SUDANESE MISCHIEF-MAKING: DOES IT MATTER?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 KHARTOUM 06366

LONDON FOR YOUNG; PARIS FOR MORAN
E.O. 12356; DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, KISL, PTER, SU
SUBJECT: SUDANESE MISCHIEF-MAKING: DOES IT MATTER?

REF: A) DUSHANBE 2573 (NOTAL); B) NOUAKCHOTT 3541


1. SECRET/NOFORN ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY. THE GOS/NIF IS INDOCTRINATING ITS PEOPLE
IN ITS RADICAL, ANTI-WESTERN VERSION OF ISLAM. IT
PROMOTES ITS IDEOLOGY ABROAD BY TRAINING AND HELPING
FOREIGN ISLAMISTS AND BY PROSELYTIZING THROUGH
ISLAMIST NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS. THE GOS/NIP
ALSO SEEKS TO EXPORT POLITICAL CHANGE BY FORCE, AS
EVIDENCED BY ITS EFFORTS TO DESTABILIZE ERITREA AND
UGANDA. MOREOVER, THE GOS/NIF SUPPORTS MOST MAJOR
MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORIST GROUPS.

3. THE IMPORT OF THESE ACTIVITIES SHOULD NOT BE
OVERSTATED: TERRORISTS WILL CONTINUE TO OPERATE,
STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA WILL REMAIN
PRECARIOUS, AND RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE WILL
CONTINUE TO OPPOSE THE U.S. WITH OR WITHOUT SUDAN'S
HELP. GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR, HOWEVER, MAKES THINGS WORSE
ON ALL THREE SCORES. ONE OF THE POOREST COUNTRIES IN
THE WORLD, SUDAN NONETHELESS SUCCEEDS IN PROJECTING
INFLUENCE ABROAD; UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS UNIFORMLY
NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF U.S. VALUES AND INTERESTS. END
SUMMARY.

4. SINCE THE GOS/NIF SEIZED POWER IN 1989 IT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR THAT THIS OSTENSIBLY
MILITARY GOVERNMENT IS A TOOL OF SUDAN'S NATIONAL
ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF). SPEAKING TO U.S. OFFICIALS,
SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE GOS AND THE NIF THAT CONTROLS
IT OFTEN PORTRAY THEMSELVES AS "MODERATE" ISLAMISTS.
THEY SAY THEY BEAR NO FUNDAMENTAL HOSTILITY TO THE
WEST OR TO THE U.S., AND BLAME STRAINED U.S- SUDANESE
RELATIONS ON AN ALLEGED U.S. BIAS AGAINST ISLAM.

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GOS/NIF SEEKS TO INDOCTRINATE SUDAN
--------------

5. THEIR PROTESTATIONS, HOWEVER, ARE BELIED BY THE
EXTREMIST MESSAGE THE REGIME PROPOUNDS TO THE
SUDANESE. THE UBIQUITOUS GOS/NIF PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN
PROMOTES A MILITANT AND INTOLERANT VERSION OF ISLAM.
ALTHOUGH SUDANESE BELONG TO A VARIETY OF CREEDS,
OFFICIAL RHETORIC TREATS ISLAM AS THE DE FACTO STATE
RELIGION AND ADVOCATES INFUSING ALL OF SOCIETY WITH
ITS VALUES. OFFICIAL PROPAGANDA EXTOLS THE WAR IN
THE SOUTH AS A "JIHAD" (HOLY WAR) AGAINST UNBELIEVERS.

6. NOWHERE, PERHAPS, IS THE EXTREMISM OF GOS/NIF
ISLAMIST PROPAGANDA MORE APPARENT THAN IN ITS
TREATMENT OF THE WEST. GOS/NIP OFFICIALS ROUTINELY
DEPICT THE WEST AS UNGODLY, DECADENT, AND HOSTILE.
THEY SINGLE OUT THE U.S. FOR SPECIAL ATTACK,
PORTRAYING IT AS A MALEVOLENT POWER BENT ON COMBATING
ISLAM. THIS DRUMBEAT IS RELENTLESS AND PERVASIVE.

7. IT IS A STAPLE OF THE GOS-CONTROLLED MEDIA, WHICH
ARE FULL OF COMMENTARIES, ARTICLES, EDITORIALS, AND
SONGS LAMBASTING THE U.S. A POPULAR VIDEO THE T.V.
IS RUNNING SUMS UP THE MESSAGE, PORTRAYING THE U.S.
AS THE FOE. IMAGES OF U.S. FORCES ARE CONTRASTED
WITH SHOTS OF THE GOS'S ISLAMIC POPULAR DEFENCE
FORCES (PDF) MARCHING PROUDLY BY. OTHER IMAGES SHOW
LIGHTNING SYMBOLICALLY STRIKING THE U.S. STATUE OF
LIBERTY. THE LYRICS AMPLIFY THE THEME OF THE U.S. AS
THE ENEMY. SUCH PROPAGANDA IS DAILY MEDIA FARE.

8. THE GOS/NIP'S RADICAL ISLAMIST MESSAGE, WITH ITS
STRONG ANTI-U.S. COMPONENT, IS CONVEYED IN OTHER WAYS
AS WELL. TENS OF THOUSANDS OF SUDANESE A YEAR ABSORB
HEAVY DOSES OF IT IN POPULAR DEFENSE FORCES'
TRAINING. (PDF SONGS OFTEN DESCRIBE HOW THE PDF WILL
DEFEAT THE AMERICANS.) PRO-NIP TEACHERS RELAY THE
MESSAGE IN SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES, AND
GOS-APPOINTED PREACHERS ECHO THE THEMES IN SERMONS AT
MOSQUES.

9. JUST HOW MUCH IMPACT THIS PROPAGANDA HAS IS HARD
TO TELL. MANY SUDANESE DISMISS IT OUT OF HAND.
OTHERS, HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY AMONG THE YOUNG AND LESS
EDUCATED, HEED IT MORE. MANY HAVE NO OTHER SOURCE OF
INFORMATION ON THE OUTSIDE WORLD. MOROEVER, SUDANESE
MUSLIMS ARE OFTEN DEEPLY RELIGIOUS. BY PORTRAYING
ISLAM AS UNDER U.S. ASSAULT, GOS/NIP PROPAGANDA
ELICITS AMONG SOME AN EMOTIONAL RESPONSE. WE THINK
THIS PROPAGANDA IS CONVINCING A SEGMENT OF OPINION
THAT ISLAM IS THREATENED AND THAT THE US. IS THE FOE.

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AND TRIES TO PROMOTE RADICALISM WORLDWIDE
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10. THE GOS/NIP IS NOT CONTENT, HOWEVER, WITH PUSHING
RADICAL ISLAM AT HOME. IT PROMOTES ITS WORLDVIEW
ABROAD AS WELL. A SPECIAL UNIVERSITY IN KHARTOUM,
AFRICA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY (AIU),SCHOOLS
THOUSANDS OF FOREIGNERS, MOSTLY AFRICANS, IN THE NIP
VERSION OF ISLAM. ALMOST ALL ARE ON SCHOLARSHIPS.
FOREIGNERS ALSO HAVE SCHOLARSHIPS TO OTHER SUDANESE
UNIVERSITIES WHERE THE TEACHING LIKEWISE LEANS
HEAVILY TOWARD RADICAL ISLAM, WITH A STRONG
ANTI-WESTERN COMPONENT.

11. UPON GRADUATING, THESE STUDENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
GO HOME TO IMPART WHAT THEY HAVE LEARNED.
ADMITTEDLY, JUST AS MOSCOW'S PATRICE LUMUMBA
UNIVERSITY PRODUCED ITS SHARE OF ANTI-COMMUNISTS, NOT
ALL FOREIGN STUDENTS ARE IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THEY SEE
AND HEAR IN SUDAN. STILL, A NUMBER LEAVE CONVINCED.

12. THE GOS/NIF FURTHER PROMOTES RADICAL ISLAM
THROUGH EXTENSIVE TIES TO LIKE-MINDED ISLAMISTS
WORLDWIDE. TWO INSTRUMENTS TO THIS END ARE THE
POPULAR ARAB ISLAMIC CONFERENCE (PAIC),HEADED BY NIF
SECRETARY GENERAL HASSAN TURABI, AND THE COUNCIL FOR
INTERNATIONAL PEOPLES' FRIENDSHIP (CIPF),HEADED BY A
TURABI PROTEGE.

13. THE PAIC AND THE CIPF MAINTAIN LINKS WITH GROUPS
AS DISPARATE AS LOUIS FARRAKHAN'S NATION OF ISLAM AND
ISLAMIST GROUPS IN TAJIKSTAN AND KASHMIR. ALTHOUGH
THE NATURE OF THESE CONTACTS IS SHADOWY, THE PAIC AND
CIPF CLEARLY OFFER OTHER ISLAMIST GROUPS
ENCOURAGEMENT AND MORAL SUPPORT. WE KNOW THE PAIC
AND CIPF HAVE ALSO, ON OCCASION, FUNDED FOREIGN
ISLAMISTS.

14. OTHER TOOLS FOR SPREADING THE ISLAMIST AGENDA ARE
SUDANESE ISLAMIC NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS,
AMONG WHICH DAWA ISLAMIIYA, MUWAFAQ, AND THE ISLAMIC
AFRICAN RELIEF ASSOCIATION (IARA) ARE THE BEST
KNOWN. THEY OPERATE IN SEVERAL FOREIGN COUNTRIES,
NOTABLY IN AFRICA. OSTENSIBLY ENGAGED IN BENEVOLENT
WORK, THESE NIF INSTRUMENTS ALSO SPREAD NIF VIEWS.
THE FACT THAT THE CASH-STRAPPED GOS/NIF SPENDS
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS A YEAR ON AIU, THE PAIC AND CIPF,
AND ISLAMIC NGOS SPEAKS OF ITS COMMITMENT TO
SPREADING ITS VERSION OF ISLAM AMONG MUSLIMS AND
NON-MUSLIMS ALIKE. THE MESSAGE BEING SPREAD
INCLUDES, OF COURSE, HOSTILITY TO THE WEST AND THE
U.S.

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GOS/NIF DESTABILIZING NEIGHBORS
--------------

15. NOR DOES THE GOS/NIF MERELY PEACEFULLY PEDDLE ITS
VIEWS ABROAD. IT IS NOT LOATHE TO EXPORTING
POLITICAL CHANGE BY FORCE. GOS/NIF SUPPORT FOR THE
ERITREAN ISLAMIC JIHAD, AN ISLAMIST MOVEMENT THAT
SEEKS THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF THE ERITREAN
GOVERNMENT, LED ASMARA TO BREAK DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
WITH KHARTOUM RECENTLY. THERE IS ALSO CONVINCING
EVIDENCE THE GOS/NIF IS MATERIALLY ASSISTING THE
INSURGENT LORD'S RESISTANCE ARMY (LRA) IN NORTHERN
UGANDA.

16. GIVEN THE SECRETIVE NATURE OF GOS/NIF LINKS TO
MANY ISLAMIST GROUPS, IT PROBABLE BUT NOT PROVEN THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION EFFORTS ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS, HOWEVER, SUDANESE
ISLAMISTS HAVE BEEN ARRESTED FOR SUBVERSION AS FAR
AFIELD AS MAURITANIA AND TAJIKSTAN (REFS A AND B).
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY THAT SUDANESE ISLAMISTS
MAY HAVE AN AGENDA FOR DESTABILIZATION THAT GOES
BEYOND SUDAN'S IMMEDIATE NEIGHBORS.

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AND SUPPORTING TERRORISM
--------------

17. BESIDES BEFRIENDING RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE,
THE GOS/NIF IS SPECIFICALLY SOLLICITOUS OF
TERRORISTS. IT HAS AN OPEN DOOR POLICY FOR EVERY
MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORIST GROUP. HAMAS, THE VARIOUS
FACTIONS OF THE PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD, THE ABU
NIDAL ORGANIZATION, HIZBALLAH, THE POPULAR FRONT FOR
THE LIBERATION OF PALESTINE-GENERAL COMMAND, AND THE
FRONT ISLAMIQUE DU SALUT (FIS) ALL ARE PRESENT HERE,
OFTEN IN A SIGNIFICANT FASHION, WITH THE BLESSING OF
THE GOS.

18. THE INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST CARLOS LIVED HERE FOR
MORE THAN A YEAR WITH THE PROTECTION OF SENIOR GOS
OFFICIALS BEFORE KHARTOUM, UNDER PRESSURE FROM
FRANCE, RELUCTANTLY TURNED HIM OVER. RENEGADE SAUDI
BUSINESSMAN OSAMA BIN LADEN, A PATRON OF
INTERNATIONAL ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS, HAS MOVED HIS HOME
AND HEADQUARTERS TO SUDAN.

19. THANKS TO GOS/NIF HOSPITALITY, TERRORISTS OF
EVERY DESCRIPTION CAN GATHER QUIETLY IN SUDANESE
SAFE-HOUSES, FAR FROM THE UNWANTED ATTENTION OF THEIR
HOME-COUNTRY SECURITY SERVICES. SUDAN HAS ALSO
PROVIDED DIFFERENT GROUPS MATERIAL ASSISTANCE AT
VARIOUS TIMES. ONLY A FEW WEEKS AGO ISRAEL PUBLICLY
PRODUCED A HAMAS MEMBER CAPTURED IN THE OCCUPIED
TERRITORIES, WHO CONFESSED HE HAD RECEIVED MILITARY
TRAINING IN SUDAN. ALSO A FEW WEEKS AGO, TUNISIA
DISCLOSED IT HAD ARRESTED TEN TUNISIAN TERRORISTS WHO
HAD TRAINED IN SUDAN (REF C). REPORTING IN OTHER
CHANNELS SHOWS THAT THE GOS/NIF HAS HELPED FUNNEL
WEAPONS TO THE FIS AND GIVEN ARMS, TRAINING, FUNDS
AND TRAVEL DOCUMENTS TO OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS.

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DOES IT MATTER?
--------------

20. IN FAIRNESS TO THE GOS/NIF, IT IS NOT THE FIRST
GOVERNMENT IN THE REGION TO SUPPORT ITS NEIGHBORS'
INSURGENTS. ARGUABLY, UGANDA BEGAN SUPPORTING THE
SUDAN PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY BEFORE SUDAN RESPONDED
BY HELPING THE LRA. GOS/NIF EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE
ERITREA, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE UNPROVOKED.

21. WE DEFER TO KAMPALA AND ASMARA FOR A DEFINITIVE
ANALYSIS OF THE DANGER GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR POSES TO
UGANDA AND ERITREA. OUR SENSE IS THAT IN BOTH CASES
IT IS TROUBLESOME BUT NOT REGIME-THREATENING.
HOWEVER, THIS REFLECTS MORE, IN OUR VIEW, THE
STRENGTHS OF BOTH REGIMES THAN A LACK OF A SERIOUS
EFFORT ON THE GOS/NIF'S PART TO CAUSE TROUBLE. AND
IT REMAINS THAT KHARTOUM IS FLOUTING INTERNATIONAL
STANDARDS OF BEHAVIOR AND EARNESTLY FOMENTING
REBELLION IN COUNTRIES WHERE STABILITY IS A RECENT
AND HARD-WON GAIN. AT SOME POINT, IF THE GOS/NIF
KEEPS TRYING HARD ENOUGH, ITS EFFORTS MIGHT BE MORE
SUCCESSFUL, EITHER IN THESE TWO COUNTRIES OR
ELSEWHERE.

22. REGARDING TERRORISM, SUDAN, TO THE BEST OF OUR
KNOWLEDGE, HAS STOPPED SHORT OF DIRECTLY SPONSORING
AN ACT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. MOREOVER, THE
GROUPS SUDAN ABETS ARE, FIRST AND FOREMOST, A PRODUCT
OF THE INTERNAL TENSIONS IN THE COUNTRIES WHERE THEY
WERE BORN. HAMAS, THE PIJ, OR THE FIS WILL EXIST
WITH OR WITHOUT GOS/NIF HELP. FURTHERMORE, THE
NATURE OF THIS AID IS LIMITED. SUDAN IS TOO POOR AND
TOO WEAK A STATE TO GIVE THEM MORE THAN LIMITED HELP.

23. THIS IS NOT, HOWEVER, THE SAME AS SAYING THAT
GOS/NIF SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM DOES NOT MATTER. THE
LOW OR NO-COST ASSISTANCE SUDAN CAN READILY PROVIDE
-- SAFE PLACES WHERE TERRORISTS CAN MEET, TRAIN, OR
SIMPLY REST AND RECUPERATE DISCREETLY -- IS OF NO
SMALL VALUE TO CLANDESTINE TERRORIST GROUPS.

24. TERRORISM, MOREOVER, REMAINS A RELATIVELY
LOW-COST UNDERTAKING. IT DOES NOT TAKE MASSIVE
INFUSIONS OF WEAPONS OR CASH TO INCREASE A TERRORIST
GROUP'S ABILITY TO DO HARM. EVEN DIRT-POOR SUDAN CAN
GIVE ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THIS REGARD.
AGAIN, THE GROUPS SUDAN HELPS DO NOT NEED THE GOS/NIF
TO THRIVE; THE HELP DOES ENHANCE, HOWEVER, THEIR
ABILITY TO CAUSE TROUBLE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
ANY HELP TERRORISTS RECEIVE IS TOO MUCH HELP.

25. LASTLY, DOES IT MATTER THAT SUDAN INDOCTRINATES
ITS OWN PEOPLE AND OTHERS IN RADICAL ISLAM? IT
PROBABLY DOES. PRECISELY WHAT IMPACT
SUDANESE-TRAINED ISLAMISTS HAVE WHEN THEY RETURN TO
THEIR HOME COUNTRIES IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL. AT A
MINIMUM, HOWEVER, SUDAN'S EFFORTS ARE INCREASING THE
NUMBERS OF THOSE, IN AND OUT OF SUDAN, COMMITTED TO
MILITANT ISLAM AND CONVINCED THE U.S. IS ITS FOE.
THIS CAN DO NO GOOD AND CAN CAUSE SOME HARM.

26. IT IS PROBABLY NO ACCIDENT THAT MOST OF THE
DEFENDENTS IN THE CURRENT NEW YORK CITY BOMBINGS
TRIAL ARE SUDANESE. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE
GOS/NIF DIRECTED THEM TO COMMIT TERRORISM IN THE
U.S. WE DO THINK, HOWEVER, THAT GOS/NIF RADICAL
PROPAGANDA MAY HAVE HELPED THEM CONVINCE THEMSELVES
THE U.S. HAS A MAJOR ENEMY OF ISLAM. FROM THERE ON
IT BECAME EASIER FOR THEM TO CONCLUDE THAT
ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORISM WAS JUSTIFIED IN THE NAME OF
JIHAD.

27. IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS, THE GOS/NIF'S ABILITY TO
DO HARM MUST NOT BE OVERSTATED. MIDDLE EASTERN
TERRORISTS WILL STILL OPERATE, REGIONAL STABILITY IN
THE HORN AND ELSEWHERE IN AFRICA WILL REMAIN FRAGILE,
AND RADICAL ISLAMISTS WORLDWIDE WILL CONTINUE TO
REVILE AND OPPOSE THE U.S. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SUDAN
DOES OR DOES NOT DO. GOS/NIF BEHAVIOR, HOWEVER,
MAKES THINGS WORSE ON ALL THREE SCORES.
28. IRONICALLY, THIS FOURTH-WORLD COUNTRY THAT RANKS
ON THE BOTTOM RUNG OF ALMOST EVERY INDICE OF
DEVELOPMENT -- PER CAPITA GDP, LEVELS OF LITERACY AND
INFANT MORTALITY, AND THE LIKE -- MANAGES TO PROJECT
INFLUENCE ABROAD. UNFORTUNATELY, IT IS UNIFORMLY
NEGATIVE IN TERMS OF U.S. INTERESTS AND VALVES.
GOS/NIP MISCHIEF-MAKING THUS DOES MATTER. JUST HOW
MUCH IT MATTERS DEPENDS HOW MUCH ONE VALVES THE
INTERNATIONAL LEGALITY SUDAN BRAZENLY FLOUTS.


BENEDICT