Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
92ZAGREB2522
1992-11-30 09:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:  

CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN

Tags:  PREL MOPS PREF HR BK 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.


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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 01 OF 04 300914Z
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2491
 COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1106
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522 

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE

E.O. 12356: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN
- IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE
- SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE

E.O. 12356: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN
- IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE
- SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. IN A LATE EVENING MEETING NOV 27, SENATOR MOYNIHAN
SHARED WITH PRESIDENT TUDJMAN HIS IMPRESSIONS AFTER
HAVING PERSONALLY VIEWED THE DEVASTATION IN SARAJEVO,
MOSTAR, AND THE DUBROVNIK AREA. THE SENATOR SAID HE
HAD BEEN TOLD BY UNHCR IN SARAJEVO THAT THE CITY IS
DOWN TO ONLY ONE DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY.


2. TUDJMAN SAID SERBIAN EXTREMISTS HAVE CLEARLY
OPTED FOR WAR; SANCTIONS WOULD NOT STOP THEM. THE
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 01 OF 04 300914Z
SERBS WERE COUNTING ON CONTINUED WESTERN DISUNITY
OVER EX-YUGO AND ON RUSSIAN SUPPORT; SEVERAL HUNDRED
RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN
SIDE. HE CALLED FOR SELECTIVE AIR STRIKES ON SERBIAN
MILITARY BASES AND FACTORIES AND NOTED SERB CLAIMS TO
BE ON THE VERGE OF BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES."
TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE ARMS EMBARGO WOULD ONLY
ENSURE THAT THE CARNAGE SPREAD AND LASTED ANOTHER 1-2
YEARS; IT WOULD NOT OVERCOME THE SERBS' MILITARY
SUPERIORITY. ON CROATIA'S WAR-RELATED ECONOMIC
DISPLACEMENT AND REFUGEE BURDEN, TUDJMAN COMMENTED,
"IT'S A MIRACLE WE HAVE SURVIVED ALL OF THIS."

END SUMMARY.

--------------
"YOU ASKED FOR IT|"
--------------


3. SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT HOW DEEPLY
TOUCHED HE WAS BY THE AMOUNT OF DESTRUCTION HE HAD
WITNESSED IN CROATIA AND BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA (B-H).
HE NOTED THAT DUBROVNIK APPEARED BATTERED, ALBEIT
REPAIRABLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE TOWN OF SLANO,
JUST NORTH OF DUBROVNIK, HAD BEEN UTTERLY DESTROYED.
THE ATTACKERS WHO HAD OCCUPIED AND WRECKED THE TOWN

LEFT GRAFFITI ON THE WALLS, IN ENGLISH AND SERBO-
CROATIAN, STATING "YOU ASKED FOR IT|" LIKEWISE,
MOSTAR WAS A DEVASTATED CITY. SERBIAN TACTICS WERE
EVIDENTLY TO SHELL CITIES FROM AFAR, KILL OR STARVE
THE POPULACE, AND ONLY THEN MOVE IN FOR THE CAPTURE.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 01 OF 04 300914Z


4. THE SENATOR SAID IT HAD SURPRISED HIM TO LEARN
THAT SOME 12 YUGOSLAV WARSHIPS HAD STOOD OFF
DUBROVNIK AND BOMBARDED THE CITY. ONE COULD
UNDERSTAND, THE SENATOR SAID, SOME UNRULY ELEMENTS


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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19
L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02
OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10
SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W
-------------- 7FFAAA 301210Z /38
P 300918Z NOV 92 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2852
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2492
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1107

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE

E.O. 12356: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN
- IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE
- SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO

WITH MORTARS TAKING RANDOM SHOTS AT A CITY, BUT THE
ORGANIZATION OF A FLOTILLA TO BOMBARD A CITY WAS AN
ACT FOR WHICH ONLY SENIOR OFFICERS COULD BE
RESPONSIBLE.


5. TUDJMAN SAID HE TOO HAD TOURED THE COASTAL AREA
AND HAD SEEN FIRSTHAND THE SCALE OF DESTRUCTION. HE
POINTED OUT THAT THE DEVASTATION WAS FAR GREATER
SOUTH OF DUBROVNIK, IN THE DIRECTION OF MONTENEGRO.
HE HAD LIVED THROUGH A WORLD WAR, BUT THE BARBARITY
OF ACTION IN THIS CONFLICT WAS UNPRECEDENTED.

--------------
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z
SARAJEVO IMPRESSIONS
--------------


6. SENATOR MOYNIHAN TOLD THE PRESIDENT THAT HE HAD
OVERNIGHTED IN SARAJEVO NOV 24, TOURED THE CITY, MET
WITH PRESIDENT IZETBEGOVIC, AND BEEN BRIEFED BY UNHCR
ON THE PRECARIOUS FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION. HE HAD BEEN
TOLD BY UNHCR THAT SARAJEVO WAS DOWN TO ONLY ONE
DAY'S FOOD SUPPLY; INCOMING FOOD ON CONVOYS AND
RELIEF FLIGHTS IS DISTRIBUTED AND CONSUMED. TUDJMAN
SAID IZETBEGOVIC HAD PROBABLY INFORMED THE SENATOR
THAT SOME 128,000 BOSNIANS HAD BEEN KILLED AND 30,000
GIRLS AND WOMEN RAPED BY SERBIAN FORCES IN B-H. THESE
FIGURES MIGHT, OF COURSE, BE EXAGGERATED, BUT EVEN IF
THE REAL FIGURES WERE ONLY HALF, THE NUMBERS WERE
STILL OUTRAGEOUS.

--------------
ON THE WAR CRIMES COMMISSION
--------------


7. NOTING THAT THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL HAD
ESTABLISHED A WAR CRIMES COMMISSION, THE SENATOR
ASKED THE PRESIDENT WHAT STEPS THAT THE U.S. AND THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD TAKE NEXT. TUDJMAN
SAID BLUNTLY THAT SANCTIONS ALONE WILL NOT STOP
SERBIAN AGGRESSION. SERBIAN POLITICS HAS BECOME
IRRATIONAL. SERBIAN EXTREMISTS FEEL THAT THEY HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE TO CREATE A "GREATER SERBIA" BY WAR
THAN BY OTHER MEANS. THEY CITE THE EXAMPLE OF HOW
SERBIAN-DOMINATED "YUGOSLAVIA" WAS CREATED IN THE
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 02 OF 04 301209Z
AFTERMATH OF WORLD WAR I AND HOW ANOTHER SERBIAN-
DOMINATED SOCIALIST FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA
HAD BEEN CREATED AFTER WORLD WAR II. THESE EXTREMISTS
ARE COUNTING ON THE WAR'S PERPETUATING A POLITICAL
RIFT AMONG EUROPEAN STATES. THIS POLICY DIVISION AND


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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19
L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02
OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10
SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W
-------------- 7FE9A4 300917Z /38
P 300918Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2853
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2493
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1108

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE

E.O. 12356: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN
- IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE
- SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO

LACK OF RESOLVE, COUPLED WITH SUPPORT FROM ORTHODOX-
LEANING RUSSIA, WOULD HELP THEM. THERE ARE CREDIBLE
REPORTS THAT SEVERAL HUNDRED RUSSIAN "VOLUNTEERS" ARE
NOW FIGHTING ON THE SERBIAN SIDE IN B-H.


8. TUDJMAN CALLED FOR THE WEST TO EMPLOY SELECTIVE
AIR STRIKES. WESTERN GROUND FORCES ARE NOT NEEDED.
THE AIR POWER SHOULD BE DIRECTED AGAINST SERBIAN AIR
BASES, MILITARY FACTORIES, ARTILLERY EMPLACEMENTS,
AND OTHER MILITARY SITES. THE SERBS ARE NOW OPENLY
BOASTING ABOUT THEIR MILITARY MIGHT AND THEIR INTENT
TO BEGIN BUILDING "GUIDED MISSILES." SELECTIVE AIR
STRIKES COULD HELP GALVANIZE OPPOSITION TO MILOSEVIC
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z
INSIDE SERBIA, WHERE THERE IS EVIDENT RESISTANCE TO
HIS POLICIES. SOME 100,000 YOUNG MEN ARE REPORTED TO
HAVE EVADED THE SERBIAN DRAFT CALL BECAUSE THEY
OPPOSE THE WAR AND MILOSEVIC'S POLICIES.

-------------- --------------
TUDJMAN: LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO WILL PROLONG B-H WAR
-------------- --------------


9. GENERAL MORILLON, THE UNPROFOR COMMANDER IN
SARAJEVO, HAD TOLD SENATOR MOYNIHAN THAT HE WAS
STRONGLY OPPOSED TO LIFTING OF THE ARMS EMBARGO.
ASKED FOR HIS VIEW, TUDJMAN SAID THAT LIFTING THE
ARMS EMBARGO WOULD MERELY ENSURE THAT THE DEATH AND
DEVASTATION SPREAD AND CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
YEAR OR TWO. THE SERBS ALREADY HAVE SUCH AN
ADVANTAGE IN COMBAT AIRCRAFT, TANKS, AND ARTILLERY
THAT THEIR MILITARY SUPERIORITY WOULD NOT BE
CHALLENGED ANYTIME SOON, EVEN IF ARMS STARTED TO FLOW
TO THEIR OPPONENTS IMMEDIATELY.


10. TUDJMAN SAID THE SOLUTION TO THE B-H CRISIS IS
TO STOP SERBIAN AGGRESSION AND AIR STRIKES OUGHT TO
BE USED TO THAT END. HE SPECULATED THAT B-H MIGHT
HAVE TO BECOME A UN "PROTECTORATE" TO BE SAVED. HE
SAID IT HAD BEEN A MISTAKE FOR THE EC COUNTRIES AND
ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES TO MAKE SO REPETITIVELY
CLEAR AT THE OUTSET OF THE CRISIS THAT THEY WOULD NOT
INTERVENE MILITARILY. THE SERBS HAD SEEN IN THIS
STANCE A VIRTUAL GREEN LIGHT FOR MILITARY ACTION
WITHOUT FEAR OF RETALIATION.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02522 03 OF 04 300917Z
-

-------------- --------------
SERBIAN GOAL WAS TO RE-ESTABLISH COMMUNIST SYSTEM
-------------- --------------


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NNNN

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z
ACTION EUR-01

INFO LOG-00 AID-01 CA-02 CIAE-00 PFIP-01 C-01 DODE-00
CISA-02 DS-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19
L-03 ADS-00 MFLO-03 M-01 NSAE-00 OCS-06 OIC-02
OMB-01 PA-01 PC-01 PM-02 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10
SCT-03 SDEL-00 SNP-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00
TRSE-00 T-01 ASDS-01 FMP-00 /075W
-------------- 7FE9BC 300918Z /38
P 300918Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2854
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
USMISSION GENEVA
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
CONFIDENTIAL


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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2494
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1109

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 04 ZAGREB 02522

SIPDIS


GENEVA FOR USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH; USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE

E.O. 12356: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR MOPS PREF HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL: PRES TUDJMAN TELLS SENATOR MOYNIHAN
- IT'S TIME FOR AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE
- SERBS; CAUTIONS AGAINST LIFTING ARMS EMBARGO



11. JNA/SERBIAN MILITARY AGGRESSION AGAINST CROATIA
LAST YEAR HAD AS ONE OF ITS GOALS THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT
OF THE FORMER COMMUNIST SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORMER
YUGOSLAVIA. A SECONDARY GOAL WAS SERBIAN CONQUEST OF
PARTS OF CROATIAN TERRITORY. SERBIAN MILITARY
STRATEGISTS HAD COUNTED ON SUPPORT FROM SOVIET
MILITARY OFFICERS, INCLUDING MANY OF THOSE WHO
PLOTTED AGAINST GORBACHEV.


12. AT THE START OF THE YUGO-CRISIS, CROATIA'S GOAL
WAS CONFEDERATION. TITO HIMSELF HAD FORESEEN THE
PROBLEMS TO WHICH THE COUNTRY MIGHT OTHERWISE FALL
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02522 04 OF 04 300918Z
PREY IN DESIGNING THE 1974 CONSTITUTION.

-------------- ---
REFUGEES & ECONOMY ARE MAJOR BURDENS FOR CROATIA
-------------- ---


13. TUDJMAN COMMENTED THAT SOME 700-800,000
DISPLACED PERSONS FROM CROATIA AND REFUGEES FROM B-H
ARE PRESENTLY IN CROATIA. THEIR CARE AND FEEDING IS
A MAJOR EXPENSE (NOTE: 20 PERCENT OF THE NATIONAL
BUDGET NOW GOES FOR DIRECT CARE AND FEEDING OF THE
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED.) THIS BURDEN COMPOUNDED THE
IMPORTANT LOSS OF THE FORMER YUGOSLAV MARKET AND THE
WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC DEVASTATION CROATIA HAD SUFFERED
IN THE WAR. "IT'S A MIRACLE THAT WE HAVE SURVIVED
ALL OF THIS," TUDJMAN SAID. HE SAID THAT SUPPORT
FROM THE CROATIAN DIASPORA HAD BEEN CRITICAL IN THE
COUNTRY'S SURVIVAL.


14. TUDJMAN SAID CROATIA IS COUNTING ON U.S. SUPPORT
FOR EARLY ADMISSION TO SUCH LFI'S AS THE IMF AND
WORLD BANK. THE SENATOR ADDED THAT HE WOULD PUT IN A
GOOD WORD FOR THE COUNTRY WITH SENIOR IBRD LEADERSHIP
AND WISHED TUDJMAN AND CROATIA EVERY SUCCESS IN
OVERCOMING ITS ECONOMIC PROBLEMS.


15. THIS CABLE WAS PREPARED AFTER THE CODEL'S
DEPARTURE FROM ZAGREB.

NEITZKE

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