TFKN01: DEATH OF KIM IL SUNG ABSORBS BOTH KOREAS

S E C R E T STATE 183691 TOSEC 140193

FOLLOWING SEOUL 05848 DATED 11 JUL 94 SENT ACTION SECSTATE
INFO GENEVA, DUBLIN, BEIJING, TOKYO, MOSCOW, USUN NEW YORK,
USVIENNA, LONDON, PARIS, SECDEF WASHDC, JOINTSTAFF WASHDC,
CHJUSMAG SEOUL KOR, SACINCUNC SEOUL KOR, USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI,
AND USCINCUNC SEOUL KOR REPEATED FOR YOUR INFO
QUOTE

S E C R E T SEOUL 05848

GENEVA FOR AS GALLUCCI; DUBLIN FOR AMB LANEY; USVIENNA FOR
UNVIE

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL KS KN
SUBJECT: TFKN01: DEATH OF KIM IL SUNG ABSORBS BOTH KOREAS

REF: A. SEOUL 57989 B. TOKYO 9565


1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. THE DEATH OF KIM IL SUNG HAS MONOPOLIZED
MEDIA, GOVERNMENT, AND PRIVATE DISCUSSIONS IN SOUTH KOREA
SINCE THE ANNOUNCEMENT ON JULY 9. ROKG POLICY PLANNERS
CONTINUE TO DISCUSS OFFICIAL REACTIONS, INCLUDING AT A
PRIME MINISTER-CHAIRED POLICY COORDINATION MEETING TODAY.
FM HAN SUNG JOO TOLD US THAT THE ROKG EXPECTS PYONGYANG TO
SEEK A SOUTH-NORTH SUMMIT AS SOON AS THE SUCCESSION IS
SETTLED. THE ROK WILL BE WILLING TO DISCUSS ARRANGEMENTS
FOR A SUMMIT AFTER THAT HAPPENS. DOMESTIC POLITICAL
REACTION HAS SUPPORTED THE ADMINISTRATION TO DATE, WITH
MOST POLITICIANS STATING THEIR BELIEF THAT KIM JONG IL
WILL CONTINUE THE POLICIES OF HIS FATHER, IN ORDER TO LEND
LEGITIMACY TO HIS RULE. END SUMMARY.

FOREIGN MINISTER HAN'S VIEWS
--------------


3. AS EXPECTED BOTH KOREAS CONTINUE TO BE FULLY ABSORBED
BY THE AFTERMATH OF THE DEATH OF KIM IL SUNG. DURING A
LATE AFTERNOON MEETING WITH CHARGE (SEPTEL),FM HAN SUNG
JOO CONFIRMED ROKG RECEIPT OF DPRK WORKERS PARTY SECRETARY
KIM YOUNG SUN'S LETTER EXPRESSING DPRK DESIRE TO POSTPONE
THE PLANNED JUNE 25-27 SUMMIT. HAN TOLD CHARGE THAT THE
ROKG IN ITS RESPONSE WILL EXPRESS ITS COMMITMENT TO THE
"SPIRIT AND PRINCIPLE" OF THE SUMMIT AGREEMENT, AND THAT
ONCE THE SITUATION STABILIZES AND THE ROKG KNOWS WHO IS IN
CHARGE IN NORTH KOREA THE ROKG WILL BE WILLING TO DISCUSS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUMMIT. HAN PREDICTED THAT THE NORTH
KOREANS WOULD WANT TO QUICKLY ESTABLISH A DATE FOR THE
SUMMIT; THE ROK WOULD NOT BE IN A HURRY, HE SAID, ALTHOUGH
SEOUL WOULD NOT REFUSE OR UNNECESSARILY DELAY SUCH A
MEETING.


4. IN RESPONSE TO CHARGE'S QUERY, HAN SAID THAT THE ROKG
HAD NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT SOMEONE OTHER THAN KIM JONG
IL WOULD ASSUME POWER IN NORTH KOREA. HE ADDED, HOWEVER,
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KIM MIGHT ASSIGN RESPONSIBILITY
FOR MEETING FOREIGNERS TO SOMEONE ELSE, GIVEN KIM'S
COMPLETE LACK OF EXPERIENCE IN THIS REGARD. IN THIS
CONTEXT, HAN NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SPECULATION
THAT THERE MIGHT BE A SEPARATE HEAD OF STATE VERSUS LEADER
OF THE PARTY, THE ROKG INCLINATION WAS TO BELIEVE THAT KIM
WOULD ASSUME BOTH POSITIONS.


5. FINALLY, HAN COMMENTED ON THE EXISTENCE OF
AUTHORITATIVE VOICES IN THE KOREAN GOVERNMENT WHO WOULD
PREFER A MORE MEASURED USG APPROACH TOWARD NORTH KOREA TO
AVOID ENABLING PYONGYANG TO FEEL OVERCONFIDENT ABOUT ITS
NEW POSITION IN THE AFTERMATH OF KIM IL SUNG'S DEATH.
STRESSING THE UNUSUAL PSYCHOLOGY OF THE REGIME IN
PYONGYANG, HAN CITED THE EXAMPLE OF OUR EXTENSION OF
CONDOLENCES TO THE KOREAN PEOPLE AS SOMETHING THE REGIME
MIGHT MISREAD IN A WAY TO DIMINISH THE RESPECT PYONGYANG
MIGHT HOLD FOR US IN OUR FUTURE DEALINGS. HAN ALSO CITED
HIS VIEW THAT IT WAS USEFUL FOR CHINA TO MAINTAIN GOOD
RELATIONS WITH THE NEW REGIME.


6. COMMENT. HAN IS FEELING SOME PRESSURE, PERHAPS FROM
MND, IN CONNECTION WITH OUR EXPRESSION OF CONDOLENCES. HE
DESCRIBED THE KOREANS AS SPLIT BETWEEN THOSE WHO REVILE
KIM AND THOSE WHO ARE MORE FORWARD-LOOKING. THE FORMER
MAY BLAME HIM FOR NOT PREVENTING ANY EXPRESSION OF
CONDOLENCE FROM THE U.S. HAN'S COVERSATION WITH SECRETARY
OF STATE CHRISTOPER HELPED HIM, AND THERE MAY BE AN EFFORT
TO HAVE PRESIDENT KIM SPEAK TO PRESIDENT CLINTON ON THE
TELEPHONE LATER IN THE WEEK. END COMMENT.

WHAT NEXT
--------------


7. SOUTH KOREAN MEDIA HAVE CONCENTRATED ON ALL ASPECTS OF
THE ISSUE TO THE VIRTUAL EXCLUSION OF OTHER STORIES, WHILE
THE NORTH IS STEEPED IN MOURNING AND, PRESUMABLY,
BEHIND-THE-SCENES CONSOLIDATION OF POLITICAL POWER AROUND
HEIR-APPARENT KIM JONG IL. THE DPRK HAS YET TO MAKE A
MAJOR POLICY STATEMENT SINCE THE SENIOR KIM'S DEATH.
ANALYSTS IN SOUTH KOREA PREDICTED SUCH A STATEMENT WILL BE
MADE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


8. KIM IL SUNG'S FUNERAL WILL BE HELD ON JUL 17, WITH NO
FOREIGN DELEGATIONS EXPECTED TO BE INVITED OR ALLOWED.
THE DPRK REFUSED AN OFFER OF A "CONDOLENCE VISIT" FROM
PRESIDENT CARTER (THEN IN TOKYO) ON SATURDAY (REF B),
ALTHOUGH YONHAP REPORTED JULY 11 THAT THE DPRK INTENDS TO
INVITE PRESIDENT CARTER TO THE FUNERAL.) A SENIOR ROKG
OFFICIAL SPECULATED THAT THE DPRK MAY EXCLUDE FOREIGN
DELEGATIONS BECAUSE IT IS AFRAID THAT IF INVITED, THEY
WILL NOT COME, THUS EXPOSING TO THE NORTH KOREAN PEOPLE
THE LIE OF KIM IL SUNG AS A WORLD-REVERED GREAT LEADER.

KIM JONG IL SUCCESSION PROGRESSES
--------------


9. KIM JONG IL HAS NOT YET APPEARED IN PUBLIC, NOR HAS
THERE BEEN A FORMAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF HIS SUCCESSION TO THE
LEADERSHIP OF THE DPRK. NEVERTHELESS, INDICATIONS
CONTINUE TO PILE UP THAT THE TRANSFER OF POWER TO KIM IL
SUNG'S OLDEST SON AND HEIR APPARENT IS PROCEEDING. DPRK
MEDIA HAVE PRODUCED A STEADY STREAM OF LAUDATORY COMMENTS
ON THE JUNIOR KIM, AS WELL AS PUBLIC PLEDGES OF LOYALTY BY
VARIOUS OFFICIALS OF THE DPRK GOVERNMENT AND PARTY
HIERARCHY.


10. ALL MEMBERS OF THE WORKERS PARTY CENTRAL COMMITTEE
AND THE SUPREME PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY WERE TOLD TO GATHER IN
PYONGYANG BY JULY 11 FOR CONDOLENCES. IT WOULD BE
REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT THEY WILL ELECT KIM JONG IL TO
THE TWO TOP POSITIONS OF PRESIDENT AND WORKERS PARTY
SECRETARY. (OF COURSE, HE ALREADY HOLDS THE THIRD TOP
POSITION OF CHAIRMAN OF THE MILITARY AFFAIRS COMMITTEE OF
THE WORKERS PARTY.)

NORTH-SOUTH SUMMIT "POSTPONED"
--------------


11. ON THE MORNING OF JULY 11, THE DPRK SENT A VERY BRIEF
MESSAGE TO THE ROKG STATING THAT IN LIGHT OF KIM IL SUNG'S
DEATH, THE SUMMIT "COULD NOT BUT BE POSTPONED." THE
MESSAGE WAS SENT TO ROK DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER FOR
UNIFICATION LEE HONG-KU FROM HIS COUNTERPART AT THE
HIGH-LEVEL TALKS OF JUNE 28, DPRK WORKERS PARTY SECRETARY
KIM YOUNG-SUN.


12. DURING A BRIEFING FOR THE DIPLOMATIC CORPS HELD ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ASSISTANT MINISTER CHOI DONG JIN
STRESSED THAT THE ROKG'S BASIC PRINCIPLES ON PEACE,
SECURITY AND COOPERATION ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA REMAIN
THE SAME, AND THE ROK LEADERSHIP HOPES THAT BOTH SIDES CAN
RESUME PLANNING FOR A SUMMIT "IF OR WHEN A NEW ENVIRONMENT
IS CREATED THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO HOLDING A SUMMIT."


13. ROKG PUBLIC STATEMENTS HAVE CONTINUALLY STRESSED THE
GOVERNMENT'S CONFIDENCE IN ITS READINESS TO RESPOND TO ALL
EVENTUALITIES. APPEARING BEFORE THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ON
JULY 11, DPM LEE PREDICTED A "QUIET FRONT" IN THE DPRK
WHILE THE TRANSFER OF POWER IS COMPLETED AND THE NEW
REGIME STABILIZED. HE FORESAW NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
NORTH-SOUTH RELATIONS.

DOMESTIC POLITICAL REACTION
--------------

14. A STAFF ASSISTANT TO FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
AND OPPOSITION LEADER KIM DAE JUNG SPOKE WITH POLOFF TODAY
AND LAID OUT KIM'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE
NORTH. KIM BELIEVES THAT KIM JONG IL WILL STAY WITH THE
COURSE SET BY HIS FATHER, AS THIS WILL BE THE SUREST WAY
TO LEGITIMIZE HIS RULE. IF HE IS INCLINED TO PURSUE HIS
OWN POLICIES, HE WILL NOT DO SO UNTIL HE FIRMLY
ESTABLISHES HIS RULE.


15. KIM DAE JUNG SEES TWO PRIORITIES FOR KIM JONG IL ONCE
HE ASSUMES POWER. HIS FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE TO
RESUME TALKS WITH THE USG, BECAUSE OF THE INSPECTION
DEADLINE RELATING TO THE SPENT FUEL RODS. SECONDLY, KIM
WILL NEED TO IMPROVE HIS CREDIBILITY AS A LEADER BY
PROVIDING IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC BENEFITS TO THE PEOPLE. THE
EASIEST WAY TO ACCOMPLISH THIS WOULD BE TO IMPROVE
ECONOMIC TIES WITH THE OUTSIDE WORLD. THUS, KIM DAE JUNG
IS OPTIMISTIC THAT KIM JONG IL WILL CONTINUE DIALOGUE WITH
THE US., WITH THE HOPE OF OBTAINING ECONOMIC
CONCESSIONS. THE CHIEF OBSTACLE KIM SEES AT THE MOMENT,
HOWEVER, IS THE ROKG. KIM IS CONCERNED THAT THE SOUTH MAY
SEIZE THIS PERIOD AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO TEST THE DPRK, AND
ADD MORE CONDITIONS TO THE TALKS. IF SO, KIM BELIEVES
THAT RATHER THAN ACQUIESCE TO FURTHER DEMANDS, THE NORTH
WOULD RETRENCH, AND HOPES FOR A RESOLUTION OF THE NUCLEAR
PROBLEM WOULD BE RUINED.


16. REP. PARK CHUNG SOO, A RULING DEMOCRATIC LIBERAL
PARTY (DLP) ASSEMBLYMAN, AND MEMBER OF THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS
COMMITTEE, SPOKE WITH POLOFF AND ECHOED KIM DAE JUNG'S
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY, PARK STATED THAT THE PARTY FELT
THAT IF AND WHEN NORTH KOREA PROPOSES ANOTHER SUMMIT, THE
FORMAT MUST BE REEVALUATED COMPLETELY. ALTHOUGH MEMBERS
SUPPORT THE CONCEPT OF A SUMMIT WITH KIM JONG IL, IT WOULD
HAVE TO BE HELD IN ANOTHER LOCATION, AND WITH A DIFFERENT
AGENDA.


STATEMENT BY THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY
--------------

17. THE MAIN OPPOSITION DEMOCRATIC PARTY (DP) PROVIDED
THE EMBASSY WITH THE FOLLOWING ENGLISH TEXT ON THE
AFTERNOON OF JULY 11:

"1. WE URGE THE GOVERNMENT TO CONTINUE THE DIALOGUE AND
NEGOTIATION POSITIVELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE BASIC
AGREEMENT BETWEEN SOUTH AND NORTH KOREA FOR SUMMIT TALKS.
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DIFFERENT INTERPRETATION AND
OPINIONS ON THE LEGITIMACY OF THE NORTH KOREA'S REGIME, IT
IS UNDER THE CONTEXT THAT REGIME UNDER KIM JONG IL COULD
STILL BE THE OBJECT OF NEGOTIATION AND DIALOGUE WHEN THE
KIM JONG IL'S REGIME WILL BE IN POWER IN THE CASE OF LATE
KIM IL SUNG.


2. WE URGE THE GOVERNMENT TO REFRAIN FROM ANY PROVOCATIVE
ACTIONS OF POLITICAL AND MILITARY AREAS AGAINST NORTH
KOREA UNTIL NORTH KOREA RESTORES THE PEACE WITHIN THE
REGIME.


3. WE URGE THE GOVERNMENT NOT TO SHOW ANY POSTURE WHICH
MAY INFLUENCE ON NORTH KOREA'S POWER FORMATION.

(ISSUED BY THE FOREIGN RELATION'S COMMITTEE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY.)"


18. COMMENT: THE INSISTENCE BY THE DP THAT THE SUMMIT GO
AHEAD AS SCHEDULED RUNS AT ODDS WITH PUBLIC SENTIMENT.
SOUTH KOREANS DO NOT HOLD A SOFT SPOT FOR THE YOUNGER KIM,
AND A TRIP BY KIM YOUNG SAM TO PYONGYANG TO MEET WITH
SOMEONE HIS JUNIOR IN BOTH AGE AND LEADERSHIP TENURE WOULD
INVITE WIDESPREAD PUBLIC CRITICISM. END COMMENT.

QUOTE OF THE DAY
--------------

19. EMBOFF WAS TOLD BY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS THAT FORMER
PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER IS NOW REFERRED TO IN ROKG CIRCLES
AS "THE ANGEL OF DEATH."

KARTMAN UNQUOTE

TALBOTT