Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95STATE51417
1995-03-02 03:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Secretary of State
Cable title:
INR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT - SOUTH AFRICA:
how-toR 020325Z MAR 95 FM SECSTATE WASHDC TO AMEMBASSY PRETORIA INFO AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN AMCONSUL DURBAN AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG AMEMBASSY LILONGWE AMEMBASSY LUSAKA AMEMBASSY MAPUTO AMEMBASSY WINDHOEK AMEMBASSY HARARE AMEMBASSY LONDON USMISSION USUN NEW YORK USMISSION USNATO USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE USCENTCOM MCDILL AFB FL USECU STUTTGART FRG USUSETAF VINCENZA ITALY
C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 051417
LONDON FOR YOUNG; USUN NEW YORK FOR GELBER
E.O. 12356:235'. 5E-. OQD"
TAGS: PINR KE PGOV
SUBJECT: INR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT - SOUTH AFRICA:
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI
C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 051417
LONDON FOR YOUNG; USUN NEW YORK FOR GELBER
E.O. 12356:235'. 5E-. OQD"
TAGS: PINR KE PGOV
SUBJECT: INR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT - SOUTH AFRICA:
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. INR'S FEBRUARY 28 ASSESSMENT ENTITLED SOUTH AFRICA:
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI" IS PROVIDED FOR YOUR
INFORMATION AND COMMENT, AS APPROPRIATE.
BEGIN TEXT
3. SUMMARY. PRESIDENT MANDELA'S FEBRUARY 15
ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOULD NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM IN
OFFICE HAS MADE DEPUTY PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI THE
PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER IN SOUTH AFRICA'S NEXT
NATIONAL ELECTIONS, SCHEDULED FOR 1999. GROWING RIFTS
WITHIN THE ANC WILL INCREASINGLY TEST MBEKI'S LEADERSHIP.
4. ONE MAJOR RIFT IS BETWEEN THE CURRENTLY PREVAILING
MODERATES, LED BY MANDELA AND MBEKI, AND PARTY
MILITANTS. BUT AS ANC SUPPORTERS BECOME INCREASING
FRUSTRATED WITH THE SLOW PACE OF REFORM, THE ANC IS
COMING UNDER GROWING PRESSURE TO RADICALIZE ITS
POLICIES, AND THE MILITANT RHETORIC OF A GROUP OF RISING
STARS, INCLUDING WINNIE MANDELA, IS GAINING POPULARITY.
ANOTHER SCHISM LIES BETWEEN THE SUPPORTERS OF MBEKI AND
THOSE OF ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL CYRIL RAMAPHOSA, WHO IS
MBEKI'S STRONGEST COMPETITOR FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S TOP
LEADERSHIP POSITION.
5. THE POPULIST APPEAL. BESIDES WINNIE MANDELA, THE
ANC'S "POPULIST" GROUPING INCLUDES THREE OTHER PARTY
LEADERS WHOSE STATURE IN THE ANC IS NOT ACCURATELY
REFLECTED BY THEIR CURRENT TITLES. THEY ARE PETER
MOKABA, PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON TOURISM CHAIRPERSON;
BANTU HOLOMISA, DEPUTY MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS
AND TOURISM; AND ROCKY MALEBANE-METSING, SPECIAL ADVISER
TO THE NORTHWEST PROVINCE. WITH THEIR OUTSPOKEN
MILITANCY AND ADVOCACY OF RADICAL REDISTRIBUTION, THE
FOUR HAVE ATTRACTED A LARGE FOLLOWING AMONG THE ANC'S
POOREST CONSTITUENCIES--SQUATTERS, RURAL DWELLERS, THE
URBAN UNEMPLOYED, AND MARGINALIZED YOUTH. THEIR APPEAL
IS BROADENING DESPITE THE EMBROILMENT OF EACH IN WIDELY
PUBLICIZED SCANDALS.
6. MRS. MANDELA, THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL OF THE FOUR,
WAS CONVICTED IN 1993 OF KIDNAPPING AND ASSAULT, AND,
ALONG WITH MOKABA AND MALEBANE-METSING, HAS FACED
REPEATED CHARGES OF FINANCIAL MISMANAGEMENT. HOLOMISA'S
DICTATORIAL ADMINISTRATION OF THE FORMER TRANSKEI
HOMELAND HAS COME UNDER CLOSE SCRUTINY. EVEN SO, AT THE
ANC'S NATIONAL CONFERENCE LAST DECEMBER, HOLOMISA,
MOKABA AND MRS. MANDELA WERE NOMINATED FIRST, THIRD AND
FIFTH RESPECTIVELY FOR POSITIONS ON THE PARTY'S NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE. THE ANC'S POPULISTS ARE BUILDING A
POWERFUL BASE OF SUPPORT THAT COULD, ONCE MANDELA STEPS
DOWN, PLACE THEM IN A POSITION TO WIELD SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE WITHIN THE PARTY AND THE GOVERNMENT.
7. AN UNEASY ALLIANCE. MANDELA AND MBEKI CAN ILL
AFFORD TO DISMISS THE POPULISTS' WIDE APPEAL--MRS.
MANDELA ALONE HAS THE SUPPORT OF PERHAPS 40 PERCENT OF
THE ANC'S CONSTITUENTS. FOR HIS PART, MBEKI, WHOSE LONG
YEARS IN EXILE LEFT HIM ISOLATED AND LARGELY UNKNOWN TO
THE BLACK POPULATION, HAS ALLIED HIMSELF TO THE
POPULISTS, DESPITE FUNDAMENTAL IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES,
TO GAIN POPULAR SUPPORT. HIS STRATEGY HAS LARGELY PAID
OFF, AND HE NOW ENJOYS THE WIDE ACCEPTANCE HE NEEDS AS
MANDELA'S HEIR APPARENT. IF HE IS ELECTED PRESIDENT,
MBEKI WILL COME UNDER GREAT PRESSURE FROM THE POPULISTS,
WHOSE RISE IN THE GOVERNMENT MBEKI HAS FACILITATED, TO
APPOINT THEM TO SENIOR CABINET POSTS, IN WHICH THEY WILL
BE EVEN BETTER PLACED TO RADICALIZE ANC POLICIES.
8. RAMAPHOSA STILL STRONG. MBEKI'S ALLIANCES WITH THE
POPULISTS HAVE GIVEN HIM THE EDGE OVER RAMAPHOSA, WHO
BOWED OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR DEPUTY PRESIDENT AT THE
LAST MINUTE, KNOWING THAT A MAJORITY OF ANC NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBERS SUPPORT MBEKI. NONETHELESS,
RAMAPHOSA, WHO RUNS THE PARTY ORGANIZATION AND IS A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY, REMAINS
HIGHLY RESPECTED AMONG THE ANC SENIOR RANKS AND IS
LIKELY TO CHALLENGE MBEKI FOR THE ANC'S PRESIDENTIAL
NOMINATION IN THE NEXT ELECTION.
9. RAMAPHOSA WOULD BE A FORMIDABLE RIVAL: A PROMINENT
LABOR LEADER DURING THE APARTHEID ERA, HE TRADITIONALLY
HAS FAR GREATER SUPPORT THAN MBEKI AMONG GRASSROOTS ANC
SUPPORTERS.
CHRISTOPHER
LONDON FOR YOUNG; USUN NEW YORK FOR GELBER
E.O. 12356:235'. 5E-. OQD"
TAGS: PINR KE PGOV
SUBJECT: INR INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT - SOUTH AFRICA:
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. INR'S FEBRUARY 28 ASSESSMENT ENTITLED SOUTH AFRICA:
CHALLENGES FACING MBEKI" IS PROVIDED FOR YOUR
INFORMATION AND COMMENT, AS APPROPRIATE.
BEGIN TEXT
3. SUMMARY. PRESIDENT MANDELA'S FEBRUARY 15
ANNOUNCEMENT THAT HE WOULD NOT SEEK A SECOND TERM IN
OFFICE HAS MADE DEPUTY PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI THE
PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER IN SOUTH AFRICA'S NEXT
NATIONAL ELECTIONS, SCHEDULED FOR 1999. GROWING RIFTS
WITHIN THE ANC WILL INCREASINGLY TEST MBEKI'S LEADERSHIP.
4. ONE MAJOR RIFT IS BETWEEN THE CURRENTLY PREVAILING
MODERATES, LED BY MANDELA AND MBEKI, AND PARTY
MILITANTS. BUT AS ANC SUPPORTERS BECOME INCREASING
FRUSTRATED WITH THE SLOW PACE OF REFORM, THE ANC IS
COMING UNDER GROWING PRESSURE TO RADICALIZE ITS
POLICIES, AND THE MILITANT RHETORIC OF A GROUP OF RISING
STARS, INCLUDING WINNIE MANDELA, IS GAINING POPULARITY.
ANOTHER SCHISM LIES BETWEEN THE SUPPORTERS OF MBEKI AND
THOSE OF ANC SECRETARY-GENERAL CYRIL RAMAPHOSA, WHO IS
MBEKI'S STRONGEST COMPETITOR FOR SOUTH AFRICA'S TOP
LEADERSHIP POSITION.
5. THE POPULIST APPEAL. BESIDES WINNIE MANDELA, THE
ANC'S "POPULIST" GROUPING INCLUDES THREE OTHER PARTY
LEADERS WHOSE STATURE IN THE ANC IS NOT ACCURATELY
REFLECTED BY THEIR CURRENT TITLES. THEY ARE PETER
MOKABA, PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE ON TOURISM CHAIRPERSON;
BANTU HOLOMISA, DEPUTY MINISTER OF ENVIRONMENTAL AFFAIRS
AND TOURISM; AND ROCKY MALEBANE-METSING, SPECIAL ADVISER
TO THE NORTHWEST PROVINCE. WITH THEIR OUTSPOKEN
MILITANCY AND ADVOCACY OF RADICAL REDISTRIBUTION, THE
FOUR HAVE ATTRACTED A LARGE FOLLOWING AMONG THE ANC'S
POOREST CONSTITUENCIES--SQUATTERS, RURAL DWELLERS, THE
URBAN UNEMPLOYED, AND MARGINALIZED YOUTH. THEIR APPEAL
IS BROADENING DESPITE THE EMBROILMENT OF EACH IN WIDELY
PUBLICIZED SCANDALS.
6. MRS. MANDELA, THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL OF THE FOUR,
WAS CONVICTED IN 1993 OF KIDNAPPING AND ASSAULT, AND,
ALONG WITH MOKABA AND MALEBANE-METSING, HAS FACED
REPEATED CHARGES OF FINANCIAL MISMANAGEMENT. HOLOMISA'S
DICTATORIAL ADMINISTRATION OF THE FORMER TRANSKEI
HOMELAND HAS COME UNDER CLOSE SCRUTINY. EVEN SO, AT THE
ANC'S NATIONAL CONFERENCE LAST DECEMBER, HOLOMISA,
MOKABA AND MRS. MANDELA WERE NOMINATED FIRST, THIRD AND
FIFTH RESPECTIVELY FOR POSITIONS ON THE PARTY'S NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE. THE ANC'S POPULISTS ARE BUILDING A
POWERFUL BASE OF SUPPORT THAT COULD, ONCE MANDELA STEPS
DOWN, PLACE THEM IN A POSITION TO WIELD SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE WITHIN THE PARTY AND THE GOVERNMENT.
7. AN UNEASY ALLIANCE. MANDELA AND MBEKI CAN ILL
AFFORD TO DISMISS THE POPULISTS' WIDE APPEAL--MRS.
MANDELA ALONE HAS THE SUPPORT OF PERHAPS 40 PERCENT OF
THE ANC'S CONSTITUENTS. FOR HIS PART, MBEKI, WHOSE LONG
YEARS IN EXILE LEFT HIM ISOLATED AND LARGELY UNKNOWN TO
THE BLACK POPULATION, HAS ALLIED HIMSELF TO THE
POPULISTS, DESPITE FUNDAMENTAL IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES,
TO GAIN POPULAR SUPPORT. HIS STRATEGY HAS LARGELY PAID
OFF, AND HE NOW ENJOYS THE WIDE ACCEPTANCE HE NEEDS AS
MANDELA'S HEIR APPARENT. IF HE IS ELECTED PRESIDENT,
MBEKI WILL COME UNDER GREAT PRESSURE FROM THE POPULISTS,
WHOSE RISE IN THE GOVERNMENT MBEKI HAS FACILITATED, TO
APPOINT THEM TO SENIOR CABINET POSTS, IN WHICH THEY WILL
BE EVEN BETTER PLACED TO RADICALIZE ANC POLICIES.
8. RAMAPHOSA STILL STRONG. MBEKI'S ALLIANCES WITH THE
POPULISTS HAVE GIVEN HIM THE EDGE OVER RAMAPHOSA, WHO
BOWED OUT OF THE RUNNING FOR DEPUTY PRESIDENT AT THE
LAST MINUTE, KNOWING THAT A MAJORITY OF ANC NATIONAL
EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBERS SUPPORT MBEKI. NONETHELESS,
RAMAPHOSA, WHO RUNS THE PARTY ORGANIZATION AND IS A
MAJOR PLAYER IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY, REMAINS
HIGHLY RESPECTED AMONG THE ANC SENIOR RANKS AND IS
LIKELY TO CHALLENGE MBEKI FOR THE ANC'S PRESIDENTIAL
NOMINATION IN THE NEXT ELECTION.
9. RAMAPHOSA WOULD BE A FORMIDABLE RIVAL: A PROMINENT
LABOR LEADER DURING THE APARTHEID ERA, HE TRADITIONALLY
HAS FAR GREATER SUPPORT THAN MBEKI AMONG GRASSROOTS ANC
SUPPORTERS.
CHRISTOPHER