REACTIONS TO RELEASE OF FEB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 02731

E.O. 12356: N.A.
TAGS: PGOV MARR PINS KJUS VE
SUBJECT: REACTIONS TO RELEASE OF FEB
92 COUP LEADER HUGO CHAVEZ

REF: A) CARACAS 2512, B) CARACAS 2270



1. (U) SUMMARY: POLITICAL REACTION TO THE RELEASE OF
THE PRINCIPAL LEADER OF THE FEBRUARY 1992 MILITARY COUP,
LTC HUGO CHAVEZ, HAS RANGED FROM "GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY" TO
WARNINGS THAT IT SENDS SIGNALS TO THE ARMED FORCES THAT IT
CAN ACT WITH IMPUNITY. FOR HIS PART, CHAVEZ HAS EMBRACED
THE PUBLIC SPOTLIGHT AND ACTIVELY TAKEN UP HIS NEW
POLITICAL ROLE IN A SERIES OF INTERVIEWS AND
PRONOUNCEMENTS. END SUMMARY


2. (U) IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE RELEASE OF THE LEADER OF
THE FEBRUARY 1992 MILITARY COUP (REF A),LTC HUGO CHAVEZ,
VENEZUELAN NEWSPAPERS WERE FULL OF REACTIONS FROM
POLITICAL LEADERS AND PREMONITIONS ON WHAT THE RELEASE
WILL MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF VENEZUELAN DEMOCRACY. ONE OF
THE FIRST TO STRONGLY CRITICIZE THE DECISION WAS ACCION
DEMOCRATICA (AD) EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MEMBER EMILIO
RONDON. ACCORDING TO RONDON, THE PARDON OF CHAVEZ AND
OTHER COUP PARTICIPANTS WILL SIGNAL THE MILITARY THAT IT
CAN ACT WITH IMPUNITY. HE SAID THAT RATHER THAN
ESTABLISHING HARMONY AMONG MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES,
THE PARDONS WILL BE AN IRRITANT TO THOSE MEMBERS OF THE
ARMED FORCES WHO DEFENDED THE GOVERNMENT, ESPECIALLY SINCE
MANY OF THOSE WHO TOOK UP ARMS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT ARE
NOW BEING HAILED AS NATIONAL HEROES.


3. (C) RONDON'S CONCERNS ABOUT DISQUIET IN THE MILITARY
OVER THE PARDONS WERE SEEMINGLY CONFIRMED BY PRESS
INTERVIEWS WITH UNNAMED CIVILIAN AND MILITARY MEMBERS OF
THE MILITARY JUSTICE SYSTEM. THESE ANONYMOUS SOURCES SAW
THE RELEASE OF THE COUP PARTICIPANTS AS A SIGN OF A LACK
OF AUTHORITY AND WILLPOWER ON THE PART OF THE CALDERA
ADMINISTRATION. (COMMENT: THAT SOME MEMBERS OF THE
MILITARY COURT SYSTEM ARE LESS THAN HAPPY WITH THE PARDONS
OF THE 1992 COUP PLOTTERS IS HARDLY SURPRISING -- THEY
WOULD VIEW THE GRANTING OF PRE-TRIAL PARDONS AS THE
JUDICIAL EQUIVALENT OF SWEEPING THE ISSUE OF THE REBELLION
UNDER THE RUG AND THUS DAMAGING THE INTEGRITY OF THE
MILITARY'S JUSTICE SYSTEM. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE ARE NOT
AWARE OF ANY SERIOUS SIGNS OF MILITARY DISCONTENT WITH THE
POLITICAL DECISION TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM OF THE COUP
PLOTTERS VIA PARDONS AND THEIR DISMISSAL FROM THE ARMED
FORCES. END COMMENT)


4. (U) THE PRESIDENT OF THE SOCIAL CHRISTIAN COPEI
PARTY, HILARION CARDOZO, SAID THE RELEASE OF THE COUP
PARTICIPANTS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITHOUT COMPROMISING THE
INTEGRITY OF THE ARMED FORCES AS AN APOLITICAL AND
NON-DELIBERATIVE INSTITUTION. HE SEES THE PARDONS AS A
POSITIVE STEP FOR THE COUNTRY, AND CALLED ON CHAVEZ AND
OTHER LEADERS OF THE COUP TO UTILIZE THE POLITICAL
PROCESS, RATHER THAN ARMED INSURRECTION, TO EFFECT CHANGE.


5. (U) IN KEEPING WITH THE POPULIST SENTIMENT IN SUPPORT
OF THE COUP PLOTTERS, THE ARCHBISHOP OF CARACAS JOSE ALI
LEBRUN SAID THE PARDONS ARE "GOOD FOR DEMOCRACY" AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPIRIT OF PACIFICATION NEEDED IN
VENEZUELA. HE AGREES WITH PRESIDENT CALDERA THAT THE
RELEASE WILL HELP PUT THE "HOUSE IN ORDER".


6. (C) IN A RELATED ISSUE THAT WON'T SEEM TO GO AWAY,
"MOVIMIENTO AL SOCIALISMO" (MAS) PARTY MEMBER LUIS MANUEL
ESCULPI HAS ONCE AGAIN CALLED FOR A CONGRESSIONAL
INVESTIGATION INTO A TRIP MADE BY FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER
RADEMES MUNOZ LEON (REF B). THE NEW CALL TO INVESTIGATE
STEMS FROM CHARGES MADE BY CHAVEZ THAT MUNOZ WAS ON A
MISSION TO THE US LAST SEPTEMBER TO SECURE THE NEUTRALITY
OF THE USG IN THE EVENT OF A HIGH LEVEL COUP IN
VENEZUELA. (COMMENT: CONGRESSIONAL DISINTEREST IN THIS
ISSUE WILL ASSURE AN INVESTIGATION WILL NOT COME TO
FRUITION. WE SEE THIS AS MAS, ONCE AGAIN, TRYING TO MAKE
POLITICAL GAIN FROM THE SITUATION.)


7. (C) SINCE HIS RELEASE, CHAVEZ HAS BATHED IN THE
POLITICAL SPOTLIGHT AND, THROUGH A SERIES OF INTERVIEWS,
PRESS CONFERENCES, AND TRIPS, EMBRACED HIS NEW CIVILIAN,
POLITICAL ROLE. IN AN APRIL 4 INTERVIEW, FOR EXAMPLE, HE
CONTINUED HIS ACCUSATION THAT THEN DEFENSE MINISTER MUNOZ
LEON WAS PLANNING A COUP IN LATE 1993, ALTHOUGH HE
ADMITTED HE HAD NO PROOF. REACTING TO FORMER PRESIDENT
CARLOS ANDRES PEREZ' RECENT STATEMENT THAT HE INTENDS TO
RE-ENTER POLITICS AND MAY ONCE AGAIN SEEK THE PRESIDENCY
(ONCE CLEARED BY THE SUPREME COURT),CHAVEZ WARNED THAT
SHOULD CAP RETURN TO POWER HE AND HIS FOLLOWERS WOULD
"FIGHT HIM FROM THE MOUNTAINS." HE ALSO SUGGESTED, RATHER
STRANGELY, THAT MUNOZ AND CAP WERE SOMEHOW INVOLVED IN A
SCHEME TO SURRENDER VENEZUELAN SOVEREIGNTY IN THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA.


8. (C) COMMENT: A SHREWD AND EXPERIENCED POLITICIAN,
CALDERA KNOWS THAT TIMING IS EVERYTHING. CHAVEZ WAS
RELEASED ON THE SATURDAY BEFORE VENEZUELA SHUT DOWN FOR
EASTER WEEK. THE PAPERS FROM SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY AFTER
THE RELEASE WERE FILLED WITH STORIES ON CHAVEZ, HIS
POPULAR SUPPORT, AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR DEMOCRATIC
PROCESSES. THERE WERE NO NEWSPAPERS PUBLISHED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AND THE CITY WAS EMPTY FOR EASTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BY THE TIME PEOPLE RETURNED TO TOWN ON MONDAY,
THE HEADLINES WERE BACK TO WHAT CONCERNS VENEZUELANS MOST;
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY. THE BIG STORY IS THE REOPENING
OF BANCO LATINO.


9. (C) CHAVEZ, OF COURSE, INTENDS TO KEEP HIMSELF IN THE
HEADLINES. HE IS CLEARLY CHARISMATIC AND ARTICULATE, AND
DEFT AT USING HIS STATUS AS A HERO -- AT LEAST IN THE EYES
OF SOME -- TO BUILD A POLITICAL MOVEMENT. HIS IDEOLOGY AS
EXPRESSED IN VARIOUS INTERVIEWS, INCLUDING HIS ANTI-US
BIAS AND HIS OPEN THREAT OF ANOTHER COUP ATTEMPT SHOULD
CAP BE RE-ELECTED (AN UNLIKELY EVENT),REVEAL AN
ESSENTIALLY PRIMITIVE AND FUNDAMENTALIST APPROACH. HE HAS
BEEN PUBLICLY LABELLED AS A "CRETIN" BY AN INFLUENTIAL
JOURNALIST, A VIEW WHICH IS SHARED BY MOST OF THE
POLITICAL CLASS IN VENEZUELA. IT IS AN OPEN QUESTION
WHETHER A CHAVEZ WITHOUT HIS RED BERET AND MARTYR STATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO ATTRACT SIGNIFICANT POPULAR SUPPORT.


DAVIDOW