CASTRO SAYS HE WILL GO IF THE PEOPLE CHOOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 006161


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PHUM PREF CU AR
SUBJECT: CASTRO SAYS HE WILL GO IF THE PEOPLE CHOOSE
IT - WITH CONDITIONS

REF: (A) 93 BUENOS AIRES 7070, (B) 93 STATE 227692


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT


2. AT HIS REQUEST, AMBASSADOR AND POLCOUNS MET
SEPTEMBER 14 WITH A LEADING MEMBER OF THE RADICAL
CIVIC UNION, CESAR JAROSLAVSKY, FOR A DISCUSSION ABOUT
CUBA. JAROSLAVSKY WAS INVOLVED LAST YEAR WITH A
PERSONAL APPEAL TO FIDEL CASTRO FOR THE RELEASE OF
CUBAN POLITICAL PRISONER MARIO CHAVES DE ARMAS AND FOR
THE TRAVEL OF HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST ELIZARDO SANCHEZ
(REFTELS). JAROSLAVSKY, WHO HAS GONE TO CUBA FOR SOME
YEARS FOR MEDICAL TREATMENT, IS REPORTEDLY A PERSONAL
FRIEND OF CASTRO DESPITE HIS CENTRIST POLITICAL
ORIENTATION.


3. WASTING LITTLE TIME, JAROSLAVSKY CAME RIGHT TO HIS
POINT: HE HAD RECENTLY SPENT SOME TIME WITH CASTRO IN
HAVANA AND WISHED TO SHARE HIS IMPRESSIONS.
JAROSLAVSKY WAS ALARMED BY WHAT HE SAW AS A SITUATION
SPINNING OUT OF THE CONTROL OF FIDEL OR THE UNITED
STATES. ACCORDING TO JAROSLAVSKY, CASTRO IS NOW
WILLING TO STEP ASIDE IF NECESSARY BECAUSE HE NOW
REALIZES THAT CUBA'S CRISIS CANNOT CONTINUE WITHOUT
DANGER OF A COMPLETE BREAKDOWN AND/OR A COUP LED BY
SECURITY FORCES. CASTRO REPORTEDLY SEES NATIONAL
ELECTIONS AS THE WAY OUT OF CUBA'S CURRENT DILEMMA BUT
CANNOT ENVISION HOW ELECTIONS COULD TAKE PLACE GIVEN
CURRENT SOCIAL TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. CASTRO
REPORTEDLY BELIEVES THAT FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS
(I.E., APPARENTLY A VOTE IN WHICH HE HAS A CHANCE TO
WIN) COULD NOT BE HELD UNTIL AT LEAST A MODICUM OF
STABILITY AND BASIC ECONOMIC NECESSITIES (FOOD) CAN BE
GUARANTEED.


4. JAROSLAVSKY COMMENTED THAT THIS WAS NOT A PLEA FOR
THE U.S. TO EASE ITS ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AGAINST CUBA;
HE REALIZED THAT U.S. POLICY WAS NOT LIKELY TO SHIFT
WITHOUT CONCRETE EVIDENCE OF REFORM IN CUBA. HOWEVER,
A TRANSITION WAS UNDERWAY IN CUBA WHICH WOULD GO DOWN
ONE OF TWO PATHS: GENUINE POPULAR ELECTIONS AND
RECONSTRUCTION OF THE COUNTRY, OR SOCIAL CHAOS AND A
LIKELY MILITARY/SECURITY REGIME POSING A FAR GREATER
THREAT TO THE U.S. THAN CASTRO DOES TODAY.
JAROSLAVSKY BELIEVED THE U.S. WOULD HELP THIS
TRANSITION COME OUT THE "RIGHT WAY" JUST BY ALLOWING,
FOR EXAMPLE, LIMITED DONATIONS BY OTHER FOOD
EXPORTERS, SUCH AS ARGENTINA, TO CUBA. ALLOWING BASIC
THIRD PARTY ASSISTANCE TO OCCUR DISCREETLY WOULD NOT
SERIOUSLY UNDERMINE THE TOUGH U.S. LINE TOWARD CUBA
AND WOULD PROVIDE A REAL TEST OF CASTRO'S WILLINGNESS
TO PROVE HIS REGIME'S POPULARITY AT THE BALLOT BOX.
JAROSLAVSKY CITED THE EXAMPLE OF GORBACHEV FACING A
NEARLY SUCCESSFUL MILITARY COUP AS CLEAR EVIDENCE OF
WHAT MIGHT WELL BE THE ALTERNATIVE IN CUBA.


5. COMMENT: JAROSLAVSKY'S BASIC MESSAGE--ONE OFTEN
HEARD IN LATIN AMERICA--WAS THAT LESS HEAT ON CASTRO
WOULD MAKE HIM MOVE TOWARD A DEMOCRATIC TEST OF
SUPPORT FOR HIS REGIME. WE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT MANY
BELIEVED IT MIGHT BE JUST AS OR MORE LIKELY TO STIFFEN
RESISTANCE TO REFORM. JAROSLAVSKY STRESSED, WITH
SCARCELY A WINK, THAT HE WAS NOT THE BEARER OF ANY
MESSAGE FROM CASTRO TO THE UNITED STATES. WITH THE
CASTRO REGIME CLEARLY TRYING TO MAKE THE BEST OF A
TERRIBLE SITUATION, SUCH PLEAS FOR BREATHING ROOM ARE
LIKELY TO PROLIFERATE IN CASTRO'S THOUSANDS OF
"PERSONAL CHANNELS" THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE
ABILITY OF THE CUBAN GOVERNMENT TO ORGANIZE ELECTIONS
UNDER CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES MAY BE DOUBTFUL. OF
COURSE, IT IS JUST AS EASY TO BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THEIR
CONVERSION TO DEMOCRACY IN THE THROES OF ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL CRISIS. AMBASSADOR TOLD JAROSLAVSKY THAT WE
WOULD PASS HIS COMMENTS TO WASHINGTON; HE RESPONDED
THAT HE EXPECTED NO ANSWER AND HOPED ONLY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A PEACEFUL POLITICAL TRANSITION TO
DEMOCRACY IN CUBA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE INTEREST OF
ALL.


CHEEK