RABIN ASSASSINATION: NEXT STEPS IN ISRAEL'S POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 017504


DEPARTMENT FOR SECRETARY, NEA AND SMEC
WHITE HOUSE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR AND PARRIS
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS NATO COLLECTIVE, IMMEDIATE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/05
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS
SUBJECT: RABIN ASSASSINATION: NEXT STEPS IN ISRAEL'S POLITICAL
SUCCESSION


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. CLASSIFIED BY SECTION 1.5 (B)
AND (D). NIACT PRECEDENCE BECAUSE OF GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN
ISRAEL.


2. SUMMARY: ACTING PRIME MINISTER SHIMON PERES WILL NEED TO
CONSIDER THREE POSSIBLE OPTIONS FOLLOWING THE NOVEMBER 5 FUNERAL
FOR ASSASSINATED PRIME MINISTER YITZHAK RABIN. PERES COULD ASK
PRESIDENT WEIZMAN TO RECOGNIZE THE EXISTING RULING COALITION;
FORM A NEW RULING COALITION; OR DISSOLVE THE KNESSET AND CALL
EARLY ELECTIONS. NEW ELECTIONS WOULD TAKE PLACE 90 DAYS AFTER
THE 13TH KNESSET IS DISSOLVED. POLITICAL AND PEACE PROCESS
FACTORS WILL OBVIOUSLY INFLUENCE ANY DECISION CONCERNING IF AND
WHEN NEW ELECTIONS ARE HELD. OPPOSITION LEADER BINYAMIN
NETANYAHU TOLD US LAST NIGHT THAT LIKUD AND THE RIGHT WILL BE
DIRECTLY BLAMED FOR THE VIOLENCE LEADING TO THE ASSASSINATION OF
RABIN. HE CALLED THE DEATH OF RABIN "A DISASTER FOR THE JEWISH
PEOPLE, A DISASTER FOR ISRAEL AND A DISASTER FOR THE RIGHT WHICH
WILL BE DECIMATED IF ELECTIONS ARE CALLED SOON."
END SUMMARY.


3. THE NOVEMBER 4 ASSASSINATION OF PRIME MINISTER YITZHAK RABIN
HAS NO PRECEDENT IN ISRAEL'S FORTY-SEVEN YEAR HISTORY. LACKING A
CONSTITUTION, ISRAEL'S BASIC LAW PROVIDES THAT A TEMPORARY ACTING
PRIME MINISTER BE NAMED BY THE ISRAELI CABINET. IN EMERGENCY
SESSION LAST NIGHT, THE CABINET NAMED FOREIGN MINISTER SHIMON
PERES ACTING PRIME MINISTER, A DECISION TAKEN WITH THE
CONCURRENCE OF PRESIDENT EZER WEIZMAN.


4. FOLLOWING A SEVEN-DAY MOURNING PERIOD (WHICH WILL RUN FROM THE
DAY OF BURIAL NOVEMBER 6 TO SUNDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 12),THE
ACTING PRIME MINISTER HAS THREE BASIC OPTIONS WITH RESPECT TO
SUCCESSION: 1) CONTINUE WITH THE EXISTING RULING COALITION WITH
THE APPROVAL OF THE PRESIDENT, 2) FORM A NEW COALITION WITH THE
APPROVAL OF THE PRESIDENT, OR 3) CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS.


5. WE EXPECT ACTING PRIME MINISTER PERES TO CONSIDER HIS OPTIONS
AFTER THE NOVEMBER 6 FUNERAL FOR RABIN. WE HAVE HEARD
PRELIMINARY REACTIONS FROM CABINET MEMBERS AND LABOR PARTY
LEADERS THAT PERES MAY WANT TO CALL FOR EARLY ELECTIONS. ALREADY
THE LABOR PARTY HAS NAMED NAVA ARAD, A MEMBER OF THE 12TH KNESSET
AND AN ADVISOR TO THE PRIME MINISTER ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS, TO
REPLACE RABIN'S POSITION ON THE LABOR LIST AND RETAIN A PLURALITY
OF 44 SEATS IN THE KNESSET AND A WORKING MAJORITY OF 63. WE HAVE
LEARNED FROM THE PRIME MINISTER'S MILITARY ADVISOR, GENERAL DANNY
YATOM, THAT THE ACTING PRIME MINISTER WILL TAKE OVER THE DEFENSE
PORTFOLIO, SINCE PERES IS BARRED FROM NAMING NEW MINISTERS UNTIL
HE BECOMES PRIME MINISTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN THE NEAR
FUTURE EHUD BARAK, INTERIOR MINISTER AND FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF,
COULD BE NAMED DEFENSE MINISTER, A MOVE THAT MOST OF THE ISRAELI
PRESS HAS DISCUSSED IN TODAY'S PAPERS. BARAK IS CURRENTLY RACING
BACK TO ISRAEL FROM A U.S. VISIT TO ATTEND THE FUNERAL OF RABIN
TOMORROW.


6. IF PERES DECIDES TO CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS, HE WOULD HAVE TO
DISSOLVE THE CURRENT 13TH SESSION OF THE KNESSET AND BEGIN A 90-
DAY ELECTION PERIOD DURING WHICH A CAMPAIGN WOULD BE CONDUCTED.
THE NEW ELECTION LAW PERMITTING THE DIRECT ELECTION OF THE PRIME
MINISTER AND SEPARATE ELECTION OF KNESSET FACTIONS WILL TAKE
EFFECT. SEVERAL TECHNICAL ISSUES STILL REMAIN UNRESOLVED AND
WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BEFORE AN ELECTION COULD BE HELD. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE ISSUE OF A NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE NEEDS TO BE RESOLVED,
SINCE LABOR AND LIKUD HAVE ALREADY AGREED THAT A SIMPLE KNESSET
MAJORITY WOULD BE INADEQUATE TO REMOVE A DIRECTLY-ELECTED PRIME
MINISTER.


7. POLITICAL AND PEACE PROCESS FACTORS NO DOUBT WILL GREATLY
INFLUENCE A DECISION BY ACTING PRIME MINISTER PERES ON WHETHER
AND WHEN TO CALL FOR NEW ELECTIONS. SINCE OSLO II IS A
COMMITMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT OF ISRAEL, LABOR AND LIKUD SOURCES
TOLD US THAT REDEPLOYMENT WOULD CONTINUE DURING AN ELECTION
PERIOD. LIKUD LEADER BINYAMIN NETANYAHU TOLD POLOFF LAST NIGHT
THAT THE ASSASSINATION OF RABIN IS A "DISASTER FOR THE JEWISH
PEOPLE, A DISASTER OF ISRAEL AND A DISASTER FOR THE RIGHT WHICH
WILL BE DECIMATED IF ELECTIONS ARE CALLED SOON." OTHER LIKUD
SOURCES REFERRED IN A PANIC TO THE 1930'S MURDER OF HAIM
ARLOSOROFF FOR WHICH THE ENTIRE REVISIONIST MOVEMENT WAS BLAMED
AND FEARED THE LEFT WILL DO THE SAME AGAIN WITH LIKUD AND THE
RIGHT IN 1995.

INDYK


NOTE: NOT PASSED TO ABOVE ADDRESSEE(S)