QADHAFI THREAT TO EXPEL PALESTINIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 003413


PARIS FOR ALLEGRONE; LONDON FOR TUELLER

E.O. 12356: DECL:9/8/05
TAGS: KPAL PREL PREF PGOV LE LY
SUBJECT: QADHAFI THREAT TO EXPEL PALESTINIANS
STOKES LEBANESE PARANOIA RE "IMPLANTATION"


1. (U) LIBYAN LEADER QADHAFI'S THREAT TO EXPEL A
REPORTED 50,000 PALESTINIAN WORKERS FROM LIBYA
HAS PRODUCED LOCAL REPORTS THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE
OR WILL BE COMING TO LEBANON. ACCORDING TO
PRESS REPORTS, FATAH DISSIDENT MUNIR AL-MUQDAH
HAS CLAIMED THAT 2,000 SUCH REFUGEES ALREADY
HAVE RETURNED, MOSTLY TO CAMPS IN THE SOUTH.
AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE, WHOSE LOCAL OFFICE IS
OFTEN SENSATIONAL AND UNRELIABLE, PUTS THE
NUMBER AT ONLY 400.


2. (U) WHATEVER THE TRUE NUMBERS OF
PALESTINIANS WHO MAY OR MAY NOT HAVE TRICKLED
BACK FROM LIBYA IN RECENT WEEKS, THE GOL IS
SENDING SIGNALS THAT IT WILL NOT BE, IN THE TERM
USED IN LOCAL NEWSPAPERS, THE "DUMPING GROUND"
FOR PALESTINIANS EXPELLED FROM OTHER REGIONAL
STATES. THUS THE GOL HAS REPORTEDLY ISSUED
ORDERS TO PORT AUTHORITIES TO DENY ENTRY TO
SHIPS CARRYING PALESTINIANS FROM LIBYA.
ACCORDING TO VAGUE RUMORS--A STAPLE OF THE LOCAL
POLITICAL DIET--FOUR SHIPS CARRYING PALESTINIANS
HAVE DEPARTED TRIPOLI HEADED TOWARD LEBANON.
OTHER REPORTS SAY THAT FM BUWAYZ TOOK A TOUGH
LINE ON THE ISSUE WITH VISITING PLO POLITICAL
DIRECTOR FAROUQ QADDOUMI IN THEIR SEPTEMBER 5
MEETING.


3. (C) COMMENT: THE GOL IS SEEKING TO SEND OUT
SIGNALS OF "TOUGHNESS" ON THESE REPORTS, BUT IT
IS UNCLEAR TO US HOW IT COULD OR WOULD STOP THE
RETURN OF POSSIBLE MIGRANTS WHO HOLD VALID
LEBANESE TRAVEL DOCUMENTS. FOR PALESTINIANS
WITHOUT SUCH DOCUMENTS, HOWEVER, WE ARE SURE
THAT--UNLESS SYRIA ORDERED OTHERWISE--THE GOL
WOULD DENY ENTRY (AS WITH THE HAMAS ACTIVITS
EXPELLED BY ISRAEL IN 1992, WHO WERE ISOLATED TO
A MAKESHIFT CAMP AT MARJ AL-ZAHOUR IN THE SOUTH).


4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: AS PREVIOUS
REPORTING HAS DETAILED, IF THERE IS ONE ISSUE
THAT CAN FORGE SOMETHING APPROACHING A NATIONAL
CONSENSUS IN FRACTIOUS LEBANON, IT IS A NEGATIVE
ATTITUDE TOWARD RESETTLEMENT OF PALESTINIANS ON
LOCAL SOIL. THE ISSUE, WITH ITS THREAT OF
DISTURBING THE TENUOUS SECTARIAN BALANCE AS IT
HELPED DO IN 1975, EVOKES DEEP FEAR AND STRONG
EMOTION. ESPECIALLY IN A POLITICAL SEASON WHEN
PRESIDENT HRAWI AVIDLY IS CURRYING MARONITE
FAVOR AND SHI'A SPEAKER BIRRI IS TRYING TO
ASSERT HIS POWER AGAINST SUNNI PM HARIRI AND HIS
HIZBALLAH RIVALS, WE CAN EXPECT A HARD GOL LINE
ON ANY PALESTINIAN SETTLEMENT ISSUE THAT MIGHT
ARISE. END COMMENT.


5. (C) EMBASSY IS DISCREETLY FOLLOWING UP WITH
LOCAL UNRWA CONTACTS TO SEE IF WE CAN SEPARATE
FACT FROM FEARFUL FANTASY.

SCHLICHER