CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH
-
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL HR
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING
- TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL;
- EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING


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SUMMARY
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1. AT HIS MONTHLY PRESS CONFERENCE PRESIDENT TUDJMAN
SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS EXTENDING UNPROFOR'S
MANDATE. HE EXPLAINED GENERAL BOBETKO'S MEETING WITH
GENERAL MLADIC AS AIMED AT STOPPING ATTACKS ON CROATIA
AND DENYING BELGRADE'S ALLEGATIONS THAT CROATIA HAD
18 OR 19 BRIGADES IN B-H. HE SAID IT WAS GENERAL
MORILLON'S FAULT THAT, CONTRARY TO CROATIA'S
EXPECTATIONS, HVO AND B-H GOV'T FORCE LEADERS HAD NOT
ATTENDED THE TALKS. HE DENIED THAT AN INCREASED ALERT
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STATUS BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS SUGGESTED A GENERAL FEAR
THAT WAR WAS ABOUT TO BREAK OUT AGAIN IN CROATIA. HE
REMAINED TIGHTLIPPED ABOUT HIS WEEKEND TALKS WITH
GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND OWEN. END SUMMARY.

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ON UNPROFOR AND WAR
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.

2. AT HIS DECEMBER 1 PRESS CONFERENCE, PRESIDENT .
TUDJMAN SAID IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS PROLONGATION
OF THE UNPROFOR MANDATE. "WE HAVE PUT FORTH OUR
REQUESTS (TO UNPROFOR). ...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
DISCUSS WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF
UNPROFOR'S MANDATE. IN ANY CASE, CROATIA IS NOT
WILLING TO PROLONG UNPROFOR'S MANDATE WHILE IT IS NOT
FULFILLING ITS TASKS." HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HE HAD
MET CONFIDENTIALLY WITH GENEVA NEGOTIATORS VANCE AND
OWEN IN CROATIA OVER THE NOV 28-29 WEEKEND TO DISCUSS
UNPROFOR AND THE CONTINUING CRISIS IN THE FORMER
YUGOSLAVIA, BUT HE PROVIDED NO DETAILS. LATER, HE
SAID VANCE AND OWEN HAD TOLD THE SERBS IN SECTOR EAST
AND KNIN THAT THE SO-CALLED KRAJINA IS PART OF
CROATIA AND THAT SOLUTIONS TO THE QUESTION OF SERBIAN
MINORITIES MUST BE FOUND WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF
CROATIAN LAW. REPRESENTATIVES OF UNPROFOR, ACCORDING
TO THE PRESIDENT, HAVE CONCLUDED THAT "THE VANCE PLAN
HAS BEEN CALLED INTO QUESTION" BY SERBIAN REFUSAL TO
COOPERATE AND THAT "STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO HAVE
UNPROFOR IMPLEMENT IT."

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3. TUDJMAN WAS ASKED WHETHER AN INCREASED ALERT
STATUS IMPLEMENTED BY SOME CROATIAN FIRMS INDICATED A
WIDESPREAD FEAR THAT WAR WOULD BREAK OUT AGAIN IN
CROATIA. TUDJMAN BLAMED THIS ON THE "OVER-ZEALOUSNESS
OF CERTAIN PEOPLE" WHO HAD LEARNED THAT BOSNIAN SERB


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ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 C-01 DODE-00 CISA-02
DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03
ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02 OMB-01
PA-02 PC-05 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 SCT-03 SDEL-00
SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-01
USIE-00 ASDS-01 FMP-00 RPE-00 /069W
-------------- 823325 041908Z /38
P 031841Z DEC 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2957
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
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COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1179

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 ZAGREB 02592

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY - JACKOVICH
-
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL HR
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES. TUDJMAN SAYS HE IS UNWILLING
- TO EXTEND UNPROFOR WHILE IT IS UNSUCCESSFUL;
- EXPLAINS BOBETKO/MLADIC MEETING

FORCES HAD BEGUN TO MOVE ROCKETS AND FEARED THEY WERE
BEING TARGETTED ON CROATIAN CITIES. TUDJMAN SAID HE
DIDN'T THINK THERE WAS ANY CHANCE THE WAR WOULD START
AGAIN IN CROATIA "UNDER THE PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES,
...REALISTICALLY, THERE ISN'T ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE
RENEWAL OF ANY WAR OPERATIONS IN CROATIA."

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WILL THE BALKAN WAR SPREAD...
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4. TUDJMAN ACKNOWLEDGED THE RISK OF WAR SPREADING
BEYOND THE FORMER YUGOSLAVIA. HE EXPRESSED
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02592 02 OF 02 041906Z
DISAPPOINTMENT THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAD
ALLOWED SERBIAN AGGRESSION TO GO ON FOR TOO LONG.
"OF COURSE, THE WORLD IS ENGAGED A LITTLE BIT, BUT IN
THE SAME WAY IT IS SOMEWHAT LOOKING FOR AN ALIBI,
LIKE WITH HUMANITARIAN AID IN RELATION TO THE MAIN
PROBLEM...AGGRESSION IN (B-H)."

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BIGGER UNPROFOR, AIR STRIKES, CARROT/STICKS
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5. THE PRESIDENT'S PRESCRIPTION FOR RESOLVING THE
CONFLICTS IN CROATIA AND B-H WAS A COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED INTERNATIONAL HELP AND DOMESTIC MEASURES.
HE SAID THE MOST THAT COULD BE EXPECTED FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WAS THE SECURITY COUNCIL'S
SANCTIONING DEPLOYMENT OF A LARGER PEACEKEEPING FORCE
"WITH THE PURPOSE OF PREVENTING FURTHER AGGRESSION,
ALONG WITH THE USE OF AIR FORCES." HE ADDED THAT HE
AGREED WITH THOSE WHO ARGUED THAT AIR STRIKES ON "THE
AGGRESSOR'S VITAL INSTALLATIONS WOULD SUFFICE TO
TERMINATE FURTHER AGGRESSION."


6. TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS TRYING TO RESOLVE ITS
PROBLEMS WITH THE SERBIA MINORITY BY CONSTITUTIONAL
MEANS, BY RESPECTING HUMAN RIGHTS STANDARDS, CREATING
TWO ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRICTS FOR SERBS (GLINA AND
KNIN),AND PASSING AN AMNESTY LAW FOR THOSE NOT
ACCUSED OF WAR CRIMES. THE PRESIDENT SAID THAT, ON
THE OTHER HAND, THE COUNTRY'S NEW ANTI-TERRORIST LAW
WOULD BE USED AGAINST THOSE WHO CONTINUED SUBVERSIVE
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ACTIVITIES DESIGNED TO BRING DOWN THE STATE.

NEITZKE



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