Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
92ZAGREB2392
1992-11-13 16:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Zagreb
Cable title:
CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 131609Z Nov 92 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22// USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5// CTF SIXZERO//N2// CTF SIXONE//N2// CTF SIXTWO//N2// CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC// FOSIF ROTA SP USEC BRUSSELS WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1032
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
REF: A) STATE 366041 (NOTAL)
- B) ZAGREB 1933 (NOTAL)
- C) ZAGREB 1920 (NOTAL)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
REF: A) STATE 366041 (NOTAL)
- B) ZAGREB 1933 (NOTAL)
- C) ZAGREB 1920 (NOTAL)
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. THIS CABLE RESPONDS TO REF A'S REQUEST FOR OUR
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z
CANDID APPRAISAL OF THE REFUGEE SITUATION IN CROATIA.
REF B CONVEYED THE GOC'S LATEST FORMAL POLICY
STATEMENT ON REFUGEES. REF C REPORTED A CONVERSATION
BETWEEN CHARGE AND TUDJMAN SPECIFICALLY ON THIS TOPIC.
--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------
3. CROATIA IS NOW HOST TO AT LEAST 750,000 REFUGEES
AND DISPLACED PERSONS. THE DIRECT DAILY COST TO THE
CROATIAN GOVERNMENT OF SUSTAINING THESE PEOPLE IS
SOME THREE MILLION USD -- AND RISING. THE INDIRECT
COSTS TO THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING SOCIAL
AND HEALTH SERVICES, UTILITY BILLS UNPAID BY FAMILIES
HOSTING REFUGEES, AND VISIBLE DESTRUCTION OF HOTELS
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE BY REFUGEES, ARE INCALCULABLY
GREATER. CROATIA RECEIVES FOOD, CLOTHING, AND OTHER
IN-KIND ASSISTANCE FROM UNHCR, OTHER INTERNATIONAL
BODIES, OTHER GOVERNMENTS, AND PVO'S, BUT IT RECEIVES
NO/NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP OFFSET EVEN THE
DIRECT, THREE MILLION USD PER DAY BURDEN, EXCEPT FOR
SOME VERY RECENT, COMPARATIVELY TINY SUMS FROM A
COUPLE WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND UNHCR. CARING FOR THE
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED ABSORBS SOME TWENTY PERCENT OF
CROATIA'S BUDGET AND CONTRIBUTES HEAVILY TO INFLATION
NOW RUNNING AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF OVER 2,500
PERCE5. THE SOCIAL COST OF THE REFUGEE/DISPLACED
BURDEN -- MEASURED IN LOCAL TENSION LEVELS AND
PALPABLE PUBLIC RESENTMENT OF REFUGEES AS THE CROATS'
LIVING STANDARD PLUMMETS -- IS LARGE AND GROWING.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z
4. NOTWITHSTANDING CROATIA'S HARDER-LINE PUBLIC
POSTURE OR THE FACT THAT CROATIA HAS INSTITUTED
BORDER CONTROLS WITH B-H, IT IS NOT/NOT REFUSING TO
ADMIT B-H REFUGEES. ON AVERAGE, 2,000-3,000 REFUGEES
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A22EC 131916Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2686
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2380
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1033
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
ENTER CROATIA EACH WEEK/WEEK. THIS FIGURE DOES NOT
INCLUDE PROBABLY AN EQUAL NUMBER OF ILLEGAL REFUGEE
ENTRANTS, OR SOME 9,000 WHO FLED TO CROATIA WITH THE
FALL OF BOSANSKI BROD, OR THE SEVERAL THOUSAND WHO
HAVE REACHED CROATIA IN THE WAKE OF JAJCE'S FALL AND
AMONG WHOM TYPHOID HAS NOW BROKEN OUT IN THE ALREADY
TENSE REGION AROUND SPLIT. CROATIAN OFFICIALS ARE
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
LOATH TO TRUMPET THE FACT THAT THIS HEAVY REFUGEE
FLOW CONTINUES -- INDEED, WHAT GETS PUBLICIZED HERE
IS THEIR OCCASIONAL REFUSAL OF ENTRY -- FOR FEAR OF
THE DESTABILIZING IMPACT THIS WOULD HAVE ON ALREADY
STRAINED PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD THE REFUGEES.
5. CROATIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS TELL US
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO TURN BACK BY FORCE OF ARMS
ANTICIPATED HUGE FLOWS OF REFUGEES FROM THE IMPENDING
CALAMITY IN B-H THIS WINTER; PRIVATELY, THEY SAY THEY
EXPECT TO BE CONFRONTED WITH AT LEAST 100,000 TO
300,000 NEW ARRIVALS. AT THE SAME TIME, CROATIAN
OFFICIALS SAY THERE IS ALMOST NO UNUSED HARDENED
SHELTER LEFT, AND CROATIA WILL SIMPLY BE UNABLE TO
HOUSE ANYWHERE NEAR THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES LIKELY
EVEN UNDER "BEST CASE" SCENARIOS. CROATIAN OFFICIALS
ARE ALSO -- HELPLESSLY, THEY ADMIT -- EXAMINING WHAT
THEY CALL "HORROR" SCENARIOS INVOLVING UP TO ONE
MILLION MORE ARRIVALS FROM B-H, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SOCIAL BREAKDOWN IN CROATIA.
6. CROATIA HAD A "GENTLEMAN'S A433.3,5" WITH THE
UNHCR TO MOVE EX-DETAINEES FROM B-H THROUGH THE
KARLOVAC TRANSIT FACILITY WITHIN 15 DAYS. THE WAIT
FOR ALL BUT THE FEW WHO HAVE DEPARTED KARLOVAC HAS
NOW GROWN TO OVER TWO MONTHS. DESPITE LOCAL TENSION
RESULTING FROM THE EXTENDED PRESENCE OF THESE
FREE-TO-ROAM EX-DETAINEES IN WAR-TORN, ECONOMICALLY
DEPRESSED KARLOVAC, THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS JUST
MADE AVAILABLE SOME 500-700 MORE SPACES IN THIS TOWN.
ITS ONGOING EFFORTS TO SECURE MORE SPACE IN OTHER
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
CROATIAN COMMUNITIES, HOWEVER, ARE MEETING STRONG
LOCAL RESISTANCE, INCLUDING THREATS OF PUBLIC
DISORDER FROM AUTHORITIES ALREADY GLUTTED WITH
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS.
.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2325 131918Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2687
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2381
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1034
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
7. COMMENT: ONE DISCUSSES THESE ISSUES WITH
KNOWLEDGEABLE CROATS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF SOME
MUTUALLY-UNDERSTOOD PLAIN TRUTHS: THE REFUGEE
PROBLEM IN B-H IS NOT BEING BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL; IT
IS GROWING. WE ARE NOT GAINING GROUND ON THE
WINTERIZATION PROBLEM IN B-H; WE ARE LOSING GROUND,
AS MORE HOMES ARE DESTROYED EACH DAY. THE REASON
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
THESE PROBLEMS ARE ESCALATING IS NEITHER THE
OCCASIONAL LOCAL FIREFIGHT BETWEEN CROATIAN AND
MUSLIM FORCES NOR BALLYHOOED CROATIAN/SERBIAN
COLLUSION TO "CARVE UP" BOSNIA. REFUGEES ARE BEING
GENERATED, OVERWHELMINGLY, BY THE STILL-UNCHECKED
ETHNIC CLEANSING OF A CONTEMPTUOUSLY ARROGANT BOSNIAN
SERB LEADERSHIP. THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE OF
CROATIA'S DOING WHAT THE WEST SAYS IT WANTS CROATIA
TO DO IN B-H, THAT IS, WITHDRAW MILITARILY, WOULD BE
THE BOSNIAN SERBS' ROLLING UP ANOTHER 20-30 PERCENT
OF B-H TERRITORY AND CROATIA'S BECOMING SWAMPED
OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER HALF MILLION REFUGEES, OR MORE.
A SIMILAR FATE MIGHT ALREADY HAVE BEFALLEN CROATIA
WERE IT IN FACT GUILTY OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H.
DESPITE THE CLAIMS OF VARIOUS WESTERN EDITORIALISTS,
HOWEVER, CROATIA HAS NOT/NOT CLEANSED IN B-H --
EITHER AS A MATTER OF POLICY OR AS A SIGNIFICANTLY
WIDESPREAD, RECURRING PRACTICE ON THE GROUND.
ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF BOSNIAN MUSLIMS, AND EVEN SOME
BOSNIAN SERBS, CONTINUE TO LIVE IN RELATIVE PEACE
WITH THEIR CROATIAN NEIGHBORS IN PARTS OF B-H
DEFENDED BY CROATIAN OR CROATIAN/B-H GOV'T FORCES.
AND LASTLY, CROATIA'S BORDER WITH B-H, DESPITE THE
CURRENT CONTROLS, IS INCOMPARABLY MORE OPEN TO
BOSNIAN REFUGEES THAN THE BORDERS OF ANY OF CROATIA'S
CONCERNED WESTERN NEIGHBORS.
8. COMMENT CONT'D: CROATS ONE SPEAKS WITH ARE
QUIETLY FRUSTRATED AND ANGERED BY THE IMPRESSION
OCCASIONALLY CONVEYED BY WESTERN CAPITALS THAT
BOSNIA'S SYMPTOMS CAN AND MUST BE TREATED -- FOR
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
EXAMPLE, BY INSISTING THAT CROATIA VIRTUALLY THROW
OPEN ITS BORDERS TO ALL COMERS -- WHILE THE BOSNIAN
SERB PLAGUE OF ETHNIC CLEANSING CONTINUES TO SPREAD.
MOREOVER, THE INFORMED POPULACE HERE IS PUZZLED BY
AND RESENTS WHAT APPEARS AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2335 131918Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2688
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2382
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1035
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
WESTERN DIPLOMATIC ENERGY FOCUSSED ON THE SMALL, THUS
FAR DISTRACTING MOVEMENTS OF ESSENTIALLY BIT PLAYERS
IN BELGRADE, WHILE IT IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR TO CROATS
THAT -- IN SERBIA, THE KOSOVO, SECTOR EAST, SECTOR
SOUTH, AND THE BOSNIAN SERB "CORRIDOR" -- MILOSEVIC,
DIRECTLY OR THROUGH HIS JUNIOR PARTNERS IN WAR CRIMES,
STILL RUNS THE SHOW.
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
9. COMMENT CONCLUDED: OPPORTUNISTIC SELF-INTEREST,
GREED, ALONG WITH A LEGITIMATE DESIRE TO PROTECT
BOSNIAN CROATS, WAS AMONG CROATIA'S MOTIVES FOR
INTERVENING MILITARILY IN B-H IN THE FIRST PLACE.
AND THERE REMAINS IN ZAGREB A NEAR-UBIQUITOUS, POTENT
HERCEGOVINIAN ELEMENT WHICH STILL CRAVES ANNEXATION
IN B-H AND DOES NOT WHOLLY TRUST TUDJMAN TO DO THEIR
BIDDING. WE MUST AND WE WILL, THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE CROATS' FEET TO THE FIRE. BUT OUR AND OTHER
WESTERN GOVERNMENTS' EXHORTATIONS TO CROATIA TO ACCEPT
WHAT IS IN FACT AN EVER MORE SOCIALLY AND FINANCIALLY
DESTABILIZING NUMBER OF BOSNIAN REFUGEES -- WHILE
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H AND CROATIA ITSELF
CONTINUES APACE -- ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET WITH GREAT
SYMPATHY. DIRECT WESTERN OR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
ASSISTANCE TO CROATIA TO HELP IT CARRY ITS REFUGEE
BURDEN -- COUPLED WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUBLIC
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THAT BURDEN -- WOULD TAKE MUCH OF
THE STING OUT OF OUR REPEATED APPROACHES.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.
-------------- --------------
CROATIA STILL ACCEPTS HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES PER DAY...
-------------- --------------
10. IN A NOV 11 MEETING, AT WHICH THE CHARGE PRESSED
VICE PREMIER MATE GRANIC ON CROATIAN ADMISION OF
REFUGEES AND EX-DETAINEES, GRANIC INSISTED ON
PROVIDING THE FOLLOWING DETAILS ON CROATIA'S POLICY
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
AND PRACTICE REGARDING B-H REFUGEES AND DISPLACED
CROATS. GRANIC SAID CROATIA STILL LEGALLY ADMITS
HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES EACH DAY. ASIDE FROM REFUGEES
APPLYING INDIVIDUALLY FOR ADMISSION TO CROATIA
ITSELF, ANYONE WITH A PLAUSIBLE DOCUMENT INDICATING
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A233D 131919Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2689
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2383
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1036
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
THEY WILL BE CARED FOR BY A FRIEND OR RELATIVE IN A
THIRD COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO TRANSIT CROATIA. (NOTE:
THE GERMAN EMBASSY SAYS IT PROCESSES AN AVERAGE OF
1,000 SUCH CASES PER WEEK). IN ADDITION, CROATIA
RECENTLY ACCEPTED AN ESTIMATED 9,000 REFUGEES WHEN
BOSANSKI BROD FELL TO SERBIAN FORCES. IT HAS ALSO
ACCEPTED SOME 10-20 PERCENT (LOW THOUSANDS) OF THE
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
REFUGEES FROM SERB-OVERRUN JAJCE, PARTICULARLY THOSE
WHO WERE ILL OR NEEDED MEDICAL TREATMENT (SOME OF
WHOM ARE NOW DIAGNOSED WITH TYPHOID).
-------------- --------------
...REQUIRING CASH OUTLAYS OF THREE MILLION USD PER DAY
-------------- --------------
11. GRANIC ACKNOWLEDGED THAT STATISTICS ARE IMPRECISE
BUT SAID CROATIA NOW CARES FOR AT LEAST 450,000
MAINLY MUSLIM REFUGEES FROM B-H, 35,000 CROATIAN
REFUGEES FROM SERBIA, AND 265,000 DISPLACED CROATS.
GRANIC PROVIDED PER-PERSON-PER-DAY STATISTICS, BROKEN
DOWN BY HOUSING CATEGORY, ON THE DIRECT COST TO THE
GOC OF MAINTAINING THESE PEOPLE. THE COMPLICATED
MATH IN FACT WORKS OUT TO ABOUT 3 MILLION USD PER DAY,
WHICH GOES LARGELY TOWARD TOKEN REIMBURSEMENT FOR
ROOM AND BOARD PROVIDED BY HOTELS. GRANIC SAID THE
GOVERNMENT IS NOW TWO TO THREE MONTHS IN ARREARS ON
THESE DIRECT PAYMENTS.
12. THE AMOUNTS THE HOTELS RECEIVE DO NOT EVEN BEGIN
TO COVER MAINTENANCE, SUPPLIES, AND UTILITIES
EXPENSES, LET ALONE INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION, OR
LOST OPPORTUNITY COSTS (E.G., THERE ARE NOW ONLY 180
AVAILABLE TOURIST/BUSINESS HOTEL ROOMS IN ALL OF
SPLIT). GRANIC SAID THAT THE AVERAGE REFUGEE-HOUSING
TOURIST HOTEL IS RUN DOWN TO THE POINT OF REQUIRING
TOTAL REHABILITATION AFTER ONLY THREE MONTHS.
(NOTE: EMBOFFS CAN ATTEST FIRST-HAND THAT THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE.) MOREOVER, THE GOC PROVIDES
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
THE REFUGEES FREE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND OTHER
SOCIAL SERVICES -- AND ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOW
UNDER SERIOUS STRAIN. GRANIC NOTED, FOR EXAMPLE,
THAT HOSPITAL BIRTHS IN ZAGREB ARE UP OVER 30 PERCENT.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A235B 131920Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2690
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2384
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1037
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
-------------- --------------
...AND OTHER EXPENSES OF SEVERAL MILLION MORE USD/DAY
-------------- --------------
13. MOST FAMILIES WHO HAVE TAKEN IN REFUGEES RECEIVE
SOME IN-KIND SUPPORT FROM HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES BUT
(IN CONTRAST TO FAMILIES HOUSING DISPLACED CROATS)
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
THEY RECEIVE NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. CONSEQUENTLY,
MANY OF THESE HOST FAMILIES HAVE LONG SINCE STOPPED
PAYING FOR ELECTRICITY AND GAS, THE FULL COST OF
WHICH THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS HAD TO PAY. GRANIC
CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE TOWN OF MAKARSKA (POP.
17,000) ON THE ADRIATIC COAST, WHOSE INHABITANTS HAVE
TAKEN IN 20,000 REFUGEES AND 3,000 DISPLACED PERSONS
BUT STOPPED PAYING UTILITY BILLS MONTHS AGO. ONE
RESULT IS THAT THE GOC IS NOW MONTHS BEHIND ON
PAYMENTS FOR ELECTRICITY IMPORTED FROM SLOVENIA.
-------------- --------------
...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED HEAVILY TO HYPER-INFLATION
-------------- --------------
14. PAYMENTS FOR THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED NOW
AMOUNT TO SOME 20 PERCENT OF CROATIA'S NATIONAL
BUDGET. THIS AMOUNT, COMBINED WITH THE COST OF
SUPPORTING 275,000 UNEMPLOYED WORKERS AND 700,000
PENSIONERS (WHO RECEIVE ON AVERAGE LESS THAN
ONE-THIRD OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR REFUGEES IN
HOTELS),HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO A BUDGET DEFICIT
WHICH HAS SPAWNED HYPER-INFLATION. THE AVERAGE RATE
OF INFLATION OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, ANNUALIZED,
COMES TO OVER 2,500 PERCENT. THE GOC HAS RECEIVED
AND EXPRESSED GRATITUDE FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN FOOD, MEDICINE, HYGENE
SUPPLIES, CLOTHES, AND THE LIKE, BUT IT HAS RECEIVED
ONLY TINY AMOUNTS OF AID (LOW MILLIONS) TO HELP OFFSET
ITS DAY-TO-DAY REFUGEE/DISPLACED-RELATED EXPENSES.
CONFIDENTIAL
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
--------------
...AND RISING SOCIAL TENSIONS
--------------
15. GRANIC SAID THERE IS VERY LITTLE UNOCCUPIED
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NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2370 131920Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2691
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2385
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1038
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
WINTERIZED SHELTER OF ANY KIND LEFT IN CROATIA.
70,000 B-H REFUGEES ARE STILL IN HOUSING INADEQUATE
FOR THE COMING WINTER, ALTHOUGH GRANIC SAID THE
CROATS HOPE SOON TO HAVE ALL THE REFUGEES MOVED INTO
SOMETHING BETTER THAN TENTS. (NOTE: TODAY'S PRESS,
HOWEVER, CLAIMS IT WILL BE LATE DECEMBER BEFORE EVEN
THE REFUGEES NOW HERE ARE ALL MOVED OUT OF TENTS.)
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
THE PROBLEM, HOWEVER, GOES BEYOND LIMITED PHYSICAL
CAPACITY, GRANIC EMPHASIZED. LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE
FLATLY REFUSING TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL REFUGEES AND THE
NEAR-CERTAIN HEIGHTENED SOCIAL TENSION THAT WOULD
ACCOMPANY THEIR ARRIVAL.
16. GRANIC SAID THAT CROATIAN OFFICIALS HAVE FOUND
IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE AN ACCEPTABLE SITE
FOR A SECOND TRANSIT CENTER FOR EX-DETAINEES FROM
B-H. WITH SOME 1,500 UNHCR-CARED FOR EX-DETAINEES
FREE TO ROAM IN DEPRESSED, WAR-TORN KARLOVAC,
TENSIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THE TOWNSFOLK ARE RISING.
AS A SOP TO THE KARLOVAC AUTHORITIES, THE GOC HAS HAD
TO BUDGET ADDITIONAL PUBLIC WORKS FOR THE COMMUNITY.
GRANIC HIMSELF WAS FINALLY ABLE IN RECENT DAYS TO
LOCATE SPACE FOR 500-700 MORE EX-DETAINEES IN
KARLOVAC (WHICH APPARENTLY WILL BE USED FOR SOME OF
THE MANJACA EX-DETAINEES EXPECTED IMMINENTLY). BUT
KARLOVAC HAS FLATLY REFUSED TO TAKE ANY MORE
EX-DETAINEES, AS HAVE DJAKOVAC AND VODICE, AMONG
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN APPROACHED. GRANIC
CONFIDED THAT HE NOW AVOIDS IF ALL POSSIBLE VISITING
TOWNS WITH LARGE REFUGEES POPULATIONS, SO OFTEN HAS
HE COME CLOSE TO BEING MOBBED BY IRATE CITIZENS. HE
COMMENTED THAT HE IS CALLED UPON EVERY DAY TO RESOLVE
THREE OR FOUR LOCAL DISPUTES WHERE DISORDER IS
THREATENED BETWEEN REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES.
THE POTENTIAL SOCIAL PROBLEM IS COMPOUNDED BY THE
FACT THAT REFUGEES IN CROATIA ARE NOT SUBJECT TO
CONTROLS ON THEIR MOVEMENT. (ANOTHER OF THE CROATS'
NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS IS A LARGE GROUP OF NEW REFUGEES
CONFIDENTIAL
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
ON THE MOVE INSIDE CROATIA.)
--------------
CROATIA REFUSES TO ABET "ETHNIC CLEANSING"
--------------
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2383 131921Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2692
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2386
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1039
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 08 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
17. GRANIC SAID CROATIAN POLICY ON ADMITTING
ADDITIONAL REFUGEES IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THREE
FACTORS IN ADDITION TO SPACE LIMITATIONS AND THE
DIRECT COSTS INVOLVED:
- -- FIRST AND FOREMOST, CROATIA, LIKE THE UN
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ITSELF, WILL NOT WITTINGLY LEND DE FACTO SUPPORT TO
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING. CROATIA'S PROCLAIMING A
WIDE-OPEN BORDER WOULD RISK SETTING OFF A MASS
MIGRATION OF POTENTIALLY OVER A MILLION PEOPLE.
- -- SECONDLY, ACTIVELY ADMITTING SUBSTANTIAL
NUMBERS OF ADDITIONAL REFUGEES INTO CROATIA COULD
RESULT IN A VIOLENT ERUPTION THAT WOULD TEAR APART
THE FABRIC OF CROATIAN SOCIETY. WITH THAT IN MIND,
THE GOVERNMENT HAS REFRAINED FROM WIDELY PUBLICIZING
THE COST OF MAINTAINING THE REFUGEES FOR FEAR OF
PROVOKING ITS CITIZENS WHO HAVE SEEN THEIR STANDARD
OF LIVING REDUCED BY OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE LAST YEAR
AND A HALF. (NOTE: THE AVERAGE CROAT NOW EARNS LESS
THAN 150 DOLLARS PER MONTH.)
- -- THIRDLY, THE GOC IS DISAPPOINTED BY THE SLOW
RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE APPEAL
TO TAKE EX-DETAINEES TRANSITING KARLOVAC; THEY
ARRIVED UNDER A GENTLEMAN'S AGREEMENT WITH UNHCR
THAT THEY WOULD STAY NO MORE THEN 15 DAYS; MOST OF
THE FIRST GROUP ARE STILL HERE OVER TWO MONTHS LATER.
--------------
BUT CROATIA HAS NOT CLOSED ITS BORDERS
--------------
18. NEVERTHELESS, GRANIC SAID, CROATIA -- UNLIKE
SLOVENIA AND ITS OTHER "WESTERN" NEIGHBORS -- HAS NOT
CLOSED ITS BORDERS. NOR, DESPITE FACING THE PROSPECT
OF A MASS INFLUX IN THE COMING MONTHS, HAS CROATIA
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ANY PLANS TO BLOCK ENTRY OF HUGE GROUPS OF REFUGEES
BY FORCE OF ARMS.
19. ON THIS SAME SUBJECT, CROATIAN ARMY CHIEF OF
STAFF GENERAL TUS TOLD OUR DOD REP NOVEMBER 6 THAT
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NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2395 131922Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2693
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2387
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1040
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 09 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
CROATIA, WHILE LACKING THE MEANS TO CARE FOR A LARGE
NEW FLOW OF REFUGEES, ALSO LACKED THE MEANS TO STOP
THEM EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. TUS WENT ON TO COMPLAIN,
AS OUR DOD REP HAS ALREADY REPORTED, THAT CROATIA IS
REPEATEDLY CHASTISED FOR NOT ACCEPTING MORE REFUGEES
BY COUNTRIES WHICH TAKE FEW OR NO REFUGEES THEMSELVES
AND WHICH REFUSE TO ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSE OF
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
CONTINUING REFUGEE FLOWS. CROATIAN HOTELS, SCHOOLS,
AND HOSPITALS ARE OVERFLOWING WITH REFUGEES, TUS
ADDED, COMMENTING THAT CROATIA MAY FACE A HOPELESS
SITUATION UNLESS THE WORLD TAKES DECISIVE ACTION.
NEITZKE
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
REF: A) STATE 366041 (NOTAL)
- B) ZAGREB 1933 (NOTAL)
- C) ZAGREB 1920 (NOTAL)
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
2. THIS CABLE RESPONDS TO REF A'S REQUEST FOR OUR
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z
CANDID APPRAISAL OF THE REFUGEE SITUATION IN CROATIA.
REF B CONVEYED THE GOC'S LATEST FORMAL POLICY
STATEMENT ON REFUGEES. REF C REPORTED A CONVERSATION
BETWEEN CHARGE AND TUDJMAN SPECIFICALLY ON THIS TOPIC.
--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------
3. CROATIA IS NOW HOST TO AT LEAST 750,000 REFUGEES
AND DISPLACED PERSONS. THE DIRECT DAILY COST TO THE
CROATIAN GOVERNMENT OF SUSTAINING THESE PEOPLE IS
SOME THREE MILLION USD -- AND RISING. THE INDIRECT
COSTS TO THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING SOCIAL
AND HEALTH SERVICES, UTILITY BILLS UNPAID BY FAMILIES
HOSTING REFUGEES, AND VISIBLE DESTRUCTION OF HOTELS
AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE BY REFUGEES, ARE INCALCULABLY
GREATER. CROATIA RECEIVES FOOD, CLOTHING, AND OTHER
IN-KIND ASSISTANCE FROM UNHCR, OTHER INTERNATIONAL
BODIES, OTHER GOVERNMENTS, AND PVO'S, BUT IT RECEIVES
NO/NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO HELP OFFSET EVEN THE
DIRECT, THREE MILLION USD PER DAY BURDEN, EXCEPT FOR
SOME VERY RECENT, COMPARATIVELY TINY SUMS FROM A
COUPLE WESTERN GOVERNMENTS AND UNHCR. CARING FOR THE
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED ABSORBS SOME TWENTY PERCENT OF
CROATIA'S BUDGET AND CONTRIBUTES HEAVILY TO INFLATION
NOW RUNNING AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF OVER 2,500
PERCE5. THE SOCIAL COST OF THE REFUGEE/DISPLACED
BURDEN -- MEASURED IN LOCAL TENSION LEVELS AND
PALPABLE PUBLIC RESENTMENT OF REFUGEES AS THE CROATS'
LIVING STANDARD PLUMMETS -- IS LARGE AND GROWING.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 01 OF 09 131606Z
4. NOTWITHSTANDING CROATIA'S HARDER-LINE PUBLIC
POSTURE OR THE FACT THAT CROATIA HAS INSTITUTED
BORDER CONTROLS WITH B-H, IT IS NOT/NOT REFUSING TO
ADMIT B-H REFUGEES. ON AVERAGE, 2,000-3,000 REFUGEES
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A22EC 131916Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2686
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2380
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1033
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
ENTER CROATIA EACH WEEK/WEEK. THIS FIGURE DOES NOT
INCLUDE PROBABLY AN EQUAL NUMBER OF ILLEGAL REFUGEE
ENTRANTS, OR SOME 9,000 WHO FLED TO CROATIA WITH THE
FALL OF BOSANSKI BROD, OR THE SEVERAL THOUSAND WHO
HAVE REACHED CROATIA IN THE WAKE OF JAJCE'S FALL AND
AMONG WHOM TYPHOID HAS NOW BROKEN OUT IN THE ALREADY
TENSE REGION AROUND SPLIT. CROATIAN OFFICIALS ARE
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
LOATH TO TRUMPET THE FACT THAT THIS HEAVY REFUGEE
FLOW CONTINUES -- INDEED, WHAT GETS PUBLICIZED HERE
IS THEIR OCCASIONAL REFUSAL OF ENTRY -- FOR FEAR OF
THE DESTABILIZING IMPACT THIS WOULD HAVE ON ALREADY
STRAINED PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD THE REFUGEES.
5. CROATIAN MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS TELL US
THERE ARE NO PLANS TO TURN BACK BY FORCE OF ARMS
ANTICIPATED HUGE FLOWS OF REFUGEES FROM THE IMPENDING
CALAMITY IN B-H THIS WINTER; PRIVATELY, THEY SAY THEY
EXPECT TO BE CONFRONTED WITH AT LEAST 100,000 TO
300,000 NEW ARRIVALS. AT THE SAME TIME, CROATIAN
OFFICIALS SAY THERE IS ALMOST NO UNUSED HARDENED
SHELTER LEFT, AND CROATIA WILL SIMPLY BE UNABLE TO
HOUSE ANYWHERE NEAR THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES LIKELY
EVEN UNDER "BEST CASE" SCENARIOS. CROATIAN OFFICIALS
ARE ALSO -- HELPLESSLY, THEY ADMIT -- EXAMINING WHAT
THEY CALL "HORROR" SCENARIOS INVOLVING UP TO ONE
MILLION MORE ARRIVALS FROM B-H, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
SOCIAL BREAKDOWN IN CROATIA.
6. CROATIA HAD A "GENTLEMAN'S A433.3,5" WITH THE
UNHCR TO MOVE EX-DETAINEES FROM B-H THROUGH THE
KARLOVAC TRANSIT FACILITY WITHIN 15 DAYS. THE WAIT
FOR ALL BUT THE FEW WHO HAVE DEPARTED KARLOVAC HAS
NOW GROWN TO OVER TWO MONTHS. DESPITE LOCAL TENSION
RESULTING FROM THE EXTENDED PRESENCE OF THESE
FREE-TO-ROAM EX-DETAINEES IN WAR-TORN, ECONOMICALLY
DEPRESSED KARLOVAC, THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS JUST
MADE AVAILABLE SOME 500-700 MORE SPACES IN THIS TOWN.
ITS ONGOING EFFORTS TO SECURE MORE SPACE IN OTHER
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 02 OF 09 131608Z
CROATIAN COMMUNITIES, HOWEVER, ARE MEETING STRONG
LOCAL RESISTANCE, INCLUDING THREATS OF PUBLIC
DISORDER FROM AUTHORITIES ALREADY GLUTTED WITH
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS.
.
CONFIDENTIAL
NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2325 131918Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2687
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2381
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1034
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
7. COMMENT: ONE DISCUSSES THESE ISSUES WITH
KNOWLEDGEABLE CROATS AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF SOME
MUTUALLY-UNDERSTOOD PLAIN TRUTHS: THE REFUGEE
PROBLEM IN B-H IS NOT BEING BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL; IT
IS GROWING. WE ARE NOT GAINING GROUND ON THE
WINTERIZATION PROBLEM IN B-H; WE ARE LOSING GROUND,
AS MORE HOMES ARE DESTROYED EACH DAY. THE REASON
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
THESE PROBLEMS ARE ESCALATING IS NEITHER THE
OCCASIONAL LOCAL FIREFIGHT BETWEEN CROATIAN AND
MUSLIM FORCES NOR BALLYHOOED CROATIAN/SERBIAN
COLLUSION TO "CARVE UP" BOSNIA. REFUGEES ARE BEING
GENERATED, OVERWHELMINGLY, BY THE STILL-UNCHECKED
ETHNIC CLEANSING OF A CONTEMPTUOUSLY ARROGANT BOSNIAN
SERB LEADERSHIP. THE MOST LIKELY CONSEQUENCE OF
CROATIA'S DOING WHAT THE WEST SAYS IT WANTS CROATIA
TO DO IN B-H, THAT IS, WITHDRAW MILITARILY, WOULD BE
THE BOSNIAN SERBS' ROLLING UP ANOTHER 20-30 PERCENT
OF B-H TERRITORY AND CROATIA'S BECOMING SWAMPED
OVERNIGHT BY ANOTHER HALF MILLION REFUGEES, OR MORE.
A SIMILAR FATE MIGHT ALREADY HAVE BEFALLEN CROATIA
WERE IT IN FACT GUILTY OF ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H.
DESPITE THE CLAIMS OF VARIOUS WESTERN EDITORIALISTS,
HOWEVER, CROATIA HAS NOT/NOT CLEANSED IN B-H --
EITHER AS A MATTER OF POLICY OR AS A SIGNIFICANTLY
WIDESPREAD, RECURRING PRACTICE ON THE GROUND.
ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF BOSNIAN MUSLIMS, AND EVEN SOME
BOSNIAN SERBS, CONTINUE TO LIVE IN RELATIVE PEACE
WITH THEIR CROATIAN NEIGHBORS IN PARTS OF B-H
DEFENDED BY CROATIAN OR CROATIAN/B-H GOV'T FORCES.
AND LASTLY, CROATIA'S BORDER WITH B-H, DESPITE THE
CURRENT CONTROLS, IS INCOMPARABLY MORE OPEN TO
BOSNIAN REFUGEES THAN THE BORDERS OF ANY OF CROATIA'S
CONCERNED WESTERN NEIGHBORS.
8. COMMENT CONT'D: CROATS ONE SPEAKS WITH ARE
QUIETLY FRUSTRATED AND ANGERED BY THE IMPRESSION
OCCASIONALLY CONVEYED BY WESTERN CAPITALS THAT
BOSNIA'S SYMPTOMS CAN AND MUST BE TREATED -- FOR
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 03 OF 09 131610Z
EXAMPLE, BY INSISTING THAT CROATIA VIRTUALLY THROW
OPEN ITS BORDERS TO ALL COMERS -- WHILE THE BOSNIAN
SERB PLAGUE OF ETHNIC CLEANSING CONTINUES TO SPREAD.
MOREOVER, THE INFORMED POPULACE HERE IS PUZZLED BY
AND RESENTS WHAT APPEARS AN INORDINATE AMOUNT OF
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NNNN
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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2335 131918Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2688
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2382
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1035
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
WESTERN DIPLOMATIC ENERGY FOCUSSED ON THE SMALL, THUS
FAR DISTRACTING MOVEMENTS OF ESSENTIALLY BIT PLAYERS
IN BELGRADE, WHILE IT IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR TO CROATS
THAT -- IN SERBIA, THE KOSOVO, SECTOR EAST, SECTOR
SOUTH, AND THE BOSNIAN SERB "CORRIDOR" -- MILOSEVIC,
DIRECTLY OR THROUGH HIS JUNIOR PARTNERS IN WAR CRIMES,
STILL RUNS THE SHOW.
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
9. COMMENT CONCLUDED: OPPORTUNISTIC SELF-INTEREST,
GREED, ALONG WITH A LEGITIMATE DESIRE TO PROTECT
BOSNIAN CROATS, WAS AMONG CROATIA'S MOTIVES FOR
INTERVENING MILITARILY IN B-H IN THE FIRST PLACE.
AND THERE REMAINS IN ZAGREB A NEAR-UBIQUITOUS, POTENT
HERCEGOVINIAN ELEMENT WHICH STILL CRAVES ANNEXATION
IN B-H AND DOES NOT WHOLLY TRUST TUDJMAN TO DO THEIR
BIDDING. WE MUST AND WE WILL, THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE CROATS' FEET TO THE FIRE. BUT OUR AND OTHER
WESTERN GOVERNMENTS' EXHORTATIONS TO CROATIA TO ACCEPT
WHAT IS IN FACT AN EVER MORE SOCIALLY AND FINANCIALLY
DESTABILIZING NUMBER OF BOSNIAN REFUGEES -- WHILE
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING IN B-H AND CROATIA ITSELF
CONTINUES APACE -- ARE UNLIKELY TO MEET WITH GREAT
SYMPATHY. DIRECT WESTERN OR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL
ASSISTANCE TO CROATIA TO HELP IT CARRY ITS REFUGEE
BURDEN -- COUPLED WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUBLIC
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF THAT BURDEN -- WOULD TAKE MUCH OF
THE STING OUT OF OUR REPEATED APPROACHES.
END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.
-------------- --------------
CROATIA STILL ACCEPTS HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES PER DAY...
-------------- --------------
10. IN A NOV 11 MEETING, AT WHICH THE CHARGE PRESSED
VICE PREMIER MATE GRANIC ON CROATIAN ADMISION OF
REFUGEES AND EX-DETAINEES, GRANIC INSISTED ON
PROVIDING THE FOLLOWING DETAILS ON CROATIA'S POLICY
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 04 OF 09 131612Z
AND PRACTICE REGARDING B-H REFUGEES AND DISPLACED
CROATS. GRANIC SAID CROATIA STILL LEGALLY ADMITS
HUNDREDS OF REFUGEES EACH DAY. ASIDE FROM REFUGEES
APPLYING INDIVIDUALLY FOR ADMISSION TO CROATIA
ITSELF, ANYONE WITH A PLAUSIBLE DOCUMENT INDICATING
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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A233D 131919Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2689
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2383
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1036
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
THEY WILL BE CARED FOR BY A FRIEND OR RELATIVE IN A
THIRD COUNTRY IS ALLOWED TO TRANSIT CROATIA. (NOTE:
THE GERMAN EMBASSY SAYS IT PROCESSES AN AVERAGE OF
1,000 SUCH CASES PER WEEK). IN ADDITION, CROATIA
RECENTLY ACCEPTED AN ESTIMATED 9,000 REFUGEES WHEN
BOSANSKI BROD FELL TO SERBIAN FORCES. IT HAS ALSO
ACCEPTED SOME 10-20 PERCENT (LOW THOUSANDS) OF THE
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
REFUGEES FROM SERB-OVERRUN JAJCE, PARTICULARLY THOSE
WHO WERE ILL OR NEEDED MEDICAL TREATMENT (SOME OF
WHOM ARE NOW DIAGNOSED WITH TYPHOID).
-------------- --------------
...REQUIRING CASH OUTLAYS OF THREE MILLION USD PER DAY
-------------- --------------
11. GRANIC ACKNOWLEDGED THAT STATISTICS ARE IMPRECISE
BUT SAID CROATIA NOW CARES FOR AT LEAST 450,000
MAINLY MUSLIM REFUGEES FROM B-H, 35,000 CROATIAN
REFUGEES FROM SERBIA, AND 265,000 DISPLACED CROATS.
GRANIC PROVIDED PER-PERSON-PER-DAY STATISTICS, BROKEN
DOWN BY HOUSING CATEGORY, ON THE DIRECT COST TO THE
GOC OF MAINTAINING THESE PEOPLE. THE COMPLICATED
MATH IN FACT WORKS OUT TO ABOUT 3 MILLION USD PER DAY,
WHICH GOES LARGELY TOWARD TOKEN REIMBURSEMENT FOR
ROOM AND BOARD PROVIDED BY HOTELS. GRANIC SAID THE
GOVERNMENT IS NOW TWO TO THREE MONTHS IN ARREARS ON
THESE DIRECT PAYMENTS.
12. THE AMOUNTS THE HOTELS RECEIVE DO NOT EVEN BEGIN
TO COVER MAINTENANCE, SUPPLIES, AND UTILITIES
EXPENSES, LET ALONE INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION, OR
LOST OPPORTUNITY COSTS (E.G., THERE ARE NOW ONLY 180
AVAILABLE TOURIST/BUSINESS HOTEL ROOMS IN ALL OF
SPLIT). GRANIC SAID THAT THE AVERAGE REFUGEE-HOUSING
TOURIST HOTEL IS RUN DOWN TO THE POINT OF REQUIRING
TOTAL REHABILITATION AFTER ONLY THREE MONTHS.
(NOTE: EMBOFFS CAN ATTEST FIRST-HAND THAT THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE.) MOREOVER, THE GOC PROVIDES
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 05 OF 09 131614Z
THE REFUGEES FREE HEALTH CARE, EDUCATION, AND OTHER
SOCIAL SERVICES -- AND ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOW
UNDER SERIOUS STRAIN. GRANIC NOTED, FOR EXAMPLE,
THAT HOSPITAL BIRTHS IN ZAGREB ARE UP OVER 30 PERCENT.
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NNNN
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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A235B 131920Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2690
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2384
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1037
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 06 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
-------------- --------------
...AND OTHER EXPENSES OF SEVERAL MILLION MORE USD/DAY
-------------- --------------
13. MOST FAMILIES WHO HAVE TAKEN IN REFUGEES RECEIVE
SOME IN-KIND SUPPORT FROM HUMANITARIAN AGENCIES BUT
(IN CONTRAST TO FAMILIES HOUSING DISPLACED CROATS)
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
THEY RECEIVE NO FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. CONSEQUENTLY,
MANY OF THESE HOST FAMILIES HAVE LONG SINCE STOPPED
PAYING FOR ELECTRICITY AND GAS, THE FULL COST OF
WHICH THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS HAD TO PAY. GRANIC
CITED THE EXAMPLE OF THE TOWN OF MAKARSKA (POP.
17,000) ON THE ADRIATIC COAST, WHOSE INHABITANTS HAVE
TAKEN IN 20,000 REFUGEES AND 3,000 DISPLACED PERSONS
BUT STOPPED PAYING UTILITY BILLS MONTHS AGO. ONE
RESULT IS THAT THE GOC IS NOW MONTHS BEHIND ON
PAYMENTS FOR ELECTRICITY IMPORTED FROM SLOVENIA.
-------------- --------------
...WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED HEAVILY TO HYPER-INFLATION
-------------- --------------
14. PAYMENTS FOR THE REFUGEES AND DISPLACED NOW
AMOUNT TO SOME 20 PERCENT OF CROATIA'S NATIONAL
BUDGET. THIS AMOUNT, COMBINED WITH THE COST OF
SUPPORTING 275,000 UNEMPLOYED WORKERS AND 700,000
PENSIONERS (WHO RECEIVE ON AVERAGE LESS THAN
ONE-THIRD OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR REFUGEES IN
HOTELS),HAS CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO A BUDGET DEFICIT
WHICH HAS SPAWNED HYPER-INFLATION. THE AVERAGE RATE
OF INFLATION OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS, ANNUALIZED,
COMES TO OVER 2,500 PERCENT. THE GOC HAS RECEIVED
AND EXPRESSED GRATITUDE FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE IN FOOD, MEDICINE, HYGENE
SUPPLIES, CLOTHES, AND THE LIKE, BUT IT HAS RECEIVED
ONLY TINY AMOUNTS OF AID (LOW MILLIONS) TO HELP OFFSET
ITS DAY-TO-DAY REFUGEE/DISPLACED-RELATED EXPENSES.
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 06 OF 09 131616Z
--------------
...AND RISING SOCIAL TENSIONS
--------------
15. GRANIC SAID THERE IS VERY LITTLE UNOCCUPIED
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NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2370 131920Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2691
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2385
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1038
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 07 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
WINTERIZED SHELTER OF ANY KIND LEFT IN CROATIA.
70,000 B-H REFUGEES ARE STILL IN HOUSING INADEQUATE
FOR THE COMING WINTER, ALTHOUGH GRANIC SAID THE
CROATS HOPE SOON TO HAVE ALL THE REFUGEES MOVED INTO
SOMETHING BETTER THAN TENTS. (NOTE: TODAY'S PRESS,
HOWEVER, CLAIMS IT WILL BE LATE DECEMBER BEFORE EVEN
THE REFUGEES NOW HERE ARE ALL MOVED OUT OF TENTS.)
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
THE PROBLEM, HOWEVER, GOES BEYOND LIMITED PHYSICAL
CAPACITY, GRANIC EMPHASIZED. LOCAL AUTHORITIES ARE
FLATLY REFUSING TO ACCEPT ADDITIONAL REFUGEES AND THE
NEAR-CERTAIN HEIGHTENED SOCIAL TENSION THAT WOULD
ACCOMPANY THEIR ARRIVAL.
16. GRANIC SAID THAT CROATIAN OFFICIALS HAVE FOUND
IT VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE AN ACCEPTABLE SITE
FOR A SECOND TRANSIT CENTER FOR EX-DETAINEES FROM
B-H. WITH SOME 1,500 UNHCR-CARED FOR EX-DETAINEES
FREE TO ROAM IN DEPRESSED, WAR-TORN KARLOVAC,
TENSIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THE TOWNSFOLK ARE RISING.
AS A SOP TO THE KARLOVAC AUTHORITIES, THE GOC HAS HAD
TO BUDGET ADDITIONAL PUBLIC WORKS FOR THE COMMUNITY.
GRANIC HIMSELF WAS FINALLY ABLE IN RECENT DAYS TO
LOCATE SPACE FOR 500-700 MORE EX-DETAINEES IN
KARLOVAC (WHICH APPARENTLY WILL BE USED FOR SOME OF
THE MANJACA EX-DETAINEES EXPECTED IMMINENTLY). BUT
KARLOVAC HAS FLATLY REFUSED TO TAKE ANY MORE
EX-DETAINEES, AS HAVE DJAKOVAC AND VODICE, AMONG
OTHER COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN APPROACHED. GRANIC
CONFIDED THAT HE NOW AVOIDS IF ALL POSSIBLE VISITING
TOWNS WITH LARGE REFUGEES POPULATIONS, SO OFTEN HAS
HE COME CLOSE TO BEING MOBBED BY IRATE CITIZENS. HE
COMMENTED THAT HE IS CALLED UPON EVERY DAY TO RESOLVE
THREE OR FOUR LOCAL DISPUTES WHERE DISORDER IS
THREATENED BETWEEN REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES.
THE POTENTIAL SOCIAL PROBLEM IS COMPOUNDED BY THE
FACT THAT REFUGEES IN CROATIA ARE NOT SUBJECT TO
CONTROLS ON THEIR MOVEMENT. (ANOTHER OF THE CROATS'
NIGHTMARE SCENARIOS IS A LARGE GROUP OF NEW REFUGEES
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 07 OF 09 131617Z
ON THE MOVE INSIDE CROATIA.)
--------------
CROATIA REFUSES TO ABET "ETHNIC CLEANSING"
--------------
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NNNN
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2383 131921Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2692
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2386
CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1039
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 08 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
17. GRANIC SAID CROATIAN POLICY ON ADMITTING
ADDITIONAL REFUGEES IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THREE
FACTORS IN ADDITION TO SPACE LIMITATIONS AND THE
DIRECT COSTS INVOLVED:
- -- FIRST AND FOREMOST, CROATIA, LIKE THE UN
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ITSELF, WILL NOT WITTINGLY LEND DE FACTO SUPPORT TO
SERBIAN ETHNIC CLEANSING. CROATIA'S PROCLAIMING A
WIDE-OPEN BORDER WOULD RISK SETTING OFF A MASS
MIGRATION OF POTENTIALLY OVER A MILLION PEOPLE.
- -- SECONDLY, ACTIVELY ADMITTING SUBSTANTIAL
NUMBERS OF ADDITIONAL REFUGEES INTO CROATIA COULD
RESULT IN A VIOLENT ERUPTION THAT WOULD TEAR APART
THE FABRIC OF CROATIAN SOCIETY. WITH THAT IN MIND,
THE GOVERNMENT HAS REFRAINED FROM WIDELY PUBLICIZING
THE COST OF MAINTAINING THE REFUGEES FOR FEAR OF
PROVOKING ITS CITIZENS WHO HAVE SEEN THEIR STANDARD
OF LIVING REDUCED BY OVER 50 PERCENT IN THE LAST YEAR
AND A HALF. (NOTE: THE AVERAGE CROAT NOW EARNS LESS
THAN 150 DOLLARS PER MONTH.)
- -- THIRDLY, THE GOC IS DISAPPOINTED BY THE SLOW
RESPONSE OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO THE APPEAL
TO TAKE EX-DETAINEES TRANSITING KARLOVAC; THEY
ARRIVED UNDER A GENTLEMAN'S AGREEMENT WITH UNHCR
THAT THEY WOULD STAY NO MORE THEN 15 DAYS; MOST OF
THE FIRST GROUP ARE STILL HERE OVER TWO MONTHS LATER.
--------------
BUT CROATIA HAS NOT CLOSED ITS BORDERS
--------------
18. NEVERTHELESS, GRANIC SAID, CROATIA -- UNLIKE
SLOVENIA AND ITS OTHER "WESTERN" NEIGHBORS -- HAS NOT
CLOSED ITS BORDERS. NOR, DESPITE FACING THE PROSPECT
OF A MASS INFLUX IN THE COMING MONTHS, HAS CROATIA
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PAGE 04 ZAGREB 02392 08 OF 09 131620Z
ANY PLANS TO BLOCK ENTRY OF HUGE GROUPS OF REFUGEES
BY FORCE OF ARMS.
19. ON THIS SAME SUBJECT, CROATIAN ARMY CHIEF OF
STAFF GENERAL TUS TOLD OUR DOD REP NOVEMBER 6 THAT
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NNNN
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PAGE 01 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
ACTION EUR-01
INFO LOG-00 AGRE-00 AID-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 ANHR-01 EB-01
FDRE-00 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 LAB-04
L-03 ADS-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 PA-01 PRS-01 P-01
RP-10 SIL-00 SP-00 SR-00 SSO-00 SS-00 STR-17
TRSE-00 RPE-00 /073W
-------------- 7A2395 131922Z /49
O 131609Z NOV 92
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2693
INFO USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
AMEMBASSY ANKARA
AMEMBASSY ATHENS
AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
AMEMBASSY LONDON
AMEMBASSY MADRID
AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY VIENNA
USMISSION USNATO
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION USVIENNA
USIA WASHDC 2387
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PAGE 02 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
COMSIXTHFLT//N2//
CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON UK//N2/N22//
USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GM//ECJ3/ECJ5//
CTF SIXZERO//N2//
CTF SIXONE//N2//
CTF SIXTWO//N2//
CTF SIXSEVEN//JOCC//
FOSIF ROTA SP
USEC BRUSSELS
WHITE HOUSE WASHDC 1040
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 09 OF 09 ZAGREB 02392
SIPDIS
USVIENNA FOR USDEL CSCE
-
GENEVA FOR RMA AND USDEL ICFY -- JACKOVICH
E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREF PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR PHUM HR BK
SUBJECT: CGYOOL -- APPROACHING THE BREAKING POINT:
- CROATIA AND THE BOSNIAN REFUGEE PROBLEM
CROATIA, WHILE LACKING THE MEANS TO CARE FOR A LARGE
NEW FLOW OF REFUGEES, ALSO LACKED THE MEANS TO STOP
THEM EVEN IF IT WANTED TO. TUS WENT ON TO COMPLAIN,
AS OUR DOD REP HAS ALREADY REPORTED, THAT CROATIA IS
REPEATEDLY CHASTISED FOR NOT ACCEPTING MORE REFUGEES
BY COUNTRIES WHICH TAKE FEW OR NO REFUGEES THEMSELVES
AND WHICH REFUSE TO ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSE OF
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PAGE 03 ZAGREB 02392 09 OF 09 131621Z
CONTINUING REFUGEE FLOWS. CROATIAN HOTELS, SCHOOLS,
AND HOSPITALS ARE OVERFLOWING WITH REFUGEES, TUS
ADDED, COMMENTING THAT CROATIA MAY FACE A HOPELESS
SITUATION UNLESS THE WORLD TAKES DECISIVE ACTION.
NEITZKE
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