Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
95LONDON8776
1995-06-21 18:00:00
SECRET
Embassy London
Cable title:  

NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS "CRISIS"

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINS UK EI 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 211800Z JUN 95
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 0145
INFO AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 LONDON 008776 


DEPT FOR P, EUR AND EUR/UBI

NSC FOR SODERBERG AND STEPHENS

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS UK EI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS "CRISIS"

REFS: (A) FBIS MS1506142395, (B) DUBLIN 2913,
(C) DUBLIN 2812, (D) DUBLIN 2820, (E) DUBLIN 2778

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 LONDON 008776


DEPT FOR P, EUR AND EUR/UBI

NSC FOR SODERBERG AND STEPHENS

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS UK EI
SUBJECT: NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS "CRISIS"

REFS: (A) FBIS MS1506142395, (B) DUBLIN 2913,
(C) DUBLIN 2812, (D) DUBLIN 2820, (E) DUBLIN 2778


1. (U) PARAGRAPHS CLASSIFIED AS MARKED. OADR FOR
FOREIGN GOVERNMENT INFORMATION.


SUMMARY
--------------

2. (C) SINN FEIN LEADERS HAVE AUTHORITATIVELY RULED OUT
ANY DECOMMISSIONING OF WEAPONS -- EVEN A SYMBOLIC
GESTURE -- UNTIL THE SHAPE OF AN ACCEPTABLE POLITICAL
SETTLEMENT IS CLEAR, AND HAVE DEMANDED THAT HMG
IMMEDIATELY CONVENE ALL-PARTY TALKS. THEY SAID THEIR
EXPLORATORY DIALOGUE WITH HMG WAS FINISHED, BUT LEFT
OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MEETINGS WITH BRITISH MINISTERS
TO PREPARE FOR ALL-PARTY TALKS. SINN FEIN HAS LAUNCHED
A CAMPAIGN TO FORGE "PAN-NATIONALIST" CONSENSUS BEHIND
ITS POSITION, AND TO ISOLATE THE UNIONISTS AND HMG.


3. (S) BRITISH OFFICIALS ARE CONCERNED BY THE SUCCESS OF
SINN FEIN'S CAMPAIGN, BUT UNSURE HOW THEY CAN COUNTER
IT. THEY DO NOT WANT THE PEACE PROCESS TO BECOME
STALLED, AND ARE WORRIED BY INTELLIGENCE INDICATING A
POTENTIAL SPLIT IN THE IRA IN LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN.
THEY WANT TO MOVE ON ISSUES AT THE TOP OF THE REPUBLICAN
GENDA LIKE PRISONERS AND POLICING, BUT SINN FEIN HAS
REFUSED TO DISCUSS THEM SERIOUSLY. THE BRITISH INSIST
THAT SOME MOVEMENT ON DECOMMISSIONING IS ESSENTIAL IF
UNIONISTS AND TORY MP'S ARE TO BE KEPT ON BOARD: THERE
CAN BE NO ALL-PARTY TALKS WITHOUT AN UNEQUIVOCAL
DEMONSTRATION OF IRA INTENT NOT TO RESUME VIOLENCE. THE
OPPOSITION LABOUR PARTY STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS VIEW.


4. (S) THE BRITISH ARE LESS WORRIED THAN THEIR IRISH
COUNTERPARTS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE
PEACE PROCESS. THEY BELIEVE THE IRA WOULD HAVE LITTLE
COMMUNITY SUPPORT FOR A FULL-SCALE RETURN TO TERRORISM
AND THAT A DEFECTION OF ONE OR MORE IRA BRIGADES COULD
BE CONTAINED. THEY ARE CONVINCED THAT THEIR POSITION ON
DECOMMISSIONING IS BOTH RIGHT AND POLITICALLY
DEFENSIBLE, AND THAT THEY HAVE NO FURTHER ROOM TO
MANEUVER. IF THE BRITISH PERSIST, SOMETHING WILL HAVE
TO GIVE: EITHER SINN FEIN AND THE IRA WILL FIND A WAY
TO DEMONSTRATE THEIR COMMITMENT TO NONVIOLENCE, OR THE
PEACE PROCESS WILL BREAK DOWN. END SUMMARY.

NO TO DECOMMISSIONING
--------------


5. (U) SINN FEIN OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING FOR OVER
A MONTH THAT THE IRA WOULD NOT DECOMMISSION ITS ARMS
UNTIL POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS PRODUCED A BLUEPRINT FOR
IRELAND'S FUTURE THAT IT FOUND ACCEPTABLE. IN A LONG
ARTICLE IN THE JUNE 14 "IRISH TIMES" (REF A),GERRY
ADAMS MADE IT OFFICIAL:

-- "THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IS DEMANDING THE SURRENDER
OF IRA WEAPONS AS A PRECONDITION TO ALL-PARTY PEACE
TALKS ON THE FUTURE OF IRELAND. THE LOGIC OF THAT
POSITION, IF ADHERED TO, IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO
INCLUSIVE PEACE TALKS AND NO DEMOCRATIC SETTLEMENT."

-- "IT HAS BEEN ARGUED THAT THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IS
SIMPLY ASKING FOR A SYMBOLIC GESTURE. BUT IT IS A
GESTURE WHICH WOULD SYMBOLIZE AN IRA SURRENDER....
THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IS, IN EFFECT, DEMANDING THE
SURRENDER OF THE IRA."

-- "SINN FEIN CANNOT, AND WILL NOT, INVOLVE ITSELF IN
A FUTILE EXERCISE TO BRING ABOUT AN IRA SURRENDER."


6. (U) IN A SERIES OF ARTICLES, SPEECHES AND INTERVIEWS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ADAMS AND OTHER SINN FEIN
LEADERS REPEATED THIS MESSAGE ENDLESSLY. ON JUNE 17,
ADAMS TOLD AN INTERVIEWER THAT A RETURN TO VIOLENCE WAS
"ABSOLUTELY" POSSIBLE, BUT DENIED THE NEXT DAY THAT HE
HAD INTENDED THIS STATEMENT AS A THREAT. MARTIN
MCGUINNESS MADE THE SAME POINTS IN THE ANNUAL WOLFE TONE
COMMEMORATION SPEECH JUNE 18 (REF B),CALLING HMG'S
INSISTENCE ON AT LEAST TOKEN DECOMMISSIONING "DANGEROUS
AND DISHONORABLE," AND A "CYNICAL GAME." ADAMS AND
MCGUINNESS INSISTED THAT SINN FEIN AND THE IRA WERE
WILLING TO COUNTENANCE DISARMAMENT, BUT ONLY AS PART OF
A "UNIVERSAL DECOMMISSIONING OF ARMS, BRITISH AND IRISH,
ONCE AN ALL-ENCOMPASSING POLITICAL DISCUSSION AND
FRAMEWORK IS AGREED UPON."

DEMAND FOR ALL-PARTY TALKS
--------------

7. (U) THE SINN FEIN LEADERS ALSO CONFIRMED THAT THEY
WOULD NOT AGREE TO ANY MORE "EXPLORATORY DIALOGUE"
MEETINGS WITH BRITISH MINISTERS. NATIONAL CHAIRMAN
MITCHEL MCLAUGHLIN TOLD THE BBC ON JUNE 12 THAT "WE
BELIEVE THAT WE'VE COVERED THOSE ISSUES WHICH WERE
RELEVANT AND LEGITIMATE AND NOW IT IS TIME TO MOVE ON TO
A COMMITMENT TO OPEN ALL-PARTY TALKS." MCGUINNESS MADE
THE SAME POINTS IN HIS JUNE 18 SPEECH.


8. ADAMS, IN HIS "IRISH TIMES" ARTICLE AND WEEKEND
INTERVIEWS FROM SOUTH AFRICA, ADDED THAT:

-- "ALL-PARTY PEACE TALKS SHOULD BE INITIATED AS A
MATTER OF URGENCY AND WITHIN AN AGREED TIME FRAME."

-- "THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO
DICTATE THE TERMS OF THIS ACCOMMODATION, NOR CAN IT
BE ALLOWED TO DETERMINE WHO CAN OR CANNOT
PARTICIPATE IN THE NEGOTITIONS...."

-- "... THE BRITISH HAVE, AS EVER, USED THE CONVENIENT
COVER OF THE UNIONISTS. IN DOING SO THEY ARE
ENCOURAGING, RATHER THAN DISCOURAGING, UNIONIST
INTRANSIGENCE."

A FEW LOOPHOLES
--------------

9. (C) DESPITE THE CATEGORICAL TONE OF THE SINN FEIN
STATEMENTS, IT MAY PROVE SIGNIFICANT THAT THEY LEFT OPEN
A FEW LOOPHOLES THROUGH WHICH THE PARTY MIGHT EVENTUALLY
SLIDE OFF ITS HARD-LINE POSITION. THE REJECTIONS OF
DECOMMISSIONING GENERALLY SET UP A STRAW MAN TO ATTACK:
ADAMS AND MCGUINNESS REJECTED A UNILATERAL SURRENDER OF
ALL IRA WEAPONS BEFORE TALKS COULD BEGIN, KNOWING FULL
WELL THAT THIS IS NOT WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN ASKED TO DO.


10. (C) ON DIALOGUE, THE SINN FEIN LEADERS CAREFULLY
ALLOWED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED DISCUSSIONS
UNDER ANOTHER NAME. SINCE HMG IS ALREADY CONDUCTING ITS
TALKS WITH BOTH UNIONIST PARTIES UNDER VARIOUS DODGES
AND LINGUISTIC SUBTERFUGES, THIS NEED NOT BE AN
INSUPERABLE OBSTACLE TO CONTINUING THE EXPLORATORY
DIALOGUE UNDER A NEW NAME.

PAN-NATIONALIST CAMPAIGN
--------------

11. (C) SINN FEIN'S LOBBYING CAMPAIGN TO GENERATE A
"PAN-NATIONALIST CONSENSUS" IN SUPPORT OF ITS POSITION
HAS BEEN UNDERWAY FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. IT ECHOES THE
PATTERN OF PREVIOUS CAMPAIGNS FOR VISAS AND FUNDRAISING
PERMISSION, SEEKING FIRST TO WIN OVER SDLP LEADER JOHN
HUME, IRISH OFFICIALS AND FIANNA FAIL, THEN PUTTING
PRESSURE THROUGH THEM ON JOHN BRUTON AND DICK SPRING.
HUME APPEARS TO BE ON BOARD, THOUGH SDLP DEPUTY LEADER
SEAMUS MALLON URGED THE IRA ON JUNE 16 TO "DO THIS THING
ON DECOMMISSIONING FOR THE REST OF US, FOR THE IRISH
PEOPLE AND CALL THE BRITISH BLUFF." REFS C-E INDICATE
THAT IRISH OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN WON OVER. SPRING AND
BRUTON HAVE WAVERED, AND MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT
BRUTON HAS PROPOSED AN ANGLO-IRISH STUDY OF MODALITIES
OF DECOMMISSIONING, PRESUMABLY AS A DELAYING TACTIC.


12. (U) A KEY PART OF THE CAMPAIGN IS TO CREATE A
CLIMATE OF OPINION THAT THE BRITISH AND UNIONIST DEMANDS
DO NOT MEAN WHAT THEY SAY, THAT DECOMMISSIONING IS BOTH
IMPOSSIBLE AND UNREASONABLE, AND THAT HMG IS ISOLATED
INTERNATIONALLY. ADAMS WROTE THAT:

-- "THERE IS NO INTERNATIONAL PRECEDENT AND CERTAINLY
NO PRECEDENT IN IRELAND FOR THE HANDING OVER OF
WEAPONS."

-- "THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT ... WISH TO DEFLECT AND
DILUTE THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR A
DEMOCRATIC AND NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT BY CREATING AN
UNNECESSARY AND DIVISIVE ARGUMENT OVER IRA WEAPONS."

-- "THEY MAY, IN FACT, WISH TO CAUSE DIVISIONS AND
FRACTIONS WITHIN THE IRA ITSELF IN AN ATTEMPT TO
UNDERMINE THE STRENGTH OF THE REPUBLICAN POSITION.
IN SHORT, THEY WISH TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO."

-- "THE IRISH GOVERNMENT AND ALL POLITICAL PARTIES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UNIONISTS HAVE CALLED FOR
SUBSTANTIVE NEGOTIATIONS TO BEGIN. THE BRITISH
GOVERNMENT IS REFUSING TO TAKE THIS ESSENTIAL STEP
AND IS PREVENTING PROGRESS TOWARDS AN AGREED AND
LASTING POLITICAL SETTLEMENT."


13. (U) SIMILARLY, MCLAUGHLIN POINTED TO BRUTON'S
INVITATION TO ALL PARTIES TO TALK, AND SAID THIS PROVED
THAT HMG WAS "THE OBSTACLE TO AGREEMENT ON PEACE IN
IRELAND." AND MCGUINNESS CLAIMED THAT "THE CONCEPT OF
ALL-PARTY PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN IRELAND WAS SUPPORTED BY
AN EXPECTANT AND WATCHING WORLD. ONLY THE BRITISH
GOVERNMENT STOOD IN THE WAY OF REAL PEACE TALKS."


14. (C) IN ALL THESE STATEMENTS, NONE OF THE SINN FEIN
SPOKESMEN ACKNOWLEDGED PRESIDENT CLINTON'S CALL AT THE
WASHINGTON INVESTMENT CONFERENCE FOR PROGRESS TOWARD
DECOMMISSIONING, OR FORMER COSTA RICAN PRESIDENT OSCAR
ARIAS' SIMILAR APPEAL FOR PARAMILITARY DISARMAMENT AT A
RECONCILIATION CONFERENCE IN BELFAST.

BRITISH PERPLEXED
--------------

15. (C) BRITISH MINISTERS AND OFFICIALS HAVE WATCHED THE
SINN FEIN CAMPAIGN DEVELOP, BUT ARE AT A LOSS HOW BEST
TO COUNTER IT. THEY BELIEVE THAT THEIR CURRENT POSITION
IS BOTH REASONABLE, MORALLY RIGHT AND POLITICALLY
DEFENSIBLE. THEY POINT OUT THAT:

-- THEY HAVE TAKEN A LONG SERIES OF STEPS TO DEFUSE
CONFRONTATION IN NORTHERN IRELAND, AND HAVE
MODIFIED THEIR POSITION REPEATEDLY IN ORDER TO
FACILITATE COMPROMISE WITH SINN FEIN.

-- SINN FEIN AND THE IRA, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE
OFFERED VIRTUALLY NO SIGNS OF FLEXIBILITY SINCE THE
CEASEFIRE.

-- GENUINE NEGOTIATIONS CANNOT TAKE PLACE IN AN
ATMOSPHERE OF TERRORIST THREAT AND COERCION.

-- THEY DO NOT SEEK A UNILATERAL SURRENDER OF ALL IRA
WEAPONS, BUT ONLY A TOKEN DECOMMISSIONING AS A
GESTURE OF GOOD FAITH AS PART OF THE BEGINNING OF A
PROCESS OF PHASED, RECIPROCAL DISARMAMENT IN WHICH
THEY HAVE ALREADY TAKEN THE FIRST STEPS.

-- THEY ARE ASKING NO MORE OF THE IRA THAN THEY ARE OF
THE LOYALIST PARAMILITARIES.

-- THEY HAVE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATING LEEWAY. UNIONISTS
OF ALL STRIPES HAVE MADE IT PERFECTLY CLEAR THAT
THEY WILL NOT SIT DOWN WITH SINN FEIN WHILE THE IRA
REMAINS ON A WAR FOOTING, AND ABANDONING THE DEMAND
FOR SOME DECOMMISSIONING WOULD GIVE NEW IMPETUS FOR
TORY BACKBENCH DEMANDS FOR MAJOR'S RESIGNATION.


16. (C) NORTHERN IRELAND OFFICE (NIO) OFFICIALS TOLD US
JUNE 15 THAT THEY DID NOT INTEND TO LEAVE ADAMS' ARTICLE
UNCHALLENGED, AND WERE PREPARING A REPLY TO IT. THEY
HOPED THEY COULD SUSTAIN THE SUPPORT OF BRUTON AND
SPRING, AS WELL AS THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION.

READY TO MOVE
--------------

17. (S) WE HAVE NO EVIDENCE TO SUBSTANTIATE THE CLAIM
THAT HMG IS TRYING TO STALL PROGRESS ON THE PEACE
PROCESS, AS SINN FEIN AND SOME IRISH OFFICIALS SUGGEST.
THE BRITISH ARE ANXIOUS TO SUSTAIN THE MOMENTUM
GENERATED BY THE WASHINGTON CONFERENCE. THEY HAVE
OFFERED SINN FEIN THE OPPORTUNITY TO RAISE ANY ISSUE IT
WANTS IN THE EXPLORATORY DIALOGUE, AND TO MEET WITH ANY
NIO MINISTER ON APPROPRIATE ISSUES -- PUTTING SINN FEIN
EFFECTIVELY ON THE SAME FOOTING AS THE NONVIOLENT
PARTIES. THEY BELIEVE THE LOYALISTS ARE PREPARED TO
MOVE ON DECOMMISSIONING IF THE IRA DOES SO. AND THEY
ARE READY TO AUTHORIZE THE WITHDRAWAL OF MORE BRITISH
ARMY BATTALIONS AS SOON AS CONDITIONS PERMIT.


18. (S) THE BRITISH ALSO SHARE THE WORRIES OF THEIR
IRISH COUNTERPARTS ABOUT A POSSIBLE SPLIT WITHIN THE IRA
IF THERE IS NO FURTHER PROGRESS BEFORE THE AUGUST
CEASEFIRE. INTELLIGENCE REPORTING ON THIS ISSUE IS
MIXED. SOME REPORTS INDICATE THAT ONE OR MORE IRA
BRIGADES MAY DEFECT IN AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER. OTHER
REPORTS, HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT SUPPORT FOR THE
CEASEFIRE IN REPUBLICAN COMMUNITIES CONTINUES TO
SOLIDIFY, AND THAT THE IRA WOULD FACE GREAT DIFFICULTIES
IN RESUMING FULL-SCALE VIOLENCE.


19. (C) FOR THIS REASON, THE BRITISH HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
ENGAGE SINN FEIN ON ISSUES PRESUMED TO BE AT THE TOP OF
ITS AGENDA: PRISONERS, POLICING, AND ECONOMIC
REGENERATION. UNFORTUNATELY, IN THE EXPLORATORY
DIALOGUE SINN FEIN HAS REFUSED TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES
IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY. A SENIOR NIO OFFICIAL TOLD US
JUNE 15 THAT SINN FEIN, WHILE COMPLAINING ABOUT HMG'S
"SINGLE ISSUE AGENDA," HAD ITSELF REFUSED TO DISCUSS ANY
SUBJECT EXCEPT DECOMMISSIONING (IN ORDER TO REJECT IT).


20. (S) THE BRITISH, HOWEVER, DO NOT FULLY SHARE THEIR
IRISH COUNTERPARTS' SENSE OF URGENCY. AS NOTED ABOVE,
THEY DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE THREAT OF A FULL-SCALE
RESUMPTION OF THE IRA'S TERRORIST CAMPAIGN IS CREDIBLE
BECAUSE OF THE TRANSFORMATION IN COMMUNITY ATTITUDES.
THE DEFECTION OF ONE OR MORE IRA BRIGADES WOULD BE
UNFORTUNATE, BUT SHOULD BE CONTAINABLE AND NEED NOT
NECESSARILY END THE PEACE PROCESS. THEY ARE MORE
WORRIED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE IRA WOULD CONDUCT
A PARTIAL RESUMPTION OF ITS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN GREAT
BRITAIN ONLY, BUT BELIEVE THAT CAVING IN TO REPUBLICAN
DEMANDS NOW WOULD BE BOTH FUTILE AND MORE DANGEROUS IN
THE LONG TERM.

OPPOSITION SUPPORT
--------------

21. (U) JOHN HUME CLAIMED JUNE 19 THAT HMG WAS STALLING
ON TALKS BECAUSE OF "INTERNAL SQUABBLING" OVER THE
LEADERSHIP OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY. THIS IS NOT OUR
ASSESSMENT: THERE IS NO DISSENT WITHIN THE TORY PARTY
OVER THE NEED FOR DECOMMISSIONING, AND THE GOVERNMENT
ALSO ENJOYS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE MAIN OPPOSITION
PARTIES. AFTER MEETING FIANNA FAIL LEADER BERTIE AHERNE
IN LONDON JUNE 19, LABOUR LEADER TONY BLAIR SAID:
LABOUR ENTIRELY SUPPORTS THE GOVERNMENT'S EMPHASIS ON
THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPLORATORY DIALOGUE TO AVOID DEADLOCK
IN THE PEACE PROCESS AND THEIR INSISTENCE THAT, BEFORE
SUBSTANTIVE TALKS CAN TAKE PLACE, BOTH REPUBLICAN AND
LOYALIST REPRESENTATIVES MUST ACCEPT THE PRINCIPLE OF
DECOMMISSIONING OF ARMS, AGREE ON THE MEANS AND SIGNAL
THE START OF THE PROCESS AS A SIGN OF GOOD FAITH." HE
HAS MADE SIMILAR STATEMENTS TO THE AMBASSADOR.


22. (C) SHADOW NORTHERN IRELAND SECRETARY MO MOWLAM
REITERATED THIS POSITION TO US JUNE 20. SHE SAID THAT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ON THE FAR LEFT FRINGE OF
THE PARTY, LABOUR ACCEPTED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS
TAKING THE RIGHT LINE ON THE POLITICS OF NORTHERN
IRELAND. IF LABOUR CAME TO POWER IN THE NEAR FUTURE,
ITS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICIES IN NORTHERN IRELAND
WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT, BUT ITS POLITICAL
POLICY WOULD BE INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE CURRENT ONE.

COMMENT
--------------

23. (C) WHILE ALL BRITISH OFFICIALS, AND ALL UNIONIST
PARTIES, HAVE TOLD US THAT SOME DECOMMISSIONING OF IRA
ARMS IS ESSENTIAL IF FURTHER PROGRESS IS TO BE MADE,
MOST ACKNOWLEDGE THAT DECOMMISSIONING PER SE IS NOT THE
REAL ISSUE. POLICE AND ARMY OFFICIALS HAVE ADMITTED,
MORE OR LESS PUBLICLY, THAT THE IRA COULD EASILY REPLACE
ANY TOKEN AMOUNT OF AGING WEAPONS AND EXPLOSIVES IT
CHOSE TO GIVE UP AT THIS POINT. ITS MOST DAMAGING
ATTACKS IN RECENT YEARS HAVE EMPLOYED HOMEMADE WEAPONS,
ON WHICH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES. BUT
GETTING RID OF ANY AMOUNT OF WEAPONS, HOWEVER OBSOLETE,
WOULD CONSTITUTE THE FIRST GENUINE DEMONSTRATION OF THE
INTENT OF THE CURRENT IRA LEADERSHIP NOT TO RESUME THE
ARMED CONFLICT. AS CHURCH OF IRELAND PRELATE ROBIN
EAMES TOLD THE DUBLIN PEACE FORUM RECENTLY, THE KEY IS
FOR THE REPUBLICANS TO FOSTER A CLIMATE OF TRUST "BY
SHOWING THAT WE CAN BELIEVE YOUR WORDS."


24. (C) WE CAN SEE SEVERAL POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE
CURRENT STALEMATE:

-- SINN FEIN AND THE IRA COULD CONCLUDE THAT
DECOMMISSIONING WAS ESSENTIAL AND BEGIN THE
PROCESS. THIS WOULD BE DIFFICULT INTERNALLY, AND
MIGHT RESULT IN SOME DEFECTIONS, BUT WOULD UNLOCK THE
DOOR TO RAPID MOVEMENT ON SEVERAL OTHER FRONTS.

-- THE REPUBLICANS COULD FIND AN ALTERNATIVE MEANS OF
DEMONSTRATING THEIR INTENT TO END VIOLENCE FOR
GOOD. THEY COULD CONVENE A GENERAL ARMY CONVENTION
TO DECLARE AN END TO THE ARMED STRUGGLE, OR ISSUE A
UNANIMOUS PROVISIONAL ARMY COUNCIL STATEMENT TO THE
SAME EFFECT. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO
RENDER THE WEAPONS ISSUE IRRELEVANT IN MOST EYES,
BUT MIGHT BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT FOR REPUBLICAN
ACTIVISTS TO ACCEPT.

-- THE IRA COULD USE THE IMPASSE AS A PRETEXT TO
RESUME ITS ARMED CAMPAIGN. THIS IS UNLIKELY,
BECAUSE THE COMMUNITY REACTION WOULD RISK FAILURE
AND COLLAPSE. MORE LIKELY WOULD BE A LIMITED
NUMBER OF DEMONSTRATION BOMBINGS IN ENGLAND.

-- HMG COULD CAVE IN, DROP ITS INSISTENCE ON
DECOMMISSIONING AND CALL ALL-PARTY TALKS. THE
UNIONISTS WOULD UNQUESTIONABLY REJECT NOT ONLY THE
TALKS BUT ANY FURTHER DEALINGS WITH THE GOVERNMENT,
AND THEIR FRIENDS ON THE TORY BACKBENCHES WOULD
REBEL, THUS BRINGING TO AN ABRUPT END THE POLITICAL
PROCESS IN NORTHERN IRELAND, AND POSSIBLY THE MAJOR
GOVERNMENT.

-- THE STALEMATE COULD CONTINUE FOR MANY MONTHS. IF
THE CEASEFIRE HELD (BY NO MEANS A SURE BET),
UNIONISTS MIGHT EVENTUALLY ACCEPT SINN FEIN'S
COMMITMENT TO PEACE AND HMG COULD MOVE TOWARD
ALL-PARTY TALKS. SINN FEIN COULD TRUMPET THIS AS A
VICTORY, BUT THE RISKS OF LOST MOMENTUM AND RISING
ANGER ON BOTH SIDES WOULD BE VERY SEVERE.


CROWE