SYRIANS SEE PLOTS AND PRESSURE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 005515


LONDON FOR TUELLER; PARIS FOR ALLEGRONE

E.O. 12356: DECL: 10/19/2005
TAGS: PREL SY US IS LE
SUBJECT: SYRIANS SEE PLOTS AND PRESSURE,
QUESTION U.S. MOTIVES


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. IN THE CONTINUING ABSENCE OF FOREIGN
MINISTER SHARA IN CARTAGENA AND NEW YORK, SENIOR
MFA OFFICIALS HAVE TAKEN EVERY AVAILABLE
OPPORTUNITY SHORT OF CALLING US IN TO VENT THEIR
SPLEENS OVER WHAT THEY SEE AS RENEWED ATTEMPTS TO
PUT PRESSURE ON SYRIA AND WEAKEN ITS POSITION
VIS-A-VIS ISRAEL. OUR MFA INTERLOCUTORS HAVE
FOCUSED ON TWO RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: (A) WHAT THEY
VIEW AS AN "UNBALANCED" U.S. POSTURE ON RECENT
EVENTS IN SOUTHERN LEBANON AND (B) "TENDENTIOUS"
ACCUSATIONS THAT COUNTERFEIT U.S. CURRENCY MAY BE
PRODUCED IN SYRIA OR LEBANON. SHARA WOULD
CERTAINLY ASSOCIATE HIMSELF WITH THEIR VIEWS, AND
THIS MAY ADD AN EDGE TO ANY FUTURE HIGH-LEVEL
CONTACTS. END SUMMARY.


3. ON OCTOBER 18, DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER SHAKKUR
AND MFA AMERICAS DIRECTOR JAZZAR SOUGHT THE
AMBASSADOR OUT SEPARATELY AT A RECEPTION TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT (A) WHAT THEY VIEW AS AN
"UNBALANCED" U.S. POSTURE ON RECENT EVENTS IN
SOUTHERN LEBANON, AS EXEMPLIFIED IN THE
DEPARTMENT'S OCTOBER 16 PRESS BRIEFING, AND (B)
"TENDENTIOUS" ACCUSATIONS THAT COUNTERFEIT U.S.
CURRENCY MAY BE PRODUCED IN SYRIA OR LEBANON AND
PROTECTED BY THE SYRIAN MILITARY, AS "MANY AT THE
STATE DEPARTMENT" CONSIDER TO BE A "FACT,"
ACCORDING TO AN ARTICLE IN THE OCTOBER 23 ISSUE OF
"THE NEW YORKER." THEY REACTED TO BOTH
DEVELOPMENTS ALONG SIMILAR LINES.


4. ON OUR POSTURE WITH REGARD TO SOUTHERN
LEBANON, AS ENUNCIATED OCTOBER 16, THEY ARGUED
THAT:

-- NO ONE SHOULD FORGET -- AS IT WOULD APPEAR MANY
HAVE -- THAT SOUTHERN LEBANON REMAINS UNDER
ISRAELI OCCUPATION, THAT HIZBALLAH IS EXERCISING
THE LEGITIMATE RIGHT OF LEBANESE TO RESIST
OCCUPATION FORCES, AND THAT THIS RIGHT IS BEING
EXERCISED AGAINST THE BACKGROUND OF DAILY SHELLING
AND BOMBING OF LEBANESE VILLAGES AND NUMEROUS
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.

-- HIZBALLAH, AS A FORCE THAT CRYSTALLIZES
LEBANESE OPPOSITION TO ISRAELI OCCUPATION,
EXPRESSES THIS OPPOSITION INDEPENDENTLY OF OUTSIDE
ACTORS.

-- SYRIA RECOGNIZES THE RIGHT OF LEBANESE TO
RESIST THE ISRAELI OCCUPATION THROUGH ATTACKS ON
ISRAELI MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE OCCUPIED ZONE.
AT THE SAME TIME, IT RECOGNIZES THAT AN ESCALATION
OF THE SITUATION COULD HARM THE PEACE PROCESS.

-- SYRIA DOES HAVE INFLUENCE WITH HIZBALLAH AND
HAS USED IT ON MANY OCCASIONS IN THE PAST, WHEN
VIOLENCE HAS ESCALATED TO A DANGEROUS LEVEL AND
WHEN SYRIA WAS SATISFIED THAT WE WERE URGING
RESTRAINT ON THE ISRAELIS TO TAMP DOWN WHAT WE
HAVE TRADITIONALLY CALLED "THE CONTINUING CYCLE OF
VIOLENCE."

-- ON THIS OCCASION, HOWEVER, WE CHOSE TO SOLICIT
SYRIAN ASSISTANCE "IN AN INCOMPREHENSIBLE
MANNER." FIRST, OF ALL, WE DID IT IN PUBLIC.
SECOND OF ALL, WE GROUNDED OUR SOLICITATION IN
WHAT WAS, FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, THE
ISRAELI VIEW OF EVENTS, ABANDONING OUR TRADITIONAL

-- AND MINIMALLY ACCEPTABLE -- LINE ABOUT "THE
CYCLE OF VIOLENCE," CALLING LEBANESE RESISTANCE
"TERRORISM," ESCHEWING ANY MENTION OF THE CONTEXT
OF THE ISRAELI OCCUPATION, FOCUSING EXCLUSIVELY ON
ISRAELI LOSSES, AND FOCUSING ON SYRIA AS THE PARTY
PRINCIPALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTROLLING THE LEVEL
OF VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.

-- ALL OF THIS LED SYRIAN LEADERS TO QUESTION ONCE
AGAIN THE IMPARTIALITY OF THE U.S. AS "AN HONEST
BROKER" IN THE PEACE PROCESS AND TO SUSPECT THAT
"CERTAIN PEOPLE" HAD ENGINEERED A CHANGE IN OUR
STANCE.


5. ON THE ALLEGATION THAT SYRIA MIGHT BE THE
LOCUS OF COUNTERFEITING, THE AMBASSADOR'S
INTERLOCUTORS NOTED THAT:

-- NOT ONCE DURING THE SUCCESSIVE VISITS OF EXPERT
DELEGATIONS TO SYRIA HAD THIS POSSIBILITY BEEN
MENTIONED.

-- SYRIA HAD NO CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE NOTES OF THE
HIGH QUALITY BEING CITED. IF IT DID, IT WOULD
HAVE NO NEED TO HAVE ITS OWN CURRENCY PRINTED
ABROAD.

-- FURTHERMORE, SYRIA HAD NO INTEREST IN BRINGING
THE INTEGRITY OF U.S. CURRENCY INTO QUESTION,
"SINCE EVERY SYRIAN PROBABLY HOLDS QUANTITIES OF
DOLLARS."

-- AS A MATTER OF POLICY, SYRIA WAS DEEPLY OPPOSED
TO COUNTERFEITING OF ANY KIND AND WAS SUPPORTING
ONGOING LEBANESE EFFORTS TO TRACK DOWN
COUNTERFEITERS ACTIVE IN LEBANON.

-- AGAIN, AS WITH OUR "NEW STANCE" ON SOUTHERN
LEBANON, SYRIAN LEADERS HAD TO QUESTION THE
MOTIVES OF THOSE WHO HAD FLOATED THIS TENDENTIOUS
ALLEGATION.


6. THE AMBASSADOR NOTED TO SHAKKUR AND JAZZAR
THAT WE REMAINED OPPOSED TO VIOLENCE AND COMMITTED
TO NEGOTIATIONS AS A WAY OF BRINGING THE ISRAELI
PRESENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON TO AN END, THAT
INDEED WE LOOKED TO SYRIA TO HELP CALM THE
SITUATION, AND THAT WE WERE UNDOUBTEDLY LOOKING TO
THE ISRAELIS TO DO THE SAME. NEITHER WAS
CONVINCED, CITING ONCE AGAIN THE "ONE-SIDED"
STANCE WE HAD TAKEN ON OCTOBER 16 AND THE
INAPPROPRIATENESS OF USING A PUBLIC FORUM TO SEEK
SYRIAN HELP.


7. THE AMBASSADOR ALSO NOTED THAT, TO THE BEST OF
HIS INFORMATION, WE DID NOT BELIEVE THAT SYRIA WAS
THE LOCUS OF COUNTERFEITING OF U.S. CURRENCY AND
THAT THE SOURCES CITED BY "THE NEW YORKER" WERE
EITHER MISINFORMED OR SPECULATING. IT HAD BEEN
AGREED AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF OUR TWO
GOVERNMENTS THAT WE WOULD WORK TOGETHER TO COUNTER
THIS ACTIVITY, AND WE LOOKED FORWARD TO CONTINUING
TO DO SO.


8. SHAKKUR CLOSED OFF THE DISCUSSION BY
EMPHASIZING THAT, IF ANYONE IN THE U.S. THOUGHT
THAT PRESSURE TACTICS WOULD WORK WITH SYRIA, THEY
COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG. PRESSURE MERELY
INCREASED THE RESOLVE OF SYRIAN LEADERS TO STAY
THE COURSE. PRESIDENT CLINTON AND SECRETARY
CHRISTOPHER UNDERSTOOD THE PROPER WAY TO DEAL WITH
THE SYRIAN LEADERSHIP, BUT "OTHERS" EVIDENTLY DID
NOT.


9. ON OCTOBER 19, JAZZAR WENT ON THE OFFENSIVE
AGAIN DURING A MEETING WITH POLOFF ON THE UPCOMING
CUBAN RESOLUTION AT THE UNGA. HE DESCRIBED OUR
OCTOBER 16 STATEMENT AS "HORRIBLE" AND ASKED AGAIN
WHY WE HAD MADE SUCH A MAJOR CHANGE IN OUR
CUSTOMARY LINE ON THIS ISSUE. "WHY IS THE U.S.
ASKING SYRIA TO USE ITS INFLUENCE WITH HIZBALLAH
TO PREVENT LEGITIMATE RESISTANCE TO ISRAEL'S
OCCUPATION OF SOUTHERN LEBANON? IT SOUNDS AS IF
YOU HAVE ENDORSED THE OCCUPATION AND THAT YOU
CONDEMN ALL RESISTANCE TO IT." JAZZAR WENT ON TO
SAY THAT "SYRIA CAN SWALLOW, ALTHOUGH WITH A
GRIMACE," OUR CUSTOMARY RESPONSE TO QUESTIONS ON
THIS ISSUE, BUT THE LATEST STATEMENT WAS A MAJOR
DEPARTURE.


10. POLOFF READ JAZZAR THE DEPARTMENT'S GUIDANCE
ON RECENT VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN LEBANON (STATE
254743). JAZZAR REPLIED THAT "THIS IS YOUR USUAL
STATEMENT, BUT IT IS NOT WHAT MR. BURNS SAID. HE
SAID MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WHAT HE SAID GIVES
HIZBALLAH MORE CREDIBILITY. THE RESISTANCE IS NOT
ATTACKING CHILDREN OR CIVILIANS. IT IS ATTACKING
MILITARY TARGETS -- THE ISRAELI OCCUPATION FORCE.
THAT IS NOT TERRORISM. SYRIA WILL NOT TAKE STEPS
TO STOP LEGITIMATE RESISTANCE TO OCCUPATION."


11. AN OCTOBER 18 EDITORIAL IN THE
ENGLISH-LANGUAGE "SYRIA TIMES" ECHOED THESE
THEMES: THE DEPARTMENTAL SPOKESMAN'S OCTOBER 16
STATEMENT "WAS NOT IN LINE WITH THE DECLARED U.S.
POLICY THAT SUPPORTED THE IMPLEMENTATION OF U.N.
RESOLUTIONS." REFLECTING THE FEELING THAT THE
STATEMENT DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS ONES, THE
EDITORIAL CONTINUED THAT "PRESSURE SHOULD NOT BE
DIRECTED AGAINST THE VICTIMS, BUT AGAINST THE
OPPRESSORS." PREDICTABLY, IT WENT ON TO SAY THAT
"OPERATIONS AGAINST OCCUPATION ARE A KIND OF
SELF-DEFENSE, NO MATTER WHAT THE U.S. STATE
DEPARTMENT THINKS OR SAYS."


12. COMMENT: SHARA WOULD CERTAINLY ASSOCIATE
HIMSELF WITH SUCH VIEWS. COMBINED WITH STANDING
SYRIAN COMPLAINTS ABOUT BEING SINGLED OUT FOR
BLAME OVER THE IMPASSE IN THE SYRIAN TRACK, "WHEN
RABIN HIMSELF DOES NOT WANT TO MOVE," AND
LINGERING SYRIANS SUSPICIONS ABOUT OUR PATTERN OF
CONSULTATIONS ON IRAQ, THESE NEW CONCERNS MAY WELL
ADD AN EDGE TO FUTURE HIGH-LEVEL CONTACTS BETWEEN
OUR TWO GOVERNMENTS.


13. THE BEST WAY TO GET SYRIA TO REIN HIZBALLAH
IN HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO USE PRIVATE APPROACHES FIRST
AND THEN BUTTRESS THEM WITH PUBLIC STATEMENTS THAT
CALL ON ALL PARTIES WITH A ROLE IN SOUTHERN
LEBANON TO HELP CALM THE SITUATION. EVEN IF THE
SYRIANS FIND IT IN THEIR INTEREST TO COUNSEL
RESTRAINT ON HIZBALLAH ON THIS OCCASION, OUR
LATEST STATEMENTS HAVE RUBBED THEM IN ALL THE
WRONG WAYS, INCREASING THEIR FEARS THAT THEY ARE
BEING PRESSURED AND ISOLATED AND POTENTIALLY
MAKING THEM EVEN MORE RIGID IN DISCUSSING THE
PEACE PROCESS.


14. SIMILARLY, THE SPECULATIVE STATEMENTS OF
UNNAMED DEPARTMENTAL OFFICIALS ON SYRIA'S ALLEGED
ROLE IN PRINTING COUNTERFEIT U.S. CURRENCY WILL
NOT ONLY RENDER FUTURE COOPERATION IN TRACKING THE
CULPRITS DOWN MORE DIFFICULT, BUT WILL ALSO FEED
THE SAME FEARS OF PRESSURE AND ISOLATION.

ROSS