Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
94DUSHANBE2006
1994-08-08 03:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV NOMINATED FOR PRESIDENT IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP AS A REAL HORSERACE

Tags:  PREL PINR PHUM TI RS PGOV 
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O 080322Z AUG 94
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4134
INFO AMEMBASSY MOSCOW IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE
USMISSION USVIENNA IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY TASHKENT IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY WARSAW IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY BISHKEK IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ALMATY IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR IMMEDIATE
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE
CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1075
DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1079
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 02006 

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS EUR/ISCA;
USMISSION USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE;
MOSCOW FOR POL (PLEASE PASS AMBASSADOR ESCUDERO)
WARSAW FOR JACK ZETKULIK
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: GOV PREL PINR PHUM TI RS
SUBJECT: FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV NOMINATED FOR
PRESIDENT IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP AS A REAL HORSERACE

REF: A) MOSCOW 22287, B) DUSHANBE 2003,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 02006

DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS EUR/ISCA;
USMISSION USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE;
MOSCOW FOR POL (PLEASE PASS AMBASSADOR ESCUDERO)
WARSAW FOR JACK ZETKULIK
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: GOV PREL PINR PHUM TI RS
SUBJECT: FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV NOMINATED FOR
PRESIDENT IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP AS A REAL HORSERACE

REF: A) MOSCOW 22287, B) DUSHANBE 2003,


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: THE LENINABAD REGION HAS OVERWHELMINGLY NOMINATED
FORMER PRIME MINISTER ABDULLAJANOV FOR PRESIDENT. HE JOINS
PARLIAMENT CHAIRMAN RAHMONOV IN THE RACE WHICH WILL BE DECIDED IN
THE SEPTEMBER 25 ELECTION. ABDULLAJANOV, WHO SERVED BOTH THE
OPPOSITION AND THE RAHMONOV GOVERNMENTS AS PRIME MINISTER,
EMERGES AS A VERY STRONG CANDIDATE, POSSIBLY THE INITIAL
FAVORITE. OPPOSITIONISTS' PUBLIC CONCERNS/THREATS REGARDING THE
CONSEQUENCES OF A ONE-MAN RACE APPEAR MOLLIFIED. WE SEE
ABDULAJANOV LIKELY TO CAPITALIZE ON BROAD DISSATISFACTION WITH
THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WHICH HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STOP THE SLIDE
INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS AND IS WIDELY RESENTED FOR ITS CORRUPTION AND
HEAVY HANDEDNESS. PUBLIC CHARGES OF CORRUPTION AGAINST
ABDULAJANOV WILL UNDERMINE HIS CAMPAIGN AS WELL, HOWEVER. THIS
IS A HIGH STAKES RACE IN WHICH BOTH SIDES ARE LIKELY TO PULL OUT
ALL STOPS. INTERNATIONAL MONITORING COULD BE DECISIVE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER TAJIKISTAN'S VOTERS HAVE A CHANCE TO CAST
THEIR VOTES IN A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION. END SUMMARY


3. THE LENINABAD REGIONAL ASSEMBLY MEETING IN SPECIAL SESSION
AUGUST 6 NOMINATED ABDULMALIK ABDULAJANOV, FORMER PRIME MINISTER
AND CURRENTLY TAJIKISTAN'S AMBASSADOR IN MOSCOW, AS THE REGION'S
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE. HE JOINS CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
(AND CURRENTLY CHIEF OF STATE) EMOMALI RAHMONOV IN THE RACE FOR
PRESIDENT TO BE DECIDED IN NATIONAL ELECTIONS SEPTEMBER 25 (REFS
A AND B).


4. THE KEENLY WATCHED LENINABAD SESSION PRODUCED THREE
CANDIDATES FOR THE REGIONAL NOMINATION: ABDULAJANOV, RAHMONOV AND
A PROMINENT UZBEK BUSINESSMAN FROM KANIBODAM DISTRICT (YUSUFJON
AHMADOV). AHMADOV IMMEDIATELY WITHDREW HIS NAME FROM
CONSIDERATION SETTING UP A HEAD-TO-HEAD CONFRONTATION BETWEEN
RAHMONOV AND ABDULLAJANOV. IN A SECRET BALLOT, ABDULAJANOV WAS
THE EASY WINNER COLLECTING 137 VOTES TO RAHMONOV'S 33. GOTI
CENTRAL MEDIA REPORTED THE LENINABAD ASSEMBLY RESULT ONE DAY
AFTER THE ACTION BUT OMITED THE FACT THAT THERE HAD BEEN A HEAD

TO HEAD CONTEST BETWEEN ABDULLAJANOV AND RAHMONOV AND THAT THE
ABDULLAJANOV HAD BEEN AS DECISIVE AS IT WAS.


5. THE LENINABAD ACTION CAME IN THE WAKE OF THE NOMINATION OF
RAHMONOV BY THE KHATLON REGIONAL ASSEMBLY AND BY THE NATIONAL
YOUTH FEDERATION (REF B). BOTH BODIES HAD SENT FORMAL MESSAGES
TO THE LENINABAD REGIONAL SESSION URGING THAT IT JOIN IN A
CONSENSUS ENDORSEMENT OF RAHMONOV.


6. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN NO OPPOSITION REACTION TO ABDULAJANOV'S
NOMINATION, STATEMENTS ON THE EVE OF THE LENINABAD NOMINATION HAD
INCLUDED WARNINGS ABOUT THE CONSEQUENCES OF A ONE-MAN RACE FOR
PRESIDENT. LEADER OF TAJIKISTAN'S REFUGEE ORGANIZATION IN MOSCOW
AND OPPOSITIONIST HABIB SANGINOV WAS QUOTED ON RADIO KHORASAN
(IRAN) AS HAVING STATED THAT IF RAHMONOV EMERGED AS THE ONLY
CANDIDATE, THE SEPTEMBER 25 VOTE COULD NOT BE CONSIDERED TO BE A
REAL ELECTION. OPPOSITION COMMANDER REDZUAN IN THE SAME
BROADCAST WAS QUOTED AS STATING THAT IF RAHMONOV WERE THE ONLY
NOMINEE THEN THE OPPOSITION WOULD CAST ITS VOTE WITH ROCKETS.
THERE WILL BE MUCH ATTENTION PAID TO THE FORMAL AND INFORMAL
OPPOSITION REACTION TO THE NOMINATION OF ABDULAJANOV, WHO WAS
PRIME MINISTER IN THE BRIEF OPPOSITION GOVERNMENT (SEPTEMBER-
NOVEMBER 1992) AS WELL AS PRIME MINISTER UNDER RAHMONOV (NOVEMBER
1992 - DECEMBER 1993). (ABDULAJANOV WAS ALSO MINISTER OF BREAD
AND BRIEFLY PRIME MINISTER UNDER TAJIKISTAN'S FIRST ELECTED
PRESIDENT, RAHMON NABIYEV.)


7. STILL TO COME ARE POSSIBLE NOMINATIONS BY THE GORNO
BADAKHSHAN AUTONOMOUS REGIONAL ASSEMBLY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE
ACTION BY DUSHANBE AND OTHER DISTRICTS IN THE HISSAR AND GARM
VALLEYS. THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE NEW POLITICAL PARTY, "THE
PARTY FOR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RENEWAL," AS WELL AS THE
NATIONAL LABOR FEDERATION MAY NOMINATE OTHER CANDIDATES ALTHOUGH
AT THIS POINT THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY. RATHER, IF THEY NINATE
ANYONE AT ALL, THEY WOULD LIKELY LINE UP BEHIND ABDULAJANOV OR
RAHMONOV. THE LABOR FEDERATION, DOMINATED BY KULYABIS, WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BACK RAHMONOV.


8. COMMENT/ANALYSIS: WITH ABDULAJANOV IN THE CONTEST, THE
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AUTOMATICALLY BECOMES A REAL HORSE RACE.
WE ESTIMATE THAT ABDULAJANOV CAN COUNT ON STRONG SUPPORT IN HIS
HOME REGION OF LENINABAD, AND AMONG TAJIKISTAN'S UZBEK COMMUNITY
WHICH MAKES UP APPROXIMATELY 24 PERCENT OF THE POPULATION. OTHER
MINORITIES WILL LIKELY ALSO BACK ABDULAJANOV. THE FORMER
OPPOSITION HOMELANDS IN THE GARM VALLEY, GORNO BADAKHSHAN AND THE
GARM AND PAMIRI COMMUNITIES IN FORMER KURGAN TYUBE REGION WOULD
ALMOST CERTAINLY PREFER ABDULAJANOV TO RAHMONOV -- IF THEY CHOOSE
TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ELECTION. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO LEAVE ONLY
THE LESS THAN UNITED KULYAB CLAN AS CLEARLY IN RAHMONOV'S COLUMN.

MOREOVER, THE RAPID SLIDE INTO ECONOMIC CHAOS ENTAILING UNPAID
SALARIES AND PENSIONS AND CURRENCY SHORTAGES WILL INEVITABLY CUT
DEEPLY INTO ANY PRO-RAHMONOV VOTE. ON THE FACE OF IT, IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT ABDULAJANOV EMERGES AS THE EARLY FAVORITE IN THE
RACE.


9. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS MAY INTRUDE, HOWEVER.
THE CIVIL WAR OF 1992 BEGAN AS A NORTH-SOUTH CONFRONTATION
BETWEEN THE GARM/PAMIRI REGIONS AND THE NORTHERN (LENINABAD)
REGION. THE LENINABAD POLITICAL LEADERSHIP DREW THE KULYABIS INTO
THE STRUGGLE TRANSFORMING IT INTO A SOUTH-SOUTH CONFLICT WITH
LENINABAD ON THE SIDELINES. RECENTLY, GROWING ANIMOSITY BETWEEN
KULYABIS AND UZBEKS HAD SEEMED TO BE PROVIDING THE BASIS FOR A
RAPPROCHEMENT BETWEEN KULYABIS AND GARMIS, NOTABLY IN THE FORMER
KURGAN TYUBE REGION AS POST HAS REPORTED (SEE DUSHANBE 1563).
HOWEVER, RECENT VERY HEAVY FIGHTING IN TAVILDARA DISTRICT HAS LED
TO NEW TENSIONS BETWEEN GARMIS AND KULYABIS (SEPTEL).


10. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE HIGH STAKES INVOLVED IN THIS
RACE, MAKE IT LIKELY THAT BOTH SIDES WILL BE PREPARED TO USE
WHATEVER MEANS ARE NECESSARY TO SECURE VICTORY. PHYSICAL
INTIMIDATION (OR WORSE) TARGETING CANDIDATES, CAMPAIGN WORKERS
AND VOTERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RAHMONNOV'S ABILITY TO CONTROL
THE MEDIA FOR HIS PURPOSES IS LIKELY TO BE EXPLOITED. ALREADY
HEROIC DESCRIPTIONS OF RAHMONOV AND SCANDAL MONGERING ATTACKS ON
ABDULAJANOV HAVE APPEARED IN THE GOTI CONTROLLED MEDIA. THE
PUBLISHER OF THE PRO-ABDULAJANOV WEEKLY "TOJIKISTON"
HAS TOLD HIS EDITOR THAT FOR TWO MONTHS THE PAPER WILL NOT
PUBLISH. HE EXPLAINED THAT IF THE PAPER TAKES A PRO-ABDULAJANOV
POSTURE THE STAFF WILL BE AT RISK. HOWEVER, THE PAPER WILL NOT
SUBMIT TO PRESSURE TO BECOME A RAHMONOV MOUTHPIECE.


11. FINALLY, THE ROLE OF FOREIGN INTERESTS IS AS YET AN UNKNOWN.
A LENGTHY PAEAN TO RAHMONOV BY RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR SINKEVICH ON
NATIONAL TELEVISION AUGUST 7 PRESUMABLY DOES NOT SIGNAL A PRO-
RAHMONOV TILT BY THE RUSSIANS -- WHOM WE EXPECT TO BE EITHER
QUIETLY PRO-ABDULAJANOV OR NEUTRAL. BOTH UZBEKISTAN AND RUSSIA
HAVE THE ABILITY TO TURN THE ECONOMIC SCREWS ON TAJIKSITAN -- OR
MAKE THINGS EASIER, TO INFLUENCE VOTES. WE NOTE MOSCOW RADIO
COMMENTARY AUGUST 7 DESCRIBED ABDULLAJANOV AS LIKELY TO GET MOST
OF THE RUSSIAN MINORITY VOTE AS HE HAD CHAMPIONED BOTH USE OF
RUSSIAN AS AN OFFICIAL LANGUAGE AND DUAL CITIZENSHIP FOR RUSSIANS
LIVING IN TAJIKISTAN.


12. THE ONLY ASSESSMENT THAT CAN BE MADE WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
POINT IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A HARD FOUGHT CONTEST
FOR PRESIDENT. INTERNATIONAL MONITORING WILL BE CRITICAL IF
THERE IS TO BE ANY REALISTIC HOPE THAT THE VOTERS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF MAKING A FREE AND FAIR CHOICE.

MCWILLIAMS