Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
93PRETORIA5586
1993-04-27 10:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Pretoria
Cable title:  

FIGHTING PERCEPTIONS AND SUBSTANCE: THABO MBEKI

Tags:  PGOV SF 
pdf how-to read a cable
R 271024Z APR 93
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1137
INFO AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMCONSUL DURBAN
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 005586 

CAPE TOWN ALSO FOR EMBASSY, LONDON FOR MCKINLEY

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: FIGHTING PERCEPTIONS AND SUBSTANCE: THABO MBEKI

REFLECTS ON THE COURSE OF NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 005586

CAPE TOWN ALSO FOR EMBASSY, LONDON FOR MCKINLEY

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: FIGHTING PERCEPTIONS AND SUBSTANCE: THABO MBEKI

REFLECTS ON THE COURSE OF NEGOTIATIONS


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


2. AMBASSADOR CALLED ON ANC INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
DIRECTOR AND SENIOR NEGOTIATOR THABO MBEKI APRIL 23 TO
OBTAIN A READOUT ON THE STATE OF PLAY IN THE
NEGOTIATIONS. MBEKI WAS CONFIDENT THAT AGREEMENT CAN BE
REACHED ON A DATE CERTAIN FOR ELECTIONS BY THE END OF
MAY. THE SAG'S PROPOSAL OF EARLY FEBRUARY 1994 WOULD
GIVE NO HEARTBURN TO THE ANC. REGARDING THE TRANSITIONAL
EXECUTIVE COUNCIL (TEC),HE WAS LESS SANGUINE, NOTING
THAT VIRTUALLY NO WORK HAS BEEN DONE ON THE SUBCOUNCILS
FOR PUBLIC FINANCE, LOCAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT AND
THAT THERE ARE CONTINUING PROBLEMS ON SECURITY FORCES
OVERSIGHT. HE COMPLAINED OF A PERCEPTION, FANNED BY
ELEMENTS IN AND OUT OF GOVERNMENT, THAT THE ANC
LEADERSHIP IS NOT IN CONTROL OF A PRO-INSURRECTION
FACTION WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION. THAT PERCEPTION,
COMMUNICATED AS FACT IN ANALYSES REACHING DE KLERK'S
DESK, MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CUT A DEAL ON THE TRANSITION
WITH THE SAG, PARTICULARLY WHEN THE PRESSURE IS ON TO DO
SO.


3. THE AMBASSADOR SUGGESTED THAT IF THE SAG IS WORRIED
ABOUT THE ABILITY OF THE MODERATES TO MAINTAIN LEADERSHIP
IN THE ANC, IT CAN DO NO BETTER THAN MAKE THE NEGOTIATING
PROCESS CREDIBLE TO THE MAJORITY, THUS STRENGTHENING THE
POSITION OF ANC MODERATES. MBEKI ALSO WORRIED ABOUT HOW
TO DEAL WITH THE CONCERNED SOUTH AFRICANS GROUP (COSAG),
PARTICULARLY THE INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY, WHICH HAS NOT YET
BOUGHT INTO THE GAMEPLAN OF A CONSTITUTION DRAFTED BY AN
ELECTED BODY. AMBASSADOR ADVISED THE ANC TO PROPOSE A
REASONABLE SETTLEMENT ON REGIONALISM, SHORED UP BY THE
BUSINESS COMMUNITY. SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD WEAKEN ANY
REASON FOR THEIR WALKING OUT.


4. WE FOUND MBEKI GENERALLY OPTIMISTIC THAT THE
NEGOTIATIONS WOULD ADHERE TO THE ENVISAGED TIME FRAMES,
BUT CONCERNED THAT THE SAG MAY LOOK FOR WAYS TO BACKTRACK
ON COMMITMENTS AS THE DEADLINE FOR THEIR IMPLEMENTATION
APPROACHES. END SUMMARY.

-------------- --
ELECTION DATE NOT A PROBLEM BUT MAJORITY RULE?
-------------- --


5. MBEKI LED OFF BY SHOWING AMBASSADOR A SAG PROPOSAL
FOR THE SHAPE OF THE INTERIM GOVERNMENT. MBEKI POINTED
OUT THAT IT APPEARED REASONABLE AFTER A CURSORY
EXAMINATION, EXCEPT FOR DECISION-MAKING IN THE COUNCIL OF

LEADERS. THAT NEW BODY, A SORT OF SUPER CABINET
CONSISTING OF THE LEADERS OF EACH OF THE POLITICAL
PARTIES IN THE GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY (GONU),WOULD
TAKE DECISIONS ON MAJOR POLICIES BY MAJORITY VOTE, EACH
LEADER HAVING ONE VOTE. THE NET EFFECT IS TO LESSEN THE
POWER OF THE CABINET AND THE VALUE OF THE PROPORTIONAL
ELECTORAL STRENGTH OF THE PARTICIPANTS. THE ANC, WHILE
NOT OPPOSED TO SOME SORT OF COUNCIL, WILL HAVE TO SEEK
MODIFICATION OF BOTH ITS DEGREE OF AUTHORITY AND
PROCEDURE.


6. ON THE ISSUE OF A DATE FOR ELECTIONS, MBEKI FORESEES
NO PROBLEM. THE TWO PRESIDENTS, MANDELA AND DE KLERK,
MET IN MARCH AND AGREED TO USE THE MONTH OF APRIL TO
PERSUADE THEIR RESPECTIVE ALLIES OF THE NEED TO MOVE ON
THIS QUESTION. THE SAG HAS PROPOSED A DATE IN EARLY
FEBRUARY 1994, TO WHICH THE ANC AND ITS ALLIES CAN AGREE.
MBEKI IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE IFP, WHICH HAS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SCENARIO FOR WHEN ELECTIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE.
AMBASSADOR SUGGESTED THAT BOTH SAG AND ANC WORK ON THE
IFP TO CHANGE ITS POSITION. HE ADDED THAT, AS BUTHELEZI
TRAVELS TO LONDON THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THE ANC MIGHT
SUGGEST THE BRITISH PRESS HIM AS WELL.

--------------
TEC: PLENTY OF UNFINISHED BUSINESS
--------------


7. "IT SEEMS PEOPLE FORGOT CODESA'S DECISIONS," MBEKI
MUSED IN RESPONSE TO AMBASSADOR'S QUERY ABOUT THE STATE
OF AGREEMENT ON THE POWERS AND FUNCTIONS OF THE TEC.
NOTHING HAS HAPPENED SINCE LAST YEAR ON THE SUBCOUNCIL
DEALING WITH PUBLIC FINANCE. CONFUSION REIGNS ON THE
FUNCTION OF A SUBCOUNCIL FOR REGIONAL AND LOCAL
GOVERNMENT, TO WHICH THE ANC CONTRIBUTED BY SUGGESTING
THAT THE NEGOTIATORS GO BACK TO THE USE OF SOUTH AFRICA'S
FOUR PROVINCES. THIS GOES COUNTER TO THE ANC'S OWN
POSITION ON USE OF NINE OR TEN REGIONS AND MBEKI SAID THE
ANC WOULD GO BACK TO THIS IN THE NEXT BILATERAL WITH THE
SAG. IT IS UNCLEAR NEVERTHELESS HOW SUCH A SUBCOUNCIL
WOULD IMPACT ON THE PROCESS OF GOVERNING, REINCORPORATION
OF THE HOMELANDS OR PREPARATIONS FOR THE ELECTION. BROAD
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED WITH THE GOVERNMENT REGARDING
THE SUBCOUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS, SINCE PIK BOTHA, NOW
CONCERNED ABOUT HIS PLACE IN HISTORY AS LEADER OF THE
ANTIAPARTHEID FORCES IN THE NATIONAL PARTY, WANTS TO MOVE
AHEAD QUICKLY.


8. UMKHONTO WE SIZWE COMMANDER JOE MODISE HAD BEEN SENT
THAT MORNING TO CAPE TOWN TO MEET WITH HIS MILITARY
COUNTERPART IN A BID TO UNBLOCK NEGOTIATIONS ON THE
SUBCOUNCIL PERTAINING TO THE SECURITY FORCES. MBEKI
OPINED THAT THE NEGOTIATORS MUST MOVE AWAY FROM THE
PHRASE "JOINT CONTROL" WHICH THE SADF THINKS IS TOO
LOADED. THE ANC WANTS THE POLITICAL AUTHORITY TO SAY
WHAT HAPPENS VIS-A-VIS THE ARMED FORCES. THUS, JOINT
SUPERVISION MIGHT BE THE MORE APT TERM. THE ANC DOES NOT
WANT OPERATIONAL CONTROL OVER THE SADF. MBEKI TOLD
MODISE TO MAKE THAT POINT VERY CLEAR TO THE SADF.

--------------
THE INSURRECTIONIST FACTION
--------------


9. IN THIS CONNECTION, MBEKI EXPLAINED THAT PART OF THE
PROBLEM ON CLINCHING A DEAL ON THE SECURITY FORCES IS THE
FACT THAT, IN AND OUT OF GOVERNMENT, THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO
SAY THAT THE ANC'S CURRENT PRAGMATIC LEADERSHIP MAY SOON
BE REPLACED BY AN INSURRECTIONIST FACTION. IF THE SAG
AGREES TO JOINT CONTROL WITH THIS LEADERSHIP, THEN THE
SUCCESSORS WILL HAVE THE LEGAL INSTRUMENT WITH WHICH TO
WREAK HAVOC WITH THE SECURITY FORCES. IT IS A POINT OF
"ULTRASENSITIVITY" IN THE SAG. SUCH AN ANALYSIS HAS EVEN
REACHED DE KLERK'S DESK AND HAS BEEN PRESENTED AS FACT.
HOW TO DISPEL SUCH PERCEPTIONS? THEY HAVE REPERCUSSIONS
ON ANC POLICY MAKING, GIVING HARDLINERS AMMUNITION AND
RESONANCE WHEN THEY ARGUE THAT SAG FAILURE TO MOVE AT THE
NEGOTIATING TABLE MEANS IT WANTS TO CLING TO POWER.


10. CONTINUING, MBEKI VOICED CONCERN OVER EXAGGERATED
MEDIA FOCUS ON THE "ANGER" OF THE ANC RANK AND FILE
FOLLOWING CHRIS HANI'S ASSASSINATION. OLIVER TAMBO AND
HE WENT TO HANI'S HOME FOLLOWING THE ASSASSINATION AND
DID NOT FIND THE PEOPLE MILLING AROUND TO BE ANGRY. THE
RANK AND FILE WERE OUTRAGED AND UPSET, BUT NOT ANGRY IN
A REVOLUTIONARY OR UNCONTROLLABLE SENSE. MARCHERS IN
JOHANNESBURG APRIL 17, HE SAID, IN FACT BEAT LOOTERS AND
TURNED THEM OVER TO THE POLICE. AMBASSADOR COMMENTED
THAT, PUT IN PERSPECTIVE, THE AMOUNT OF VIOLENCE WAS
MINIMAL IN PROPORTION TO THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO TURNED
OUT FOR VARIOUS EVENTS MARKING HANI'S DEATH. IF THE SAG
IS WORRIED ABOUT THE STABILITY OF THE ANC LEADERSHIP IT
IS DEALING WITH, THE AMBASSADOR ADDED, THEN THE
GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO REINFORCE THE
CREDIBILITY OF THAT LEADERSHIP. THE WAY TO DO SO IS
THROUGH MAKING THE NEGOTIATIONS CREDIBLE IN TERMS OF REAL
DEMOCRACY AND THEREBY MAKING THE ANC'S LEADERSHIP, WHICH
IS COMMITTED TO NEGOTIATIONS, UNCHALLENGEABLE.

--------------
HOW TO DEAL WITH COSAG?
--------------


11. "WHAT HAPPENS IF WE ARE UNABLE TO CONVINCE COSAG?"
MBEKI PONDERED, ONCE THE SAG AND ANC HAVE REACHED
AGREEMENT ON IMPLEMENTING THE TRANSITION. COSAG COULD
VERY WELL BLOCK THE PROCESS, A FACT THAT MIGHT REQUIRE
UNSPECIFIED UNILATERAL ACTION BY THE SAG. BUTHELEZI
MIGHT WELL WALK OUT. THE SAG AND ANC HAVE NOT YET
DECIDED WHETHER THE PROCESS WOULD THEN MOVE FORWARD
WITHOUT HIM. AMBASSADOR REMARKED THAT BUTHELEZI IS
ALREADY UNHAPPY WITH THE SPEED AT WHICH THE PROCESS IS
MOVING. IT BEHOOVES THE ANC TO PROPOSE A REASONABLE
SETTLEMENT ON REGIONALISM, BUTHELEZI'S MOST LEGITIMATE
CONCERN. JOE MATTHEWS, AT THE ASPEN CONFERENCE, HAD
SUGGESTED THAT THE ANC AND IFP MIGHT NOT BE SO FAR APART
ON THIS ONE. IF THIS ISSUE IS ADDRESSED ADEQUATELY AND
BUTHELEZI'S BUSINESS COMMUNITY SUPPORTERS BEGIN SAYING
"WE WANT A SETTLEMENT," HIS ARGUMENTS FOR WALKING OUT
WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKENED, ALTHOUGH ONE COULD NOT
RULE OUT A BUTHELEZI WALKOUT EVEN THEN. MOREOVER, SUCH
AN APPROACH WOULD AVOID THE NEED TO RIDE ROUGHSHOD OVER
BUTHELEZI. MBEKI AGREED AND NOTED THAT A CONVENIENT DATE
HAS NOT YET BEEN FOUND TO MEET WITH THE IFP FOR
CONSTITUTIONAL DISCUSSIONS.


12. AMBASSADOR INFORMED MBEKI THAT HE HAD MET WITH
BOPHUTHATSWANA "PRESIDENT" MANGOPE IN DECEMBER AND FOUND
HIM UNMOVING ON THE QUESTION OF REINCORPORATION. MBEKI
REPLIED THAT MANGOPE SEES THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL AND
WANTS IN PLACE A REGIME WITH WHICH HE IS COMFORTABLE
BEFORE REINCORPORATING. THE SAG HAS PRESENTED MANGOPE A
PAPER ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF NOT REINCORPORATING, AND
ROELF MEYER URGED BUTHELEZI TO GET HIS ALLIES TO MOVE ON
IT. PIK BOTHA HAS GIVEN THE ANC ASSURANCES THAT THE SAG
WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE ON. THE ANC, MBEKI SAID, WILL
MEET MANGOPE AGAIN TO TRY TO PERSUADE HIM TO JOIN THE
NEGOTIATIONS' CONSENSUS.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


13. WE FOUND MBEKI GENERALLY UPBEAT ABOUT THE
APPROACHING ENDGAME. HE WAS MOST CONCERNED THAT SAG
JITTERS AS THE FINALITY OF IT SINKS IN MAY CAUSE IT TO
BACKTRACK ON AGREEMENTS. HE SAID AS MUCH MERELY BY
SHOWING US THE SAG'S PROPOSAL FOR THE SHAPE OF THE
INTERIM GOVERNMENT.


14. WE FOUND MUCH TO THINK ABOUT IN MBEKI'S ASSESSMENT
THAT UNCHALLENGED, ERRONEOUS PERCEPTIONS HAVE A NOXIOUS
IMPACT ON THE COURSE OF NEGOTIATIONS. THERE IS A DANGER
OF CHALLENGE TO ANC LEADERSHIP FROM THE LEFT, BUT IT IS
MORE OUTSIDE THAN WITHIN THE ANC. MOREOVER, WE CONCUR
THAT THE POPULAR MOOD HERE IS NOT ONE OF DESTRUCTION. WE
INTEND TO UNDERSCORE THAT POINT IN PUBLIC STATEMENTS AND
IN OUR CONVERSATIONS WITH GOVERNMENT FIGURES AND THE
BUSINESS COMMUNITY, WHILE UNDERSCORING THE NEED FOR
SPEEDY RESULTS FROM THE NEGOTIATIONS IN ORDER TO PRESERVE
THAT SITUATION. END COMMENT.

LYMAN