Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
94HAVANA3027
1994-05-12 19:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
US Interests Section Havana
Cable title:  

CASTRO'S HEALTH RUMORS -- FURTHER RUMINATIONS

Tags:  PGOV CU 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 121929Z MAY 94
FM USINT HAVANA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9782
INFO AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY CARACAS
JTLO MIAMI
USIA WASHDC 7723
AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
AMEMBASSY MEXICO
COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY
C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 003027 


FOR ARA/CCA -- DENNIS HAYS

E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL
TAGS: PGOV CU
SUBJECT: CASTRO'S HEALTH RUMORS -- FURTHER RUMINATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 003027


FOR ARA/CCA -- DENNIS HAYS

E.O. 12356: OADR:DECL
TAGS: PGOV CU
SUBJECT: CASTRO'S HEALTH RUMORS -- FURTHER RUMINATIONS


1. CONFIDENTLAL -- ENTIRE TEXT.


2. FIDEL CASTRO'S RECENT TRIPS TO BARBADOS AND SOUTH
AFRICA, AS WELL AS HIS APPEARANCES DURING THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY AND THE DIALOGUE WITH THE EXILE COMMUNITY, BOTH
OF WHICH WERE TELEVISED, GIVE THE LIE TO RUMORS THAT HE
IS SUFFERING FROM SOME GRAVE ILLNESS. NEVERTHELESS,
RUMORS DO PERSIST THAT HE HAD A MILD CEREBRAL ISCHEMIA.
ACTIVIST VLADIMIRO ROCA TOLD USINT RECENTLY THAT HE
BELIEVES THE RUMORS THAT CIRCULATED HERE AROUND
MID-APRIL WERE NOTHING MORE THAN A DELAYED REACTION TO A
LEAK IN LATE MARCH- EARLY APRIL THAT CASTRO HAD AN
ISCHEMIA. ACCORDING TO ROCA, ISCHEMIAS CAN BE TREATED
WITH MEDICATION AND BEDREST, WHICH, IN ROCA'S VIEW,
WOULD EXPLAIN CASTRO'S ABSENCE FROM PUBLIC LIFE FOR
THREE WEEKS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.


3. RMO DWIGHT BABCOCK TOLD US DURING HIS MAY 11 VISIT
HERE THAT ISCHEMIAS ARE CAUSED BY LACK OF BLOOD FLOW
(AND THEREFORE LACK OF OXYGEN) TO A PARTICULAR AREA,
USUALLY THE BRAIN, HEART OR LEGS. A CEREBRAL ISHEMIA IS
CAUSED BY AN OBSTRUCTION AT THE CAROTID JUNCTION AND CAN
LEAD TO MICROINFARCTS, SMALL AREAS OF DEAD OR DYING
BRAIN TISSUE CAUSED BY THE LACK OF BLOOD FLOW. IF
UNTREATED, THIS CAN LEAD TO VARYING DEGREES OF SENILITY.


4. TREATMENT CAN BE TO EITHER REMOVE THE OBSTRUCTION IN
A SIMPLE OPERATION AT THE BASE OF THE NECK OR BY USING
ANTICOAGULANTS. DR. BABCOCK NOTED THAT 95 PERCENT OF
THE PATIENTS WHO HAVE THE ANTICOAGULANT TREATMENT HAVE
NO PROBLEM, THOUGH 5 PERCENT DO RUN THE RISK OF HAVING A
STROKE. THE OPERATION ALSO IS NOT THAT DIFFICULT AND
WOULD REQUIRE ONLY 3-5 DAYS HOSPITALIZATION. IN BOTH
CASES, THE PATIENT WOULD BE ADVISED TO REST 10-30 DAYS
DURING TREATMENT, THOUGH HE WOULD STILL BE ABLE TO CARRY
OUT SIMPLE ACTIVITIES. AN OPERATION WOULD LEAVE A SMALL
ONE-AND-HALF INCH SCAR, BUT ONE WHICH COULD EASILY BE
COVERED BY A HIGH COLLAR OR MAKEUP.


5. BABCOCK NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE ISCHEMIA IS
SUCCESSFULLY TREATED, THERE IS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT WITHIN 2-3 YEARS THE PATIENT COULD HAVE ANOTHER
ISCHEMIA IN THE SAME AREA. MOREOVER, THE PATIENT IS
ALSO AT HIGH RISK FOR DEVELOPING ISCHEMIAS IN OTHER
PARTS OF THE BODY (LIKE THE LEG OR HEART). HOWEVER,
WITH PROPER TREATMENT (ASPIRIN AND OTHER
ANTICOAGULANTS),THE PATIENT COULD LIVE SEVERAL MORE
YEARS -- THE RMO DID NOT WANT TO EVEN HAZARD A GUESS AT
POSSIBLE LIFE EXPECTANCY.


6. A FOOTNOTE: P/E OFF FINALLY SPOKE WITH ACTIVIST
AIDA VALDES MAY 10 REGARDING HER SOURCE WHO TOLD HER ON
APRIL 19 THAT CASTRO WAS SERIOUSLY ILL AND BEING TREATED
IN AN INTENSIVE CARE ROOM SET UP AT THE CENTRAL
COMMITTEE. SHE SAID THAT HER SOURCE, CRISTOBAL FAJARDO,
HAD BEEN RELIABLE IN THE PAST, BUT SHE HAS BEEN UNABLE
TO TALK TO HIM ABOUT THE RUMOR BECAUSE HE WAS ARRESTED
SHORTLY AFTER THE RUMORS STARTED CIRCULATING. VALDES
SAID THAT FAJARDO HAS BEEN HELD VIRTUALLY INCOMMUNICADO
AT VILLA MARISTAS FOR THREE WEEKS. (SHE SAID THAT
FAJARDO WORKS WITH THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, BUT WE HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY LISTING FOR HIM IN OUR
RECORDS.)


7. COMMENT: IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT CASTRO SUFFERED
SOME MILD ISCHEMIA IN LATE MARCH. RUMORS ABOUT THE
ISCHEMIA MESH WITH ANOTHER RUMOR USINT PRINCIPAL OFFICER
HAD HEARD FROM A EUROPEAN AMBASSADOR THAT CASTRO HAD HAD
A SMALL OPERATION AT THE BASE OF THE NECK, QUITE
PROBABLY TO REMOVE THE OBSTRUCTION. ANOTHER PART OF
THIS RUMOR (HAVANA 2693) WAS THAT CASTRO'S SENSE OF
BALANCE HAD BEEN AFFECTED, A COMMENT CONSISTENT WITH THE
SLOW, CAREFUL STEPS BY CASTRO AT THE APRIL 25 AIRPORT
ARRIVAL CEREMONY FOR THE VISITING ZAMBIAN PRESI
DENT.

CASTRO DID LOOK TIRED DURING HIS PUBLIC APPEARANCES HERE
IN MID- AND LATE APRIL, THOUGH HE SEEMS TO HAVE
REBOUNDED WELL FOR HIS EXHAUSTING TRIP TO SOUTH AFRICA.
WE HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE RIGORS OF HIS TRAVELS
AFFECT HIM AFTER HIS RETURN TO CUBA. END COMMENT.

SULLIVAN