BURMA'S GENERALS PROMOTE THEMSELVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 01836


DEPT FOR EAP/TB, INR/B, AND INM/AMB BORG
CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINR MARR BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S GENERALS PROMOTE THEMSELVES

REF: (A) FBIS BKK 291251Z MAR 93,
- (B) FBIS BKK 291253Z MAR 93,
- (C) FBIS BKK 270923Z MAR 93


1. (C) SUMMARY: BURMA'S RULING STATE LAW AND ORDER
RESTORATION COUNCIL (SLORC) PROMOTED MORE THAN A DOZEN
TOP GENERALS IN CONNECTION WITH THE MARCH 27 ARMED
FORCES DAY CELEBRATION. A MODEST RESTRUCTURING OF THE
MILITARY HIERARCHY IS ALSO IN THE WORKS, WITH EASTERN
REGIONAL COMMANDER MAUNG AYE SLATED TO FILL THE
JUNTA'S NOMINAL NUMBER TWO POSITION. INTELLIGENCE
CHIEF KHIN NYUNT WILL GET A SOMEWHAT FANCIER TITLE AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CALL MOST OF THE SHOTS. IN
OTHER ARMED FORCES DAY DEVELOPMENTS, THOUGH CHIEF OF
STATE THAN SHWE'S SPEECH WAS LESS STRIDENT THAN
SIMILAR MESSAGES BY HIS PREDECESSOR, IT GAVE NO HINT
OF COMPROMISE ON THE MILITARY'S DEMAND FOR A LEADING
ROLE IN BURMA'S FUTURE POLITICAL SYSTEM. IN KEEPING
WITH HIS DISAPPEARANCE FROM PUBLIC VIEW SINCE BEING
REPLACED LAST YEAR, FORMER SLORC CHAIRMAN SAW MAUNG'S
HISTORICAL ROLE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM THE MAN WHO
"SAVED BURMA" TO THAT OF A NON-PERSON. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) CAREFUL OBSERVERS OF THE BURMESE OFFICIAL
MEDIA LEARNED THIS WEEK THAT A NUMBER OF TOP MILITARY
OFFICERS WERE PROMOTED ON THE MARCH 27 ARMED FORCES
DAY HOLIDAY (REFS A AND B). NONE OF THE CHANGES WAS
SPECIFICALLY ANNOUNCED, BUT REPORTS ON THE ARMED
FORCES DAY CEREMONIES INCLUDE NEW TITLES WHICH CONFIRM
THAT AT LEAST TWELVE MAJOR GENERALS WERE ELEVATED TO
THE THREE-STAR LIEUTENANT GENERAL RANK. AMONG THOSE
PROMOTED WERE THE FOLLOWING SEVEN SLORC MEMBERS, ALL
OF WHOM HAD BEEN TRANSFERRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
MONTHS FROM POSITIONS AS REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDERS
TO TOP JOBS IN GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES:

-- MINISTER FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BORDER AREAS AND
NATIONAL RACES MAUNG THINT (FORMERLY NORTHEAST
REGIONAL COMMANDER);

-- MINISTER OF LABOR AYE THOUNG (FORMERLY SOUTHERN
COMMANDER) ;

-- MINISTER OF MINES KYAW MIN (NORTHWESTERN COMMAND);

-- MINISTER OF HOTELS AND TOURISM KYAW BA (NORTHERN
COMMAND) ;

-- MINISTER OF TRADE TUN KYI (CENTRAL COMMAND);

-- MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND DEFENSE SERVICES
ADJUTANT GENERAL MYINT AUNG (SOUTHEASTERN COMMAND);
AND

-- MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS MYA THINN (WESTERN
COMMAND) .

RELIGIOUS AFFAIRS MINISTER MYO NYUNT WAS ALSO PROMOTED
FROM MAJOR GENERAL TO LIEUTENANT GENERAL, THOUGH HE
RETAINS HIS POST AS RANGOON REGIONAL COMMANDER FOR THE
TIME BEING.


3. (C) FOUR OTHER MAJOR GENERALS WERE PROMOTED TO
LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND WILL SOON BE GIVEN NEW POSTS,
ACCORDING TO MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SOURCES:

-- EASTERN REGIONAL COMMANDER MAUNG AYE WILL BECOME
THE NOMINAL "NUMBER TWO" IN THE MILITARY HIERARCHY,
FILLING A VACANCY THAT HAS EXISTED SINCE GENERAL THAN
SHWE REPLACED SENIOR GENERAL SAW MAUNG AS SLORC
CHAIRMAN AND DEFENSE SERVICES COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF
ALMOST A YEAR AGO. MOST SOURCES BELIEVE THAT MAUNG
AYE WILL SOON BECOME DEPUTY CINC OF THE DEFENSE
SERVICES (TATMADAW) BUT REMAIN UNCERTAIN WHETHER HE
WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE VACANT ARMY CINC AND/OR SLORC
DEPUTY CHAIRMANSHIP POSITIONS. THAN SHWE HAD OCCUPIED
THESE POSTS CONCURRENTLY WITH THE NUMBER TWO
"TATMADAW" SLOT.

-- POWERFUL MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF KHIN NYUNT
WILL REPORTEDLY MOVE INTO A NEWLY CREATED THREE-STAR
POSITION AS DIRECTOR OF "STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE"
(SOURCES ARE UNSURE OF THE PRECISE TITLE) WHILE
RETAINING HIS POSITION AS SLORC SECRETARY-1. HE MAY
GIVE UP THE FORMAL DESIGNATION AS DIRECTOR OF DEFENSE
SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (DDSI) BUT HIS NEW, BROADER
DUTIES WILL INCLUDE OVERSIGHT OF DDSI AS WELL AS ALL
OTHER MILITARY AND CIVILIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES.

-- TIN 00 WILL KEEP HIS JOB AS SLORC SECRETARY-2 WHILE
MOVING FROM ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF TO HEAD ONE OF THE
MILITARY'S TWO BUREAUX OF SPECIAL OPERATIONS (BSO-I).
HE REPLACES LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND MINISTER OF
INDUSTRY-1 SEIN AUNG IN THIS POSITION, RESPONSIBLE FOR
COORDINATING ALL MILITARY OPERATIONS IN UPPER BURMA.

-- MILITARY APPOINTMENTS SECRETARY MAUNG HLA WILL
REPLACE LIEUTENANT GENERAL AND FORESTRY MINISTER CHIT
SWE AS HEAD OF THE OTHER SPECIAL OPERATIONS BUREAU
(BSO-II),RESPONSIBLE FOR LOWER BURMA MILITARY ACTIONS.


4. (LOU) CHIEF OF STATE THAN SHWE DELIVERED THE
TRADITIONAL ARMED FORCES DAY ADDRESS FOCUSING ON THE
TATMADAW'S HISTORY IN THE STRUGGLES AGAINST
IMPERIALISM, FASCISM, AND INTERNAL INSURGENCY (REF C).
THE SPEECH WAS LESS HARD-LINE THAN THOSE GIVEN BY SAW
MAUNG ON THIS OCCASION IN RECENT YEARS, OMITTING
HOSTILE REFERENCES TO THE BRITISH AND JAPANESE WHICH
HAD RILED THOSE NATIONS' DEFENSE ATTACHES. THAN SHWE
SHOWED NO SIGN OF COMPROMISING ON DOMESTIC POLITICAL
ISSUES, HOWEVER: WHILE HE REPEATED THE MILITARY'S
STANDARD PROMISE TO TRANSFER POWER AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE, HE INSISTED THAT THE TATMADAW MUST PLAY A
LEADING ROLE IN BURMA'S FUTURE POLITICAL SYSTEM.


5. (LOU) ALSO IN CONNECTION WITH ARMED FORCES DAY,
THE GOB PUBLISHED SPECIAL NEWSPAPER SUPPLEMENTS AND
ORGANIZED AN EXHIBIT ON THE HISTORY OF THE TATMADAW
AND ITS LEADING PERSONALITIES. SEVERAL OBSERVERS
NOTED THE STARK CONTRAST WITH THE TENOR OF LAST YEAR'S
COMMEMORATION, WHICH FEATURED GUSHING TRIBUTES TO THE
MILITARY CAREER OF SLORC CHAIRMAN SAW MAUNG. THIS
YEAR THERE WERE NOTABLE GAPS WHERE THERE HAD ONCE BEEN
REFERENCES TO THE EX-CHIEF OF STATE. WHILE FORMER
DICTATOR NE WIN STILL FIGURES PROMINENTLY IN THE
TATMADAW'S HISTORY, SAW MAUNG -- THE MAN WHO ONCE
CLAIMED HE HAD "SAVED BURMA" -- HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A
NON-PERSON.


6. (C) COMMENT: THIS YEAR'S ARMED FORCES DAY
PROMOTIONS APPEAR TO SIGNAL STABILITY RATHER THAN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHIN BURMA'S RULING CIRCLE.
SEVERAL OF THE RECENTLY APPOINTED GOVERNMENT MINISTERS
-- SUCH AS TUN KYI, KYAW BA, AND KYAW MIN -- WERE
PROBABLY GIVEN THEIR THIRD STARS AS BELATED PAY-OFFS
FOR THEIR EARLIER AGREEMENT (UNDER PRESSURE) TO GIVE
UP LUCRATIVE POSITIONS AS REGIONAL COMMANDERS.
PROMOTING VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SLORC'S MAJOR GENERALS
ALSO EASED THE WAY FOR KHIN NYUNT'S OWN ELEVATION TO
LIEUTENANT GENERAL: ELEVATING THE RELATIVELY JUNIOR
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE ALIENATED
THOSE WITH GREATER MILITARY SENIORITY. WHILE WE
ASSUME HE WILL SHOW DUE RESPECT FOR THE COMMANDING
ROLES OF THAN SHWE AND NOW MAUNG AYE, WE WOULD STILL
EXPECT KHIN NYUNT TO CALL THE SHOTS ON MOST DOMESTIC
AND FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES. WHATEVER HIS NEW FORMAL
TITLE, THIS WILL BE LESS IMPORTANT THAN THE ROLE HE
FIRMLY OCCUPIES AS POLITICAL STRATEGIST AND
DECISION-MAKER ON ALL IMPORTANT ISSUES.

JAMESON