BURMA'S LEADER EXUDES CONFIDENCE -- AND A

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 05650


STATE FOR EAP/TB, NEA/INS, HA AND INM/AMB BORG
CINCPAC ALSO FOR FPA

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PHUM CH IN BM
SUBJECT: BURMA'S LEADER EXUDES CONFIDENCE -- AND A
SOFTER LINE


1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT.


2. THE INDIAN AMBASSADOR TOLD CHARGE TODAY THAT HIS
FAREWELL MEETING WITH GENERAL THAN SHWE ON SEPTEMBER
17 HAD REINFORCED HIS SENSE THAT RANGOON'S NEW HEAD
OF STATE IS SOMEWHAT SERIOUS ABOUT LIBERALIZING BURMA
-- AND ENCOUNTERING RESISTENCE ON THIS SCORE FROM
POWERFUL INTELLIGENCE CHIEF KHIN NYUNT. ELABORATING,
HE CHARACTERIZED THAN SHWE AS "ASSIDUOUSLY PEDDLING A
SOFTER LINE" BOTH RE INDIAN-BURMESE RELATIONS AND
INTERNAL POLITICAL EVOLUTION. THE GENERAL ADMITTED,
FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE MILITARY "CANNOT STAY IN POWER
TOO LONG WITHOUT RISKING UNPOPULARITY" AND THAT
BURMA'S "POOR ECONOMY WON'T RECOVER WITHOUT FOREIGN
EXPERTISE AND INPUTS." THAN SHWE ALSO VENTURED THAT
THE "FRACTIONING (SIC: FRAGMENTATION) OF BURMA CAN
ONLY BE AVOIDED IF THE PEOPLE ARE BROUGHT IN AND CAN
SHARE IN THE CAKE."


3. WHILE GENERAL THAN SHWE INTERLARDED THESE
ADMISSIONS WITH MORE CONVENTIONAL GOB RHETORIC ON THE
MILITARY'S CONTINUING ROLE IN KEEPING THE COUNTRY
TOGETHER, HIS "LIBERAL" ADMISSIONS WENT WELL BEYOND
THE NORM -- EVEN FOR PRIVATE TALKS. STRONGMAN KHIN
NYUNT -- WHO SAT IN BUT WAS STUDIOUSLY KEPT OUT OF
THE DISCOURSE BY THAN SHWE -- WAS CLEARLY
DISCOMFORTED BY ALL THIS CANDOR. AT ONE POINT, THE
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF EVEN VIGOROUSLY NODDED HIS HEAD IN
DISAGREEMENT. COMMENT: DURING THAN SHWE'S TALK WITH
THE JAPANESE AMBASSADOR SOME MONTHS BACK, THE
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF TWICE BROKE IN TO DISAGREE WITH
HIS BOSS.


4. DURING THE DISCUSSION OF INDIAN-BURMESE
RELATIONS, THAN SHWE CHARACTERIZED TIES AS "ON THE
IMPROVE" BUT THEN FAULTED NEW DELHI FOR SOURING THE
RELATIONSHIP IN THE FIRST PLACE, CHIEFLY BY ALLOWING
ALL INDIA RADIO TO RUN AMOK. HOWEVER, HE CAREFULLY
BALANCED THIS "HISTORICAL" CRITICISM BY OBSERVING
THAT THE RECENT VISIT TO INDIA BY DEPUTY FOREIGN
MINISTER AND REGIME INSIDER U AYE HAD GONE VERY
WELL. LOOKING AHEAD, THAN SHWE HOPED THAT HIS
FOREIGN MINISTER WOULD SOON GET AN INVITATION TO NEW
DELHI. THE INDIAN AMBASSADOR RESPONDED BY NOTING
THAT FURTHER POLITICAL PROGRESS IN BURMA WOULD EASE
THE WAY FOR HIGH-LEVEL EXCHANGES.


5. TURNING TO THE PRC-BURMA NEXUS, THE INDIAN
AMBASSADOR VOICED HIS GOVERNMENT'S CONCERN THAT CHINA
MAY BE ALLOWED TO BUILD A NAVAL BASE ON THE ANDAMAN
SEA COAST (SEPTEL HAS DETAILS). THAN SHWE BRUSHED
AWAY THIS FEAR, NOTING THAT "BURMA LACKS THE MONEY
FOR ANY JOINT BUILDING OF A NAVAL BASE" AND
"CERTAINLY WON'T ALLOW CHINA OR ANY FOREIGN POWER TO
HAVE A BASE HERE." WHEN THE INDIAN AMBASSADOR
PURSUED PRC-BURMESE TIES FURTHER BY ASKING ABOUT THE
ARMS RELATIONSHIP, THE HEAD OF STATE OBSERVED THAT
"HIS COUNTRY HAD FEW ALTERNATIVES." CLOSING THE
SUBJECT, HE TOLD THE INDIAN AMBASSADOR NOT TO WORRY
AS "BURMA IS ADEQUATELY CONCERNED ABOUT SOVERIGNTY
ISSUES." COMMENT: A WORLD-CLASS UNDERSTATEMENT.


6. GENERAL COMMENT: THAN SHWE CONTINUES TO IMPRESS
US AS MORE INTERESTED IN PURSUING A LIBERAL COURSE
THAN EITHER HIS PREDECESSOR SAW MAUNG OR KHIN NYUNT,
AT LEAST BY BURMESE MILITARY STANDARDS. (A VIEW
SHARED BY OTHER WESTERN EMBASSIES HERE.) THOUGH THIS
HAS NOT LED TO AN OPEN SPLIT BETWEEN BURMA'S TWO TOP
GUNS -- IN PART BECAUSE THE RULING GENERALS PERCEIVE
A STRONG NEED FOR A UNITED PUBLIC FRONT -- THERE ARE
QUASI-OVERT SIGNS OF FRICTION. FOR EXAMPLE, KHIN
NYUNT RECENTLY TOOK THE UNUSUAL STEP OF COMPLAINING
TO THE THAI AMBASSADOR ABOUT THE GOB'S (READ THAN
SHWE'S) ADMISSION TO HOLDING POLITICAL PRISONERS.
THIS ACTION, THE STRONGMAN CLAIMED, WAS CLEARED BY
NEITHER MOFA NOR HIMSELF.


HUDDLE