Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95ZAGREB1763
1995-05-03 19:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:
UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3 MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
REF: ZAGREB 175 AND PREVIOUS
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
REF: ZAGREB 175 AND PREVIOUS
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
2. FONMIN GRANIC DETAILED THE SUCCESS OF THE CROATIAN
FORCES TO THE DIP CORPS ON MAY 3. HE ANNOUNCED A
"CEASEFIRE" HAD BEEN AGREED WITH THE SERBS, WHICH HE HOPED
WOULD END THE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB. (NOTE: OUR FOLLOW UP
CONTACTS WITH THE UN INDICATE THAT GRANIC MAY HAVE SPOKEN
TOO SOON IN ANNOUNCING A CEASEFIRE, IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY
AN AGREEMENT FOR THE EVACUATION OF SERBS FROM A POCKET IN
THE NORTH OF THE SECTOR.) THE GOC HAD DECIDED NOT TO
RETALIATE FOR THE MISSILE ATTACKS OF MAY 2 AND 3, BUT
FURTHER ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE A RESPONSE. PRESIDENT
TUDJMAN HAD DECIDED THAT SECTOR WEST WOULD BECOME AN
EXAMPLE OF HOW TERRITORY COULD BE SUCCESSFULLY
REINTEGRATED AND THAT COEXISTENCE OF SERB AND CROAT WAS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
POSSIBLE, WITH FULL CIVIL RIGHTS FOR ALL CROATIAN SERBS.
END SUMMARY.
3. FOREIGN MINISTER GRANIC MET WITH THE ENTIRE ZAGREB
DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MAY 3 AT 1600. HE SAID THAT THE GOC
HAD ACHIEVED ITS OBJECTIVES IN SECTOR WEST, WHICH WERE: 1)
TO REOPEN THE HIGHWAY UNDER CONDITIONS PERMITTING ITS SAFE
OPERATION, AND 2) SEVER THE ROUTE BY WHICH THE BOSNIAN
SERBS COULD OFFER SUPPORT TO THE "RSK." THE BOSNIAN SERBS
HAD ATTEMPTED "UNSUCCESSFULLY" TO OFFER SUPPORT TO THE
KRAJINA SERBS ON TWO OCCASIONS (NFI).
4. GRANIC STRESSED THAT THE CROATIANS HAD ACTED TO AVOID
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES; THE TOWN OF OKUCANI WAS ISOLATED, BUT
IN A WAY WHICH PERMITTED THOSE IN THE POPULATION WHO
WANTED TO LEAVE A WAY OUT. THE SERBS WERE CLAIMING THAT
5000 CIVILIANS HAD FLED THE SECTOR DURING THE ATTACK; THE
GOC BELIEVED THE NUMBER TO BE CLOSER TO UNHCR'S ESTIMATE
OF 2500 PEOPLE. THE ONLY PIECE OF TERRITORY WHICH THE GOC
DID NOT YET CONTROL WAS A POCKET OF TERRITORY NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY, BETWEEN OKUCANI AND PAKRAC. THE SERBS SAID IT
CONTAINED 600 SOLDIERS AND 3000 CIVILIANS, BUT THE GOC
COULD NOT CONFIRM THOSE NUMBERS. AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN
REACHED BY DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC ON MAY 2 THAT
THOSE AMONG THAT GROUP WHO WISHED TO LEAVE FOR BOSNIAN
SERB HELD TERRITORY COULD DO SO UNDER UN AUSPICES. THE
GOC HAD PROMISED TO ALL WHO CHOOSE TO STAY THAT THEY WOULD
HAVE FULL CIVIL RIGHTS AND THEIR WOULD BE A COMPLETE
AMNESTY FOR ALL WHO TURNED IN THEIR ARMS, EXCEPT FOR THOSE
GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
-------------- --------------
CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT REACHED AT 1630 MAY 3
-------------- --------------
5. SHORTLY INTO THE MEETING, GRANIC WAS CALLED AWAY FOR A
PHONE CALL WITH GOC PRESIDENTIAL CHIEF OF STAFF HRVOJE
SARINIC. GRANIC RETURNED TO REPORT THAT SARINIC HAD
REACHED A "CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES" WITH THE KRAJINA
SERBS, WITH THE MEDIATION OF UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE
AKASHI. HE THEN PASSED AROUND A COPY OF THE FOUR-
PARAGRAPH AGREEMENT (COPY FAXED TO EUR/SCE). THE
AGREEMENT STATED THAT "THERE WILL BE A TOTAL CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES IN SECTOR WEST (WESTERN SLAVONIA) AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 1700 HOURS 3 MAY 1995" AND SAID ALL WHO
WISH TO LEAVE SECTOR WEST COULD DO SO UNDER UN
"SURVEILLANCE." GRANIC SAID THAT SARINIC HAD AGREED
TO
THE TERMS FROM THE CROATIAN SIDE. HE WAS UNSURE WHO HAD
AGREED FROM THE KRAJINA SERB SIDE. GRANIC NOTED THAT THE
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ7050
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7050
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W
-------------- C1D7F4 031854Z /38
O 031949Z MAY 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5643
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY BAKU
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
USMISSION GENEVA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
GOC HAD BEEN IN CONTACT WITH BELGRADE ON MAY 3 "AT THE
HIGHEST LEVELS" BOTH DIRECTLY AND VIA THE UN. THE GOC
BELIEVED THAT BELGRADE HAD WEIGHED IN WITH KNIN IN FAVOR
OF THE CEASEFIRE.
6. GRANIC EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT WOULD MEAN THE END TO THE ROCKET
ATTACKS ON ZAGREB, ALTHOUGH HE NOTED THAT THERE WERE "NO
GUARANTEES."
7. COMMENT: WHEN WE CHECKED WITH THE UN CIVIL AFFAIRS
COORDINATOR IN KNIN, WE WERE TOLD THE CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT HAD BEEN NEGOTIATED ON THE SERB SIDE
BY "PRIME MINISTER" MIKELIC; MARTIC'S CHIEF OF STAFF,
ILIJA PRIJIC; AND MILITARY "CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR. THE
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SERBS FROM THE PAKRAC POCKET WAS
SCHEDULED TO OCCUR AT 0900 HOURS LOCAL ON MAY 4. MIKELIC,
PRIJIC AND LONCAR HAD ALSO SIGNED A TEXT OF A CEASEFIRE
AGREEMENT WHICH HAD FOUR ESSENTIAL POINTS: 1) BOTH SIDES
WOULD "WITHDRAW" TO THE LINES AS BEFORE MAY 1; 20 THE UN
ALONE WOULD CONTROL THE HIGHWAY UNDER A SPECIAL REGIME; 3)
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
BOTH SIDES WOULD RESPECT THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND
SAFETY OF UN PERSONNEL; 4) FURTHER CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE
HELD. GRANIC MADE NO MENTION OF ANY CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
WITH THESE TERMS, AND WE CANNOT IMAGINE THE GOC AGREEING
TO A "WITHDRAWAL" WHICH WOULD SIMPLY RESTORE THE STATUS
QUO ANTE. END COMMENT.
-------------- --------------
NO CROATIAN RETALIATION FOR MISSILE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB
-------------- --------------
8. GRANIC SAID THAT THE GOC HAD MADE THE DECISION, DESPITE
"LOTS OF PUBLIC PRESSURE," NOT TO RESPOND TO THE MISSILE
ATTACKS OF MAY 2 OR MAY 3. GRANIC GAVE DETAILS, AS
CURRENTLY KNOWN, ON THE ATTACKS. ON MAY 2, SIX ROCKETS
WERE FIRED AT ZAGREB, RESULTING IN SIX DEATHS AND 143
INJURED (ONE OF THE INJURED WAS LIKELY TO DIE). ON MAY 3,
THERE WERE NINE ROCKETS (SIX IN THE CITY CENTER AND THREE
IN THE WIDER AREA). ONE POLICEMAN HAD DIED WHILE
DISARMING AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE AND TWO CIVILIANS WHO WERE
INJURED IN THE ATTACKS WERE EXPECTED TO DIE FROM THEIR
WOUNDS. 41 OTHER WERE CONFIRMED AS INJURED, AMONG THE
SERIOUSLY INJURED WAS THE TWENTY-ONE YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OF
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC (GRANIC NOTED HIS OWN
DAUGHTER HAD BEEN AT THE HIGH SCHOOL HIT IN YESTERDAY'S
ATTACK). GRANIC STRESSED THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN EASY FOR
THE GOC TO SHOW RESTRAINT IN RESPONDING TO THE MISSILE
ATTACKS. IN THIS REGARD, GRANIC NOTED THAT CROATIA'S
CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU HAD BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR
IN REENFORCING CROATIA'S RESTRAINT.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
-------------- -
FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE RESPONSE
-------------- -
9. IF THERE WERE FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS, HOWEVER, GRANIC
SAID THE GOC WOULD HAVE TO TAKE ACTION "TO PROTECT
OURSELVES FROM THIS PARTICULAR KIND OF ATTACK." BUT HE
STRESSED THAT THE GOC WOULD IN NO CIRCUMSTANCES TARGET
CIVILIANS IN ANY ATTACK. GRANIC ALSO SAID THAT THE GOC
WOULD BE SUPPLYING THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL WITH INFORMATION
SHOWING THAT THE CLUSTER BOMB ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS
HAD BEEN ORDERED BY "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC AND AGREED TO
BY "RSK" COMMANDER CELEKETIC. "RSK CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR
WAS ALSO IMPLICATED. HE INDICATED THAT CROATIAN COURTS
WOULD ALSO PURSUE CHARGES AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE.
-
10. GRANIC ALSO INDICATED THAT THE GOC HAD MANY REPORTS OF
INTERNAL CONFLICTS AMONG THE KRAJINA SERBS, BOTH IN KNIN
AND AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. THERE WERE REPORTS OF CIVILIANS
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ7051
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7051
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W
-------------- C1D7FA 031854Z /38
O 031949Z MAY 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5644
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY BAKU
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
USMISSION GENEVA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
TRYING TO FLEE THE UNPAS BEING BLOCKED BY SERB POLICE.
THESE SPLITS HAD BEEN AGGRAVATED BY EVENTS SINCE MAY 1.
MARTIC HAD BEEN TRYING TO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION TO
SECURE HIS POSITION AND TO BRING THE VIOLENCE TO A LEVEL
WHERE BELGRADE WOULD BE FORCED TO RESPOND IN SUPPORT OF
THE "RSK."
-------------- --------------
SECTOR WEST TO BE AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESSFUL REINT
EGRATION
-------------- --------------
11. GRANIC GAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE GOC HAD ANY PLANS
TO RETURN TO THE LINES OF BEFORE MAY 1. INSTEAD, HE
STRESSED TUDJMAN'S DECISION TO "MAKE WESTERN SLAVONIA AN
EXAMPLE OF HOW SERB AND CROAT CAN COEXIST." THE GOC'S
INTENT WAS TO RESTORE LIFE TO NORMAL IN SECTOR AS QUICKLY
AS POSSIBLE, AND TO DO IT EXCLUSIVELY WITH CIVIL
AUTHORITIES. TUDJMAN WOULD BE MAKING A SPEECH TO THE
NATION, EITHER THE EVENING OF MAY 3, OR AT THE LATEST ON
MAY 4. IT WILL BE A SPEECH FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF
CROATIA, BUT "ESPECIALLY FOR THE CROATIAN SERBS."
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z
GALBRAITH
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
REF: ZAGREB 175 AND PREVIOUS
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
2. FONMIN GRANIC DETAILED THE SUCCESS OF THE CROATIAN
FORCES TO THE DIP CORPS ON MAY 3. HE ANNOUNCED A
"CEASEFIRE" HAD BEEN AGREED WITH THE SERBS, WHICH HE HOPED
WOULD END THE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB. (NOTE: OUR FOLLOW UP
CONTACTS WITH THE UN INDICATE THAT GRANIC MAY HAVE SPOKEN
TOO SOON IN ANNOUNCING A CEASEFIRE, IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY
AN AGREEMENT FOR THE EVACUATION OF SERBS FROM A POCKET IN
THE NORTH OF THE SECTOR.) THE GOC HAD DECIDED NOT TO
RETALIATE FOR THE MISSILE ATTACKS OF MAY 2 AND 3, BUT
FURTHER ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE A RESPONSE. PRESIDENT
TUDJMAN HAD DECIDED THAT SECTOR WEST WOULD BECOME AN
EXAMPLE OF HOW TERRITORY COULD BE SUCCESSFULLY
REINTEGRATED AND THAT COEXISTENCE OF SERB AND CROAT WAS
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
POSSIBLE, WITH FULL CIVIL RIGHTS FOR ALL CROATIAN SERBS.
END SUMMARY.
3. FOREIGN MINISTER GRANIC MET WITH THE ENTIRE ZAGREB
DIPLOMATIC CORPS ON MAY 3 AT 1600. HE SAID THAT THE GOC
HAD ACHIEVED ITS OBJECTIVES IN SECTOR WEST, WHICH WERE: 1)
TO REOPEN THE HIGHWAY UNDER CONDITIONS PERMITTING ITS SAFE
OPERATION, AND 2) SEVER THE ROUTE BY WHICH THE BOSNIAN
SERBS COULD OFFER SUPPORT TO THE "RSK." THE BOSNIAN SERBS
HAD ATTEMPTED "UNSUCCESSFULLY" TO OFFER SUPPORT TO THE
KRAJINA SERBS ON TWO OCCASIONS (NFI).
4. GRANIC STRESSED THAT THE CROATIANS HAD ACTED TO AVOID
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES; THE TOWN OF OKUCANI WAS ISOLATED, BUT
IN A WAY WHICH PERMITTED THOSE IN THE POPULATION WHO
WANTED TO LEAVE A WAY OUT. THE SERBS WERE CLAIMING THAT
5000 CIVILIANS HAD FLED THE SECTOR DURING THE ATTACK; THE
GOC BELIEVED THE NUMBER TO BE CLOSER TO UNHCR'S ESTIMATE
OF 2500 PEOPLE. THE ONLY PIECE OF TERRITORY WHICH THE GOC
DID NOT YET CONTROL WAS A POCKET OF TERRITORY NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY, BETWEEN OKUCANI AND PAKRAC. THE SERBS SAID IT
CONTAINED 600 SOLDIERS AND 3000 CIVILIANS, BUT THE GOC
COULD NOT CONFIRM THOSE NUMBERS. AN AGREEMENT HAD BEEN
REACHED BY DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC ON MAY 2 THAT
THOSE AMONG THAT GROUP WHO WISHED TO LEAVE FOR BOSNIAN
SERB HELD TERRITORY COULD DO SO UNDER UN AUSPICES. THE
GOC HAD PROMISED TO ALL WHO CHOOSE TO STAY THAT THEY WOULD
HAVE FULL CIVIL RIGHTS AND THEIR WOULD BE A COMPLETE
AMNESTY FOR ALL WHO TURNED IN THEIR ARMS, EXCEPT FOR THOSE
GUILTY OF WAR CRIMES.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 01 OF 03 031853Z
-------------- --------------
CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT REACHED AT 1630 MAY 3
-------------- --------------
5. SHORTLY INTO THE MEETING, GRANIC WAS CALLED AWAY FOR A
PHONE CALL WITH GOC PRESIDENTIAL CHIEF OF STAFF HRVOJE
SARINIC. GRANIC RETURNED TO REPORT THAT SARINIC HAD
REACHED A "CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES" WITH THE KRAJINA
SERBS, WITH THE MEDIATION OF UN SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE
AKASHI. HE THEN PASSED AROUND A COPY OF THE FOUR-
PARAGRAPH AGREEMENT (COPY FAXED TO EUR/SCE). THE
AGREEMENT STATED THAT "THERE WILL BE A TOTAL CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES IN SECTOR WEST (WESTERN SLAVONIA) AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 1700 HOURS 3 MAY 1995" AND SAID ALL WHO
WISH TO LEAVE SECTOR WEST COULD DO SO UNDER UN
"SURVEILLANCE." GRANIC SAID THAT SARINIC HAD AGREED
TO
THE TERMS FROM THE CROATIAN SIDE. HE WAS UNSURE WHO HAD
AGREED FROM THE KRAJINA SERB SIDE. GRANIC NOTED THAT THE
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ7050
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7050
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W
-------------- C1D7F4 031854Z /38
O 031949Z MAY 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5643
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY BAKU
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
USMISSION GENEVA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
GOC HAD BEEN IN CONTACT WITH BELGRADE ON MAY 3 "AT THE
HIGHEST LEVELS" BOTH DIRECTLY AND VIA THE UN. THE GOC
BELIEVED THAT BELGRADE HAD WEIGHED IN WITH KNIN IN FAVOR
OF THE CEASEFIRE.
6. GRANIC EXPRESSED THE HOPE THAT THE CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT WOULD MEAN THE END TO THE ROCKET
ATTACKS ON ZAGREB, ALTHOUGH HE NOTED THAT THERE WERE "NO
GUARANTEES."
7. COMMENT: WHEN WE CHECKED WITH THE UN CIVIL AFFAIRS
COORDINATOR IN KNIN, WE WERE TOLD THE CESSATION OF
HOSTILITIES AGREEMENT HAD BEEN NEGOTIATED ON THE SERB SIDE
BY "PRIME MINISTER" MIKELIC; MARTIC'S CHIEF OF STAFF,
ILIJA PRIJIC; AND MILITARY "CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR. THE
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SERBS FROM THE PAKRAC POCKET WAS
SCHEDULED TO OCCUR AT 0900 HOURS LOCAL ON MAY 4. MIKELIC,
PRIJIC AND LONCAR HAD ALSO SIGNED A TEXT OF A CEASEFIRE
AGREEMENT WHICH HAD FOUR ESSENTIAL POINTS: 1) BOTH SIDES
WOULD "WITHDRAW" TO THE LINES AS BEFORE MAY 1; 20 THE UN
ALONE WOULD CONTROL THE HIGHWAY UNDER A SPECIAL REGIME; 3)
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
BOTH SIDES WOULD RESPECT THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT AND
SAFETY OF UN PERSONNEL; 4) FURTHER CONSULTATIONS WOULD BE
HELD. GRANIC MADE NO MENTION OF ANY CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT
WITH THESE TERMS, AND WE CANNOT IMAGINE THE GOC AGREEING
TO A "WITHDRAWAL" WHICH WOULD SIMPLY RESTORE THE STATUS
QUO ANTE. END COMMENT.
-------------- --------------
NO CROATIAN RETALIATION FOR MISSILE ATTACKS ON ZAGREB
-------------- --------------
8. GRANIC SAID THAT THE GOC HAD MADE THE DECISION, DESPITE
"LOTS OF PUBLIC PRESSURE," NOT TO RESPOND TO THE MISSILE
ATTACKS OF MAY 2 OR MAY 3. GRANIC GAVE DETAILS, AS
CURRENTLY KNOWN, ON THE ATTACKS. ON MAY 2, SIX ROCKETS
WERE FIRED AT ZAGREB, RESULTING IN SIX DEATHS AND 143
INJURED (ONE OF THE INJURED WAS LIKELY TO DIE). ON MAY 3,
THERE WERE NINE ROCKETS (SIX IN THE CITY CENTER AND THREE
IN THE WIDER AREA). ONE POLICEMAN HAD DIED WHILE
DISARMING AN EXPLOSIVE DEVICE AND TWO CIVILIANS WHO WERE
INJURED IN THE ATTACKS WERE EXPECTED TO DIE FROM THEIR
WOUNDS. 41 OTHER WERE CONFIRMED AS INJURED, AMONG THE
SERIOUSLY INJURED WAS THE TWENTY-ONE YEAR OLD DAUGHTER OF
DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER KOSTOVIC (GRANIC NOTED HIS OWN
DAUGHTER HAD BEEN AT THE HIGH SCHOOL HIT IN YESTERDAY'S
ATTACK). GRANIC STRESSED THAT IT HAD NOT BEEN EASY FOR
THE GOC TO SHOW RESTRAINT IN RESPONDING TO THE MISSILE
ATTACKS. IN THIS REGARD, GRANIC NOTED THAT CROATIA'S
CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU HAD BEEN A MAJOR FACTOR
IN REENFORCING CROATIA'S RESTRAINT.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01763 02 OF 03 031854Z
-------------- -
FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS WOULD REQUIRE RESPONSE
-------------- -
9. IF THERE WERE FURTHER MISSILE ATTACKS, HOWEVER, GRANIC
SAID THE GOC WOULD HAVE TO TAKE ACTION "TO PROTECT
OURSELVES FROM THIS PARTICULAR KIND OF ATTACK." BUT HE
STRESSED THAT THE GOC WOULD IN NO CIRCUMSTANCES TARGET
CIVILIANS IN ANY ATTACK. GRANIC ALSO SAID THAT THE GOC
WOULD BE SUPPLYING THE HAGUE TRIBUNAL WITH INFORMATION
SHOWING THAT THE CLUSTER BOMB ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS
HAD BEEN ORDERED BY "RSK PRESIDENT" MARTIC AND AGREED TO
BY "RSK" COMMANDER CELEKETIC. "RSK CHIEF OF STAFF" LONCAR
WAS ALSO IMPLICATED. HE INDICATED THAT CROATIAN COURTS
WOULD ALSO PURSUE CHARGES AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE.
-
10. GRANIC ALSO INDICATED THAT THE GOC HAD MANY REPORTS OF
INTERNAL CONFLICTS AMONG THE KRAJINA SERBS, BOTH IN KNIN
AND AT THE LOCAL LEVEL. THERE WERE REPORTS OF CIVILIANS
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNNPTQ7051
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ7051
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01763 03 OF 03 031854Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AID-00 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 OASY-00 TEDE-00 INR-00
IO-10 L-01 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PM-00 P-01
SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 SNIS-00 NISC-01 PMB-00 /017W
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O 031949Z MAY 95
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5644
INFO USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL MUNICH
USLO SKOPJE
AMEMBASSY BAKU
AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
HQ JTF PP NAPLES IT//CA/POLAD//
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ4/ECJ5/ECPOLAD//
NATO EU COLLECTIVE
JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-5PMA/J21//
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ISP//
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
DIA WASHDC
USMISSION GENEVA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 ZAGREB 001763
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR A/S HOLBROOKE
VIENNA ALSO FOR BOSNIA
CONFIDENTIAL
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BAKU FOR DCM FINN
BRUSSELS ALSO FOR USEU
USVIENNA ALSO FOR USDEL CSCE
E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/2/2010
TAGS:
SUBJECT: UPDATE 15 ON SECTOR WEST: GRANIC ANNOUNCES
CEASEFIRE; SAYS GOC WON'T RETALIATE FOR MAY 3
MISSILE ATTACKS EITHER
TRYING TO FLEE THE UNPAS BEING BLOCKED BY SERB POLICE.
THESE SPLITS HAD BEEN AGGRAVATED BY EVENTS SINCE MAY 1.
MARTIC HAD BEEN TRYING TO AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION TO
SECURE HIS POSITION AND TO BRING THE VIOLENCE TO A LEVEL
WHERE BELGRADE WOULD BE FORCED TO RESPOND IN SUPPORT OF
THE "RSK."
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SECTOR WEST TO BE AN EXAMPLE OF SUCCESSFUL REINT
EGRATION
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11. GRANIC GAVE NO INDICATION THAT THE GOC HAD ANY PLANS
TO RETURN TO THE LINES OF BEFORE MAY 1. INSTEAD, HE
STRESSED TUDJMAN'S DECISION TO "MAKE WESTERN SLAVONIA AN
EXAMPLE OF HOW SERB AND CROAT CAN COEXIST." THE GOC'S
INTENT WAS TO RESTORE LIFE TO NORMAL IN SECTOR AS QUICKLY
AS POSSIBLE, AND TO DO IT EXCLUSIVELY WITH CIVIL
AUTHORITIES. TUDJMAN WOULD BE MAKING A SPEECH TO THE
NATION, EITHER THE EVENING OF MAY 3, OR AT THE LATEST ON
MAY 4. IT WILL BE A SPEECH FOR THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF
CROATIA, BUT "ESPECIALLY FOR THE CROATIAN SERBS."
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