TIME, THAT BELGRADE IS RESPONSIBLE AND THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST EXERT STRONG PRESSURE ON
MILOSEVIC. OVERALL, GRANIC'S MESSAGE WAS ONE OF
REASSURANCE THAT CROATIA REMAINED COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL
RESOLUTION OF THE REGION'S PROBLEMS AND RESTRAINT IN
THE FACE OF PROVOCATION. BUT HE DID LAY DOWN MARKERS
CONCERNING UNCRO'S NONPERFORMANCE OF ITS MANDATE AND
POSSIBLE SERB MILITARY THREATS TO BIHAC. REFERRING TO
EVIDENCE OF A SERB BUILDUP AROUND BIHAC, HE MADE CLEAR
THIS WOULD BE OF MUCH MORE DIRECT CONCERN TO CROATIA,
AND COULD LEAD TO A "WIDENING OF THE WAR," THOUGH HE
STOPPED SHORT OF PREDICTING CROATIAN MILITARY ACTION TO
PRESERVE BIHAC'S "PROTECTED ZONE" STATUS. END SUMMARY
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z
AND COMMENT.
3. CROATIAN FM GRANIC CONVOKED AMBASSADORS/CHARGES OF
CONTACT GROUP, UNSC, EU TROIKA, AND OSCE PRESIDENCY
COUNTRIES JULY 13 FOR A REAOOUT OF THE CROATIAN VIEW OF
THE FALL OF SREBRENICA.
--------------
SITUATION ON THE GROUND
--------------
4. REVIEWING THE SITUATION IN SREBRENICA AND ZEPA,
GRANIC ADDED LITTLE TO WHAT THE UN HAS ALREADY PUT OUT.
HE USED THE FIGURE OF 55,000 FOR TOTAL REFUGEES AND
NOTED THAT MILITARY AGE MEN WERE BEING SEPARATED OUT
AND WOULD BE CHARGED WITH WAR CRIMES. HE CALLED THE
SERB ACTION IN CAPTURING THE "ONE TRULY DEMILITARIZED
ZONE" IN B-H "UNJUSTIFIED," CLAIMING THAT CHARGES THAT
MILITARY ATTACKS WERE BEING ORGANIZED FROM INSIDE
SREBRENICA WERE GROUNDLESS AND COULD BE DISPROVED BY
LOOKING AT THE LOW "RATIO OF WEAPONS" FOUND AMONG THE
PEOPLE THERE. GRANIC SAID THAT THE NEW REFUGEES WOULD
MOSTLY END UP ON FEDERATION TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY TUZLA
AND ZENICA, AND WOULD DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION THERE
BY FURTHER CROWOING OF AN ALREADY-REDUCED SPACE.
NOTING THERE HAD BEEN MORE FIGHTING AROUND ZEPA, HE
SAID CONFIDENCE THAT THE UN WOULD DO ANYTHING TO
PROTECT ZEPA WAS "ALMOST NIL."
-
--------------
WARMONGER MILOSEVIC AND PEACELOVING CROATIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z
--------------
5. GRANIC ARGUED THAT NEITHER KARADZIC NOR MLADIC
COULD DECIDE TO CONDUCT ACTIONS LIKE SREBRENICA WITHOUT
MILOSEVIC'S OK. BELGRADE WAS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A
SOLUTION BY FORCE; THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS
"APPEASING" HIM -- HE STEPPED UP THE WAR, JUST A FEW
DAYS AFTER A RENEWAL OF LIMITED SANCTIONS RELIEF, AND
SUFFERED NO CONSEQUENCES.
6. THE GOC, SAID GRANIC, WOULD CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO
THE LETTER AND SPIRIT OF THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT AND
THE CONTACT GROUP PLAN. IT WOULD NOT RESPOND TO
PROVOCATIONS, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT.
"EVEN THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS" WOULD NOT SWAY ZAGREB
FROM ITS PEACEFUL COURSE. EVENTS IN SREBRENICA WOULD
BIND CROATIA AND B-H MORE CLOSELY, AND CROATIA WOULD
CONTINUE ITS STRONG SUPPORT FOR BUILDING THE
FEDERATION. AS SOON AS THE LOGISTICS COULD BE WORKED
OUT, TUDJMAN AND IZETBEGOVIC WOULD MEET WITH SENIOR
FEDERATION OFFICIALS. (NOTE: GRANIC TOLD A/DCM JULY
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ6397
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6397
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-08 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02
PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01
TRSE-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PRME-01 DRL-09 G-00
/029W
-------------- D927B6 131632Z /45
O 131625Z JUL 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6401
INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21//
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
USNMR SHAPE BE//POLAD//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5//
NSC WASHDC
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002622
SIPDIS
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
E.O. 12356: 7/13/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO
SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS
DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
10 THAT HE HAD CONCLUDED ARRANGEMENTS FOR A JULY 21
MEETING ON BRIJUNI, WHERE TUDJMAN IS VACATIONING.)
--------------
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
--------------
7. CONTINUING, GRANIC SAID CROATIA WANTED A REVIVAL OF
THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO THAT END, URGED THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SEEK RENEWED PROGRESS ON
PEACE THROUGH STRONG PRESSURE ON SERBIA; TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT UNCRO FULFILLED ITS
MANDATE; NOT TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON SERBIA UNTIL IT HAD
RECOMMITTED ITSELF TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND RECOGNIZED
BOTH B-H AND/AND CROATIA. THE GOVERNMENTS REPRESENTED
AT THE BRIEFING, HE SAID, SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE
TO ACTIVATE THE PEACE PROCESS, INCLUDING USE OF UNPF,
THE RAPID REACTION FORCE, AND PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC.
-
--------------
BIHAC, THE ONE TO WATCH
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
--------------
8. SEEMING ALMOST AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT, GRANLC ADDED
THAT CROATIA WAS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED BY OBSERVED
"MASSING OF SERB FORCES" IN THE BIHAC POCKET,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SLUNJ. HE SAID THAT ANY SERB ACTION TO
TAKE BIHAC WOULD BE TAKEN "EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY." ASKED
LATER WHAT ACTION CROATIA WOULD TAKE IF THE SERBS
ATTACKED BIHAC, GRANIC SAID HE HOPED IT "WOULD NOT COME
TO THAT" BECAUSE SUCH ACTION WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THE
SERBS IN "SEVERAL WAYS." GRANIC SAID TUDJMAN'S MESSAGE
WAS THAT IT WAS CRUCIAL TO "ACCELERATE THE PEACE
PROCESS," AND THIS WAS WHERE CROATIA'S EFFORTS WOULD
CONCENTRATE. HE NOTED THE POSSIBILITY OF "INDIRECT
HELP," E.G., SUCH AS HVO ACTION IN LIVANSKO POLJE,
WHICH HAD "HELPED RELIEVE PRESSURE" ON THE BOSNIAN V
CORPS WHEN BIHAC WAS THREATENED AT THE END OF LAST
YEAR. (NOTE: AT ONE POINT GRANIC SAID THAT AN "ATTACK
ON BIHAC BY THE SERBS WOULD CERTAINLY WIDEN THE WAR"
BUT THIS WAS NOT TRANSLATED BY THE INTERPRETER.)
9. SARAJEVO MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.
KLEMP
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
SIPDIS
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
E.O. 12356: 7/13/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO
SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS
DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------
2. SPEAKING JULY 13, CROATIAN FM GRANIC USED THE FALL
OF SREBRENICA TO REINFORCE THE POINT HE HAS BEEN MAKING
FOR SOME TIME, THAT BELGRADE IS RESPONSIBLE AND THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST EXERT STRONG PRESSURE ON
MILOSEVIC. OVERALL, GRANIC'S MESSAGE WAS ONE OF
REASSURANCE THAT CROATIA REMAINED COMMITTED TO PEACEFUL
RESOLUTION OF THE REGION'S PROBLEMS AND RESTRAINT IN
THE FACE OF PROVOCATION. BUT HE DID LAY DOWN MARKERS
CONCERNING UNCRO'S NONPERFORMANCE OF ITS MANDATE AND
POSSIBLE SERB MILITARY THREATS TO BIHAC. REFERRING TO
EVIDENCE OF A SERB BUILDUP AROUND BIHAC, HE MADE CLEAR
THIS WOULD BE OF MUCH MORE DIRECT CONCERN TO CROATIA,
AND COULD LEAD TO A "WIDENING OF THE WAR," THOUGH HE
STOPPED SHORT OF PREDICTING CROATIAN MILITARY ACTION TO
PRESERVE BIHAC'S "PROTECTED ZONE" STATUS. END SUMMARY
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z
AND COMMENT.
3. CROATIAN FM GRANIC CONVOKED AMBASSADORS/CHARGES OF
CONTACT GROUP, UNSC, EU TROIKA, AND OSCE PRESIDENCY
COUNTRIES JULY 13 FOR A REAOOUT OF THE CROATIAN VIEW OF
THE FALL OF SREBRENICA.
--------------
SITUATION ON THE GROUND
--------------
4. REVIEWING THE SITUATION IN SREBRENICA AND ZEPA,
GRANIC ADDED LITTLE TO WHAT THE UN HAS ALREADY PUT OUT.
HE USED THE FIGURE OF 55,000 FOR TOTAL REFUGEES AND
NOTED THAT MILITARY AGE MEN WERE BEING SEPARATED OUT
AND WOULD BE CHARGED WITH WAR CRIMES. HE CALLED THE
SERB ACTION IN CAPTURING THE "ONE TRULY DEMILITARIZED
ZONE" IN B-H "UNJUSTIFIED," CLAIMING THAT CHARGES THAT
MILITARY ATTACKS WERE BEING ORGANIZED FROM INSIDE
SREBRENICA WERE GROUNDLESS AND COULD BE DISPROVED BY
LOOKING AT THE LOW "RATIO OF WEAPONS" FOUND AMONG THE
PEOPLE THERE. GRANIC SAID THAT THE NEW REFUGEES WOULD
MOSTLY END UP ON FEDERATION TERRITORY, ESPECIALLY TUZLA
AND ZENICA, AND WOULD DESTABILIZE THE SITUATION THERE
BY FURTHER CROWOING OF AN ALREADY-REDUCED SPACE.
NOTING THERE HAD BEEN MORE FIGHTING AROUND ZEPA, HE
SAID CONFIDENCE THAT THE UN WOULD DO ANYTHING TO
PROTECT ZEPA WAS "ALMOST NIL."
-
--------------
WARMONGER MILOSEVIC AND PEACELOVING CROATIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02622 01 OF 02 131536Z
--------------
5. GRANIC ARGUED THAT NEITHER KARADZIC NOR MLADIC
COULD DECIDE TO CONDUCT ACTIONS LIKE SREBRENICA WITHOUT
MILOSEVIC'S OK. BELGRADE WAS ATTEMPTING TO IMPOSE A
SOLUTION BY FORCE; THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS
"APPEASING" HIM -- HE STEPPED UP THE WAR, JUST A FEW
DAYS AFTER A RENEWAL OF LIMITED SANCTIONS RELIEF, AND
SUFFERED NO CONSEQUENCES.
6. THE GOC, SAID GRANIC, WOULD CONTINUE TO ADHERE TO
THE LETTER AND SPIRIT OF THE WASHINGTON AGREEMENT AND
THE CONTACT GROUP PLAN. IT WOULD NOT RESPOND TO
PROVOCATIONS, AND WOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE RESTRAINT.
"EVEN THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS" WOULD NOT SWAY ZAGREB
FROM ITS PEACEFUL COURSE. EVENTS IN SREBRENICA WOULD
BIND CROATIA AND B-H MORE CLOSELY, AND CROATIA WOULD
CONTINUE ITS STRONG SUPPORT FOR BUILDING THE
FEDERATION. AS SOON AS THE LOGISTICS COULD BE WORKED
OUT, TUDJMAN AND IZETBEGOVIC WOULD MEET WITH SENIOR
FEDERATION OFFICIALS. (NOTE: GRANIC TOLD A/DCM JULY
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ6397
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6397
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 OASY-00 SRPP-00 EB-01 H-01
TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-08 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02
PA-01 PRS-01 P-01 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-01
TRSE-00 USIE-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PRME-01 DRL-09 G-00
/029W
-------------- D927B6 131632Z /45
O 131625Z JUL 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6401
INFO HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J5-PMA/J21//
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
USNMR SHAPE BE//POLAD//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5//
NSC WASHDC
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 002622
SIPDIS
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
E.O. 12356: 7/13/00
TAGS:
SUBJECT: GRANIC SAYS CROATIA WILL NOT REACT TO
SREBRENICA, WANTS PRESSURE ON BELGRADE, LAYS
DOWN MARKERS ON UNCRO, BIHAC
10 THAT HE HAD CONCLUDED ARRANGEMENTS FOR A JULY 21
MEETING ON BRIJUNI, WHERE TUDJMAN IS VACATIONING.)
--------------
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
--------------
7. CONTINUING, GRANIC SAID CROATIA WANTED A REVIVAL OF
THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO THAT END, URGED THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO SEEK RENEWED PROGRESS ON
PEACE THROUGH STRONG PRESSURE ON SERBIA; TO TAKE
IMMEDIATE STEPS TO ENSURE THAT UNCRO FULFILLED ITS
MANDATE; NOT TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON SERBIA UNTIL IT HAD
RECOMMITTED ITSELF TO THE PEACE PROCESS AND RECOGNIZED
BOTH B-H AND/AND CROATIA. THE GOVERNMENTS REPRESENTED
AT THE BRIEFING, HE SAID, SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE
TO ACTIVATE THE PEACE PROCESS, INCLUDING USE OF UNPF,
THE RAPID REACTION FORCE, AND PRESSURE ON MILOSEVIC.
-
--------------
BIHAC, THE ONE TO WATCH
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02622 02 OF 02 131536Z
--------------
8. SEEMING ALMOST AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT, GRANLC ADDED
THAT CROATIA WAS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED BY OBSERVED
"MASSING OF SERB FORCES" IN THE BIHAC POCKET,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SLUNJ. HE SAID THAT ANY SERB ACTION TO
TAKE BIHAC WOULD BE TAKEN "EXTREMELY SERIOUSLY." ASKED
LATER WHAT ACTION CROATIA WOULD TAKE IF THE SERBS
ATTACKED BIHAC, GRANIC SAID HE HOPED IT "WOULD NOT COME
TO THAT" BECAUSE SUCH ACTION WOULD BE DANGEROUS FOR THE
SERBS IN "SEVERAL WAYS." GRANIC SAID TUDJMAN'S MESSAGE
WAS THAT IT WAS CRUCIAL TO "ACCELERATE THE PEACE
PROCESS," AND THIS WAS WHERE CROATIA'S EFFORTS WOULD
CONCENTRATE. HE NOTED THE POSSIBILITY OF "INDIRECT
HELP," E.G., SUCH AS HVO ACTION IN LIVANSKO POLJE,
WHICH HAD "HELPED RELIEVE PRESSURE" ON THE BOSNIAN V
CORPS WHEN BIHAC WAS THREATENED AT THE END OF LAST
YEAR. (NOTE: AT ONE POINT GRANIC SAID THAT AN "ATTACK
ON BIHAC BY THE SERBS WOULD CERTAINLY WIDEN THE WAR"
BUT THIS WAS NOT TRANSLATED BY THE INTERPRETER.)
9. SARAJEVO MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.
KLEMP
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN