AMAL PERSPECTIVES ON HIZBALLAH CHANGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002749


E.0.12356:DECL:07/12/00
TAGS: PGOV PTER LE
SUBJECT: AMAL PERSPECTIVES ON HIZBALLAH CHANGES

REFTEL: A) BEIRUT 2725, B) BEIRUT 2659


1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. HIZBALLAH ANNOUNCED THE RE-ELECTION OF
ITS TWO TOP LEADERS AND SOME MODEST STRUCTURAL
CHANGES, BUT HAS NOT RELEASED NAMES OF NEW
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL MEMBERS, OSTENSIBLY ON SECURITY
GROUNDS. A SENIOR AMAL OFFICIAL CONFIRMED HIS
PARTY'S UNDERSTANDING THAT HIZBALLAH ULTRA-EXTREMIST
SUBHI TUFAYLI IS OUT. THE AMAL SOURCE SAID THE
CHANGE CAME AMIDST A WIDER SHIFT IN POWER WITHIN
HIZBALLAH, AWAY FROM BIQA' VALLEY CADRES TOWARD
SOUTHERN LEADERS. WHILE THE CHANGES WITHIN HIZBALLAH
ARE SEEN HERE AS FURTHER STEPS PREPARATORY TO AN
EVENTUAL TRANSITION FROM MILITIA TO LEGITIMATE
POLITICAL PARTY, AMAL BELIEVES (OR AT LEAST HOPES)
THAT HIZBALLAH IS MISTAKEN IN ITS CONFIDENCE OF
SYRIAN BACKING FOR ITS POLITICAL AMBITIONS IN AN ERA
OF PEACE. END SUMMARY.


3. HIZBALLAH HAS ANNOUNCED THE RE-ELECTION OF
SECRETARY GENERAL HASSAN NASRALLAH AND DEPUTY SECGEN
NA'IM QASSIM AT A GENERAL CONVENTION EARLIER THIS
MONTH, BUT WILL NOT RELEASE THE MEMBERSHIP OF THE
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL (MAJLIS ASH-SHURA). A PARTY
SPOKESMAN CITED THE ISRAELI THREAT AS REASON FOR
SECRECY. THERE WAS NO WORD ON WHETHER NASRALLAH HAS
RETURNED FROM IRAN, WHERE HE WAS PRESUMABLY VETTING
THE CONVENTION RESULTS.


4. MUHAMMAD 'UBAYD, POLITICAL ADVISOR FOR AMAL
MOVEMENT AND SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE INFORMATION
MINISTRY, CONFIRMED TO US THAT SUBHI TUFAYLI, FORMER
PARTY SECGEN AND A RECOGNIZED LEADER OF THE MOST
RADICAL TREND IN HIZBALLAH, DID NOT WIN RE-ELECTION
TO THE COUNCIL. 'UBAYD SAW TUFAYLI'S OUSTER AS PART
OF A TREND AT THE CONVENTION TO EASE OUT BIQA' VALLEY
ELEMENTS IN FAVOR OF SOUTHERNERS (THE HOME BASE OF
NA S RALLAH ) .


5. THE BIQA'-SOUTH FAULT LINE COINCIDES GENERALLY
WITH A (COMPARATIVE) HAWK-DOVE SPLIT INSIDE THE
PARTY. HIZBALLAH HAS A STRONGER BASE IN THE BIQA'
AND AMONG SOUTHERN SUBURB RESIDENTS ORIGINALLY FROM
THE BIQA', THAN IT DOES IN THE SOUTH, WHERE POLITICAL
LOYALITIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO REST WITH AMAL AND THE
OLD LANDED FAMILIES. HIZBALLAH HAS WORKED TO MAKE
IN-ROADS THERE, BUT THE UNPOPULARITY OF THE
RESISTANCE IN MANY QUARTERS ALONG THE FRONT LINES HAS
UNDERMINED THOSE EFFORTS.


6. CONSOLIDATION OF HIZBALLAH LEADERSHIP IN SOUTHERN
HANDS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THOSE
FORCES WITHIN THE PARTY WHO ARE BRACED FOR AN END TO
MILITIA ACTIVITIES, AND WANT TO PREPARE FOR MORE
NORMAL POLITICAL ACTIVISM. AMAL OFFICIAL 'UBAYD
CLAIMED TO US, HOWEVER, THAT HIZBALLAH'S MAINSTREAM
HAS OVER-ESTIMATED SYRIAN WILLINGNESS TO PROTECT THE
PARTY ONCE PEACE WITH ISRAEL IS REACHED. COMMENT:
THIS OBSERVATION COULD BE WISHFUL THINKING ON THE
PART OF AMAL, WHICH IS STRUGGLING WITH HIZBALLAH FOR
SHI'A LOYALTIES. IF DAMASCUS IS TRUE TO FORM, IT
WOULD MOST LIKELY NOURISH BUT CONFINE HIZBALLAH, AS A
TOOL TO KEEP SYRIA'S PRINCIPAL SHI'A ALLY, NABIH
BERRI, IN LINE. END COMMENT.


7. REF A CONVEYS OTHER DETAILS ON CHANGES MADE
WITHIN HIZBALLAH, AS REPORTED BY IBRAHIM AL-AMIN IN
"AL-SAFIR" NEWSPAPER. IN SHORT, TYRE-BASED HIZBALLAH
MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT MUHAMMAD RA'D BECAME HEAD OF THE
POLITICAL COUNCIL (THE RENAMED POLITBURO),BUMPING
OUT HUSSEIN KHALIL. KHALIL WAS NAMED POLITICAL
ADVISOR TO NASRALLAH, IN WHAT LOOKS LIKE A
COME-DOWN. A JIHADI COUNCIL WAS MADE TO CONSOLIDATE
CONTROL OVER ALL SECURITY AND MILITARY OPERATIONS,
UNDER SOUTHERNER HASHIM SAFI-AD-DIN. THE BLOC OF
HIZBALLAH MPS GAINED A MORE FORMAL ROLE WITHIN THE
PARTY WITH THE CREATION OF THE "COUNCIL OF THE
PARLIAMENTARY BLOC." A LEBANESE REPRESENTATIVE OF
AL-KHAMEIN'I, THE BIQA'-BASED MUHAMMAD YAZBEK,
RETAINED A PLACE IN THE EXECUTIVE BOARD OF THE
CONSULTATIVE COUNCIL.


8. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH, PAPERS ALSO REPORT TRENDS
WHICH SUGGEST BUSINESS AS USUAL FOR HIZBALLAH: THE
OFTEN INACCURATE DAILY "NIDA' AL-WATAN" REPORTED THE
RE-ELECTION OF IMAD MUGHNIYAH AS THE CENTRAL SECURITY
CHIEF, WITH FOUR ASSISTANTS NAMED MUSTAFA BADR
AD-DIN, TALAL HAMIYAH, HAJ MUHAMMAD AHMAZ, AND
HUSAYNI ATRYSSI. THE MORE RESPECTED "AN-NAHAR"
REPORTS THAT HIZBALLAH HAS RECEIVED MORE
SOPHISTICATED WEAPONS FOR USE AGAINST THE ISRAELIS,
BUT OFFERS NO FURTHER CLARIFICATION.

SCHLICHER