Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
94HAVANA5167
1994-08-06 19:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
how-toO 061949Z AUG 94 FM USINT HAVANA TO SECSTATE WASHDC NIACT IMMEDIATE 1969 INFO CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL COMDT COGARD WASHDC FBIS KEY WEST USCINCLANT NORFOLK VA COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY JTLO MIAMI USIA WASHDC 7936
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 005167
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV CU
SUBJECT: BEHIND CASTRO'S THREATS
REF: HAVANA 5150
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 005167
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV CU
SUBJECT: BEHIND CASTRO'S THREATS
REF: HAVANA 5150
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
2. WHY THE CHANGE IN GOC ATTITUDE TOWARD MASSIVE
EMIGRATION? FOR YEARS NOW, MOST OBSERVERS HAD JUDGED
THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT AS UNLIKELY TO STAGE ANOTHER MARIEL
OR TO OPEN ITS SHORES TO FREE EMIGRATION FOR FEAR OF
UNLEASHING A SITUATION WHICH IT COULD NOT CONTROL. WHAT
HAPPENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS TO CHANGE THIS
SITUATION WAS THAT CUBAN AUTHORITIES WERE GRADUALLY
LOSING CONTROL, EVEN WHILE SEEKING TO PREVENT ILLEGAL
EMIGRATION. THE RATE OF ILLEGAL DEPARTURES BY REFUGEES
TAKING CUBAN GOVERNMENT BOATS HAS INCREASED
GEOMETRICALLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
3. THE SITUATION WAS DRAMATICALLY AGGRAVATED BY THE
DROWNINGS OF OVER THIRTY FLEEING CUBANS ON JULY 13 IN
THE TUGBOAT SUNK BY THE ACTIONS OF OTHER TUGBOATS. THE
NEGATIVE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND DOMESTIC DISCONTENT
WHICH THIS INCIDENT PRODUCED ADDED GREATLY TO GOVERNMENT
PRESSURES BY MAKING VIOLENT EFFORTS TO DETER BOAT THEFTS
UNPALATABLE. THE APPARENT USE OF WEAPONS TO SEIZE
HIGHLY VISIBLE HAVANA HARBOR FERRIES WAS A MAJOR
IRRITANT AND THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT BECAME CONVINCED THAT
THE USG WOULD NOT ACT SERIOUSLY TO PUNISH ANY
PERPETRATORS. THE WIDESPREAD PUBLIC ANXIOUSNESS TO FLEE
THE ISLAND PRODUCED BY THESE FERRY FLIGHTS LED ON AUGUST
5 TO HUGE CROWDS WHICH SOON TURNED FROM THOUGHTS OF
FLIGHT TO ANTIGOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS AND LOOTING.
4. THE GOVERNMENT THUS WAS INCREASINGLY FACING A
SITUATION IN WHICH IT FEARED LOSING CONTROL, EVEN AS IT
SOUGHT TO PREVENT EMIGRATION. IT IS IN THIS LIGHT THAT
FIDEL CASTRO'S DECISION TO THREATEN TO UNLEASH MASSIVE
REFUGEE FLIGHT UPON THE U.S. CAN BE UNDERSTOOD. WE
BELIEVE THAT SUCH A DECISION COULD STIMULATE DEPARTURE
EFFORTS BY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, EVEN THOUGH PRIVATELY
HELD VESSELS ARE RARE. CUBA WOULD INDEED BE TAKING A
SERIOUS RISK IN OPENING ITS BORDERS -- PROBABLY EVEN A
GREATER ONE THAN IT REALIZES, BUT CUBAN AUTHORITIES
ALREADY FELT THEMSELVES RUNNING GROWING RISKS. BY
MAKING THE THREAT AND PERHAPS IMPLEMENTING IT, THEY HOPE
TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE U.S. TO ALTER ITS IMMIGRATION
POLICY IN WAYS WHICH WOULD DIMINISH THE PRESSURES ON
CUBAN AUTHORITIES.
SULLIVAN
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PREF PGOV CU
SUBJECT: BEHIND CASTRO'S THREATS
REF: HAVANA 5150
1. CONFIDENTIAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.
2. WHY THE CHANGE IN GOC ATTITUDE TOWARD MASSIVE
EMIGRATION? FOR YEARS NOW, MOST OBSERVERS HAD JUDGED
THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT AS UNLIKELY TO STAGE ANOTHER MARIEL
OR TO OPEN ITS SHORES TO FREE EMIGRATION FOR FEAR OF
UNLEASHING A SITUATION WHICH IT COULD NOT CONTROL. WHAT
HAPPENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS TO CHANGE THIS
SITUATION WAS THAT CUBAN AUTHORITIES WERE GRADUALLY
LOSING CONTROL, EVEN WHILE SEEKING TO PREVENT ILLEGAL
EMIGRATION. THE RATE OF ILLEGAL DEPARTURES BY REFUGEES
TAKING CUBAN GOVERNMENT BOATS HAS INCREASED
GEOMETRICALLY IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.
3. THE SITUATION WAS DRAMATICALLY AGGRAVATED BY THE
DROWNINGS OF OVER THIRTY FLEEING CUBANS ON JULY 13 IN
THE TUGBOAT SUNK BY THE ACTIONS OF OTHER TUGBOATS. THE
NEGATIVE INTERNATIONAL ATTENTION AND DOMESTIC DISCONTENT
WHICH THIS INCIDENT PRODUCED ADDED GREATLY TO GOVERNMENT
PRESSURES BY MAKING VIOLENT EFFORTS TO DETER BOAT THEFTS
UNPALATABLE. THE APPARENT USE OF WEAPONS TO SEIZE
HIGHLY VISIBLE HAVANA HARBOR FERRIES WAS A MAJOR
IRRITANT AND THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT BECAME CONVINCED THAT
THE USG WOULD NOT ACT SERIOUSLY TO PUNISH ANY
PERPETRATORS. THE WIDESPREAD PUBLIC ANXIOUSNESS TO FLEE
THE ISLAND PRODUCED BY THESE FERRY FLIGHTS LED ON AUGUST
5 TO HUGE CROWDS WHICH SOON TURNED FROM THOUGHTS OF
FLIGHT TO ANTIGOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS AND LOOTING.
4. THE GOVERNMENT THUS WAS INCREASINGLY FACING A
SITUATION IN WHICH IT FEARED LOSING CONTROL, EVEN AS IT
SOUGHT TO PREVENT EMIGRATION. IT IS IN THIS LIGHT THAT
FIDEL CASTRO'S DECISION TO THREATEN TO UNLEASH MASSIVE
REFUGEE FLIGHT UPON THE U.S. CAN BE UNDERSTOOD. WE
BELIEVE THAT SUCH A DECISION COULD STIMULATE DEPARTURE
EFFORTS BY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, EVEN THOUGH PRIVATELY
HELD VESSELS ARE RARE. CUBA WOULD INDEED BE TAKING A
SERIOUS RISK IN OPENING ITS BORDERS -- PROBABLY EVEN A
GREATER ONE THAN IT REALIZES, BUT CUBAN AUTHORITIES
ALREADY FELT THEMSELVES RUNNING GROWING RISKS. BY
MAKING THE THREAT AND PERHAPS IMPLEMENTING IT, THEY HOPE
TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE U.S. TO ALTER ITS IMMIGRATION
POLICY IN WAYS WHICH WOULD DIMINISH THE PRESSURES ON
CUBAN AUTHORITIES.
SULLIVAN