YAR'ADUA: A CHAT WITH THE DETAINEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KADUNA 00203


LONDON FOR MCKINLEY, PARIS FOR PERLOW
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/W ANDREWS
LAGOS PASS TO ABUJA

E.O. 12356: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA: A CHAT WITH THE DETAINEE

REFS: A) KADUNA 0168 B)LAGOS 1771 C) KADUNA 0192
D) LAGOS 0294



1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT


2. SUMMARY: CONSUL GENERAL MET WITH SDP LEADER AND
RECENT DETAINEE SHEHU YAR'ADUA ON FEBRUARY 22.
YAR'ADUA SAID HE HAD NO IDEA WHY HE HAD BEEN DETAINED,
BUT THOUGHT IT WAS PERHAPS BECAUSE HE HAD REFUSED TO
JOIN THE ABACHA GOVERNMENT, HAD SPOKEN OPENLY AGAINST
IT, AND ALSO HAD AN ORGANIZATION AND FOLLOWING BEHIND
HIM. YAR'ADUA BELIEVES THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE WILL BE
HELD, EVEN THOUGH IT MAY TAKE DIRECTIONS THE GOVERNMENT
WILL NOT WISH OR BE ABLE TO CONTROL. HE FIRMLY
BELIEVES ALL DELEGATES TO IT SHOULD BE ELECTED AND THAT
THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT MUST NOT HAVE THE RIGHT TO VETO
OR CHANGE THE CONFERENCE'S DECISIONS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
LENGTH OF TIME THE PRC SHOULD STAY IN POWER. END
SUMMARY.


3. SHEHU YAR'ADUA HAS BEEN HOSTING A NON-STOP
POLITICAL HOUSE PARTY SINCE HIS RELEASE FROM DETENTION
IN THE EARLY HOURS OF FEBRUARY 16. THE STREAM OF
VISITORS TO HIS HOME HAS BEEN STEADY, REPORTED DAILY IN
SUCH KADUNA PAPERS AS THE DEMOCRAT. HE HAS, HOWEVER,
CONSISTENTLY REFUSED TO GRANT INTERVIEWS TO THE PRESS,
IN SPITE OF OHE FACT THAT THEY HAVE STAKED HIM OUT FOR
THE PAST WEEK. WHEN CG CALLED ON YAR'ADUA AT HIS HABIB
BANK OFFICE, SHE RAN INTO THE VOA STRINGER AMONG A
LARGE GROUP OF OTHERS.


4. YAR'ADUA SAID HE COULD NOT REALLY EXPLAIN WHY HE
HAD BEEN DETAINED. UNLIKE HIS DETENTION, ALONG WITH
TWELVE OTHERS, IN DECEMBER 1991, WHEN HE UNDERSTOOD THE
MOTIVES OF THE BABANGIDA REGIME, HE COULD NOT FIND THE
LOGIC BEHIND THIS RECENT EPISODE. WHEN ASKED IF HE HAD
BEEN INTERROGATED, HE REPLIED THAT HE HAD BEEN ASKED TO
ANSWER WRITTEN QUESTIONS THAT HE BELIEVED HAD BEEN SENT
UP FROM ABUJA. "THEY WERE SO STUPID," HE SAID, THAT HE
HAD ENJOYED WRITING OBFUSCUTORY ANSWERS OR ONE-WORD
NEGATIVES.


5. HE SAID THE COMMENTS OF OTHERS TO THE PRESS THAT
YAR'ADUA HAD SAID NOTHING SO STRONG AS OBASANJO, FOR
EXAMPLE, WERE NOT VERY HELPFUL. HE BELIEVED THE BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIM AND CRITICS LIKE OBASANJO WAS
THE FACT THAT HE, YAR'ADUA, STILL HAD HIS ORGANIZATION
AMD FOLLOWING BEHIND HIM. OBASANJO SPOKE ONLY FOR
HIMSELF, WHILE YAR'ADUA HAD SUPPORTERS THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY.


6. YAR'ADUA ALSO BELIEVED THE ABACHA REGIME MOVED
AGAINST HIM AS THE ONLY MAJOR POLITICAL FORCE THAT
REFUSED TO COLLABORATE IN THE CURRENT CABINET. HE SAID
HE THOUGHT THAT MOST OF THOSE WHO JOINED THE CABINET
DID SO BECAUSE NIGERIANS DO NOT BELIEVE THEY CAN REFUSE
THE MILITARY. AS A FORMER MILITARY OFFICER, HE KNEW
THERE WAS NO REASON TO GO RUNNING TO JOIN GOVERNMENT
WHEN ABACHA TOOK OVER. AS A STAUNCH ADVOCATE OF
CIVILIAN DEMOCRATIC RULE, YAR'ADUA BELIEVED THE ONLY
PRINCIPLED STAND WAS TO REFUSE TO TAKE PART IN AN
ILLEGAL REGIME.


7. YAR'ADUA BELIEVED THE ABACHA REGIME WAS A
DO-NOTHING GROUP. THERE WAS NO PLAN AND NO
IMPLEMENTATION OF PROGRAMS. THE ECONOMIC MEASURES HAD
NOT YET BEEN PUT IN PLACE. YAR'ADUA POINTED OUT THAT
NONE OF THE BANKS, HIS INCLUDED, HAD RECEIVED ANY WORD,
FOUR DAYS AFTER THE FIRST FOREIGN EXCHANGE AUCTION
SINCE DECEMBER, WHAT ALLOCATIONS HAD BEEN MADE AND TO
WHOM. HE ALSO BELIEVED THE GOVERNMENT HAD NO IDEA WHAT
WOULD COME FROM THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE AND THAT IT
WOULD BE UNABLE TO CONTROL THE FORCES ITS CONVENING
WOULD UNLEASH.


8. ON THE SUBJECT OF THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE, YAR'ADUA
SAID THE REASON HE HAD CALLED IN HIS PRESS CONFERENCE
FOR A LIFTING OF THE PROHIBITION ON POLITICAL
ASSOCIATIONS AND MEETINGS WAS TO PERMIT THE FULLEST
POSSIBLE AIRING OF VIEWS PRIOR TO THE CONVENING OF THE
THIS PROCESS WAS BUILDING UP HEADS OF STEAM WITH NO
VENT. SHOULD THIS CONTINUE, THE OPENING WEEKS OF THE
CONFERENCE WILL BE EXPLOSIVE. HE FEARS THE MILITARY
GOVERNMENT MAY NOT PERMIT THE PROCESS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
MATTERS QUIET DOWN.


9. ASKED IF HE PLANNED TO BE A PART OF THE NATIONAL
CONFERENCE, YAR'ADUA GAVE A MORE QUALIFIED RESPONSE
THAN THAT OF SIX WEEKS AGO (REFTEL D). HE SAID HE
WOULD WAIT TO SEE THE TERMS OF REFERENCE, PARTICULARLY
ON THE QUESTION OF HOW THE DELEGATES WOULD BE CHOSEN.
HE WAS ADAMANT THAT THE CONFERENCE DELEGATES MUST ALL
BE ELECTED; IF INTEREST GROUPS OR TRADITIONAL RULERS
WISHED TO HAVE INPUTS, THEY SHOULD DEAL THROUGH THE
ELECTED DELEGATES, HE SAID. THIS WAS A FUNDAMENTAL
PRINCIPLE OF DEMOCRACY. FURTHER, HE THOUGHT IT WAS
POINTLESS FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO SAY THAT THE QUESTION
OF NIGERIAN UNITY AMD WHAT BINDS THE COUNTRY TOGETHER
SHOULD NOT BE ON THE TABLE. IT ALREADY WAS ON THE
TABLE, HE SAID, AND IT NEEDS DISCUSSION. THE
GOVERNMENT SHOULD HAVEI E COURAGE TO LET THE ANGER BE
EXPRESSED AND PERMIT MORE FRUITFUL DISCUSSION TO
FOLLOW. FINALLY, HE WAS WAITING TO SEE WHETHER THE
CONFERENCE WOULD BE GIVEN FULL AUTHORiTY, INCLUDING THE
AUTHORITY TO SET THE TIME LIMITS ON THE ABACHA
GOVERNMENT. IN HIS VIEW, THIS WAS ALSO AN IRREDUCIBLE
REQUIREMENT.


10. YAR'ADUA REPLIED TO A QUESTION ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT BABANGIDA COULD STILL HOPE FOR
RESURRECTION AS A CIVILIAN ELECTED PRESIDENT BY SAYING
THAT "THE LONGER ABACHA REMAINS IN POWER, THE BETTER
BABANGIDA WILL LOOK." NEVERTHELESS, YAR'ADUA CLEARLY
ENDORSED THE BITTER ATTACK ON BABANGIDA MADE AT THE
AREWA HOUSE CONFERENCE BY HIS FORMER BOSS OBASANJO. HE
ADDED THAT BABANGIDA IS "TOO OLD, AND LAUGHED WHEN CG
SAID SHE AND IBB WERE THE SAME AGE.


11. COMMENT: YAR'ADUA AS ALWAYS WAS HARD TO READ. HE
HAS A NERVOUS MANNER, WITH A FREQUENT COUGH AND MUCH
FIDGETING. IN SPITE OF THESE PERSONAL MANNERISMS, HE
IS CHARISMATIC IN ONE-ON-ONE INTERVIEWS, EXPRESSING
STRONG OPINIONS WITH CONVICTION. THE PRINCIPLED
DEFENSE OF DEMOCRATIC PROCESSES HE DELIVERED RANG TRUE,
EXCEPT FOR THE NAGGING THOUGHT AT THE BACK OF THE MIND
THAT HE IS SITTING FAIRLY PRETTY TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
CONSTITUTIONAL CONFERENCE IF THE CONDITIONS HE OUTLINED
WIN OUT. SINCE HE HAS NOT JOINED THE GOVERNMENT NOR
RECOMMENDED ANY PROXIES (AS HAVE, FOR EXAMPLE, PEOPLE
LIKE SARAKI AND SHINKAFI),HE IS "CLEAN." ON BALANCE,
HOWEVER, WE WOULD JUDGE THAT YAR'ADUA HAS CONSISTENTLY,
OVER THE TWO AND MORE YEARS WE HAVE HAD CONTACT,
EXPRESSED HIS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC CIVILIAN RULE IN
LANGUAGE THAT EXPRESSES BOTH CONVICTION AND A MORE
NUANCED UNDERSTANDING THAN WE HAVE MET IN OTHER
NIGERIAN POLITICIANS. IN SHORT, THE ABACHA REGIME MAY
REGRET HAVING TAKEN A STEP THAT CAN ONLY HAVE ENHANCED
YAR'ADUA'S REPUTATION.


WEINLAND