INTSUM: SYRIA - PEACE-PROCESS STAGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 249803

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E.O. 12356: DECL: OCTOBER 20, 2005
TAGS: PINR SY
SUBJECT: INTSUM: SYRIA - PEACE-PROCESS STAGNATION

(TEXT) THE FOLLOWING IS AN INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT THAT
RAN IN THE SECRETARY'S MORNING SUMMARY ON THE DATE
INDICATED. IN THE INTEREST OF PROMOTING WIDER
DISSEMINATION, CERTAIN CLASSIFICATIONS OF INFORMATION
CANNOT BE INCLUDED.



1. BEGIN SUMMARY. SYRIA HAS TOUGHENED ITS PEACE-PROCESS
POSITION SINCE THE SIGNING OF THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN
INTERIM AGREEMENT. ASAD IS PROBABLY NOT CAPABLE OF
MAKING THE GESTURES THAT WOULD BE NECESSARY TO JUMP START
THIS TRACK DURING AN ISRAELI ELECTION YEAR. END SUMMARY.


2. THE SIGNING OF THE INTERIM AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED
SYRIA'S ISOLATION, AND THE AMMAN ECONOMIC SUMMIT, IN
WHICH SYRIA WILL NOT PARTICIPATE, WILL INCREASE IT
ANOTHER STEP. ASAD BELIEVES RABIN WILL EXPLOIT THIS
DEEPENING ISOLATION AND THE UPCOMING ISRAELI ELECTIONS TO
TRY TO WIN CONCESSIONS FROM DAMASCUS. IN RESPONSE, ASAD
AND THE SENIOR SYRIAN LEADERSHIP HAVE DUG IN.


3. IN A LENGTHY OCTOBER 11 INTERVIEW WITH THE EGYPTIAN
DAILY AL-AHRAM, ASAD WAS AT HIS MOST STUBBORN. "NO
MATTER HOW THINGS CHANGE, WE WILL NOT DO ANYTHING WE DO
NOT BELIEVE IN." ISRAEL WAS AT FAULT IN THE CONTROVERSY
OVER THE EARLY-WARNING STATIONS. ISRAELI-MANNED EARLY-
WARNING STATIONS ON THE GOLAN WOULD BE AN INFRINGEMENT ON
SYRIAN SOVEREIGNTY. "MEETING FOR THE SAKE OF MEETING"
BENEFITED ONLY ISRAEL. TECHNICAL EXPERTS HAD NO REASON
TO MEET UNTIL POLITICAL DECISION-MAKERS HAVE MADE A
DECISION.


TONE MORE NEGATIVE


4. FOREIGN MINISTER SHARA HAS USED A SHARPER TONE
RECENTLY, TO PUT PRESSURE ON OTHER ARAB STATES AND THE
PALESTINIANS NOT TO TAKE STEPS SYRIA SAYS WOULD HARM ITS
NEGOTIATING POSITION. HE TOLD THE EGYPTIAN WEEKLY ROSE
AL-YUSUF ON SEPTEMBER 30 THE AMMAN SUMMIT WOULD "GREATLY
HARM" THE SYRIAN AND LEBANESE TRACKS AND THAT "ECONOMIC
COOPERATION BETWEEN ISRAEL AND ANY ARAB COUNTRY WOULD
WEAKEN SYRIAN'S STANCE IN THE ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS."
ARAB STATES, HE ASSERTED, WOULD "FACE DANGERS" IF ISRAEL
SUCCEEDED IN CONCLUDING REGIONAL-COOPERATION AGREEMENTS
IN AMMAN. AT THE UN ON OCTOBER 3 SHARA SAID SYRIA WOULD
"NEITHER SUPPORT NOR SEEK TO HAMPER REGIONAL AGREEMENTS"
BUT THAT "ANY USE OF THESE AGREEMENTS TO HARM THE
NATIONAL AND PAN-ARAB INTEREST AND RIGHTS OF SYRIA WILL
COMPEL US TO RECONSIDER OUR POSITION.


WHAT SYRIA CAN AND CANNOT DO


5. BEYOND SUCH RHETORIC, SYRIA CAN DO LITTLE TO IMPEDE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE JORDANIAN-ISRAELI TREATY OR THE
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN INTERIM AGREEMENT. THE PALESTINIAN
REJECTIONIST GROUPS RESIDING IN DAMASCUS HAVE NEVER BEEN
EFFECTIVE PLAYERS ON THE PALESTINIAN SCENE. ASAD APPEARS
NOT TO DELUDE HIMSELF ON THIS POINT, AND THERE HAVE BEEN
NO SIGNS THAT SYRIA HAS STEPPED UP ITS LIMITED SUPPORT TO
THESE GROUPS.


6. BUT SYRIA CAN PREVENT MOVEMENT ON THE ISRAELI-
LEBANESE TRACK AND SLOW NORMALIZATION BETWEEN ISRAEL AND
THE WIDER ARAB WORLD. OTHER ARAB STATES BELIEVE THE
SYRIAN-ISRAELI TRACK MUST BE SOLVED BEFORE A TRULY NEW
DYNAMIC CAN BE UNLEASHED IN THE AREA. SYRIA PLAYS ON
WIDESPREAD ARAB FEARS OF THE "DANGER" TO THE REGION OF A
STRENGTHENED ISRAEL AND ON ANTI-ISRAELI SENTIMENT
PREVALENT AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION IN MOST ARAB
COUNTRIES TO KEEP ARAB NORMALIZATION WITH ISRAEL AT BAY.
MEANWHILE IT WILL URGE EGYPT TO SUPPORT SYRIA PUBLICLY
AND LOBBY WASHINGTON ON ITS BEHALF.


STEADFAST SYRIA


7. ASAD'S RIGID VIEW OF WHAT IS NEEDED (COMPLIANCE WITH
242 AND 338, I. E., FULL ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL FROM THE
TERRITORY ISRAEL OCCUPIED IN 1967) PRECLUDES HIM FROM
OFFERING THE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY GESTURES - MUCH LESS
SUBSTANTIVE CONCESSIONS - NEEDED TO GET THE BALL ROLLING.
ASAD BELIEVES THAT ANY GESTURE HE MIGHT OFFER, EVEN
PROCEDURAL, IN THE ABSENCE OF CONCRETE ASSURANCES THAT
THE GOLAN WILL BE RETURNED IN FULL WOULD BE A MAJOR AND
UNREQUITED CONCESSION TO ISRAEL. CONSTRAINED FROM ACTION
BY THIS VIEW, HE WAITS FOR THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE THE
FIRST GESTURE AND BROKER THE GRAND DEAL OF FULL
WITHDRAWAL FOR FULL PEACE.


8. WITHOUT A US-BROKERED SETTLEMENT, SYRIA WILL CONTENT
ITSELF WITH PLEDGING ALLEGIANCE TO THE PROCESS AND
REITERATING A POSITION THAT HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
1991 MADRID CONFERENCE: SYRIA WANTS PEACE (ON ITS OWN
TERMS); ISRAEL'S "IMPOSSIBLE DEMANDS11 ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LACK OF PROGRESS; THE UNITED STATES MUST INTERCEDE
WITH ISRAEL IF PEACE IS TO BE ACHIEVED; AND "NO PEACE" IS
BETTER THAN "PEACE WITHOUT HONOR." (DRAFTED OCTOBER 20
BY INR/NESA: CONNY MAYER)


CHRISTOPHER