SAM HUNTINGTON'S "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS:" APOCALYPSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 008764


STATE FOR S/P DIRECTOR LEWIS, EAP A/S LORD AND COUNSELOR WIRTH
USIA FOR DIRECTOR DUFFEY
OSD FOR USD/P WISNER

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL ID MY
SUBJECT: SAM HUNTINGTON'S "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS:" APOCALYPSE
WHEN?


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT


2. SUMMARY: SAM HUNTINGTON'S THESIS ABOUT THE "COMING CLASH OF
CIVILIZATIONS" HAS CAUGHT ON IN ASIA LIKE WILDFIRE. DEALING WITH
THE ISSUE IS AS GREAT A CHALLENGE FOR POLICY AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
AS ANY IN THE POST COLD WAR ERA. WE NEED TO MOUNT A MAJOR EFFORT
TO MEET THE CHALLENGE. END SUMMARY.


3. SAM HUNTINGTON'S GHOST LURKED IN EVERY SHADOWY CORNER AT THE
AUGUST 8-10 INDONESIA FORUM CONFERENCE ON ASIA-PACIFIC AND THE
NEW WORLD ORDER. AUSTRALIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER GARETH EVANS
PUBLICLY DEBUNKED HUNTINGTON'S "KULTURKAMPF" HYPOTHESES BUT
PRIVATELY CONFESSED THAT THEY WERE BECOMING AN IMPORTANT OBSTACLE
TO KEATING'S POLICY OF INTEGRATION WITH ASIA. INDONESIAN
SPEAKERS WARNED THAT THE RISE OF RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL TENSIONS
WOULD TURN THEIR FRAGILE COUNTRY INTO THE NEXT YUGOSLAVIA.
MALAYSIAN FINANCE MINISTER ANWAR IBRAHIM, HIS HAIR ON FIRE, USED
HIS KEYNOTE SPEECH TO ASSERT THAT THE HUNTINGTON "DOCTRINE"
REPRESENTED THE PREDOMINANT VIEW OF WESTERN INTELLECTUALS AND THE
CENTRAL CORE OF U.S. POLICY. HIS DIATRIBE GENERATED SPONTANEOUS
APPLAUSE FROM INDONESIAN INTELLECTUALS, WHO SHEEPISHLY APOLOGIZED
LATER.


4. THE "CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS" HAS MORE APPEAL THAN PREVIOUS
'BIG BANG' THEORIES SUCH AS "THE END OF HISTORY" OR "THE DECLINE
OF THE WEST" BECAUSE IT FITS BETTER INTO SOUND BITES OR BUMPER
STICKERS, AND BECAUSE IT POSITS AN OVERARCHING CONFLICT AROUND
WHICH THE "BRAVE NEW WORLD" WILL BE RESTRUCTURED. IT ALSO COMES
ALONG AT A TIME WHEN PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING OTHER THAN
COMMUNISM TO FEAR. WHILE HUNTINGTON HIMSELF PRESENTS HIS IDEAS
AS NOTHING MORE THAN A SERIES OF WORST-CASE HYPOTHESES, THE
DANGER IS THAT THE PROPHECY WILL BECOME SELF-FULFILLING AS MORE
PEOPLE BELIEVE IT AND ACT ON IT. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN
THE ISLAMIC WORLD, WHERE ANTI-WESTERN PARANOIA IS ALREADY AT A
HIGH PITCH. DEALING WITH THIS ISSUE THUS CAN BECOME A CHALLENGE
FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY - AND THE POLICIES UNDERPINNING IT - AS
SERIOUS AS DEALING WITH THE COLD WAR CONCEPT OF PEACEFUL
COEXISTENCE (OR, WHAT'S MINE IS MINE AND YOURS IS NEGOTIABLE).


5. WE NEED A UNIFYING COUNTER-THEME AROUND WHICH WE CAN BUILD
OUR RESPONSE. GARETH EVANS HAS CHOSEN "COMMUNITY AND
CONVERGENCE," WHICH IS NOT BAD AS A GOAL BUT SOUNDS TOO MUCH LIKE
THE TRIUMPH OF HOPE OVER REALITY. "GLOBAL INTEGRATION WITH
RESPECT FOR DIVERSITY" REQUIRES A LARGE BUMPER STICKER, BUT IS
MORE PRESCRIPTIVE. E PLURIBUS UNUM DOES WELL AMONG LATIN
SPEAKERS HERE, AS A FORERUNNER OF THE INDONESIAN NATIONAL MOTTO
"UNITY IN DIVERSITY".


6. WHATEVER THE SLOGAN, WE THINK A MAJOR CAMPAIGN IS CALLED FOR
TO COUNTER HUNTINGTONISM. ED DJEREDJIAN'S 1992 MERIDIAN HOUSE
SPEECH PROVIDES USEFUL AMMUNITION, BUT IT NEEDS UPDATING AND
INCREASED EMPHASIS ON WHAT WE ARE FOR RATHER THAN WHAT WE ARE
AGAINST. ALSO,AS WE ARE LEARNING, THE PROBLEM EXTENDS WELL BEYOND
THE MIDDLE EAST. IN INDONESIA ALONE THERE ARE FAULT LINES
BETWEEN HINDUS, CHRISTIANS, MUSLIMS, SECULARISTS AND
FUNDAMENTALISTS, NOT TO MENTION BETWEEN EAST AND WEST. WE WILL
CERTAINLY CARRY THE ISSUE TO THE INDONESIAN MEDIA, BUT WE NEED
MORE MATERIAL - STATEMENTS BY SENIOR OFFICIALS, WORLDNETS, VOA
SPECIALS, AMPARTS - FULL SCALE EFFORTS WHICH USIA KNOWS HOW TO
ORCHESTRATE SO WELL.


7. IN POLICY TERMS, OUR NEW FOCUS ON GLOBAL ISSUES MAY PROVIDE
THE BEST SUBSTANTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR EMPHASIZING WHAT WE ARE FOR.
OUR AGENDA OF NON-PROLIFERATION, COUNTER-TERRORISM, ARMS CONTROL,
ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, OPEN TRADING SYSTEMS, HUMAN RIGHTS AND
POPULATION CONTROL CUTS ACROSS THE "VELVET CURTAIN" OF
CIVILIZATION AND CULTURES. WE NEED TO CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE OUR
ABILITY TO BUILD BROAD ISSUE-BASED COALITIONS IN INTERNATIONAL
FORUMS RANGING FROM THE UNGA TO THE TROPICAL TIMBER
ORGANIZATION..


8. SOMETIMES WE WILL NEED TO BUILD BRIDGES TO KEEP CHASMS FROM
DEVELOPING ALONG HUNTINGTON'S FAULT LINES. FOR EXAMPLE WE MAY ALL
WONDER ABOUT THE RELEVANCE OF THE NAM IN A MULTI-POLAR WORLD. BUT
THE MOVEMENT EXISTS, AND IF WE WANT TO AVOID A RETURN TO THE
RHETORICAL NORTH-SOUTH WARFARE OF THE 1970'S, WE CANNOT AFFORD TO
TURN OUR BACKS ON THE CURRENT MODERATE LEADERSHIP. WE SHOULD
ENCOURAGE A NORTH-SOUTH DIALOG AND DEAL WITH ISSUES OF LEGITIMATE
CONCERN TO THE DEVELOPING WORLD, AS PRESIDENT CLINTON DID IN HIS
TOKYO BILATERAL WITH SOEHARTO IN JULY. OTHERWISE LEADERSHIP WILL
GRAVITATE TO THE LIKES OF MALAYSIA'S MAHATIR, WHO WILL USE THE
FORUM TO DIVIDE RATHER THAN TO UNIFY.


9. WE ALSO NEED TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO LET CHASMS DEVELOP OVER
HUMAN RIGHTS ISSUES. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT HUMAN RIGHTS SHOULD
BE LESS CENTRAL TO OUR POLICY, OR THAT WE SHOULD NOT PUSH THESE
ISSUES VIGOROUSLY IN OUR BILATERAL DIALOGS. BUT WE NEED TO PAY
CAREFUL ATTENTION TO OTHER ASPECTS OF OUR RELATIONS WITH
COUNTRIES LIKE INDONESIA AND AVOID INDISCRIMINATE PUNITIVE
MEASURES WHICH WILL REDUCE OUR LEVERAGE ON HUMAN RIGHTS WHILE
ADDING FUEL TO THE KULTURKAMPF THEORIES.


10. BECAUSE OF THE SPOTLIGHT ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND BOSNIA, THE
ISSUE OF "THE WEST VERSUS ISLAM" HAS PARTICULAR RESONANCE NOW.
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF JAKARTA, WE NEED TO DO A BETTER JOB OF
EXPLAINING OUR ACTIONS, WHETHER THEY BE AIR STRIKES AGAINST IRAQI
RADAR SITES,RETALIATORY ATTACKS ON AIDID'S THUGS, OR OUR ACTIONS
TO HALT SERB AND CROAT ATROCITIES IN THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. WE
ARE DOOMED TO PLAY CATCH UP ON THESE ISSUES GIVEN THE IMPACT OF
INSTANT TV COVERAGE AND THE NEED FOR OPERATIONAL SECURITY, BUT WE
THINK WE COULD DO BETTER AT EXPLAINING OUR ACTIONS TO FOREIGN
AUDIENCES.


11. WE ALSO NEED TO ORIENT SOME OF OUR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AWAY FROM
A FOCUS ON CRISES SO THAT WE CAN PAY MORE ATTENTION TO OUR
POSITIVE AGENDA OF THINGS WE AGREE ABOUT. FOR EXAMPLE, TO COUNTER
THE "WE VERSUS THEY" MENTALITY, WE SHOULD MAKE MORE OF AN EFFORT
TO DESCRIBE OUR INTERACTION WITH THE OIC, OUR COOPERATIVE
PROGRAMS WITH MUSLIM STATES, AND THE WAY IN WHICH MUSLIMS ARE
INTEGRATED INTO AMERICAN SOCIETY.


12. THESE CONSIDERATIONS HAVE NO DOUBT ALREADY OCCURED TO POLICY
MAKERS IN WASHINGTON, BUT THE NEED FOR CONCERTED ACTION SEEMS
PARTICULARLY URGENT FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE HERE.


BARRY