HAMAS JAILBREAK: YOU CAN HIDE, BUT YOU CAN'T RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 016873


DEPT FOR SMEC AND NEA/IAI

E.O. 12356: DECL: 10/23/05
TAGS: PTER PGOV PHUM PREL KPAL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: HAMAS JAILBREAK: YOU CAN HIDE, BUT YOU CAN'T RUN


1. (U) THREE HAMAS ACTIVISTS ESCAPED FROM THE MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE WING OF GAZA CENTRAL PRISON OCTOBER 22. TWO OF
THEM, YUSEF MALAHI AND OSAMA ABU TAHA, HAD BEEN IMPLICATED IN
LETHAL ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAELIS AND HAD BEEN SENTENCED TO 12 YEAR
SENTENCES BY THE PALESTINIAN SECURITY COURT. THE THIRD, IMAD
AQIL, HAD BEEN ARRESTED WHILE ATTEMPTING TO CARRY OUT A SUICIDE
ATTACK AGAINST AN ISRAELI SETTLEMENT IN GAZA. AQIL TURNED
HIMSELF INTO POLICE A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AFTER THE ESCAPE.

NOWHERE TO RUN
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2. (C) THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY (PA) ATTORNEY GENERAL KHALID AL
QIDRAH TOLD POLOFF OCTOBER 23, (EVEN BEFORE AQIL TURNED HIMSELF
IN) THAT A SEARCH AND INVESTIGATION WERE UNDERWAY AND HE DID NOT
EXPECT THE TWO REMAINING ESCAPEES TO REMAIN AT LARGE FOR LONG.
"GAZA IS SMALL AND THEY ARE WELL-KNOWN." GAZA REUTERS CHIEF
TAHER SHRITEH, WHO MAINTAINS CONTACTS WITH HAMAS MEMBERS,
DISAGREED WITH AL QIDRAH ABOUT WHETHER ABU TAHA AND MALAHI COULD
REMAIN AT LARGE FOR LONG. CITING WANTED PALESTINIANS' ABILITY TO
AVOID CAPTURE UNDER ISRAELI RULE, HE ADDED THAT EVEN TRAPPED IN
GAZA, UNLESS THE TWO TURNED THEMSELVES IN, THE SEARCH COULD BE
LENGTHY. BOTH AL QIDRAH AND SHRITEH SAID THEY BELIEVED THAT SOME
OF THE GUARDS WERE PROBABLY SYMPATHETIC TO HAMAS AND HELPED IN
THE ESCAPE. LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED THAT FIVE PA MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ARRESTED IN CONNECTION TO THE
ESCAPE.

GOI KEEPS AN OPEN MIND, BUT WARY OF PA/HAMAS INTENTIONS
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3. (C) ARAB AFFAIRS ADVISOR SHALOM HARARI (PROTECT) TOLD POLOFF
THAT THE GOI HAD NO "PROOF" THAT THERE WAS PA COLLUSION IN THE
ESCAPE, OR EVEN THAT SENIOR OFFICIALS IN HAMAS SUPPORTED THE
ESCAPE. HE SAID THE GOI WOULD WATCH TO SEE HOW THE INCIDENT
PLAYED OUT, BUT THE FACT WAS THAT SUCH THINGS HAPPEN. HE
RECALLED A 1987 PRISON BREAK BY FOUR ISLAMIC JIHAD TERRORISTS WHO
ESCAPED FROM AN ISRAELI PRISON INSIDE GAZA. "THEY JUMPED OVER
TWO FENCES AFTER GETTING OUT OF THE PRISON! IT HAPPENS."


4. (C) ACCORDING TO HARARI, THE GOI REMAINS SUSPICIOUS BECAUSE
ARAFAT IS AT SUCH A DELICATE POINT IN HIS NEGOTIATIONS. THE
CLOSURE ON GAZA WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT BECAUSE ARAFAT HAS NOT
REACHED FINAL AGREEMENT WITH HAMAS. "THEY HAVE NOT DECIDED TO
END ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAELIS." ARAFAT IS MAINTAINING AN
"EXTREMELY COMPLEX BALANCING ACT" AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HIM TO MISCALCULATE. ON THE ONE HAND HE HAS THE GOI, THE USG AND
PALESTINIAN PUBLIC OPINION WHICH NO LONGER SUPPORTS THE SUICIDE
ATTACKS, AND ON THE OTHER THE STRATEGIC NEGOTIATIONS WITH HAMAS.
FOR THESE NEGOTIATIONS HE MUST LOOSEN AS WELL AS TIGHTEN THE
NOOSE AROUND HAMAS. A MISTAKE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NOOSE COULD
LET AN ATTACK SLIP THROUGH.

COMMENT
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5. (C) HARARI WAS SURPRISINGLY CHARITABLE IN DESCRIBING ARAFAT'S
NEED TO STRIKE A BALANCE BETWEEN TOUGHNESS AND FLEXIBILITY IN HIS
DEALINGS WITH HAMAS. THE DOMINANT AND AUTHORITATIVE ISRAELI
POSITION AT THIS TIME, VOICED BY RABIN AND OTHERS IN THE POLICY
LOOP, IS THAT ARAFAT'S SECURITY EFFORTS HAVE SLACKENED IN RECENT
WEEKS AND THAT HE MUST DO BETTER IF HE WANTS THE CLOSURE LIFTED.


INDYK