LEADER OF SUDANESE OPPOSITION SEEKS USG SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 013048


DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E, NEA/ENA
PARIS FOR MORAN

E.O. 12356: DECL: 9/15/25
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EAID SU IQ IZ
SUBJECT: LEADER OF SUDANESE OPPOSITION SEEKS USG SUPPORT


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: LEADER OF THE SUDANESE OPPOSITION
COALITION, AL-SAYED EL-MERGHANI, TOLD US SEPTEMBER 15
THAT OPPOSITION EFFORTS WILL PRODUCE THE DOWNFALL OF THE
NATIONAL ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) REGIME IN KHARTOUM.

-- TO FURTHER THIS EFFORT, EL-MERGHANI ASKED THE USG TO
"ENCOURAGE" REGIONAL LEADERS TO LEND SUPPORT TO SUDANESE
OPPOSITION GROUPS. WE RESPONDED THAT THE U.S. WOULD NOT
INTERFERE WITH INTERNAL MATTERS IN SUDAN, BUT AGREED TO
PASS ON HIS REQUEST. PLEASE NOTE ACTION REQUEST,
PARAGRAPH 11.

-- REGARDING TERRORIST ACTIVITY, EL-MERGHANI SAID HE IS
SURE THE NOTORIOUS BIN LADEN REMAINS IN SUDAN. HE
ACCUSED THE GOS OF COMPLICITY IN THE ASSASSINATION
ATTEMPT ON PRESIDENT MUBARAK.

-- EL-MERGHANI NOTED EVIDENCE OF SUPPORT FROM BOTH IRAN
AND IRAQ FOR THE NIF, CITING NIF LEADER TURABI'S
PARTICULARLY CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN. END
SUMMARY.


3. AFRICA WATCHER MET IN LONDON ON SEPTEMBER 15 WITH
LEADER OF THE SUDANESE DEMOCRATIC UNIONIST PARTY (DUP)
AND HEAD OF THE COUNTRY'S OPPOSITION COALITION, AL-SAYED
MOHAMED OSMAN EL-MERGHANI. ALTHOUGH EL-MERGHANI SPEAKS
SOME ENGLISH, HE USUALLY SPOKE IN ARABIC, WHICH HIS
AIDE, A. HADI (A SECURITY CONSULTANT BASED IN THE
BRITISH MIDLANDS),TRANSLATED. MERGHANI WORE CEREMONIAL
BLACK ROBES AND A TURBAN.


OPPOSITION GOALS
--------------


4. EL-MERGHANI NOTED THAT THE DUP HAD JUST COMPLETED
THE LONDON MEETING OF ITS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE THAT DAY.
THE PARTY HAD RESOLVED THAT, IN THE ABSENCE OF SUPPORT
FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, THE DUP WILL BEGIN TO
LOBBY SUDANESE IN EXILE FOR SUPPORT. IN PARTICULAR,
EL-MERGHANI SAID, THE OPPOSITION IS SEEKING TO ESTABLISH
A RADIO STATION. AT THE SAME TIME, OPPOSITIONISTS WILL
SEEK SUPPORT FROM DISGRUNTLED MEMBERS OF THE SUDANESE
MILITARY. IN ADDITION TO GENERAL FATIH AHMED ALI, SOME
COMMANDERS IN BORDER AREAS ARE SYMPATHETIC TO THE
OPPOSITION.


5. ASKED FOR HIS PROGNOSIS, EL-MERGHANI SAID HE
BELIEVED SUDAN WILL AVOID SOMALIA'S FATE, AND THAT THE
SUDANESE PEOPLE WILL "TOPPLE" THE NIF REGIME. BUT THE
GOS WILL NEVER FALL ON ITS OWN. THE CURRENT SPATE OF
DEMONSTRATIONS ARE THE FIRST HINT OF THAT KIND OF
EFFORT. YET FOREIGN AFFAIRS SECRETARY EL-SADDIN HAS
SAID THAT IF THE GOS FALLS, HE WILL MAKE THE COUNTRY
UNGOVERNABLE, EL-MERGHANI TOLD US. AND IF THE
GOVERNMENT FALLS AND THE OPPOSITION COMES TO POWER,
EL-MERGHANI BELIEVES SIXTH-COLUMNISTS FROM THE NIF WILL
POSE A SERIOUS DANGER TO ITS STABILITY, ALONG WITH
TERRORISTS WHOM THE NIF REGIME HAS SUPPORTED.


REQUEST FOR USG SUPPORT
--------------


6. EL-MERGHANI SAID THE SUDANESE OPPOSITION DID NOT
WANT INTERVENTION FROM THE U.S. OR NEIGHBORING STATES,
BUT HOPED FOR SUPPORT. IN PARTICULAR, HE ASKED THE U.S.
TO "ENCOURAGE" NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES -- HE MENTIONED
EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA AND THE GULF STATES IN PARTICULAR --
TO LEND SUPPORT TO THE OPPOSITION. FOR IF THE
PPOSITION DOES NOT SUCCEED IN OVERTHROWING THE NIF
REGIME, EL-MERGHANI ARGUED, THE AREA WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE. IN RESPONSE, WE SAID THE U.S. WILL NOT
INTERVENE IN, NOR INTERFERE WITH THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS
OF, SUDAN. WE WOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS FOR GREATER
RESPECT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS, AND TO SEEK A REGIONAL
SOLUTION TO INSTABILITY IN THE REGION. THAT SAID, WE
AGREED TO CONVEY EL-MERGHANI'S REQUEST BACK TO
WASHINGTON.


GOS SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM
--------------


7. ASKED ABOUT KHARTOUM'S SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM,
EL-MERGHANI REPLIED THAT THE LOWEST LEVEL OF GOS SUPPORT
FOR TERRORISM IS ITS OPERATION OF VARIOUS ISLAMIC
"SALVATION GROUPS." MANY OF THE MID-LEVEL MANAGERS OF
THESE GROUPS ARE EITHER SAUDI ARABIAN OR LIBYAN, THOUGH
MOST OF THE FIELD WORKERS ARE ACTUALLY PALESTINIAN. IN
ADDITION, MANY APPARENTLY PRIVATE FIRMS IN SUDAN ARE
ACTUALLY FUND-RAISING FRONTS FOR TERRORISTS, MOSTLY USED
FOR ACQUIRING WEAPONS, HE ADDED. THE NOTORIOUS OSAMA
BIN LADIN REMAINS IN KHARTOUM, EL-MERGHANI MAINTAINED.
HE NOTED THAT A REPRESENTATIVE OF AN IRANIAN-FUNDED
ISLAMIC FRONT GROUP, A SAUDI CITIZEN NAMED (FNU)
MASSARI, IS CURRENTLY IN THE UK UNDER BIN LADIN'S
DIRECTION; HE SAID HE HAD TOLD HMG OF THIS.


RELATIONS WITH EGYPT, IGADD
--------------


8. ASKED ABOUT THE MUBARAK ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT,
EL-MERGHANI ACCUSED THE GOS OF INVOLVEMENT IN IT, ADDING
HE BELIEVED IT WOULD CAUSE A SHAKE UP IN EGYPTIAN
SECURITY. IN HIS VIEW, MANY ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS HAD
INFILTRATED THE EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING ITS
SECURITY APPARATUS. HE BLAMED LACK OF SAUDI SUPPORT ON
SIMILAR INFILTRATION BY ISLAMISTS. HADI, EL-MERGHANI'S
ASSISTANT, LATER ADDED THAT THE EGYPTIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER'S SUDANESE DESK RECENTLY UNDERWENT A PERSONNEL
UPHEAVAL AS A RESULT OF GOE SECURITY MEASURES, RESULTING
IN IMPROVED COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN CAIRO AND THE
SUDANESE OPPOSITION. EL-MERGHANI ALSO APPLAUDED EGYPT'S
REDUCTION OF DIPLOMATIC PRESENCE IN SUDAN. ASKED ABOUT
PROSPECTS FOR IGADD BROKERING A REGIONAL SETTLEMENT,
EL-MERGHANI CALLED THE NIF REGIME "EVIL" AND INCAPABLE
OF AGREEING TO PEACE.


TURABI AND ISLAMISM
--------------


9. AT THE CENTER OF THE NIF REGIME IS TURABI,
EL-MERGHANI CONTINUED, WHO HAS CLOSE TIES TO IRAN AND
IRAQ. THE NIF RECEIVES MANY DONATIONS FROM IRANIAN
FRONT ORGANIZATIONS, PARTICULARLY THE WRETCHED OF THE
EARTH, MANY OF WHICH EARN LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY THROUGH
THEIR OPERATION OF HOTELS IN TEHRAN. THESE
ORGANIZATIONS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO ANNOUNCE "A GREAT
LEAP," WHICH EL-MERGHANI BELIEVES MUST REFER TO PLANNED
ATTACKS ON FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS AND THEIR OFFICIALS.


10. TURABI HAS LONG HAD A CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH SADDAM
HUSSEIN, EL-MERGHANI SAID. TURABI URGED SADDAM TO
INVADE KUWAIT, AND ADVISED SADDAM TO INVOKE THE KORAN
DURING THE GULF WAR AND AFTER. MORE RECENTLY,
EL-MERGHANI SAID HE HAD HEARD FROM "EYE-WITNESSES" THAT
TURABI HAS SAID THAT MUBARAK AND SAUDI ARABIAN KING FAHD
"MUST GO." TURABI HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE CONTACT WITH
ISLAMISTS IN QATAR. EL-MERGHANI SAID HE BELIEVES TURABI
PLANNED A SERIES OF ISLAMIST COUPS THROUGHOUT THE GULF
REGION, THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY BRING HIM ENORMOUS POWER
BEHIND THE SCENES. FOR THIS REASON, EL-MERGHANI
CONCLUDED, HE BELIEVES THAT TURABI HAS BECOME
MEGALOMANIACAL. IN CLOSING, HE ASKED TO MEET AMBASSADOR
CARNEY EITHER IN LONDON OR CAIRO AT SOME MUTUALLY
AGREEABLE TIME, AND TO RECOMMEND A CONTACT AT EMBASSY
CAIRO.


COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST
--------------


11. EL-MERGHANI IS A SERIOUS INTERLOCUTOR, THOUGH IT
MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUBSTANTIATE ALL HIS VIEWS. WE
BELIEVE WE SHOULD REPLY TO HIS REQUEST FOR USG
ENCOURAGEMENT OF NEIGHBORING STATES IN HIS CAUSE'S
BEHALF. WHILE WE BELIEVE THE USG CANNOT OFFER SUCH
ENCOURAGEMENT, WE COULD OFFER TO KEEP IN CLOSE TOUCH
INSTEAD, PROBABLY IN CAIRO (WHERE HE SPENDS MOST OF THE
YEAR). ACTION REQUEST: PLEASE PROVIDE GUIDANCE TO
REPLY TO EL-MERGHANI'S REQUEST. NOTE: EL-MERGHANI WILL
REMAIN IN LONDON UNTIL LATE SEPTEMBER; AFRICA WATCHER
CAN CONVEY USG RESPONSE VIA EL-MERGHANI'S AIDE.


DEAL