SOUTH AFRICA: THABO MBEKI, THE MAN WHO WOULD BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 005893

CAPE TOWN ALSO FOR EXECUTIVE OFFICE AND POL
LONDON FOR YOUNG, PARIS FOR MORAN/ROBL

E.O. 12356: DECL: 5/10/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINR KPRP SF
SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA: THABO MBEKI, THE MAN WHO WOULD BE
PRESIDENT


1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT).

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SUMMARY
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2. AFTER A YEAR IN OFFICE DEPUTY PRESIDENT THABO MBEKI'S
IMAGE APPEARS A BIT TARNISHED, THE RESULT OF HIS
QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THE FIRING OF WINNIE MANDELA,
HIS HASTE TO CAST DOUBT ON ALLAN BOESAK'S CULPABILITY ON
CORRUPTION CHARGES, HIS WAFFLING ON THE QUESTION OF
INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION AND HIS ATTACKS ON THE MEDIA.
THOUGH THE MAN WHO WOULD BE PRESIDENT REMAINS UNTOUCHED
BY PERSONAL SCANDAL AND IS UNCHALLENGED IN HIS SENIOR
PARTY AND GOVERNMENT POSITIONS, HIS PRINCIPAL WEAKNESS
SEEMS TO BE THAT HE CANNOT SEE THAT ASSOCIATION WITH
CERTAIN PEOPLE CAN BE DAMAGING TO HIM. WHILE NELSON
MANDELA WOULD PROBABLY LIKE TO SEE MBEKI SUCCEED HIM AS
PRESIDENT OF THE ANC AND SOUTH AFRICA, THE GIFT IS NOT
ENTIRELY HIS TO GIVE. MBEKI STILL HAS THE HURDLE OF THE
ANC'S 1997 NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO OVERCOME. A LOT CAN
HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, AND WE HEAR REPORTS THAT
FORCES ALREADY ARE QUIETLY WORKING TO UNDERMINE HIM.
HOWEVER, WE BELIEVE THE KINGMAKERS OF 1999 COULD BE THE
SEVEN ANC PROVINCIAL PREMIERS. END SUMMARY.

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THE RUNNER STUMBLES
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3. MBEKI HAS GONE THROUGH A BAD PATCH OF PUBLICITY OF
LATE. FIRST, INSTRUCTED BY THE PRESIDENT TO FIRE ONE OF
HIS KEY ALLIES IN THE ANC, WINNIE MANDELA, FROM THE
CABINET HE TRIED TO TALK HER INTO APOLOGIZING. MRS.
MANDELA DID NOT, WRITING INSTEAD A BITTER LETTER THAT
AMOUNTED TO AN AD HOMINEM ATTACK ON HER ESTRANGED
HUSBAND. FINALLY MANDELA FIRED HER HIMSELF, SKIPPING A
FEW CONSTITUTIONALLY STIPULATED STEPS, APPARENTLY HAVING
BEEN POORLY ADVISED. MRS. MANDELA THREATENED TO SUE AND
WHEN IT BECAME APPARENT SHE HAD SOLID LEGAL GROUNDS, SHE
WAS REINSTATED, ONLY TO BE FIRED AGAIN. IT WAS AN
EMBARRASSING EPISODE DURING WHICH MBEKI (NOT ENTIRELY
COINCIDENTALLY) MANAGED TO FIND HIMSELF OUT OF THE
COUNTRY. THE WHITE PRESS CRITICIZED MBEKI AS INDECISIVE.


4. NEXT, MBEKI RUSHED TO CLAIM A REPORT PREPARED BY HIS
LEGAL ADVISOR, MOJANKU GUMBI, EXONERATED DISGRACED ANC
WESTERN CAPE LEADER ALLAN BOESAK OF CULPABILITY IN
CORRUPTION CHARGES. A SENIOR ANC OFFICIAL TOLD US THAT
BOESAK, WITH TEARS STREAMING DOWN HIS FACE, VISITED
PRESIDENT MANDELA AT ANC HEADQUARTERS JUST PRIOR TO THE
RELEASE OF THE REPORT'S FINDINGS TO PROCLAIM HIS
INNOCENCE. BASED ON MBEKI'S STATEMENT AND BOESAK'S
DRAMATIC APPEAL, MANDELA PUBLICLY VOICED HIS CONFIDENCE
IN BOESAK, SAYING THE LATTER SHOULD RECEIVE ANOTHER
AMBASSADORSHIP. BOESAK CROWED ABOUT HIS "REHABILITATION"
AND DECLARED HE WAS READY TO SERVE HIS COUNTRY'S
GOVERNMENT. HOWEVER, SINCE THE INVESTIGATION BY THE
OFFICE OF SERIOUS ECONOMIC OFFENSES HAD NOT BEEN
CONCLUDED, THE PRESIDENT AND DEPUTY PRESIDENT'S
STATEMENTS SMACKED OF A WHITEWASH, WHICH THE PRESS HERE
CRITICIZED MERCILESSLY. GUMBI SUBSEQUENTLY CLARIFIED
THAT THE REPORT ONLY STATED THAT SHE HAD SEEN NO EVIDENCE
IMPLICATING BOESAK OF POCKETING FOREIGN DONOR FUNDS.
MANDELA BACKPEDALLED ON THE PROMISED APPOINTMENT, AND
MBEKI ALLEGEDLY TOLD BOESAK TO SHUN THE SPOTLIGHT WHILE
HE LOOKED FOR A JOB FOR HIM, POSSIBLY AT ANC
HEADQUARTERS.


5. ON MAY 5, A WELL-CONNECTED ANC LAWYER TOLD US GUMBI'S
SHORT REPORT WAS MEANT ONLY AS AN UPDATE FOR INTERNAL
USE, NOT A FINAL, PUBLIC REPORT. HE STRONGLY CRITICIZED
MBEKI FOR RELEASING THE REPORT, WHILE EXPRESSING
CONFIDENCE IN GUMBI.


6. MANDELA HAS ALSO GIVEN MBEKI THE LEAD IN LAYING OUT
THE ANC'S EXPLANATIONS FOR FAILING TO ACT ON THE APRIL
1994 AGREEMENT WITH INKATHA AND THE NP TO SEEK
INTERNATIONAL MEDIATION OF CERTAIN OUTSTANDING
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES. MBEKI WAS ALSO CHARGED WITH
NEGOTIATING THE ISSUE WITH THE IFP AND NP. WHILE
PRIVATELY REASSURING TO INKATHA LEADER MANGOSUTHU
BUTHELEZI, IN HIS PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON THE ISSUE MBEKI
HAS TAKEN A PARTICULARLY HARD LINE. THE ANC HAS IN
CONSEQUENCE TAKEN A DRUBBING FROM ASSORTED PARTY
SPOKESPERSONS, JOURNALISTS, AND OTHER OBSERVERS.


7. FINALLY, ACCORDING TO MEDIA REPORTS, MBEKI IN RECENT
WEEKS HAS BEEN WHIPPING UP ANTI-PRESS SENTIMENT BOTH IN
THE ANC'S PARLIAMENTARY CAUCUS AND THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE (NEC). HE BLAMED THE MEDIA FOR HIS RECENT
TROUBLES, POINTED OUT THAT THE PRESS WAS DICTATING ANC
DECISIONS, AND CULTIVATED A FEAR AMONG ANC ACTIVISTS THAT
A HOSTILE PRESS WILL KEEP ANTI-ANC NEWS IN THE HEADLINES
AS MOMENTUM BUILDS UP FOR THE NOVEMBER LOCAL GOVERNMENT
ELECTIONS. ONE INFLUENTIAL NEWSPAPER REPORTED THAT
MBEKI'S SUSPICION OF THE MEDIA LED HIM TO CALL FOR RADIO
AND TELEVISION TIME SLOTS FOR GOVERNMENT BROADCASTS.
SOME OBSERVERS HERE INTERPRET MBEKI'S INTOLERANCE OF
CRITICISM AS A RESIDUAL CHARACTERISTIC OF HIS DAYS IN
EXILE, WHEN THE LIBERATION MOVEMENT BROOKED NO DISSENT.

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WHEELER DEALER
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8. WHILE MBEKI MAY HAVE BEEN SCORED BY THE PRESS, HIS
POSITION WITHIN THE ANC AND GOVERNMENT IS SECURE. SELF-
ASSURED, ARTICULATE AND CHARISMATIC, HE REMAINS ONE OF
THE COUNTRY'S SHREWDEST POLITICIANS. HE HAS PLACED HIS
ALLIES IN KEY GOVERNMENT PORTFOLIOS, AND CONTINUES TO
BUILD UP AND CALL IN FAVORS. NOT STRAITJACKETED BY
IDEOLOGY, MBEKI IS IN THE SAME PRAGMATIC CAMP AS CYRIL
RAMAPHOSA. IF HE HAS A WEAKNESS IT IS AN INABILITY TO
FORESEE THE HARM THAT ASSOCIATION WITH CERTAIN PEOPLE CAN
CAUSE.


9. SINCE HIS REELECTION AS ANC SECRETARY GENERAL AND THE
DEATH OF KEY SUPPORTER JOE SLOVO, CYRIL RAMAPHOSA'S
RIVALRY WITH MBEKI HAS SUBSIDED. MBEKI LIEUTENANTS
APPEAR CONCERNED THAT DEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL CHERYL
CAROLUS IS A BECOMING A MAGNET FOR MBEKI'S ADVERSARIES.
ANC INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DIRECTOR YUSUF SALOOJEE TOLD US
THAT THE EMPLOYEES IN HIS OFFICE WERE BYPASSED FOR A
RAISE GRANTED TO ALL ANC HEADQUARTERS EMPLOYEES IN 1994.
INFORMED OF THE DISPARITY, PRESIDENT MANDELA INSTRUCTED
CAROLUS, WHO IS IN CHARGE OF THE ANC'S DAY-TO-DAY
OPERATIONS, BEFORE THE NATIONAL WORKING COMMITTE IN APRIL
1995 TO RECTIFY THE SITUATION IMMEDIATELY. SALOOJEE
HIMSELF COLLECTED 68,000 RANDS (APPROXIMATELY USD 18,900)
IN BACK PAY. SALOOJEE ALSO TOLD US THAT CAROLUS, WHO IS
CLOSE TO KEY MBEKI RIVAL MAC MAHARAJ, FAILS TO INFORM HIS
DEPARTMENT, WHICH ACTS AS MBEKI'S EYES AND EARS AT
HEADQUARTERS, OF IMPORTANT MEETINGS.


10. IN HIS GOVERNMENT OFFICES, ONE IS GREETED BY THE
SIGHT OF MINISTERS AND PARTY OFFICIALS WAITING FOR MBEKI
TO RECEIVE THEM AND TO TAKE ACTION ON A HOST OF PERSONAL
AND POLITICAL MATTERS. DUE TO POOR STAFFING AND HIS
PUNISHING TRAVEL SCHEDULE, MUCH BUSINESS FALLS THROUGH
THE CRACKS. MBEKI HAS BEEN CRITICIZED FOR MISSING
APPOINTMENTS, AND DOCUMENTS LIE IN HIS IN-BASKET FOR
WEEKS. HE IS CONSTITUTIONALLY UNABLE TO DELEGATE
DECISION MAKING AUTHORITY, AND EXHAUSTS HIMSELF BY
BECOMING EXCESSIVELY INVOLVED IN THE MOST MINUTE DETAILS
ON A RANGE OF ISSUES.


11. AFTER A YEAR IN HIGH GOVERNMENT OFFICE MBEKI REMAINS
PERSONALLY UNTAINTED BY SCANDAL. MBEKI HAS ALWAYS LIVED
COMFORTABLY, THANKS LARGELY TO HIS WIFE'S INCOME AS A
UNITED NATIONS EMPLOYEE AND BANK OFFICIAL, BUT NEVER
SUMPTUOUSLY. A RESPECTED FEMALE JOURNALIST AND
LONGSTANDING EMBASSY CONTACT CONFIDED TO US THAT SHE
AVOIDS ONE-ON-ONE SESSIONS WITH MBEKI BECAUSE HE HAS MADE
SEXUAL ADVANCES TOWARD HER. HOWEVER, SUCH STORIES ARE
RELATIVELY RARE, AND MBEKI HAS NOT GAINED THE REPUTATION
OF A "WOMANIZER".

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MANDELA'S SUCCESSOR?
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12. MBEKI'S MOST IMPORTANT ASSET IS THE TRUST AND
AFFECTION OF NELSON MANDELA. MANDELA HAS MADE HIM THE
MR. FIX-IT OF THE GOVERNMENT AND HANDED HIM INCREASING
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DAY-TO-DAY ADMINISTRATION OF THE
GOVERNMENT. IF MANDELA COULD, HE WOULD INSTALL HIS HAND-
PICKED CHOICE FOR SUCCESSOR IN THE PRESIDENCY OF BOTH
PARTY AND COUNTRY IN 1997 AND 1999, RESPECTIVELY.
HOWEVER, THE GIFT IS NOT ENTIRELY MANDELA'S TO GIVE.


13. MBEKI STILL HAS THE 1997 ANC NATIONAL CONFERENCE TO
SURVIVE BEFORE HE CAN CLAIM THE MANTLE OF LEADERSHIP. AT
THIS WRITING IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW POLITICAL
FORCES WITHIN THE PARTY WILL BE RANGED AT THAT TIME. WE
FIND IT PLAUSIBLE THAT ANC PROVINCIAL PREMIERS COULD
BEGIN BUILDING POWER BASES AND MACHINES IN THEIR
PROVINCES. ASSUMING THAT NONE OF THESE SATRAPS-IN-THE-
MAKING CHOOSES OPENLY TO CHALLENGE MBEKI FOR THE ANC
LEADERSHIP, THEY COULD VERY WELL BECOME KINGMAKERS, WHOM
MBEKI WILL HAVE TO COURT ASSIDUOUSLY. INDEED, MBEKI
SPENDS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME VISITING THE
PROVINCES AND HANDLING ANC PROBLEMS THERE IN RECOGNITION
OF THIS FACT.

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COMMENT
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14. MBEKI'S PERFORMANCE AFTER A YEAR IN OFFICE HAS
SPARKED SOME REVISIONIST THINKING ABOUT THE MAN. WHILE
STILL RESPECTED FOR HIS FORMIDABLE INTELLECT AND
POLITICAL INFIGHTING SKILLS, WE GET THE SENSE THAT SOME
PEOPLE HERE ARE BEGINNING TO QUESTION MORE OPENLY WHAT
MBEKI STANDS FOR. MANDELA IS LETTING MUCH OF THE BUCK
STOP AT HIS DEPUTY'S DESK, AND PROBLEMS AT THAT LEVEL
HAVE PROVEN IMPERVIOUS EITHER TO HIS DISARMING CHARM OR
THE TACTICS HE HAS SO OFTEN USED TO DEMOLISH RIVALS. HIS
OFFICE IS WOEFULLY STAFFED AND NOT ORGANIZED FOR HANDLING
THIS TYPE OF RESPONSIBILITY (MANDELA'S IS NOT BETTER),
WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE MISSTEPS OF RECENT MONTHS.
SO FAR HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO RIDE THE TIGER, BUT IN THE
RUNNING FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENCY MBEKI WILL BE, IN THE
WORDS OF A RESPECTED JOURNALIST HERE, A FASCINATING
CHARACTER TO WATCH. END COMMENT.


LYMAN