BASHIR TAKES CHARGE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 004189

LONDON FOR YOUNG

PARIS FOR MORAN

E.O. 12356: 2005
TAGS: PGOV PREL SU
SUBJECT: BASHIR TAKES CHARGE?

REF: KHARTOUM 3996


1. COL. (RETD) MARTIN MALWAL AROP, A LONG TIME EMBASSY
CONTACT, TOLD THE DCM LAST NIGHT THAT PRESIDENT OMAR EL
BASHIR IS ASSERTING HIS AUTHORITY AS COMANDER IN CHIEF OF
THE ARMED FORCES TO REDUCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NATIONAL
ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) ON THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN. MALWAL
SAID THAT BASHIR RECENTLY CONVENED A MEETING OF SENIOR
MILITARY OFFICERS TO SOLICIT SUPPORT FOR THIS COURSE OF
ACTION. AT THIS MEETING, BASHIR SPECIFICALLY ASKED
BRIGADIER EL HADI ABDULLAH MOHAMED, COMMANDER OF THE
HEADQUARTERS BRIGADE AND KNOWN NIFER, IF HE WOULD SUPPORT
HIM. (FYI: THE MISSION OF BRIGADIER HADI'S BRIGADE IS TO
DEFEND THE CAPITAL AND MILITARY HEADQUARTERS AGAINST A
COUP ATTEMPT. HADI WAS CHOSEN TO COMMAND THIS UNIT
BECAUSE OF HIS SYMPATHY FOR THE NIF. END FYI.) HADI AND
THE OTHER OFFICERS PRESENT AT THE MEETING PROMISED BASHIR
THEIR SUPPORT.


2. MARTIN DID NOT KNOW THE PROXIMATE CAUSE OF BASHIR'S
ACTION BUT SAID MANY THINGS WERE GOING ON THAT OF WHICH
BASHIR EITHER DID NOT APPROVE OR WAS UNAWARE. THE DCM
WONDERED WHY IT HAD TAKEN BASHIR SIX YEARS TO FIGURE THIS
OUT. MARTIN DEFENDED BASHIR, WHO SAID HE WAS A MILITARY
ACADEMY BATCH MATE OF HIS, SAYING IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE
JUNE 30, 1989 COUP THAT BROUGHT BASHIR TO POWER HE HAD
CALLED ON ALL ELEMENTS TO RALLY TO THE GOVERNMENT BUT ONLY
THE NIF HAD COME FORWARD. HE ALSO ARGUED THAT BASHIR WAS
SIMPLY UNAWARE OF ACTIVITIES SOME OF THE NIF MEMBERS OF
THE GOVERNMENT HAD UNDERTAKEN. FINALLY, MARTIN SAID THAT
AS TIME PASSED BASHIR FEARED THAT EVEN IF HE WANTED TO
MAKE CHANGES THE NIF HAD SO INFILTRATED ALL ELEMENTS OF
THE SUDANESE POWER STRUCTURE THAT HE COULD NOT BE SURE
THAT ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE THINGS SUCCEED. MARTIN SAID THAT
VIRTUALLY EVERYONE AROUND BASHIR WAS A NIF LOYALIST AND
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF BASHIR'S ATTEMPT TO ASSERT
AUTHORITY WILL BE HIS ASSASSINATION.


3. MARTIN SAID BASHIR'S NEXT STEP WOULD BE TO PURGE
SUDAN'S SECURITY SERVICE OF THOSE LOYAL TO OUSTED CHIEF
NAFI ALI NAFI (REPORTING IN OTHER CHANNELS INDICATES THIS
MAY ALREADY HAVE BEGUN). AS HAS BEEN HINTED IN THE LOCAL
MEDIA, MARTIN ALSO PREDICTED FURTHER CHANGES IN THE
GOVERNMENT.


4. COMMENT: COL. MARTIN HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT CONTACTS
WITH THE SUDANESE ARMY. AS MEMBER OF BASHIR'S
REVOLUTIONARY COMMAND COUNCIL HE WAS KNOWN BE CLOSE TO THE
PRESIDENT. THE FACT THAT MARTIN HAS CONSORTED WITH U.S.
DIPLOMATS AND OTHERS NOT SEEN TO BE FRIENDLY TO THIS
REGIME WITHOUT HARASSMENT OR HINDERENCE ALSO INDICATES A
HIGH LEVEL PATRON. MARTIN'S VIEW OF THE IMMEDIATE
POST-COUP RELATIONSHIP VIOLATES CONVENTIONAL WISDOM BUT
THE REALITY IS NOT KNOWN WITH CERTAINTY. HIS INFORMATION
HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN ENTIRELY ACCURATE (E.G., LAST YEAR HE
TOLD US THAT THE GOS HAD LAUNCHED A THREE PRONGED
OFFENSIVE WHEN, IN FACT, IT HAD ONLY PLANNED SUCH AN
OFFENSIVE). WE HAVE NO CORROBORATION, BUT WE BELIEVE
THERE IS AT LEAST A KERNEL OF TRUTH IN WHAT HE HAS TOLD US
AND THEREFORE REPORT IT.


5. SINCE THE WHOLESALE LEADERSHIP CHANGES IN THE SECURITY
SERVICES AND THE LESS SWEEPING CABINET CHANGES ON AUGUST
12 (SEE REFTEL),WE HAVE SENSED THAT FISSURES MIGHT BE
OCCURING IN WHAT HAD BEEN VIEWED AS A MONOLITHIC GOS/NIF
REGIME. BASHIR'S ANNOUNCEMENT YESTERDAY THAT ALL
POLITICAL DETAINEES WOULD BE RELEASED AND THAT ELECTIONS
FOR BOTH PARLIAMENT AND THE PRESIDENCY WOULD TAKE PLACE
NEXT YEAR ADD TO THAT SENSE.


5. WE CANNOT, OF COURSE, BE CERTAIN WHAT PROMPTED BASHIR
TO ACT AFTER SIX YEARS OF NIF MISBEHAVIOR BUT THE MUBARAK
ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT COULD WELL HAVE DONE IT. BASHIR
KNOWS THAT AT SOME POINT THE ETHIOPIANS WILL GO PUBLIC.
HE COULD SIMPLY BE PREPARING THE GROUND FOR A DEFENSE THAT
WOULD ADMIT PROBLEMS BUT CLAIM THEY ARE SOLVED, OR HE
COULD BE AFTER A MORE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN HIS
GOVERNMENT. IF THE LATTER IS TRUE, HIS LIFE MAY WELL BE
IN DANGER. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.


CARNEY